China Dairy Market Review & Outlook Proposal 2010-2011

Date: February 22, 2011
Pages: 148
Price:
US$ 2,000.00
Publisher: Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Co., Ltd
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: CA82F39B738EN
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China Dairy Market Review & Outlook Proposal 2010-2011
Research Background

2010 is an unusual year of China's dairy market. The cost of dairy cattle forage, fuel power and labor are general on the increase which leading to a higher raw milk prices. By the cost-effective point of view, China has become one of the countries having the highest raw milk prices in the world. An extravagant price of raw milk not only weakened the competitive of Chinese dairy industry in the international market, but also brought enormous cost pressure to the domestic dairy processing enterprises. Gross margin of the dairy industry is declining. According to the financial reports of listed companies, both corporate grass margin and sales profit have decreased in varying degrees. The melamine incident in 2008 and the world financial crisis led to global raw milk and dairy prices fell to a new bottom of recent years in 2009. In 2010, the global economic began recovery, consumer demand for milk and dairy products quickly picked up. Strong demand and short supply drove raw milk and dairy products prices continue to rise. Domestic raw milk and milk-based raw material prices remained high, processors began to seek for greater recourse in the international market. In 2010, the whole milk powder and skim milk powder China imported from New Zealand is expected to exceed 0.4 million MT, bringing a major impact on milk powder industry and even the entire dairy industry of China, which is facing tough market environment. The resurgence of the melamine incident in 2010 sounded the alarm to dairy quality and safety once again, directly impacting on the sustainable and healthy development of domestic market consumption and the industry. The Chinese government has increased efforts to regulate the industry and the industry significantly increased barriers to entry. In view of policies introduced of the year, the government support and preferential policies tilted for the scale farming; the needs of dairy products processing enterprises for controlled milk origin is further enhanced, enterprises entirely dependent on imports of foreign brands are facing unprecedented challenges, the unreasonable 'national treatment' policy for foreign investment is cancelled, all these will enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises and foreign enterprises and 'the right to speak' impact of foreign investments in high-end formula milk powder market will be affected.

In 2010, domestic and international market environment that China's dairy industry faces experienced major changes. The industry is reflecting and a growing number of dairy companies are rethinking of the survival and development ways, particularly major dairy companies are adjusting their corporate strategies to respond to new market and policy environment. In 2011, the Chinese dairy industry will face more severe market environment, raw milk prices and dairy prices will continue to rise on the current high level. With the newly introduced policies implemented in 2011, a large number of dairy processing companies are expected to withdraw under the improved threshold for the industry. The industry concentration will increase.

This report presents a panoramic view of China’s dairy industry in 2010, including raw milk and dairy production, dairy products consumption, dairy products trade, raw milk and dairy products price trends, the running of China’s dairy industry, competition situation of China’s dairy market, operating performance, investment of dairy companies, the world dairy market trends, the production, consumption and trade of main dairy producing and trading countries, the impact of the world dairy market on China’s dairy industry, and predict of the development trend of China’s dairy industry in 2011.

This report is the result of collective wisdom of the dairy research group of BOABC. The senior dairy analysts of BOABC dairy research group are members of relevant government sectors and association think tank, maintaining a good relationship with relevant government departments and a good relationship with national key dairy companies, associated industries and enterprises. These resource advantages provide a unique and valuable professional support for the writing of the report, and ensure the data cited are accurate, authorized, scientific and forward-looking. BOABC believes that the report is an important reference for domestic and foreign investment companies, dairy companies, dairy ingredient suppliers, relevant equipment suppliers to make strategic decisions, and an important reference for industry associations, research institutions and other organizations.
CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW OF CHINA’S DAIRY INDUSTRY IN 2010

1.1 Raw Milk Production
  1.1.1 Slight Slip of Dairy Cattle Inventory
  1.1.2 Minor Growth of Raw Milk Production
1.2 Dairy Processing
  1.2.1 Continual Fast Growth of Liquid Milk Production
  1.2.2 Continual Rally of Solid Dairy Production
1.3 Dairy Trade
  1.3.1 Continual Marked Growth of Dairy Import
  1.3.2 Continual Sluggishness of Dairy Export
1.4 Dairy Consumption
  1.4.1 Rally of Per Capita Possession Volume of Milk
  1.4.2 Steady Per Capita Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents
1.5 Dairy Price
1.6 Operation of the Dairy Industry
1.7 Restructuring of the Industry
1.8 Dairy Industry Policy
Dairy Industry Policy

