Vietnam Dairy Comprehensive Report Q3/2016
Dairy are important food providing necessary nutrients for every human being. Dairy is a universal and livestock industry related production: Livestock and milk collection take place in almost every country across the world, and up to one million people participate in milk production. It is an important part of the global food system and it plays a key role in the sustainability of rural areas in particular. In fact, the dairy industry actively contributes to the economies of a number of communities, regions and countries. An increasing demand worldwide is noticeably emerging at the present, and the industry is globalizing, thus increasing the scope and intensity of the global dairy trade. However, the world’s dairy industry is mainly produced in developed countries, such as America, New Zealand and is mostly exported to developing countries. In addition, the dairy industry is in shortage of supply. The motivation comes from China and Europe with annual input growth rates up to 20%.
Vietnam does not initially possess the cow raising tradition, this only emerged in Vietnam since the early of the 20th century. Up to 2015, Vietnam has more than 275 thousand units of cow and a total of 19 thousand producers. Cow raising requires capital and high technical skills, but in Vietnam, cows are mainly raised by small scale producers (less than 20 units/ producer) coupled with the lack of knowledge on raising and preventing cows from diseases, resulting in low productivity, high production cost, and unstable milk quality. According to Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant (VIRAC), West Europe has production cost from 45-55 USD. While America has the production cost at about 35-60 USD, depending on each area development. Countries like Argentina have suitable weather and big farming land, helping reducing the average cost. Cost of production in Australasia is 36.6 USD, while it is 30 -35 USD in Australia and 41-42 USD in New Zealand. The discrepancy comes from food price, land price and the revaluation of NZD recently. New Zealand used to have the most competitive price in around the year 2000 (12USD/ 100kg) but the revaluation of the currency and rising inputs price trebled the price. In general, the cost of production did not fluctuate strongly throughout the period. Vietnam has the average cost of production because diluted raising and scale, does not achieve the economics of scale, low productivity (12-15 liters/day) and high cost of cattle-feed and veterinary. This leads to the lack of milk as input materials for milk manufacturing industry for years hence has to rely on imports.
The in-depth research “Vietnam Dairy Industry” carried out by Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant (VIRAC) illustrates the overall scenario of the dairy industry in Vietnam in order to provide an insight for a better understanding regarding the market. The report details the economic situation in general and the industry in particular with updated date and statistic until 2016, the movement of the price as well as the forecast for the upcoming future, covering all domains, including liquid milk, powdered milk, condensed milk as well as yogurt, butter and cheese. Analysis of big players in the industry is also elaborated by providing detailed financial analysis, applied technology, market share, etc. herein to help companies position and define the competiveness in the market. For example, some typical producers are VinaMilk, TH True Milk, Nutrifood, Hanoi milk, IDP, 3A nutrition.
Vietnam does not initially possess the cow raising tradition, this only emerged in Vietnam since the early of the 20th century. Up to 2015, Vietnam has more than 275 thousand units of cow and a total of 19 thousand producers. Cow raising requires capital and high technical skills, but in Vietnam, cows are mainly raised by small scale producers (less than 20 units/ producer) coupled with the lack of knowledge on raising and preventing cows from diseases, resulting in low productivity, high production cost, and unstable milk quality. According to Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant (VIRAC), West Europe has production cost from 45-55 USD. While America has the production cost at about 35-60 USD, depending on each area development. Countries like Argentina have suitable weather and big farming land, helping reducing the average cost. Cost of production in Australasia is 36.6 USD, while it is 30 -35 USD in Australia and 41-42 USD in New Zealand. The discrepancy comes from food price, land price and the revaluation of NZD recently. New Zealand used to have the most competitive price in around the year 2000 (12USD/ 100kg) but the revaluation of the currency and rising inputs price trebled the price. In general, the cost of production did not fluctuate strongly throughout the period. Vietnam has the average cost of production because diluted raising and scale, does not achieve the economics of scale, low productivity (12-15 liters/day) and high cost of cattle-feed and veterinary. This leads to the lack of milk as input materials for milk manufacturing industry for years hence has to rely on imports.
The in-depth research “Vietnam Dairy Industry” carried out by Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant (VIRAC) illustrates the overall scenario of the dairy industry in Vietnam in order to provide an insight for a better understanding regarding the market. The report details the economic situation in general and the industry in particular with updated date and statistic until 2016, the movement of the price as well as the forecast for the upcoming future, covering all domains, including liquid milk, powdered milk, condensed milk as well as yogurt, butter and cheese. Analysis of big players in the industry is also elaborated by providing detailed financial analysis, applied technology, market share, etc. herein to help companies position and define the competiveness in the market. For example, some typical producers are VinaMilk, TH True Milk, Nutrifood, Hanoi milk, IDP, 3A nutrition.
