Global Wind Turbine Market, 2nd Edition

Date: November 22, 2011
Pages: 174
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Report type: Strategic Report
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Global Wind Turbine Market, 2nd Edition
The global wind turbine market experienced its first decline in over five years in 2010, dropping 15.9% to $42.3 billion as the pace of turbine installations in most countries slowed considerably. Total megawatts (MW) installed was down by 5.3% to 38,079 MW for 2010 and would have been much less if China had not taken a commanding lead in the market, installing almost half of all new global wind capacity during the year. The U.S., on the other hand, only installed half as much new capacity in 2010 as it did in 2009.

Despite continuing to be the largest wind turbine market for 2011, China's will no longer maintain its stratospheric growth in the market. China's wind turbine installations in 2011 will be 19,300 MW, just 2.0% more than in 2010. From a financial perspective the news is much worse, as still dropping turbine prices will force the Chinese wind turbine market down by 7.1% in 2011, a drop that will be only slightly recovered in 2012.

In the short term, curtailment of already installed wind systems because of inadequate transmission systems are going to be a large prohibitive factor against new wind developments in China and, to a lesser extent, in the U.S. and India. SBI Energy sees new wind turbine installations up by 12.0% in 2011 over 2010, but up only another 8.3% in 2012. In fact, it will not be until 2015 or 2016 that transmission issues in China are resolved sufficiently that the country will again achieve double digit growth in wind installations.

The U.S. continues to be the top import country for wind turbine generating sets in 2011, but the UK and Germany rose in ranking over Canada from 2010. Together these four countries account for just over half of all imports. Exports are typically dominated by Denmark and Germany, which together provide 60% of the world’s wind turbine generating set exports. However, total exports will be up significantly in 2011 to $5.9 billion as manufacturers in soft wind markets such as Germany and Spain aggressively expand to other regions. Despite its position as the number one regional market in 2010 and again in 2011, China’s wind turbine industry was almost entirely domestic and the country’s wind turbine manufacturers exported very little product.

The wind turbine market is still most heavily influenced by government subsidies and this will continue through the next decade. The support or neglect of governments for wind energy is the main driver behind SBI Energy's three different forecast scenarios in this report. In the median scenario the world wind turbine market is going to climb to $72.8 billion in 2015, with a world total of 442 GW installed. With only moderate government help, the world market is going to reach $138.8 billion in 2020 with a cumulative 876 GW of wind turbines installed world wide. However, with poor government support the 2020 wind turbine market could be as low as $66.6 billion, and with exceptional government support the market could reach up to $326.9 billion at the end of the decade.
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Global Wind Turbine Market
  Figure 1-1 Wind Turbine Installations by Country by Year, 2006-2010 (in MW)
  Wind Turbine Competitors
  Figure 1-2 Market by Competitor, 2011 (in percent)
  China
  U.S.
  India
  Figure 1-3 Top Five Global Wind Turbine Market Countries, 2006-2010 (in billion $)
  Germany
  Spain
  Wind Turbine Generating Set Imports and Exports
  Figure 1-4 Exports of Wind Turbine Generating Sets, 2000-2020 (in billion $ and percent)
Wind Turbine Market Forecast
  Figure 1-5 Global Cumulative Installed Wind Forecast, 2011-2020 (in GW)
  China Forecast
  U.S. Forecast
  India Forecast
  Figure 1-6 Global Wind Turbine Market Forecast by Country, Median Scenario, 2011-2020 (in billion $)
  Germany Forecast
  Spain Forecast
Wind Turbine Market Trends
  Figure 1-7 Key Drivers & Barriers Affecting the Wind Turbine Market
  Wind Turbine Costs & Energy Prices
  Table 1-1 Estimated Levelized Cost of New U.S. Generation Resources, 2016* (2009 $/megawatt-hour; MWh)
  The Offshore Wind Turbine Market
  Table 1-2 Cumulative Offshore Wind Installations by Geographical Region, 2006-2020 (in MW)
  Curtailment Concerns
  Wind Turbines: Bigger is Better
  Figure 1-8 Average Size of Installed Wind Turbines, 2006-2011 (in kW)
  Employment Trends
  Table 1-3 Wind Industry Jobs by Country, 2010-2020
  Financial Trends: FITs and Investments
  Figure 1-9 Countries with Wind Feed in Tariffs, 2011
  Small Turbine Trends

CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION

Scope
Methodology
  A Note on Trade Codes and Import and Export Data
  Table 2-1 Wind Turbine Import and Export HS Codes
Terminology
Wind Turbine Technology
  Table 2-2 Turbine Component Weights and Costs (in percent)
  Parts of a Nacelle Assembly
  Figure 2-1 The parts of a Wind Turbine
  Direct & Indirect Drives
  Figure 2-2 A Direct Drive Wind Turbine
  Table 2-3 Comparison of Direct and Indirect Wind Turbines
Onshore versus Offshore Wind Turbines
Wind Energy Associations Worldwide
  Table 2-4 Wind Associations and Groups

CHAPTER 3 THE MARKET

The Global Wind Turbine Market
  Figure 3-1 Global Wind Turbine Capacity and Electricity Generated by Wind, 2006-2010 (in GW for capacity and billion kWh for generation)
  Figure 3-2 Global Wind Market, 2006-2010 (in billion $ and GW Installed)
  Asia is Chasing Europe for Regional Wind Lead
  Table 3-1 Cumulative Wind Capacity by Geographical Region, 2006-2010 (in MW)
  China Now Leads Wind Turbine Installations
  Figure 3-3 Wind Turbine Installations by Country by Year, 2006-2010 (in MW)
  Figure 3-4 Top Five Global Wind Turbine Market Countries, 2006-2010 (in billion $)
  Offshore Becoming a Competitive Market
  Table 3-2 Cumulative Offshore Wind Installations by Geographical Region, 2006-2010 (in MW)
Top National Markets
  Figure 3-5 Top 10 Countries for Single Year Wind Installations and Cumulative Installs, 2010 (in percent)
  China
  Figure 3-6 China’s Wind Turbine Import, Export & Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)
  Table 3-3 Top Chinese Provinces for Yearly & Cumulative Wind Installations, 2010 (in MW installed)
  Figure 3-7 Total Wind Turbines by Province/Municipality, 2010 (in MW)
  Table 3-4 China’s Onshore & Offshore Wind Installations by Year, 2006-2011 (in MW)
  U.S.
  Figure 3-8 U.S. Wind Turbine Import, Export & Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)
  Table 3-5 Top U.S. Import & Export Countries for Wind Turbine Generator Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)
  Figure 3-9 Total Wind Turbine Installations by State, 2010 (in MW)
  Table 3-6 Top U.S. States for Yearly & Cumulative Wind Installations, 2010 (in MW installed)
  India
  Figure 3-10 India’s Wind Turbine Import, Export & Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)
  Table 3-7 Top Indian Export Countries for Wind Turbine Generator Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)
  Table 3-8 India’s Wind Installations by State, March 2007- March 2011 (in MW)
  Germany
  Figure 3-11 Germany’s Wind Turbine Import, Export & Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)
  Table 3-9 Top German Import & Export Countries for Wind Turbine Generator Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)
  Table 3-10 Germany’s Onshore & Offshore Wind Installations by Year, 2006-2011 (in MW)
  Spain
  Figure 3-12 Spain’s Wind Turbine Import, Export & Domestic Market, 2006-2011 (in million $)
  Table 3-11 Top Spanish Import & Export Countries for Wind Turbine Generator Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)
  Others
  Table 3-12 Total Offshore Wind Capacity by Country, 2006-2011 (in MW)
Wind Turbine Generating Set Imports and Exports
  Figure 3-13 Exports of Wind Turbine Generating Sets, 2000-2011 (in billion $ and percent)
  Figure 3-14 YoY Change in Global Wind Turbine Exports and Wind Capacity Additions, 1998-2011 (in percent)
  Top Wind Turbine Generating Set Trade Countries
  Table 3-13 Top 10 Export Countries of Wind Turbine Generating Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)
  Table 3-14 Top 10 Import Countries of Wind Turbine Generating Sets, 2006-2010 (in million $)