CHAPTER 2 POLICY ENVIRONMENT FOR CHINA’S DAIRY INDUSTRY IN 2010

2.1 Overview of Relevant Policies, Standards and Plans
2.2 Policy
  2.2.1 Major Content of the “Circular on Further Strengthening Dairy Quality and Safety Work from the General Office of the State Council” and Impact on Dairy Industry
  2.2.2 Major Content of the “Examination Rules on Prerequisites for Dairy Production of Companies (2010 version)” and Impact on Dairy Industry
  2.2.3 Major Content of “Examination Rules on Prerequisites for Production of Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder of Companies (2010 version)” and Impact on Dairy Industry
  2.2.4 Major Content of the “Special Fund from Central Finance for Animal Breed Improvement in 2010”
2.3 Standards
  2.3.1 Major Contents of 66 National Standards on Dairy Quality and Safety
  2.3.2 Impact from the New National Standard on Dairy Quality and Safety to Dairy Industry
  2.3.3 Stipulations of the “General Requirements on Labels of Edible Essence”
  2.3.4 Stipulations of the New “Food Nutrition Enriching Agents”
2.4 Plans
  2.4.1 Major Content of the “National Dairy Farming Development Plan” (2009-2013)
  2.4.2 Impact on Dairy Industry from the Plan

CHAPTER 3 DAIRY PRODUCTION IN CHINA IN 2010

3.1 Raw Milk Production
  3.1.1 Overview
  3.1.2 Dairy Cattle Inventory
  3.1.3 Raw Milk Production
  3.1.4 Regional Layout of Dairy Farming
  3.1.5 Raw Milk Procurement Price
  3.1.6 Dairy Farming Modes
  3.1.7 Dairy Farming Profit
  3.1.8 Feed Price
3.2 Dairy Processing
  3.2.1 Liquid Milk
  3.2.2 Solid Dairy Products
  3.2.3 Milk Powder
  3.2.4 Other Solid Dairy Products

CHAPTER 4 CHINA’S TRADE OF DAIRY PRODUCTS IN 2010

4.1 Dairy Import
  4.1.1 Overview
  4.1.2 Import Structure
4.2 Milk Powder Import
  4.2.1 Import Quantity
  4.2.2 Import Structure
  4.2.3 Source of Import
  4.2.4 Destination of Import
  4.2.5 Importation Price
  4.2.6 Web Quote of Fonterra Full-cream Milk Powder
4.3 Whey Import
  4.3.1 Import Quantity
  4.3.2 Source of Import
  4.3.3 Destination of Import
  4.3.4 Importation Price
4.4 Import of Milk Fat
  4.4.1 Import Quantity
  4.4.2 Source of Import
  4.4.3 Importation Price
4.5 Cheese Import
  4.5.1 Import Quantity
  4.5.2 Source of Import
  4.5.3 Importation Price Analysis
  4.5.3 Importation Price
4.6 Import of Fresh Dairy Products
  4.6.1 Import Quantity
  4.6.2 Source of Import
  4.6.3 Importation Price
4.7 Yogurt Import
  4.7.1 Import Quantity
  4.7.2 Importation Price
4.8 Lactose Import
4.9 Import of Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder
4.10 Import of Dairy Cattle and Their Bio Products
  4.10.1 Import Quantity
  4.10.2 Importation Price
4.11 Alfalfa Import
4.11 Dairy Export
  4.11.1 Overview
  4.11.2 Structure of Dairy Export
  4.11.3 Fresh Dairy Export
  4.11.4 Milk Powder Export

CHAPTER 5 DAIRY CONSUMPTION IN CHINA IN 2010

5.1 Overview
5.2 Structure of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents
5.3 Dairy Consuming Regions of Urban Residents
5.4 Dairy Consumption by Rural Residents
5.5 Retail Price of Dairy Products
  5.5.1 Fresh Milk Price
  5.5.2 Yogurt Price
  5.5.3 Price of Formula Milk Powder
5.6 Prices of Dairy Ingredients
  5.6.1 Lactose Price
  5.6.2Whit Sugar Price

