Global Palm Oil Industry: Opportunities and Challenges
The vegetable oil industry has witnessed significant growth over the past few years on account of a growing population as well as the rising demand for alternative energy sources. Among the various types of vegetable oil, palm oil (including palm kernel) accounted for the largest share of the global production in 2007, followed by soybean and rapeseed oil. Of the available vegetable oils, palm oil is the most productive and has the lowest cost of production, thus accounting for the major share of the global vegetable oil output. In recent years, the rising health concerns have also accelerated the demand for palm oil, particularly in the developed markets.
Palm oil use is broadly separated into food and non-food categories. The product is mainly used as cooking oil but is also increasingly being used in the preparation of other food articles. As a non-food ingredient, the product finds application in the production of cosmetics, toiletries, soaps and detergents. Although, FMCG is the largest market, the utilization of palm oil for the production of biodiesel has been growing steadily. Apart form this, the switch of consumers from loose oil to packed oil, particularly in emerging markets, is also expected to boost the palm oil industry’s growth in the future.
Geographically, Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producers of palm oil, while China and the EU are the largest consumers. In Europe, Germany is the largest producer of palm oil, followed by France and Italy. The emerging markets, like China, India and Indonesia consume more than 80% of palm oil. Due to rising population and increasing income, the emerging markets including China and India are anticipated to record an increase in demand for palm oil.
On the whole, the report analyzes the growth drivers and challenges of the palm oil industry and assesses opportunities available for the players. The report focuses on the production capacity, government initiatives, challenges and future potential of the three large producers of palm oil – Indonesia, Malaysia and Colombia. Further, the report analyzes the top palm oil companies – PT Astra Agro Lestari, IOI Corporation and Wilmar International.
By combining SPSS Inc.’s data integration and analysis capabilities with our relevant findings, we have predicted the future growth of the industry. We employed various significant variables that have an impact on this industry and created regression models with SPSS Base to determine the future direction of the industry. Before deploying the regression model, the relationship between several independent or predictor variables and the dependent variable was analyzed using standard SPSS output, including charts, tables and tests.
Palm oil use is broadly separated into food and non-food categories. The product is mainly used as cooking oil but is also increasingly being used in the preparation of other food articles. As a non-food ingredient, the product finds application in the production of cosmetics, toiletries, soaps and detergents. Although, FMCG is the largest market, the utilization of palm oil for the production of biodiesel has been growing steadily. Apart form this, the switch of consumers from loose oil to packed oil, particularly in emerging markets, is also expected to boost the palm oil industry’s growth in the future.
Geographically, Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producers of palm oil, while China and the EU are the largest consumers. In Europe, Germany is the largest producer of palm oil, followed by France and Italy. The emerging markets, like China, India and Indonesia consume more than 80% of palm oil. Due to rising population and increasing income, the emerging markets including China and India are anticipated to record an increase in demand for palm oil.
On the whole, the report analyzes the growth drivers and challenges of the palm oil industry and assesses opportunities available for the players. The report focuses on the production capacity, government initiatives, challenges and future potential of the three large producers of palm oil – Indonesia, Malaysia and Colombia. Further, the report analyzes the top palm oil companies – PT Astra Agro Lestari, IOI Corporation and Wilmar International.
By combining SPSS Inc.’s data integration and analysis capabilities with our relevant findings, we have predicted the future growth of the industry. We employed various significant variables that have an impact on this industry and created regression models with SPSS Base to determine the future direction of the industry. Before deploying the regression model, the relationship between several independent or predictor variables and the dependent variable was analyzed using standard SPSS output, including charts, tables and tests.
