Analysis and Forecast on China Vegoils & Oilseeds Industry (2015-2016)

June 2016 | 74 pages | ID: A6312C79723EN
Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Co., Ltd

Abstracts

Based on detailed and accurate data, this report will analyze the changes in China vegetable oil industry in 2015 and make forecast on the 2016 development from the angles of production, processing, consumption, trade, etc.

Research Background

In 2015, China vegetable oil industry mainly showed the following characteristics:

1 Domestic oilseeds output continued to decline, while imports increased sharply and sufficient vegetable oil supply:

In 2015, the domestic output of oilseeds continued to decline while oil and oilseeds imports increased largely, especially the soybean imports reached about 79 million tons. The market demand for vegetable oil did not show obvious increase and is estimated to be around 30 million tons, but the supply amounted to over 32 million tons.

2 Overcapacity in oilseeds crushing and serious losses; more small and medium-sized plants shut down or stopped production; industry structure adjustment and integration accelerated:

The daily soybean crushing capacity reached 460,000 tons, which is far higher than the real market demand. In recent years, soybean crushing has been suffering huge losses; funding pressure and small and medium-size private enterprises’ financial pressure exists over the whole industry; more and more plants shut down or stopped production.

In 2015, the rapeseed crushing capacity in south China exceeded 6.3 million tons, but both the planting acreage and output declined in producing areas, and domestic rapeseed processing industry has been speeding up integration.

At the same time, the market has been expanding demand for minority oils; the social funds have been entering the industry; the planting acreage and production capacity of minority oils will show great development in the next few years.

3 In the future, China vegetable oil processing industry will present the following trends:
  (1) Industry concentration ratio and scale to further improve;
  (2) Soybean and rapeseed crushing industry integration to speed up, minority oils to become the new investment direction;
  (3) The simply oilseed crushing obtains low profits or even makes serious losses, so deep processing, packaging, warehousing and logistics will become the requisite competition ability;
  (4) The brand construction and marketing will be the key of enterprises’ future development and expansion.

Based on detailed and accurate data, this report will analyze the changes in China vegetable oil industry in 2015 and make forecast on the 2016 development from the angles of production, processing, consumption, trade, etc.

Contents

PART ONE: CHINA VEGETABLE OIL & OILSEED INDUSTRY POLICY AND ANALYSIS

1.1 Soybean Target Price Subsidy Policy
  1.1.1 Implementation of Soybean Target Price Subsidy Policy
  1.1.2 Target Price Policy Impact on Soybean Production
1.2 Rapeseed Temporary Reserve Policy
  1.2.1 Temporary Reserve Policy Cancelled in 2015, Limited Subsidies from Local Government
  1.2.2 Temporary Reserved Rapeseed Oil to Be Released in 2016
1.3 Other Policies and Their Impacts

PART TWO: 2015 CHINA SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS & 2016 FORECAST