CHAPTER 6 COMPETITIVENESS OF DAIRY MARKET IN CHINA IN 2010

6.1 Overview
6.2 Market Competition of Raw Milk
6.3 Market Competition of Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder
  6.3.1 Market Environment
  6.3.2 Market Share of Major Competitive Brands
6.4 Market Competition of Liquid Milk
  6.4.1 UHT Milk
  6.4.2 Yogurt
  6.4.3 Pasteurized Milk
  6.4.4 Yogurt Drinks

CHAPTER 7 MAIN DAIRY PROCESSING COMPANIES IN 2010

7.1 Yili
  7.1.1 Business Revenue
  7.1.2 Market Competition Status
  7.1.3 Operational Strategy and Measures of Yili in 2010
  7.1.4 Prospect of Yili
7.2 Mengniu
  7.2.1 Operating Revenue
  7.2.2 Market Competition Status
  7.2.3 Background and Impact from Mengniu’s Acquisition of Junlebao
  7.2.4 Prospect of Business Revenue of Mengniu
7.3 Bright Dairy
  7.3.1 Operating Revenue
  7.3.2 Market Competition Status
  7.3.3 Operational Strategy and Measures of Bright Dairy in 2010
  7.3.4 Prospect of Bright Dairy
7.4 Sanyuan Dairy
  7.4.1 Operating Revenue
  7.4.2 Market Competition Status
  7.4.3 Evaluation of Hebei Sanyuan Operating Revenue
  7.4.4 Prospect of Sanyuan Dairy
7.5 Wondersun
  7.5.1 Operating Revenue
  7.5.2 Market Competition Status
  7.5.3 Prospect of Wondersun
7.6 Yinqiao
  7.6.1 Operating Revenue
  7.6.2 Market Competition Status
  7.6.3 Prospect of Yinqiao
7.7 Feihe
  7.7.1 Operating Revenue
  7.7.2 Market Competition Status
  7.7.3 Prospect of Feihe
7.8 New Hope Dairy
  7.8.1 Operating Revenue
  7.8.2 Market Competition Status
  7.8.3 Prospect of New Hope Dairy
7.9 Nestle
  7.9.1 Operating Revenue
  7.9.2 Prospect of Nestle
7.10 Dumex
  7.10.1 Operating Revenue
  7.10.2 Prospect of Dumex

CHAPTER 8 DEVELOPMENT OF DAIRY PROCESSING INDUSTRY IN CHINA IN 2010析

8.1 Overview
8.2 Operational Capability of Dairy Processing Industry

CHAPTER 9 STATUS OF WORLD DAIRY MARKET IN 2010

10.1 10.1 Overview
  10.1.1 Production of Milk and Dairy Products
  10.1.2 Trade of Dairy Products
  10.1.3 World Dairy Price
10.2 Dairy Market Status of Main Dairy Producing and Trade Countries in 2010
  10.2.1 New Zealand
  10.2.2 Australia
  10.2.3 USA
  10.2.4 EU
  10.2.5 10.2.5 India

CHAPTER 10 OUTLOOK OF CHINA’S DAIRY INDUSTRY IN 2011

10.1 Overview
10.2 Raw Milk Production
  10.2.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory
  10.2.2 Milk Production
  10.2.3 Raw Milk Layout
10.3 Dairy Processing
  10.3.1 Main Dairy Products
  10.3.2 Other Dairy Products
  10.3.3 Marginal Dairy Products
10.4 Forecast on Dairy Trade
  10.4.1 Import
  10.4.2 Export
10.5 Price Trend of Raw Milk and Dairy Products
  10.5.1 Raw Milk Price
  10.5.2 Dairy Price
10.6 Forecast on Dairy Consumption
10.7 Forecast on Dairy Competition Pattern
Annexes
Annex I: Raw Milk Supply and Demand Balance of China, 2009-2011
Annex II: WMP Supply and Demand Balance of China, 2009-2011

