China Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Report, 2007
The global aluminum consumption grows strongly and can basically digest the increased output: the global aluminum consumption in 2006 was higher than the expectation again with the increase of 8.0%, and the gap between supply and demand was 490 thousand tons. And China was still the most important driver in the global aluminum consumption growth with the growth rate of 22.6%. The increase of consumption in China is reflected by the fields like construction, electric power and transportation and so on.
In is predicted that there will be only small surplus of primary aluminum in the world in 2007 and 2008: about 390 and 110 thousand tons, which means the increase of global aluminum inventories will be quite limited in future two years. At present, the period that the global aluminum inventories can be supplied to consumption is just 5.9 weeks, which is far lower than the average level of 9.3 weeks in the past 30 years. And once the consumption growth surpasses the expectation, the inventories will be reduced furthermore and shape a great support to aluminum price.
In the future two years, the decrease rate of the aluminum oxide price will be quite limited and it is hard to fall below 3000 Yuan/Ton in 2007.
Along with the increase of the output of China aluminum oxide, the dependency on import aluminum ores has been pricked up drastically; it is predicted that the external dependency in 2008 will be increased to 47.3%. And at present, the imported aluminum ores in China are mainly from Indonesia.
In is predicted that there will be only small surplus of primary aluminum in the world in 2007 and 2008: about 390 and 110 thousand tons, which means the increase of global aluminum inventories will be quite limited in future two years. At present, the period that the global aluminum inventories can be supplied to consumption is just 5.9 weeks, which is far lower than the average level of 9.3 weeks in the past 30 years. And once the consumption growth surpasses the expectation, the inventories will be reduced furthermore and shape a great support to aluminum price.
In the future two years, the decrease rate of the aluminum oxide price will be quite limited and it is hard to fall below 3000 Yuan/Ton in 2007.
Along with the increase of the output of China aluminum oxide, the dependency on import aluminum ores has been pricked up drastically; it is predicted that the external dependency in 2008 will be increased to 47.3%. And at present, the imported aluminum ores in China are mainly from Indonesia.
1. ANALYSIS ON PROSPECT OF GLOBAL ALUMINUM CONSUMPTION
1.1. Aluminum is an important raw material of basic industry
1.2. The growth potential of China aluminum consumption is huge
1.3. The substitution of aluminum to other nonferrous metals is emerging
2. ANALYSIS ON CHINA ELECTROLYTIC ALUMINUM INDUSTRY
2.1. The output of primary aluminum keeps on increasing rapidly
2.2. The macro control of the state on electrolytic aluminum industry is still lasting
3. ANALYSIS ON CHINA ALUMINUM OXIDE INDUSTRY
3.1. Domestic aluminum oxide output is still increasing rapidly
3.2. The price of aluminum oxide is hard to decrease a lot
4. ANALYSIS ON SUPPLY OF ALUMINUM ORES
4.1. The global aluminum ore resources are abundant
4.2. The supply of aluminum ores in China still has hidden troubles
5. ANALYSIS ON ALUMINUM PRICE
5.1. The production cost of primary aluminum increases greatly
5.2. The consumption still maintains rapid growth
5.3. The inventory is hard to be enhanced greatly
6. ANALYSIS ON KEY ENTERPRISES
6.1 Jiaozuo Wanfang
6.2 Yunnan Aluminum
6.3 Shenhuo Coal Industry
6.4 Nanshan Aluminum
6.5 Baotou Aluminum
6.6 Zhongfu Industry
6.7 Aluminum Corporation of China Limited
TABLES/FIGURES
Global Aluminum Consumption Structure in 2004
China Aluminum Consumption Structure in 2004
Growth of Global Main Nonferrous Metals Consumption
Changes of Aluminum Applied in Light Cars in North America
Global Contribution Rate of China Primary Aluminum Consumption Growth
Growth of Global Primary Aluminum Consumption
Proportion between Average Aluminum Consumption Per Capita and Urbanization Rate in U.S
Proportion between Average Aluminum Consumption Per Capita and Urbanization Rate in China
Growth Rate of Main Nonferrous Metals Since 2003
Proportions of Aluminum Price vs. Copper Price and Aluminum Price vs. Zinc Price
Annual Production Yield of Primary Aluminum in China
Forecast of Output and Production Capacity Utilization Rate of Primary Aluminum in China
Output Growth and External Dependency of China Aluminum Oxide
Price Tendency of Domestic Current Aluminum Oxides
Reserves Distribution of Global Aluminum Ores
Output Distribution of Global Aluminum Ores in 2006
Import Volume and External Dependency of China Aluminum Ores
Import Proportion of Aluminum Ores from Indonesia in China
Import Volume and Price Tendency of Aluminum Ores in China
Production Costs in Cash of Global Electrolytic Aluminum
Average Electricity Price of Global Primary Aluminum Production in 2005
Year-On-Year Increase of Value Added of Large-scaled Industrial Enterprises in China
Growth Rate of Fixed Asset and Real Estate Investment in China
Rapid Growth of Main Aluminum Consumption Fields in China
Aluminum Storage in Main Futures Exchanges Globally
Actual Control Relationship of Zhongfu Industry
Main Expansion Plans of Electrolytic Aluminum Production Capacity Domestically
Production Capacity and Output Forecast of Electrolytic Aluminum in China
Variation of Production Capacity and Output of Metallurgical Aluminum Oxide in China
Demand-Supply Balance of Global Metallurgical Aluminum Oxide
Demand-Supply Balance of Primary Aluminum Globally and in China
