Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S.

August 2010 | 162 pages | ID: FD3C515280EEN
Packaged Facts

Abstracts

ProdUnit Price (Global Site License): US$ 5,500.00

U.S. consumers have been caught in an economic freefall over the past two years, but the crisis appears to be nearing an end. However, the significant changes in attitudes and behaviors brought about by these recessionary pressures persist, with consumers continuing to rethink what value means and monitor spending carefully. In this environment, the growing focus on nutrition as a means to wellness—coupled with renewed interest in eating at home and demand for “comfort food”—has spurred bakeries to provide healthy products that offer high-quality ingredients and a restaurant-quality experience at appealing prices.

These combined trends have resulted in steady, if modest, growth in sales of fresh baked goods over the past five years. Retail sales of fresh bread and sweet baked items topped $16 billion in 2009, up 4.2% from the previous year. And as bakeries grow ever more creative in meeting consumer demand for specific types of products and the economy improves, this rate of growth is likely to improve. Taking all market trends into account, Packaged Facts projects that the market will grow by 26% between 2009 and 2014, to reach $20.1 billion at retail.

A completely new report from Packaged Facts, Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. offers a comprehensive look at the overriding trends in the market. The report examines baked goods that are prepared fresh at both in-store and stand-alone bakeries, using preparation methods such as made-from-scratch, mixes, par-baking (or pre-baking) and thaw-and-heat. It also analyzes trends in the key retail channels through which baked goods are sold—both stand-alone bakeries and in-store outlets—including traditional supermarkets, supercenters/mass merchandisers, natural food stores, and warehouse clubs. The report also examines activity at the foodservice level, where trends in baked goods often start, focusing on high-growth areas including bakery cafes.

A special feature is May/June 2010 custom Packaged Facts research on consumer attitudes and purchasing patterns. Specifically tailored for this report, the survey details consumer preferences for baked goods channels and items purchased, in addition to other psychographic indicators. Additional demographic analysis derives from data compiled by Experian Simmons, New York, NY, including indexing of consumers most or least likely to often eat different types of breads. The report also breaks out sales by type of bread or sweet baked good for numerous segments, details market growth drivers and projects future sales, identifies competitive opportunities including sustainability appeals, and tracks trends at in-store bakeries.

Contents

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

Scope of Report

Report Methodology

Market Size and Growth

Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession

Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues

Figure 1-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel, 2009 (percent)

Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share

Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries

Retailing Trends

Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries

Figure 1-2: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)

Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments

Supermarkets

Mass Merchandisers

Natural Food Stores

Warehouse Stores

Baking & Marketing Trends

Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape

Healthier Fare

Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option

Whole Grains for Health

Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options

Sugar-Free Options Still Popular

Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam

Natural and Organic Products

Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local”

Affordable Luxuries

Artisan and Small-Batch Goods

Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods

Flavor Adventure

Foodservice Trends

Bakery Cafes Grow in Popularity

Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal

Consumer Trends

Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum

Figure 1-3: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)

Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity

Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster

CHAPTER 2: MARKET TRENDS

Introduction

Scope of Report

Excluded Products

Report Methodology

Market Size and Growth

Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession

Table 2-1: Total U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Baked Goods, 2005-2009 (in millions of dollars)

Table 2-2: In-Store Service Bakery Annual Sales, 2000-2010 (in billions of dollars)

Table 2-3: SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods, 2008 vs. 2009 (in millions of dollars)

Market Composition

Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues

Figure 2-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel, 2009 (percent)

Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share

Packaged Products Break Out Differently

Figure 2-2: Share of In-Store Bakery Department Dollar Sales by Product Classification, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)

Table 2-4: Share of SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods by Category and Segment, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)

Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries

Table 2-5: Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries, May/June 2010 (percent)

Cakes and Cupcakes

Figure 2-3: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Cake, 2009 (percent)