CHAPTER 4 MARKET TRENDS

Global Use of Wind Energy
  Figure 4-1 Global Use of Renewable Energy by Type, 2006-2010 (in billion kWh & percent)
  Figure 4-2 Total Global Renewable Energy Capacity by Country, 2010 (in GW)
  Drivers and Barriers for the Wind Turbine Market
  Figure 4-3 Key Drivers & Barriers Affecting the Wind Turbine Market
  Wind Energy Requirements Around the World
  Table 4-1 Countries with Wind-Specific Energy Generation Requirements, 2010
  China’s Current Five Year Energy Plan and the Seven Wind Bases
  Table 4-2 China’s Wind Base Program, 2010-2020 (in MW)
Wind Turbine Costs & Energy Prices
  Table 4-3 Wind Turbine Cost Structure (in percent)
  Wind Turbine Manufacturing Costs
  Figure 4-4 Average Wind Turbine Prices, 2000-2011 (in $/kW)
  Figure 4-5 Producer Price Index for Turbines & Generator Sets, and Parts of Same, 2000-2011 (index)
  Comparing Wind Energy Costs to Other Types of Electricity Generation
  Table 4-4 Levelized Cost of Wind Energy & Financial Gap by Country, 2008 (in $/MWh)
  Table 4-5 Estimated Levelized Cost of New U.S. Generation Resources, 2016* (2009 $/MWh)
Curtailment Concerns
  Transmission and Connection Issues
  Utilization Capacity of Wind Systems
  Table 4-6 Capacity Factor by Type of Electricity Generation, 2008 (in percent)
  Wind Energy Curtailment in China
  Wind Energy Curtailment in the U.S.
  Table 4-7 Wind Curtailment by Area, 2007-2010 (in GWh and % of potential wind generation)
Offshore Trends
  Table 4-8 Typical Onshore & Offshore Wind Farm Characteristics, 2008
  Figure 4-6 Cumulative Offshore Wind Turbine Foundations by Type, 2010 (in %)
Wind Turbines: Bigger is Better
  Figure 4-7 Average Size of Installed Wind Turbines, 2006-2011 (in kW)
  Towards the 20 MW Turbine
  Figure 4-8 Largest Capacity Wind Turbine by Year, 1985-2009
  Average Wind Turbines Size Will Continue to Grow
Employment Trends
  Table 4-10 Wind Industry Jobs by Country, 2010-2020
Financial Trends
  Wind FITs
  Figure 4-9 Countries with Wind Feed in Tariffs, 2011
  Non-FIT Government funding
  Investments in the Wind Market
  Table 4-11 Renewable and Wind Investments, 2004-2010 (in billion $)
  Figure 4-10 Global Wind Investments, 2004-2011 (in thousand $/MW)
Research Trends
  Wind Research Funding
  Table 4-12 Government Wind Research Funding in Key Countries, 2006-2010 (in million $)
  Key Research Focus Areas
Small Turbine Trends
  Figure 4-11 Small Wind Turbine Installations for the U.S., UK & China, 2009-2011 (in cumulative number of systems installed & cumulative MW installed)
  Hybrid Wind Systems