I. Business environment
1. MACROECONOMIC SITUATIONS
Figure 1. GDP and average milk consumption per capita
Figure 2. Food and dairy goods spending, 2012-2015E
Figure 3. Urbanization ratio, 2004-2014
Figure 4. Consumption growth in cities and rural areas 2010-Q3/2015
Figure 5. Vietnam’s population structure, 2014
Figure 6. Population and growth rate, 2004 – 2015
Figure 7. VND/USD Exchange rate, imported milk input price, 2010 – 7/2016
Figure 8. Monthly CPI fluctuation
Figure 9. Consumer’s Confidence Index CCI
Figure 10. Retails sales
2. LEGAL FRAMEWORK
3. TRADE AGREEMENTS
Table 1. Vietnam’s tariff on milk and dairy goods
II. Global market
1. CHAIN VALUE OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY
2. INPUT MATERIALS
Figure 11. Number of cows in the world 2008-2015F
Figure 12. World’s milk production, 2010-2014
Figure 13. Milk production structure, 2014
Figure 14. World’s milk production cost 2014
Figure 15. Milk price/ feed price ratio in America, 2010-2015
Figure 16. Farm’s fresh milk price in some countries, 2014-2015
Figure 17. Average milk consumption per capita, 2008-2023
Table 2. Capability to satisfy regional demands
3. DAIRY GOODS
Figure 18. Quantity production and consumption of liquid milk
Figure 19. Change in milk consumption per capita by countries, 2014
Figure 20. Trade of dairy, 2008-2023F
Figure 21. Milk Import/Export structure, 2015
Figure 22. World’s yogurt production value
Table 3. Quantity production of yogurt by the region
Figure 23. Milk consumption structure
Figure 24. Skimmed milk production structure, 2008-2015
Figure 25. Skimmed milk production and consumption structure, 2015
Figure 26. World’s skimmed food transaction, 2008-2015
Figure 27. Export structure, 2015
Figure 28. Import structure, 2015
Figure 29. Whole milk production and consumption, 2008-2023F
Figure 30. Whole milk production structure, 2015
Figure 31. Whole milk consumption structure, 2015
Figure 32. Global trade of whole powdered milk
Figure 33. Whole milk export structure, 2015
Figure 34. Whole milk import structure, 2015
Figure 35. Cheese production and consumption , 2008-2023F
Figure 36. Cheese export structure, 2015
Figure 37. Cheese import structure, 2015
Figure 38. World’s cheese transaction, 2008-2015
Figure 39. Butter consumption and production
Figure 40. Butter consumption structure 2015
Table 4. World’s top 5 most importing countries, 2015
Figure 41. World’s butter transaction, 2008-2023F
Figure 42. Butter export structure, 2015
Figure 43. Average dairy consumption, 2015
Figure 44. Movement of milk and dairy goods, 2010-T1/2016
4. TYPICAL PRODUCING COUNTRIES
Figure 45. China’s average milk consumption per capita, 2009- 2014
Figure 46. Powdered milk production and consumption, 2010-2015E
Figure 47. Milk material production in China
Figure 48. New Zealand's average milk and dairy good consumption per capita
Figure 49. New Zealand’s input materials, 11/12-14/15
Figure 50. Input material production structure, 2015
Figure 51. Europe’s input materials situation 2010-2015
Figure 52. America’s input material situation, 2010-2015
Figure 53. America’s average milk consumption per capita, 2009- 2014
5. KEY PLAYERS IN THE WORLD
Figure 54. Top 10 companies’ profit and production, 2015
Table 5.