Retailer Perspective: United Supermarkets

Cookies

Pies

Baker’s Perspective: Rocky Mountain Pies

Other Desserts

Breads

Figure 2-4: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Bread, 2009 (percent)

Table 2-6: Percentage of Consumers Purchasing Fresh Baked Bread by Type: May/June 2010

Artisan Breads

Rolls

Figure 2-5: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Rolls, 2009 (percent)

Doughnuts

Figure 2-6: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Doughnuts, 2009 (percent)

Sweet Goods

Figure 2-7: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Sweet Goods, 2009 (percent)

Muffins

Figure 2-8: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Muffins, 2009 (percent)

Bagels

Market Outlook

Economy Slowly Improving

Table 2-7: Economy-Influenced Spending by U.S. Consumers: Less in General vs. Less on Groceries, May/June 2010 (percent)

Table 2-8: Agreement with Statement, “Compared to 3 Months Ago, How Much Are You Doing Any of the Following Right Now?”, May/June 2010 (percent)

Fresh Baked Goods: An Affordable Luxury

Figure 2-9: Changes in Consumer Bakery Buying Habits, 2009 (percent)

Figure 2-10: Bakery Items Consumers Purchase Less Frequently, 2009 (percent)

Eat-At-Home Movement Benefits Fresh Baked Goods Market

Eating Healthy

Table 2-9: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)

Table 2-10: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Sales Gains on Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)

Heart-Healthy Grains

Gluten-Free and Other Allergy Concerns

Portion Control and Convenience

Natural and Organic

“Clean Label” Foods

Baking—Naturally

Environmental Concerns

Impact of Healthcare Reform

Figure 2-11: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “Which Topic Will Be Most Important to Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)

Figure 2-12: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “What Do You Think Consumers Will Be Looking for in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)

Figure 2-13: Retailer Survey: “Which Topic Will Have the Greatest Impact on Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)

Figure 2-14: Retailer Survey: “What Initiatives Are Your Company Most Likely to Focus on in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)

Food and Beverage Industry Reacts

Food Safety Legislation

Baked Goods Sales Through 2014

Table 2-11: Projected U.S. Sales of Baked Goods Through Retail Channels, 2009-2014 (in millions of dollars)

CHAPTER 3: RETAIL TRENDS

Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries

Figure 3-1: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)

Figure 3-2: Fresh Sweet Baked Goods: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)

Figure 3-3: In-Store Bakery: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)

Table 3-1: In-Store Service Bakery Percent of Total Store Sales, 2000-2010 (percent)

Table 3-2: Number of In-Store Service Bakeries 2000-2010

Preparation Methods

Table 3-3: How In-Store Service Bakeries Prepare Products, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)

Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments

Table 3-4: Problems Facing Bakery Departments, 2009 vs. 2010

Supermarkets

Illustration 3-1: Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses—Fresh Baked Cakes and Pies Featuring Local Strawberries

Illustration 3-2: Fresh Baked Cake and Pie Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses Featuring “Remarkable Buys!”

Mass Merchandisers

Illustration 3-3: In-Store Bakery Display in Walmart Featuring “Unbeatable Prices”

Illustration 3-4: In-Store Bakery Department Self-Serve Pastry Case in Walmart

Illustration 3-5: In-Store Bakery Department in Walmart—Location and Banners

Natural Food Stores

Illustration 3-6: In-Store Bakery Department in Whole Foods—Gourmet Pastry Case

Warehouse Stores

Illustration 3-7: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Cup Cakes and Sheet Cakes

Illustration 3-8: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Table Displays

Wholesale and Retail Bakeries

Wholesalers Ramp Up Production

Retail Bakeries Expand Nationwide, Internationally

Illustration 3-10: Facade of Newport Beach, CA’s Wonderland Bakery

Bakery Perspective: Tom Cat Bakery

CHAPTER 4: BAKING & MARKETING TRENDS

Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape

Healthier Fare

Table 4-1: “I Frequently Use Nutritionally Fortified Food and Beverage Products,” May/June 2010 (percent)

Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option

Illustration 4-1: Display Case of Single-Serve Desserts at Whole Foods

Whole Grains for Health

Table 4-2: Food Types People Eat to Ensure That Their Diet Is Healthy, 2010 (percent)

Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options

Retailer Perspective: Whole Foods

Illustration 4-2: Whole Foods Gluten Free Bakehouse Label

Sugar-Free Options Still Popular

Olive Oil as Ingredient

Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam

Natural and Organic Products

Table 4-3: Purchasing of Natural/Organic Food Products by Type, July 2009-March 2010 (percent of U.S. households)

Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local”

Affordable Luxuries

Table 4-4: Consumer Purchasing Habits: Gourmet Products, May/June 2010 (percent)

Artisan and Small-Batch Goods

Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods

Whoopie Pies

Caramelized Flavors

Flavor Adventure

Retailer Profile: Sucre

Illustration 4-3: Gift Box of Macaroons from New Orleans’ Sucre Sweet Shop

Bacon…and Cupcakes?

CHAPTER 5: FOODSERVICE TRENDS

Bakery Cafes Grow in Popularity

Table 5-1: Top 20 Largest Foodservice Bakery Operations by Number of Outlets, 2009 (in millions of dollars)

Table 5-2: Household Usage Rates for Leading Doughnut and Bakery Chains, 2009/10 (percent and number in millions of U.S. households)

Smaller Foodservice Bakery Cafes Find Success

Panera Bread Co

Table 5-3: Demographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)

Table 5-4: Psychographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)

[Illustration 5-1]: Donation Bin for Panera’s Nonprofit Store Concept

Coffeehouses Increase Profits with Baked Goods

Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal

CHAPTER 6: CONSUMER TRENDS

Note on Experian Simmons Survey Data

Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum

Table 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (percent of U.S. households)

Table 6-2: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (millions of U.S. households)

Figure 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)

Table 6-3: Household Penetration Rates by Types of Bread Used and Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)

Remix Rather Than Revolution in Bread Preferences

Table 6-4: Household Usage Rates By Types of Bread Used, Used Most Often, and Also Used: 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)

Whole Grain vs. White Bread Psychographics

Table 6-5: Psychographic Patterns by Types of Bread Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2009 (percent and index)

Psychographics for Individual Types of Bread

Table 6-6: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Work at Eating a Well-Balanced Diet,” 2009 (percent and index)

Table 6-7: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Try to Include Plenty of Fiber in My Diet,” 2009 (percent and index)

Table 6-8: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “Usually Only Snack on Healthy Foods,” 2009 (percent and index)

Table 6-9: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “When I Shop for Foods, I Look for Organic/Natural Products,” 2009 (percent and index)

Table 6-10: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Try to Eat Gourmet Food Whenever I Can,” 2009 (percent and index)

Table 6-11: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Look for the Freshest Ingredients When I Cook,” 2009 (percent and index)

Table 6-12: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “Don’t Have Time to Prepare or Eat Healthy Meals,” 2009 (percent and index)

Demographics for Individual Types of Bread

Table 6-13: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Gender, 2009 (U.S. households)

Table 6-14: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Adult Age Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)

Table 6-15: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Race/Ethnicity, 2009 (U.S. households)

Table 6-16: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Geographic Region, 2009 (U.S. households)

Table 6-17: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Household Income Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)

Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity

Table 6-18: Household Usage Rates for Selected Specialty Breads, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)

Table 6-19: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)

Fresh Bagels Gain at Frozen’s Expense

Table 6-20: Household Usage Rates for Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)

Fresh vs. Frozen Bagel Psychographics

Table 6-21: Psychographic Patterns for Use of Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2009 (percent and index)

Demographics for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels

Table 6-22: Purchasing Indices for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels: By Selected Demographic Traits, 2009 (U.S. households)

Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster

Table 6-23: Household Usage Rates for Selected Packaged Breakfast Pastries, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)