1. GLOBAL VEGETABLE OIL MARKET
2. PALM OIL MARKET: AN OVERVIEW
2.1 Introduction to Palm Oil
2.2 Value Chain Analysis
2.3 Market Overview
2.3.1 Production & Exports
2.2.2 Consumption & Imports
2.4 Indonesian Palm Oil Market
2.5 Malaysian Palm Oil Market
2.6 Colombian Palm Oil Market
3. GROWTH DRIVERS
Demand from Emerging Markets
Increased Usage in Developed Markets
Competitive Advantage over Other Vegetable Oils
Growing Health Concern (Removal of TFA)
4. MARKET CHALLENGES
Limited Scope for Expanding Palm Areas
Fertilizer Costs
Demand for Sustainable Palm Oil
5. PALM OIL BIO-DIESEL - GROWTH OPPORTUNITY
6. COMPANY PROFILES
6.1 PT Astra Agro
6.1.1 Company Description
6.1.2 Sales Analysis
6.1.3 Business Developments
6.2 Wilmar International
6.2.1 Company Description
6.2.2 Sales Analysis
6.2.3 Business Developments
6.3 IOI Corporation
6.3.1 Company Description
6.3.2 Sales Analysis
6.3.3 Business Developments
7. INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
7.1 Market Forecast
7.2 Forecast Methodology
7.2.1 Independent Variables
7.2.2 Correlation (Dependent & Independent Variables)
7.2.3 Regression Analysis
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1 Global Vegetable Oil Production: 2001 – 2008
Figure 1.2 Global Vegetable Oil Production: Share by Types (2007)
Figure 1.3 Global Vegetable Oil Market; Actual & Forecasted Growth: (1996-2005) & (2006-2015E)
Figure 2.1 Palm Oil Value Chain
Figure 2.2 Global Palm Oil Production: 2002 – 2008E
Figure 2.3 Global Palm Oil Plantation (Million Ha): 1999 – 2008E
Figure 2.4 Major Producers of Palm Oil: Geographical Segmentation (2007)
Figure 2.5 Major Consumers of Palm Oil: Geographical Segmentation (2007)
Figure 2.6 Indonesia: Palm Oil Area & Production (2002 - 2009E)
Figure 2.7 Indonesia Palm Oil Production: Regional Segmentation (2007)
Figure 2.8 Indonesia: Annual Palm Area Growth (2000 – 2009)
Figure 2.9 Indonesia: Palm Area Growth by Owner (2008)
Figure 2.9 Indonesia: Palm Area by Owner (2008)
Figure 2.10 Malaysia CPO Production: 2007 – 2008
Figure 2.11 Malaysia Palm Area Growth: 2007- 2008
Figure 2.12 Malaysia Total Exports of Palm Oil Products: 2007 – 2008
Figure 2.13 Malaysia Total Exports (Tonnes) of Biodiesel: 2007 – 2008
Figure 2.14 Colombia: Palm Oil Production (2002 - 2007)
Figure 2.15 Colombia Palm Oil Production: Regional Segmentation
Figure 3.1 Emerging Markets: Palm Oil Consumption (2007/8E)
Figure 3.2 Emerging Countries GDP Per Capita (US$): 2007
Figure 3.3 Vegetable Oil: Average Oil Yield (2007)
Figure 3.4 Planted Crop Area (2007)
Figure 3.5 Production of Major Vegetable Oil (2007)
Figure 4.1 Annual Oil Consumption (Excluding Bio-fuel): Actual & Forecasted
Figure 4.2 Fertilizer Costs as a (%) of Estate (Variable) Costs (2006/7 – 2008/9E)
Figure 5.1 Global Bio-diesel Production; 2005-2010E
Figure 5.2 Share of Inputs in Global Bio-diesel Production; 2010E
Figure 6.1 PT Astra Agro: Revenue Growth (2005 - 2008)
Figure 6.2 PT Astra Agro: Revenue by Segment (2008)
Figure 6.3 Wilmar International: Revenue Growth (2005 - 2008)
Figure 6.4 Wilmar International: Revenue by Business Segments (2008)
Figure 6.5 IOI Corporation: Revenue Growth (2005 - 2008)
Figure 6.6 IOI Corporation, Revenue by Business Segments (2008)
Figure 6.7 IOI Corporation: Total Oil Palm Area by Age (2008)
Figure 7.1 Global Palm Oil Production: Growth Forecast (2009 - 2011F)
Figure 1.1 Global Vegetable Oil Production: 2001 – 2008
Figure 1.2 Global Vegetable Oil Production: Share by Types (2007)
Figure 1.3 Global Vegetable Oil Market; Actual & Forecasted Growth: (1996-2005) & (2006-2015E)
Figure 2.1 Palm Oil Value Chain
Figure 2.2 Global Palm Oil Production: 2002 – 2008E
Figure 2.3 Global Palm Oil Plantation (Million Ha): 1999 – 2008E
Figure 2.4 Major Producers of Palm Oil: Geographical Segmentation (2007)
Figure 2.5 Major Consumers of Palm Oil: Geographical Segmentation (2007)
Figure 2.6 Indonesia: Palm Oil Area & Production (2002 - 2009E)
Figure 2.7 Indonesia Palm Oil Production: Regional Segmentation (2007)