FIGURES & TABLES

Figure 3-1 Changing Trend of Dairy Cattle Inventory, 1997-2010
Figure 3-2 Changing Trend of Gross Raw Milk Production, 1996-2010
Figure 3-3 Average Price Trend of Raw Milk in the 10 Producing Provinces, 2008-2010
Figure 3-4 Cow Cattle Raising Efficency Change, by Month, 2009-2010
Figure 3-5 Trend of Average Corn Spot Price, by Month, 2008-2010
Figure 3-6 Average Trend of Soymeal Spot Price, by Month, 2008-2010
Figure 3-7 Output of Liquid Milk and the Trend, 2000-2009
Figure 3-8 Output of Liquid Milk and the Trend, by Month, 2005-2009
Figure 3-9 Shares of Main Liquid Milk Producing Provinces in the National Total, 2010
Figure 3-10 Comparison of Liquid Milk Output among Provinces, 2010
Figure 3-11 Composition of Liquid Milk, 2000-2010
Figure 3-12 UHT Milk Production and Growth Rate, 2001-2010
Figure 3-14 Pasteurized Milk Production and Growth Rate, 2001-2010
Figure 3-14 Yogurt Production and Growth Rate, 2001-2010
Figure 3-15 Changing Trend of Production of Solid Dairy Products, 1957-2010
Figure 3-16 Changing Trend of Production of Solid Dairy Products, by Month, 2006-2010
Figure 3-17 Output of Solid Dairy Products of Different Regions, 1998-2010
Figure 3-18 Production of Solid Dairy Products of Main Provinces, 2003-2010
Figure 3-19 Proportion of Production of Solid Dairy Products of Main Provinces in National Total, 2010
Figure 3-20 Changing Trend of Production of Milk Powder, 1997-2010
Figure 3-21 Proportion of Production of Milk Powder of Main Provinces in National Total, 2010
Figure 4-1 Trend of Import of Milk Powder, by Month, 2005-2010
Figure 4-2 Changes of Structure of Milk Powder Import (by Quantity), 2003-2010
Figure 4-3 Trend of CIF Price of Milk Powder, by Month, 2005-2010
Figure 4-4 Trend of Import Price (CIF) of Whey Product, by Month, 2005-2009
Figure 4-5 Trend of Import of Butter and Anhydrous Cream, by Volume, by Month, 2004-2010
Figure 4-6 Origins of Milk Fat Import and Changes, 2003-2010
Figure 4-7 Trend of Import Price (CIF) of Butter and Anhydrous Cream, 2005-2010
Figure 4-8 Structure of Cheese Import, by Quantity, 2010
Figure 4-9 Trend of Cheese Import, by Quantity, 2004-2010
Figure 4-10 Trend of Cheese Import, by Structure, 2004-2010
Figure 4-11 Trend of Import Price (CIF) of Cheese, 2004-2010
Figure 4-12 Origins of Fresh Milk (HS0401) Import, 2010
Figure 4-13 Trend of Import Price (CIF) of Fresh Dairy Products, by Month, 2005-2010
Figure 4-14 Trend of Import Price (CIF) of Yogurt, by Month, 2005-2010
Figure 4-15 Trend of Import Price (CIF) of Anhydrous Lactose, by Month, 2005-2010
Figure 4-16 Trend of Import Volume and Price (CIF) of Infants Formula Milk Powder, 2000-2010
Figure 4-17 Origins of Infants Formula Milk Powder (HS19011000) Import, 2010
Figure 4-18 Structure of Dairy Products Export (by Quantity), 2010
Figure 4-19 Changing Trend of Monthly Fresh Milk Export, by Month, 2007-2010
Figure 4-20 China Milk Powder Exports Trend, by Month, 2007-2010
Figure 4-21 Structure of Exported Milk Powder of China, by Volume, 2010
Figure 4-22 China Milk Powder Export Market Share, by Volume (Unit: MT), 2010
Figure 5-1 Structure of Dairy Consumption of Urban Residents, by Volume, by Quarter, 2005-2010
Figure 5-2 Structure of Dairy Consumption of Urban Residents, by Value, by Quarter, 2005-2010
Figure 5-3 Per Capita Consumption Amount of Milk and Dairy Products of Rural Resident, 1992-2010