Price and Forecast of Primary Aluminum and Aluminum Oxide
Production Capacity and Output Comparison of Aluminum Ingots of Main Listed Enterprises of Electrolytic Aluminum
Share Composition of Jiaozuo Wanfang (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Jiaozuo Wanfang during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Jiaozuo Wanfang during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Yunnan Aluminum (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Yunnan Aluminum during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Yunnan Aluminum during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Shenhuo Coal Industry (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Shenhuo Coal Industry during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Shenhuo Coal Industry during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Nanshan Aluminum (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Nanshan Aluminum during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Nanshan Aluminum during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Baotou Aluminum (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Baotou Aluminum during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Baotou Aluminum during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Zhongfu Industry (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Zhongfu Industry during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Zhongfu Industry during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Till Q1 2007)
Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Aluminum Oxide of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited during 2004-2009
Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Primary Aluminum of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited during 2004-2009
Global Aluminum Consumption Structure in 2004
China Aluminum Consumption Structure in 2004
Growth of Global Main Nonferrous Metals Consumption
Changes of Aluminum Applied in Light Cars in North America
Global Contribution Rate of China Primary Aluminum Consumption Growth
Growth of Global Primary Aluminum Consumption
Proportion between Average Aluminum Consumption Per Capita and Urbanization Rate in U.S
Proportion between Average Aluminum Consumption Per Capita and Urbanization Rate in China
Growth Rate of Main Nonferrous Metals Since 2003
Proportions of Aluminum Price vs. Copper Price and Aluminum Price vs. Zinc Price
Annual Production Yield of Primary Aluminum in China
Forecast of Output and Production Capacity Utilization Rate of Primary Aluminum in China
Output Growth and External Dependency of China Aluminum Oxide
Price Tendency of Domestic Current Aluminum Oxides
Reserves Distribution of Global Aluminum Ores
Output Distribution of Global Aluminum Ores in 2006
Import Volume and External Dependency of China Aluminum Ores
Import Proportion of Aluminum Ores from Indonesia in China
Import Volume and Price Tendency of Aluminum Ores in China
Production Costs in Cash of Global Electrolytic Aluminum
Average Electricity Price of Global Primary Aluminum Production in 2005
Year-On-Year Increase of Value Added of Large-scaled Industrial Enterprises in China
Growth Rate of Fixed Asset and Real Estate Investment in China
Rapid Growth of Main Aluminum Consumption Fields in China
Aluminum Storage in Main Futures Exchanges Globally
Actual Control Relationship of Zhongfu Industry
Main Expansion Plans of Electrolytic Aluminum Production Capacity Domestically
Production Capacity and Output Forecast of Electrolytic Aluminum in China
Variation of Production Capacity and Output of Metallurgical Aluminum Oxide in China
Demand-Supply Balance of Global Metallurgical Aluminum Oxide
Demand-Supply Balance of Primary Aluminum Globally and in China
Price and Forecast of Primary Aluminum and Aluminum Oxide
Production Capacity and Output Comparison of Aluminum Ingots of Main Listed Enterprises of Electrolytic Aluminum
Share Composition of Jiaozuo Wanfang (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Jiaozuo Wanfang during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Jiaozuo Wanfang during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Yunnan Aluminum (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Yunnan Aluminum during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Yunnan Aluminum during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Shenhuo Coal Industry (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Shenhuo Coal Industry during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Shenhuo Coal Industry during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Nanshan Aluminum (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Nanshan Aluminum during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Nanshan Aluminum during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Baotou Aluminum (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Baotou Aluminum during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Baotou Aluminum during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Zhongfu Industry (Till Q1 2007)
Product Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Zhongfu Industry during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Zhongfu Industry during 2004-2009
Share Composition of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Till Q1 2007)
Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Aluminum Oxide of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited during 2004-2009
Output and Sales Volume Statistics and Forecast of Primary Aluminum of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited during 2004-2009
Profit Statistics and Forecast of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited during 2004-2009