2.1 China Soybean Output Continued to Shrink in 2015
  2.1.1 Soybean Planting Acreage Estimated to Down to around 5.6 Million Ha
  2.1.2 Soybean Output Estimated to Down to 9.8 Million Tons
  2.1.3 Soybean Farming Margin Low in Producing Area
2.2 Soybean Imports Up Largely While Soybean Oil Imports Shrinked
  2.2.1 Soybean Import Cost Down Sharply, Import Volume Continued to Increase in 2015
  2.2.2 Analysis of Major Soybean Importers
  2.2.3 Both Soybean Oil Import Volume and Price Down in 2015
  2.2.4 Analysis of Major Soybean Oil Importers
2.3 Analysis of Soybean Crushing Industry
  2.3.1 Soybean Crushing Capacity Increase Slowed Down, Refining and Packaging Capability Improved
  2.3.2 Soybean Crushing Volume Up to 72 Million Tons, Soybean Oil Over 14 Million Tons
  2.3.3 Analysis of Soybean Crushing Capacity Distribution and Major Enterprises
2.4 Soybean Crushing Margin
  2.4.1 Soybean Import Cost Down Sharply
  2.4.2 Soybean Oil Price Down with Fluctuations Due to Continuous Oversupply
  2.4.3 Huge Supply Led to Soybean Meal Price Down to Record Low
  2.4.4 Serious Losses in Soybean Crushing Due to Soybean Products Prices Decrease
2.5 Analysis and Forecast on Soybean Oil Supply-Demand
  2.5.1 Domestic Soybean Output Estimated to Down to 9.5 Million Tons, Imports to Exceed 79 Million Tons
  2.5.2 High Operation Rate and Soybean Oil Output More than 14 Million Tons
  2.5.3 Soybean Oil Consumption and Market Share Increased
  2.5.4 High Soybean Inventory and Oversupply of Soybean Oil
2.6 Forecast on Soybean and Its Products Market in 2015/16
  2.6.1 Soybean Production to Continue to Shrink
  2.6.2 Soybean Oil Imports (including soybean imports converted into soybean oil imports) Increase to Slow Down
  2.6.3 Soybean Crushing Industry Integration to Speed Up
  2.6.4 Continuous Low Prices of Soybean and Its Products Due to Sufficient Supply and Slowly Consumption Increase
  2.6.5 Soybean and Soybean Oil Supply-Demand Balance Sheet

PART THREE: 2015 CHINA RAPESEED OIL SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS & 2016 FORECAST

3.1 Rapeseed Planting Acreage and Production Declined Sharply
  3.1.1 2015 Rapeseed Acreage Estimated to Be Around 6 Million Ha
  3.1.2 2015 Rapeseed Output Estimated to Be Around 10 Million Tons
  3.1.3 Rapeseed Farming Margin Decrease Due to Purchase Price Down
3.2 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Imports
  3.2.1 Both Rapeseed Import Volume and Price Down in 2015
  3.2.2 Analysis of Major Rapeseed Importers
  3.2.3 Rapeseed Oil Import Volume and Price Significantly Decreased
  3.2.4 Analysis of Major Rapeseed Oil Importers
3.3 Analysis of Rapeseed Crushing Industry in 2015
  3.3.1 Rapeseed Crushing Capacity and Volume Up Sharply in South China
  3.3.2 Rapeseed Crushing Volume Up to Around 15 Million Tons, Rapeseed Oil Output Nearly 6 Million Tons
  3.3.3 Distribution of Rapeseed Crushing Capacity and Analysis of Main Producers
3.4 Changes in Rapeseed Crushing Margin in 2015
  3.4.1 Domestic and Import Rapeseed Prices Both Down
  3.4.2 Rapeseed Oil Price Continued to Fall Due to Vegetable Oil Oversupply
  3.4.3 Rapeseed Meal Price Fell to Low Level as Soybean Meal Replacing Rapeseed Meal in Large Amount
  3.4.4 Good Imported Rapeseed Crushing Margin from March to July, Then Long-term Losses
3.5 Analysis and Forecast of Rapeseed Oil Supply-Demand
  3.5.1 Domestic Rapeseed Supply Lower than 10 Million Tons, Imports About 4.5 Million Tons
  3.5.2 High Operation Rate of Crushing Plants, Rapeseed Oil Output Over 6 Million Tons
  3.5.3 Slow Rapeseed Consumption Increase and Obvious Regional Characteristics
  3.5.4 High Rapeseed Import Made up for Domestic Output Decline
3.6 Forecast on Rapeseed and Its Products Market in 2015/16
  3.6.1 Rapeseed Planting Acreage to Shrink in 2016
  3.6.2 2016 Rapeseed Oil Imports to Grow for Domestic Output Decrease
  3.6.3 Rapeseed Crushing Capacity to Increase Significantly in South China, Integration to Speed Up in Main Producing Areas
  3.6.4 2016 Rapeseed and Its Products Prices to Fall with Fluctuations
  3.6.5 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Supply-Demand Balance Sheet