Figure 5-4 Price Trend of Fresh Milk of Urban Market, by Quarter, 2005-2010
Figure 5-5 Price Trend of Yogurt of Urban Market, by Quarter, 2005-2010
Figure 5-6 Price Trend of Small-pack Milk Powder of Urban Market, by Quarter, 2005-2010
Figure 5-7 China Import Price (CIF) of Anhydrous Lactose, by Month, 2005-2010
Figure 5-8 Trend of Wholesale Spot Price of White Sugar, 2000-2010
Figure 6-1 Changes of Market Share of Foreign and Domestic Famous Brands of Infant Formula Milk Powder, by Sales Value, Jan-Jun, 2009-2010
Figure 6-2 Changes of Market Share of Domestic Famous Brands of UHT Milk, by Sales Value, Sep 2009 to Sep 2010
Figure 6-3 Changes of Market Share of Domestic Famous Brands of Yogurt, by Sales Value, Sep 2009 to Sep 2010
Figure 6-4 Changes of Production Share of Domestic Famous Brands of Pasteurized Milk, 2008-2009
Figure 6-5 Changes of Market Share of Domestic Famous Brands of Acidified Drinks, by Sales Value, Sep 2009 to Sep 2010
Figure 9-1 Cheddar Cheese Price (FOB), 2005-2010
Figure 9-2 Average Winning Price (FOB) of AMF, 2001-2010
Figure 9-3 Average Winning Price (FOB) of WMP, 2001-2010
Figure 9-4 Average Winning Price (FOB) of SMP, 2001-2010
Figure 9-5 Average Cow Numbers per Herd and Average Milk Fat Production per Cow (calendar year)
Figure 9-6 Milk Production, Cows in Milk and Average Farm Gate Prices
Figure 9-7 Average On-Farm Milk Solids Production Compared with Stocking Rates
Figure 9-8 Australia Dairy Cattle (000’ head), 2000/01-2010/2011
Figure 9-9 Australian Butter Production and Exports, 2001/02-2010/2011
Figure 9-5 American Milk Price Trend, 2000-2011($/cwt)
Figure 9-6 American Cheese Production, by Month, 2006-2010
Figure 9-7 American Cheddar Cheese Prices (FOB) Trend, 2005-2010
Figure 9-8 American Dried Whey Production, by Month, 2006-2010
Figure 9-9 American Dried Whey Prices (FOB) Trend, 2005-2010
Figure 9-10 American SMP (human) Production, by Month, 2006-2010
Figure 9-11 American SMP (human) Prices (FOB) Trend, 2005-2010
Figure 9-12 American Butter Production, by Month, 2006-2010
Figure 9-13 American Butter Prices (FOB) Trend, 2005-2010
Figure 9-14 American Lactose Production, by Month, 2006-2010
Table 4-1 Import of Dairy Products, 2009-2010
Table 4-2 Changes of Structure of Dairy Import, by Quantity, 2009-2010
Table 4-3 Source of Milk Powder Import and Changes, by Quantity, 2009-2010
Table 4-4 Flow of Milk Powder Import (Quantity), 2010
Table 4-5 Changes of Online Auction Price (1) of Whole Milk Powder from Fonterra, 2008-2010
Table 4-6 Origin of Whey Import and Changes of Proportion in Total Import, 2009-2010
Table 4-7 Destination of Imported Whey, by Volume, 2009-2010
Table 4-8 Origins of Cheese Import, by Volume, 2010
Table 4-9 China Import Volume of Quality Breeding Cattle and Biologic Products, 2007- 2010
Table 4-10 China Import Price of Quality Breeding Cattle and Biologic Products, 2007- 2010
Table 4-11 China Dairy Products Export, 2010
Table 4-12 Comparison of Monthly Import and Export Prices of Fresh Milk, 2007-2010
Table 4-13 Comparison of Export Prices & Import Prices of Milk Powder of China, 2007-2010
Table 5-1 Per Capita Dairy Possession Amount and Forecast, 1992-2010
Table 5-2 Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Urban Residents, 1992-2010
Table 5-3 Changes of Per Capita Expenditure on Dairy Consumption of Urban Residents, by Quarter, 2006-2010