III. Vietnam’s market
1. HISTORY OF ESTABLISHMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
2. PRODUCING PROCEDURES
3. PRODUCING TECHNOLOGY
4. INPUT MATERIALS
Figure 55. Number of cows in Vietnam
Figure 56. Number of cows by region
Figure 57. Fresh Milk production by region
Figure 58. Cow’s growth of companies in the industry
Figure 59. Domestic production
Figure 60. Input material production
Figure 61. Movement of world’s input prices
Figure 62. Fresh material milk in Viet Nam
Table 6. Global raw milk price movement, H1/2016
5. PRODUCTION
Figure 63. Number of enterprises and labor in milk industry
Figure 64. Production quantity of liquid milk
Figure 65. Production quantity of powdered milk
Figure 66. Production quantity of other milk
Figure 67. Monthly production quantity of powdered milk and liquid milk
6. CONSUMPTION
Figure 68. Sale of milk consumption in Viet Nam
Figure 69. Quantity consumption of milk
Figure 70. Revenue of milk companies
Figure 71. Milk Consumption per capita
Table 7. Several powdered milk brands in Vietnam
Figure 72. Sale of powdered milk in Viet Nam
Figure 73. Market share of powdered milk in 2014
Figure 74. Sale of liquid milk
Figure 75. Liquid milk market share in 2014
Figure 76. Sale of Yogurt, 2010-2015
Figure 77. Yogurt market share, 2014
Figure 78. Condensed milk market shares, 2014
Figure 79. Sale consumption of condensed milk
7. COMPETITION ANALYSIS
8. EXPORTS IMPORTS
Figure 80. Imports value of dairy, 2010 – H1/2016
Figure 81. Structure of import market, H1/2016
Figure 82. Export value and export revenue of Vinamilk, 2010 – H1/2016
9. PRICES
Figure 83. Price movements of 400g milk powder
Figure 84. Powdered milk wholesale price 2015
Figure 85. Condensed milk wholesale price in the market 2015
Figure 86. Milk powder wholesale price 2015
Figure 87. Yogurt wholesale price 2015
10. DISTRIBUTION METHODS
Figure 88. Top 10 most popular beverages in Vietnam’s rural areas 2014
Figure 89. Top 10 most popular beverages in Vietnam’s urban million CRP areas 2014
11. INVENTORY
Figure 90. Dairy inventories
IV. Industrial risks
V. Industrial development plan
1. POPULATION GROWTH
Table 8. Forecast of several basic population indicators
Figure 91. Population and population growth forecasts Vietnam 2017
2. RAISING INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
Table 9. Domestic dairy herd growth target 2010 – 2020
Figure 92. Milk production forecasts 2020
3. DAIRY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
Table 10. Dairy product development plan until 2020, vision 2025
VI. Prospects and forecasts
1. DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVES
Figure 93. The percentage of families having children in several countries 2014
2. FORECASTS
Figure 94. Milk consumption forecast in Viet nam 2020
VII. Business analysis
1. OVERVIEW
Table 11.
2. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Figure 95. Net Revenue and Gross Profit, 2015
Figure 96. Selling expenses, 2015
Figure 97. Advertising and Selling costs of Vinamilk 2015
Figure 98. Selling Expenses Structure of Vinamilk 2015
Figure 99. General & Administrative expenses, 2015
Figure 100. Capital Structure, 2015
Figure 101. Forecast of TH Milk loans until 2020
Figure 102. Assets structure, 2015
Table The evaluation indicators of solvency 2015
Table Indicators to assess efficiency of assets 2015
Table The evaluation indicators of business performance, 2015
VIII. Financial analysis annex
1. MACROECONOMIC SITUATIONS
Figure 1. GDP and average milk consumption per capita
Figure 2. Food and dairy goods spending, 2012-2015E
Figure 3. Urbanization ratio, 2004-2014
Figure 4. Consumption growth in cities and rural areas 2010-Q3/2015
Figure 5. Vietnam’s population structure, 2014
Figure 6. Population and growth rate, 2004 – 2015
Figure 7. VND/USD Exchange rate, imported milk input price, 2010 – 7/2016
Figure 8. Monthly CPI fluctuation
Figure 9. Consumer’s Confidence Index CCI
Figure 10. Retails sales
2. LEGAL FRAMEWORK
3. TRADE AGREEMENTS
Table 1. Vietnam’s tariff on milk and dairy goods
II. Global market
1. CHAIN VALUE OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY
2. INPUT MATERIALS
Figure 11. Number of cows in the world 2008-2015F
Figure 12. World’s milk production, 2010-2014
Figure 13. Milk production structure, 2014
Figure 14. World’s milk production cost 2014
Figure 15. Milk price/ feed price ratio in America, 2010-2015
Figure 16. Farm’s fresh milk price in some countries, 2014-2015
Figure 17. Average milk consumption per capita, 2008-2023
Table 2. Capability to satisfy regional demands
3. DAIRY GOODS
Figure 18. Quantity production and consumption of liquid milk
Figure 19. Change in milk consumption per capita by countries, 2014
Figure 20. Trade of dairy, 2008-2023F
Figure 21. Milk Import/Export structure, 2015
Figure 22. World’s yogurt production value
Table 3. Quantity production of yogurt by the region
Figure 23. Milk consumption structure
Figure 24. Skimmed milk production structure, 2008-2015
Figure 25. Skimmed milk production and consumption structure, 2015
Figure 26. World’s skimmed food transaction, 2008-2015
Figure 27. Export structure, 2015
Figure 28. Import structure, 2015
Figure 29. Whole milk production and consumption, 2008-2023F
Figure 30. Whole milk production structure, 2015
Figure 31. Whole milk consumption structure, 2015
Figure 32. Global trade of whole powdered milk
Figure 33. Whole milk export structure, 2015
Figure 34. Whole milk import structure, 2015
Figure 35. Cheese production and consumption , 2008-2023F
Figure 36. Cheese export structure, 2015
Figure 37. Cheese import structure, 2015
Figure 38. World’s cheese transaction, 2008-2015
Figure 39. Butter consumption and production
Figure 40. Butter consumption structure 2015
Table 4. World’s top 5 most importing countries, 2015
Figure 41. World’s butter transaction, 2008-2023F
Figure 42. Butter export structure, 2015
Figure 43. Average dairy consumption, 2015
Figure 44. Movement of milk and dairy goods, 2010-T1/2016
4. TYPICAL PRODUCING COUNTRIES
Figure 45. China’s average milk consumption per capita, 2009- 2014
Figure 46. Powdered milk production and consumption, 2010-2015E
Figure 47. Milk material production in China
Figure 48. New Zealand's average milk and dairy good consumption per capita
Figure 49. New Zealand’s input materials, 11/12-14/15
Figure 50. Input material production structure, 2015
Figure 51. Europe’s input materials situation 2010-2015
Figure 52. America’s input material situation, 2010-2015
Figure 53. America’s average milk consumption per capita, 2009- 2014
5. KEY PLAYERS IN THE WORLD
Figure 54. Top 10 companies’ profit and production, 2015
Table 5.
