The Impact of New US and EU Tariff Policies on China's Electric Vehicle Industry
On May 14, 2024, US President Joe Biden announced an increase or imposition of tariffs on Chinese-made goods valued at US$18 billion to protect American workers and businesses. These tariffs primarily target critical industries impacting the future economy and national security of the United States, with a notable tariff of up to 100% on electric vehicles (EVs). Concurrently, the European Union's (EU's) anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs, initiated last year, led to corresponding measures announced on June 12, 2024. By imposing punitive high tariffs on Chinese EVs, the US aims to pressure its allies, particularly those in the EU, to align their policies with US interests. This report presents two major viewpoints on how China's excess EV production affects or will affect the global market, discusses China's short-, medium-, and long-term goals for EVs, explores measures by both the US and the EU to halt low-cost Chinese EV imports, and examines the impact of high US and EU tariffs on China's EV industry.
Table of Contents
1.DIFFERENT INTEPRETATIONS OF CHINA'S EXCESS EV PRODUCTION CAPACITY
1.1 Viewpoint 1: Global Oversupply Due to China's Excess EV Production Capacity
1.2 Viewpoint 2: Growing Global EV Market Under Net-Zero Commitments
2. CHINA'S ACCELERATED CAPACITY EXPANSION AIMS TO CAPTURE GLOBAL MARKET SHARE
2.1 Short-Term: China's EV Production Primarily for Domestic Consumption
2.2 Medium to Long-Term: China's Continuous Production Expansion May Lead to Global Supply-Demand Imbalance
3. MEASURES BY THE US AND EU TO HALT LOW-COST CHINESE EV IMPORTS
3.1 US
3.1.1 US Dramatically Increases EV Tariffs to 100%
3.1.2 Tariff Increases Serve Both Trade and Political Purposes Amid US Presidential Election
3.2 EU
3.2.1 Chinese EV Exports to Europe Not Considered Dumping but May Involve High Government Subsidies
3.2.2 High Tariffs Still Allow Profit Margins for Chinese Cars in Europe
4. IMPACT OF HIGH US AND EU TARIFFS ON CHINA-MADE ELECTRIC VEHICLES
4.1 US
4.1.1 Minimal Imports of Chinese EVs to the US
4.1.2 Short-Term: Difficulty Finding Third-Country Production Sites for US-Bound Products Leads Chinese Carmakers to Southeast Asian Markets
4.1.3 Medium to Long-Term: Increased Tariffs on Lithium Batteries and Minerals Raise US-Made EV Costs
4.2 EU
4.2.1 Concerns of European Automakers Facing Retaliation
4.2.2 EU Tariffs Penalize Consumers’ Purchase of China-made EVs
4.2.3 Chinese Carmakers Expanding Production in Europe to Avoid Tariffs
4.2.4 Shift of Chinese Export Markets from Europe to Southeast Asia
5.MIC PERSPECTIVE
LIST OF COMPANIES
1.DIFFERENT INTEPRETATIONS OF CHINA'S EXCESS EV PRODUCTION CAPACITY
1.1 Viewpoint 1: Global Oversupply Due to China's Excess EV Production Capacity
1.2 Viewpoint 2: Growing Global EV Market Under Net-Zero Commitments
2. CHINA'S ACCELERATED CAPACITY EXPANSION AIMS TO CAPTURE GLOBAL MARKET SHARE
2.1 Short-Term: China's EV Production Primarily for Domestic Consumption
2.2 Medium to Long-Term: China's Continuous Production Expansion May Lead to Global Supply-Demand Imbalance
3. MEASURES BY THE US AND EU TO HALT LOW-COST CHINESE EV IMPORTS
3.1 US
3.1.1 US Dramatically Increases EV Tariffs to 100%
3.1.2 Tariff Increases Serve Both Trade and Political Purposes Amid US Presidential Election
3.2 EU
3.2.1 Chinese EV Exports to Europe Not Considered Dumping but May Involve High Government Subsidies
3.2.2 High Tariffs Still Allow Profit Margins for Chinese Cars in Europe
4. IMPACT OF HIGH US AND EU TARIFFS ON CHINA-MADE ELECTRIC VEHICLES
4.1 US
4.1.1 Minimal Imports of Chinese EVs to the US
4.1.2 Short-Term: Difficulty Finding Third-Country Production Sites for US-Bound Products Leads Chinese Carmakers to Southeast Asian Markets
4.1.3 Medium to Long-Term: Increased Tariffs on Lithium Batteries and Minerals Raise US-Made EV Costs
4.2 EU
4.2.1 Concerns of European Automakers Facing Retaliation
4.2.2 EU Tariffs Penalize Consumers’ Purchase of China-made EVs
4.2.3 Chinese Carmakers Expanding Production in Europe to Avoid Tariffs
4.2.4 Shift of Chinese Export Markets from Europe to Southeast Asia
5.MIC PERSPECTIVE
LIST OF COMPANIES
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Geographic Distribution of the Global Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain in 2023
Figure 1: Geographic Distribution of the Global Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain in 2023