CHAPTER 5 GLOBAL WIND TURBINE FORECAST

A Note on the different Scenarios
Global Forecast
  Figure 5-1 Global Cumulative Installed Wind Forecast, 2011-2020 (in GW)
  Figure 5-2 Global Wind Turbine Market Forecast, 2011-2020 (in billion $)
  Wind Growth will be moderate in the short term
  Figure 5-3 Cumulative Global Wind Forecast by Country, 2011-2015 (in GW)
  Table 5-1 Global Wind Turbine Market Forecast, 2011-2015 (in billion $)
  The Wind Market’s Long Term Forecast
  Figure 5-4 Global Wind Forecast by Country, 2016-2020 (in GW)
  Table 5-2 Global Wind Turbine Market Forecast, 2016-2020 (in billion $)
  Figure 5-5 Key Geographic Wind Turbine Markets (Median Scenario), 2010, 2020 (in percent of market)
  Pricing Forecast
  Figure 5-6 Average Wind Turbine Prices Forecast, 2011-2020 (in $/kW)
  Exports to Decline in Long Term
  Figure 5-7 Export Forecast of Wind Turbine Generating Sets (Median Scenario), 2011-2020 (in billion $ and percent)
  Offshore Forecast
  Table 5-3 Total Offshore Wind Capacity by Country, 2010-2020 (in MW)
China Forecast
  Figure 5-8 China Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)
  Table 5-4 China Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in GW)
U.S. Forecast
  Figure 5-9 U.S. Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)
  Table 5-5 U.S. Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in GW)
India Forecast
  Figure 5-10 India Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)
  Table 5-6 India Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in GW)
Germany Forecast
  Figure 5-11 Germany Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)
  Table 5-7 Germany Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in GW)
Spain Forecast
  Figure 5-12 Spain Forecast: Wind Turbine Market, 2011-2020 (in billion $)
  Table 5-8 Spain Forecast: Installed Wind Turbines by Year, 2011-2020 (in MW)
Upcoming Countries
  Table 5-9 Forecast of Other Major Wind Countries, 2010-2020

CHAPTER 6 COMPETITORS


FIRST TIER COMPETITORS

  Figure 6-1 Market by Competitor, 2011 (in percent)
Dongfang Electric Corporation
  Overview
  Performance
  Figure 6-2 DEC’s Wind Revenue and Wind Turbines Produced, 2007-2011 (in million yuan & MW)
  Products
  New Developments
Enercon
  Overview
  Performance
  Table 6-1 Enercon’s Cumulative Wind Turbine Installations by Country, November 2010 (in MW)
  Products
  Table 6-2 Enercon’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
Gamesa
  Overview
  Performance
  Figure 6-3 Gamesa’s Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2006-2011 (in million euros & MW)
  Products
  Table 6-3 Gamesa’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
General Electric
  Overview
  Performance
  Figure 6-4 GE’s Energy Infrastructure Segment Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2006-2011 (in billion $ & units shipped)
  Products
  Table 6-4 GE’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
Goldwind
  Overview
  Performance
  Figure 6-5 Goldwind’s Revenue and Wind Turbines Installed, 2006-2011 (in million yuan & MW)
  Products
  Table 6-5 Goldwind’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
REpower
  Overview
  Performance
  Figure 6-6 REpowers’s Revenue and Wind Turbines Installed, 2006-FY2011 (in million euros & MW)
  Products
  Table 6-6 REpower’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
Siemens
  Performance
  Figure 6-7 Siemens’ Renewables Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2006-2011 (in million euros & MW)
  Products
  Table 6-7 Siemens’ Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
Sinovel
  Overview
  Performance
  Figure 6-8 Sinovel’s Revenue and Wind Turbines Installed, 2008-2011 (in million yuan & MW)
  Products
  Table 6-8 Sinovel’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
Suzlon
  Overview
  Performance
  Figure 6-9 Suzlon’s Consolidated Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2008-2011 (in billion rupees & MW)
  Products
  Table 6-9 Suzlon’s Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
Vestas
  Overview
  Performance
  Figure 6-10 Vestas’ Revenue and Wind Turbines Shipped, 2006-2011 (in million euros & MW)
  Products
  Table 6-10 Vestas’ Wind Turbine Products, 2011
  New Developments
Second Tier Competitors
Clipper Windpower
Mingyang
Nordex
United Power

APPENDIX: COMPANY CONTACT INFORMATION
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