PART FOUR: 2015 CHINA PALM OIL SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS & 2016 FORECAST

4.1 2015 Palm Oil Import
  4.1.1 Palm Oil Imports Estimated to Slightly Increase to 5.5 Million Tons
  4.1.2 Palm Oil Import Cost (CIF) Fell Sharply
  4.1.3 Imports Concentrated in Liquid Palm Oils
  4.1.4 Major Palm Oil Importers
4.2 Analysis of Palm Oil Processing Industry and Major Processing Enterprises
  4.2.1 Serious Losses Resulted in Some Small and Medium-Sized Company Exiting the Industry
  4.2.2 Analysis of Main Enterprises
4.3 Changes in 2015 Palm Oil Market
  4.3.1 Palm Oil Inventory Down Greatly from 2014
  4.3.2 Continuous Decrease of Palm Oil Price for Oversupply
4.4 Forecast on 2015/16 Palm Oil Market
  4.4.1 Palm Oil Price to Experience Big Changes for Weather Influences
  4.4.2 Weak Domestic Demand, 2016 Imports to Remain Around 5.5 Million Tons
  4.4.3 Palm Oil Price to Remain on Low Level in 2016

PART FIVE: 2015 CHINA OTHER OIL & OILSEED INDUSTRY ANALYSIS & 2016 FORECAST

5.1 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Peanut Oil Industry
  5.1.1 Price Increase Improved Farmers’ Enthusiasm, Peanut Planting Acreage Increased Slightly
  5.1.2 Peanut Exports Further Decrease While Peanut Oil Imports Continued to Increase
  5.1.3 Both Prices of Peanut and Peanut Oil Increased and Remained on High Level, But Crushing Margin Down
  5.1.4 Peanut Crushing Capacity Concentration Further Improved, and Luhua Group Speeded Up Business Expansion
  5.1.5 Relatively High Peanut Oil Demand Supported High Price
5.2 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Cottonseed Oil Industry
  5.2.1 Cottonseed Supply Declined Due to Planting Area Shrink
  5.2.2 Both Cottonseed and Cottonseed Oil Prices Down Due to Weak Demand
  5.2.3 Tight Balance Between Cottonseed and Cottonseed Oil Supply and Demand
5.3 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Sunflower Oil Industry
  5.3.1 Sunflower Planting Area Increased Slightly
  5.3.2 Sunflower Seed Exports and Sunflower Oil Imports Both Increased Significantly
5.4 Analysis and Forecast on China’s Sesame Oil Industry
  5.4.1 Sesame Planting Area Continued to Decrease
  5.4.2 Sesame Import Price Down and Import Volume Up

PART SIX: 2015 CHINA’S VEGOIL SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS & 2016 FORECAST

6.1 Vegetable oil Supply in China
  6.1.1 Vegetable Oil Output by Domestic Oilseeds Continued to Shrink
  6.1.2 Vegetable Oil (including oil converted from oilseeds) Imports Up
  6.1.3 Over 70% Vegetable Oil to Be Supplied by Import
6.2 Vegetable oil Consumption in China
  6.2.1 Sufficient Vegetable Oil Supply Globally, Vegetable Oil Prices Retained Low
  6.2.2 Vegetable Oil Consumption Increased Slowed Down
  6.2.3 Vegetable Oil Consumption Structure Changed, Minority Oils Demand Increased
6.3 Forecast on 2015/16 China Vegetable Oil Market
  6.3.1 Vegetable Oil Imports to Increase, Mainly Oilseeds Imports
  6.3.2 China Vegetable Oil Consumption to Reach Saturation, Consumption Structure Adjustment to Continue
  6.3.3 Analysis and Forecast on China Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand

List Of Figures

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1, Changes in China Soybean Production, 1979-2015
Figure 2, Changes in Soybean Oil Imports (Including Soybean Imports Converted into Soybean Oil Imports), 2000-2015
Figure 3, Changes in Soybean Imports, 2000-2015
Figure 4, Changes in Soybean Oil Imports, 2000-2015
Figure 5, Soybean Oil Imports by Original Country, 2012-2015
Figure 6, China Soybean Crushing Capacity, 2000-2016
Figure 7, Changes in China Soybean Oil Output, 2000-2016
Figure 8, Average Price of Grade 4 Soy Oil in Major Producing and Purchasing Areas, 2012-2015
Figure 9, Changes in China Rapeseed Output, 1979-2015
Figure 10, Changes in Rapeseed Oil Imports (Including Contain Rapeseed Imports Converted into Rapeseed Oil Imports), 2000-2015
Figure 11, Changes in Rapeseed Imports, 2000-2015
Figure 12, Changes in Rapeseed Oil Imports, 2000-2015
Figure 13, Rapeseed Oil Imports by Original Country, 2012-2015
Figure 14, China Rapeseed Crushing Capacity, 2000-2016
Figure 15, Changes in China Rapeseed Oil Output, 2000-2016
Figure 16, Average Price of Grade 4 Rapeseed Oil, 2012-2015
Figure 17, Palm Oil Imports by Original Country, 2000-2015
Figure 18, Palm Oil Import Price by Month, 2012-2015
Figure 19, Changes in China Peanut Output, 1979-2015
Figure 20, Average Price of First Grade Peanut Oil, 2012-2015
Figure 21, Changes in China Cottonseed Output, 1979-2015
Figure 22, Changes in China Sunflower Seed Output, 1979-2015
Figure 23, Changes in China Sesame Output, 1979-2015
Figure 24, Changes in China Vegetable Oil Output, 2000-2016
Figure 25, Vegetable Oil Output by Domestic Oilseeds, 2000-2015
Figure 26, Vegetable Oil Product Structure in 2015
Figure 27, Vegetable Oil Imports, 2000-2015
Figure 28, Vegetable Oil Import Structure in 2015
Figure 29, Vegetable Oil Consumption, 2000-2015
Figure 30, Vegetable Oil Consumption Structure in 2015
Map 1, Distribution of Soybean Crushing Enterprises in China
Map 2, Distribution of Rapeseed Crushing Enterprises in China
Map 3, Distribution of Big Vegetable Oil Enterprises in China

List Of Tables

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1, China Oil & Oilseeds Import Structure, 2012-2015
Table 2, Major Soybean Importers in 2015
Table 3, Major Rapeseed Importers in 2015
Table 4, Major Palm Oil Importers in 2015
Table 5, Palm Oil Import Product Structure in 2015
Table 6, Soybean Crushing Capacity of Major Enterprises
Table 7, Soybean Crushing Capacity of Yihai Kerry Group
Table 8, Soybean Crushing Capacity of COFCO
Table 9, Soybean Crushing Capacity of Jiusan Grain & Oil Industry Group
Table 10, Soybean Crushing Capacity of Chinatex Corporation
Table 11, Soybean Crushing Capacity of Shandong Bohi Corporation
Table 12, Soybean Crushing Capacity of Sinograin Corporation
Table 13, Rapeseed Crushing Capacity of Major Enterprises
Table 14, Rapeseed Crushing Capacity of COFCO
Table 15, Rapeseed Crushing Capacity of Yihai Kerry Group
Table 16, Rapeseed Crushing Capacity of Chinatex Corporation
Table 17, Palm Oil Processing Capacity of Major Enterprises
Table 18, Palm Oil Processing Capacity of Julong Group
Table 19, Palm Oil Processing Capacity of Yihai Kerry Group
Table 20, Palm Oil Processing Capacity of COFCO
Table 21, Palm Oil Processing Capacity of Shenzhen Niannianfeng
Table 22, Palm Oil Processing Capacity of Indonesia Chunjin Group
Appendix Table 1, Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand in China, 2009/10~2015/16
Appendix Table 2, Global Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand, 2009/10~2015/16