Figure 2.8 Indonesia: Annual Palm Area Growth (2000 – 2009)
Figure 2.9 Indonesia: Palm Area Growth by Owner (2008)
Figure 2.9 Indonesia: Palm Area by Owner (2008)
Figure 2.10 Malaysia CPO Production: 2007 – 2008
Figure 2.11 Malaysia Palm Area Growth: 2007- 2008
Figure 2.12 Malaysia Total Exports of Palm Oil Products: 2007 – 2008
Figure 2.13 Malaysia Total Exports (Tonnes) of Biodiesel: 2007 – 2008
Figure 2.14 Colombia: Palm Oil Production (2002 - 2007)
Figure 2.15 Colombia Palm Oil Production: Regional Segmentation
Figure 3.1 Emerging Markets: Palm Oil Consumption (2007/8E)
Figure 3.2 Emerging Countries GDP Per Capita (US$): 2007
Figure 3.3 Vegetable Oil: Average Oil Yield (2007)
Figure 3.4 Planted Crop Area (2007)
Figure 3.5 Production of Major Vegetable Oil (2007)
Figure 4.1 Annual Oil Consumption (Excluding Bio-fuel): Actual & Forecasted
Figure 4.2 Fertilizer Costs as a (%) of Estate (Variable) Costs (2006/7 – 2008/9E)
Figure 5.1 Global Bio-diesel Production; 2005-2010E
Figure 5.2 Share of Inputs in Global Bio-diesel Production; 2010E
Figure 6.1 PT Astra Agro: Revenue Growth (2005 - 2008)
Figure 6.2 PT Astra Agro: Revenue by Segment (2008)
Figure 6.3 Wilmar International: Revenue Growth (2005 - 2008)
Figure 6.4 Wilmar International: Revenue by Business Segments (2008)
Figure 6.5 IOI Corporation: Revenue Growth (2005 - 2008)
Figure 6.6 IOI Corporation, Revenue by Business Segments (2008)
Figure 6.7 IOI Corporation: Total Oil Palm Area by Age (2008)
Figure 7.1 Global Palm Oil Production: Growth Forecast (2009 - 2011F)
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1 World Major Producers of Palm Oil: 2002 – 2007 (‘000 Tonnes)
Table 2.2 Major Exporters of Palm Oil: 2002 – 2007 (‘000 Tonnes)
Table 2.3 Major Importers of Palm Oil: 2002 – 2007 (‘000 Tonnes)
Table 2.4 Indonesia CPO Production: Actual & Estimated (2005 & 2010F)
Table 2.5 Malaysia Palm Oil Production; By Segments: 2007 – 2008
Table 2.6 Malaysia Palm Crop Output Yield: 2007 – 2008
Table 3.1 Consumption Growth (MT): Actual & Estimated
Table 3.2 Consumption Growth (MT) of Palm Oil (Developed Countries): Actual & Estimated
Table 3.3 Vegetable Oils Production (MT)
Table 4.1 Palm Oil Production (MT): Actual & Forecasted (2002/3 – 2007-8E)
Table 4.2 Estate Costs for Larger Producers (Costs are up >40% in Under 12 Months)
Table 5.1 Bio-fuel Policies in Key Regions
Table 5.2 Estimated Cost of Producing Malaysian Palm Bio-Diesel for Export (2007)
Table 6.1 PT Astra Agro: Plantation Areas in Production (March 31st, 2009)
Table 6.2 Wilmar International: Plantation Age Profile (December 31st, 2008)
Table 6.3 IOI Corporation: Plantation Area (2008)
Table 7.1 Dependent & Independent Variables (1998 – 2008)
Table 7.2 Correlation Analysis
Table 7.3 Model Summary – Coefficient of Determination
Table 7.4 Regression Coefficients
Table 2.1 World Major Producers of Palm Oil: 2002 – 2007 (‘000 Tonnes)
Table 2.2 Major Exporters of Palm Oil: 2002 – 2007 (‘000 Tonnes)
Table 2.3 Major Importers of Palm Oil: 2002 – 2007 (‘000 Tonnes)
Table 2.4 Indonesia CPO Production: Actual & Estimated (2005 & 2010F)
Table 2.5 Malaysia Palm Oil Production; By Segments: 2007 – 2008
Table 2.6 Malaysia Palm Crop Output Yield: 2007 – 2008
Table 3.1 Consumption Growth (MT): Actual & Estimated
Table 3.2 Consumption Growth (MT) of Palm Oil (Developed Countries): Actual & Estimated
Table 3.3 Vegetable Oils Production (MT)
Table 4.1 Palm Oil Production (MT): Actual & Forecasted (2002/3 – 2007-8E)
Table 4.2 Estate Costs for Larger Producers (Costs are up >40% in Under 12 Months)
Table 5.1 Bio-fuel Policies in Key Regions
Table 5.2 Estimated Cost of Producing Malaysian Palm Bio-Diesel for Export (2007)
Table 6.1 PT Astra Agro: Plantation Areas in Production (March 31st, 2009)
Table 6.2 Wilmar International: Plantation Age Profile (December 31st, 2008)
Table 6.3 IOI Corporation: Plantation Area (2008)
Table 7.1 Dependent & Independent Variables (1998 – 2008)
Table 7.2 Correlation Analysis
Table 7.3 Model Summary – Coefficient of Determination
Table 7.4 Regression Coefficients