Table 5-4 Changes of Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Urban Residents of Different Provinces, 2008-2010
Table 5-5 Changes of Per Capita Fresh Milk Consumption of Urban Residents of Different Provinces, 2008-2010
Table 5-5 Changes of Per Capita Yogurt Consumption of Urban Residents of Different Provinces, 2008-2010
Table 5-7 Changes of Per Capita Milk Powder Consumption of Urban Residents of Different Provinces, 2008-2010
Table 7-1 Total Profit of Yili, 1st half of 2010
Table 7-2 Total Profit of Yili, 1st Three Quaters of 2010
Table 7-3 Core Business of Yili, 1st half of 2010
Table 7-4 Core Business by Region of Yili, 1st half of 2010
Table 7-5 Total Profit of Mengniu, 1st half of 2010
Table 7-6 Revenue of Different Products of Mengniu, 1st half 2010
Table 7-7 Total Profit of Bright Dairy, 1st half 2010
Table 7-8 Total Profit of Bright Dairy, 1st Three Quarters 2010
Table 7-9 Core Sector of Bright Dairy, 1st half 2010
Table 7-10 Core Sector by Region of Bright Dairy, 1st half 2010
Table 7-11 Total Profit of Sanyuan Food, 1st half 2010
Table 7-12 Profit of Sanyuan Foods (Mother) 1st Three Quarters of 2010
Table 7-13 Core Sector of Sanyuan Food, 1st half 2010
Table 7-16 Core Sector by Region of Sanyuan Food, 1st half 2010
Table 7-15 Dairy Production of Wandersun Dairy, 2009-2010
Table 7-16 Dairy Production of Yinqiao Dairy, 2009-2010
Table 7-17 Total Profit of Feihe Dairy, by Quarter, 2010
Table 7-18 Total Profit of New Hope, 1st half 2010
Table 7-19 Total Profit of New Hope, 1st Three Quarters of 2010
Table 7-20 Core Sector of New Hope Agriculture, 1st half 2010
Table 7-21 Subsidairy Companies Equity-controlled by New Hope Dairy, 2010
Table 9-1 Development Indices of Dairy Industry, 2002-2010
Table 9-2 Asset Management Ratio of Dairy Industry, 2002-2010
Table 9-1 Profitability of Dairy Farming (NZ dollars per kilogram of milk solids)
Table 9-2 Payout Prices by NZ Dairy Cooperatives (Per Kg of Milk Solids)
Table 9-3 Supply and Demand of Raw Milk of New Zealand, 2009-2011
Table 9-4 Supply and Demand of Butter of New Zealand, 2009-2011
Table 9-5 Supply and Demand of Cheese of New Zealand, 2009-2011
Table 9-6 Supply and Demand of SMP of New Zealand, 2009-2011
Table 9-7 Supply and Demand of WMP of New Zealand, 2009-2011
Table 9-8 Supply and Demand of Raw Milk of Australia, 2009-2011
Table 9-9 Supply and Demand of Cheese of Australia, 2009-2011
Table 9-10 Supply and Demand of Butter of Australia, 2009-2011
Table 9-11 Supply and Demand of WMP of Australia, 2009-2011
Table 9-12 Supply and Demand of SMP of Australia, 2009-2011
Table 9-13 Trend of Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Production in the US, 2009-2010
Table 9-14 Changes of Milk Price of Certain States in the US
Table 9-15 Raw Milk Supply and Demand Balance of EU 27 Countries, 2009-2011
Table 9-16 Cheese Supply and Demand Balance of EU 27 Countries, 2009-2011
Table 9-17 Butter Supply and Demand Balance of EU 27 Countries, 2009-2011
Table 9-18 SMP Supply and Demand Balance of EU 27 Countries, 2009-2011
Table 9-19 WMP Supply and Demand Balance of EU 27 Countries, 2009-2011
Table 9-20 India's Milk Product Mix - 2009
Table 9-21 Raw Milk Supply and Demand Balance of India, 2009-2011
Table 9-22 Skimmed Milk Powder Supply and Demand Balance of India, 2009-2011
Table 9-23 Butter (Ghee) Supply and Demand Balance of India, 2009-2011
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