III. Vietnam’s market
1. HISTORY OF ESTABLISHMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
2. PRODUCING PROCEDURES
3. PRODUCING TECHNOLOGY
4. INPUT MATERIALS
Figure 55. Number of cows in Vietnam
Figure 56. Number of cows by region
Figure 57. Fresh Milk production by region
Figure 58. Cow’s growth of companies in the industry
Figure 59. Domestic production
Figure 60. Input material production
Figure 61. Movement of world’s input prices
Figure 62. Fresh material milk in Viet Nam
Table 6. Global raw milk price movement, H1/2016
5. PRODUCTION
Figure 63. Number of enterprises and labor in milk industry
Figure 64. Production quantity of liquid milk
Figure 65. Production quantity of powdered milk
Figure 66. Production quantity of other milk
Figure 67. Monthly production quantity of powdered milk and liquid milk
6. CONSUMPTION
Figure 68. Sale of milk consumption in Viet Nam
Figure 69. Quantity consumption of milk
Figure 70. Revenue of milk companies
Figure 71. Milk Consumption per capita
Table 7. Several powdered milk brands in Vietnam
Figure 72. Sale of powdered milk in Viet Nam
Figure 73. Market share of powdered milk in 2014
Figure 74. Sale of liquid milk
Figure 75. Liquid milk market share in 2014
Figure 76. Sale of Yogurt, 2010-2015
Figure 77. Yogurt market share, 2014
Figure 78. Condensed milk market shares, 2014
Figure 79. Sale consumption of condensed milk
7. COMPETITION ANALYSIS
8. EXPORTS IMPORTS
Figure 80. Imports value of dairy, 2010 – H1/2016
Figure 81. Structure of import market, H1/2016
Figure 82. Export value and export revenue of Vinamilk, 2010 – H1/2016
9. PRICES
Figure 83. Price movements of 400g milk powder
Figure 84. Powdered milk wholesale price 2015
Figure 85. Condensed milk wholesale price in the market 2015
Figure 86. Milk powder wholesale price 2015
Figure 87. Yogurt wholesale price 2015
10. DISTRIBUTION METHODS
Figure 88. Top 10 most popular beverages in Vietnam’s rural areas 2014
Figure 89. Top 10 most popular beverages in Vietnam’s urban million CRP areas 2014
11. INVENTORY
Figure 90. Dairy inventories
IV. Industrial risks
V. Industrial development plan
1. POPULATION GROWTH
Table 8. Forecast of several basic population indicators
Figure 91. Population and population growth forecasts Vietnam 2017
2. RAISING INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
Table 9. Domestic dairy herd growth target 2010 – 2020
Figure 92. Milk production forecasts 2020
3. DAIRY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
Table 10. Dairy product development plan until 2020, vision 2025
VI. Prospects and forecasts
1. DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVES
Figure 93. The percentage of families having children in several countries 2014
2. FORECASTS
Figure 94. Milk consumption forecast in Viet nam 2020
VII. Business analysis
1. OVERVIEW
Table 11.
2. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Figure 95. Net Revenue and Gross Profit, 2015
Figure 96. Selling expenses, 2015
Figure 97. Advertising and Selling costs of Vinamilk 2015
Figure 98. Selling Expenses Structure of Vinamilk 2015
Figure 99. General & Administrative expenses, 2015
Figure 100. Capital Structure, 2015
Figure 101. Forecast of TH Milk loans until 2020
Figure 102. Assets structure, 2015
Table The evaluation indicators of solvency 2015
Table Indicators to assess efficiency of assets 2015
Table The evaluation indicators of business performance, 2015
VIII. Financial analysis annex
