Vietnam Fertilizer Comprehensive Report Q4.2016
Fertilizer market continued to encounter oversupply in the period 2014-2015, nutrient supply by component is estimated to increase 4.03% while demand went up just 2.04%. The oversupply within the fertilizer industry and other exogenous factors affecting the global supply from 2014 until now are the lack of natural gas supply, the increase in volatility associated to trade measures and the sharp decline in oil prices.
Fertilizer prices decreased over years, mainly caused by the oversupply and the drop in prices of raw materials.
In Vietnam, players in the fertilizer industry are classified by business forms, namely Manufacturing Enterprises (produce mainly Urea, Phosphate, NPK and DAP), Import and Export Enterprises (import 100% of Kali and SA) and Trading Enterprises.
Average supply always exceeds 148% compared with demand. Domestic fertilizer production focused on single fertilizers. NPK and DAP are the only mixed fertilizers produced but the quality standard is still not satisfied yet, especially DAP. NPK accounts for over 40% of total production volume, followed by Urea, Phosphate and other mized fertilizers. Meanwhile, Potash and SA are nearly impossible to produce domestically, therefore 100% of which has to be imported.
Fertilizer consumption tends to drop over years due to the effects of agricultural products’ export price, the decrease in arable land and the negative impact of weather. Fertilizer import fluctuated continuously through years due to the impacts of domestic supply sources as well as the import tax policies of Vietnam and major import markets.
Export has continuously dropped since 2012, caused by the competition with Chinese fertilizers in Korea, Cambodia, etc. and the effect of El Nino on the countries in the region. Although following the global price trend, the increase and decrease rates of domestic price are always lower than those of the world. Presently, the technology in Vietnam is very various, ranging from old-fashioned to modern ones. In which, NPK is the easieast fertilizer to produce, therefore its production technology is the most various.
Fertilizer Industry is in saturation state, products of domestic companies have an intense competition with imported ones. Meanwhile, fertilizer demand tends to drop, leading to a downward pressure on prices in the period 2016 – 2020f.
Fertilizer prices decreased over years, mainly caused by the oversupply and the drop in prices of raw materials.
In Vietnam, players in the fertilizer industry are classified by business forms, namely Manufacturing Enterprises (produce mainly Urea, Phosphate, NPK and DAP), Import and Export Enterprises (import 100% of Kali and SA) and Trading Enterprises.
Average supply always exceeds 148% compared with demand. Domestic fertilizer production focused on single fertilizers. NPK and DAP are the only mixed fertilizers produced but the quality standard is still not satisfied yet, especially DAP. NPK accounts for over 40% of total production volume, followed by Urea, Phosphate and other mized fertilizers. Meanwhile, Potash and SA are nearly impossible to produce domestically, therefore 100% of which has to be imported.
Fertilizer consumption tends to drop over years due to the effects of agricultural products’ export price, the decrease in arable land and the negative impact of weather. Fertilizer import fluctuated continuously through years due to the impacts of domestic supply sources as well as the import tax policies of Vietnam and major import markets.
Export has continuously dropped since 2012, caused by the competition with Chinese fertilizers in Korea, Cambodia, etc. and the effect of El Nino on the countries in the region. Although following the global price trend, the increase and decrease rates of domestic price are always lower than those of the world. Presently, the technology in Vietnam is very various, ranging from old-fashioned to modern ones. In which, NPK is the easieast fertilizer to produce, therefore its production technology is the most various.
Fertilizer Industry is in saturation state, products of domestic companies have an intense competition with imported ones. Meanwhile, fertilizer demand tends to drop, leading to a downward pressure on prices in the period 2016 – 2020f.
Executive summary
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1. Macroeconomic situation
Figure 1. GDP growth, 2010 – 9 months/2016
Figure 2. CPI fluctuations, 2014 – 9/2016
Figure 3. VND/CNY exchange rate, 1/2016 – 9/2016
Figure 4. VND/USD exchange rate, 3/2015 – 9/2016
Figure 5. Foreign Exchange Reserve, 2010 - 2014
Figure 6. Vietnam’s export and import turnover, Q1/2014 – Q3/2015
1.2. Legal Barriers – Regulations on manufacturing, trading and use of fertilizer
1.2. Legal Barriers – Regulations on Import and Export tax
1.3. Trade Agreements
2. INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
2.1. Global Fertilizer Market
2.1.1. Supply-Demand
Figure 7. Fertilizer Demand by Nutrients and Nutrients Supply, 2012 – 2015e
2.1.2. Import-Export
Figure 8. Fertilizer export, 2010 - 2015e
Figure 9. Fertilizer import, 2010 - 2015e
Figure 10. Export structure by volume, 2014 – 2015e
Figure 11. Import structure by volume, 2014 – 2015e
2.1.3. Price Movement
Figure 12. Price movement of main fertilizers, 2010 – 9/2016
2.1.4. Fertilizer Production and Consumption in typical countries
2.2. Vietnam Fertilizer Market
2.2.1. Industry Background
2.2.2. Definition and Classification
Figure 13. Structure of major fertilizers, 2014
2.2.3. Scale and Feature
Figure 14. Revenue growth rate by year, 2010 - 2014
Figure 15. Market share by revenue
Figure 16. Structure of Rice Area by Crop
Figure 17. Paddy Field Area
Figure 18. Rice Production By Crop
2.2.4. Major Activities
2.2.5. Inputs
Figure 19. Coal Consumption by industry
Figure 20. Coal reserve by area
Figure 21. Coal supply and demand forecast, 2015-2030
Figure 22. Ore reserve exploration by type, 2014
Figure 23. Ore demand forecast for fertilizer production, 2015-2030
Figure 24. Natural Gas Consumption By Sectors
2.2.6. Production Technology
Table 1. NPK production technology
2.2.7. Supply-Demand
Figure 25. Supply - Demand, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
Figure 26. Production and consumption of domestic enterprises, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
Figure 27. Domestic Production, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
Table 2. Production capacity of large domestic enterprises, 9/2016
Figure 28. Fertilizers demand and consumption, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
2.2.8. Import-Export
Figure 29. Structure of import volume by countries, 2014 – 2015
Figure 30. Fertilizer import, 9 months/2015 – 9 months/2016
Figure 31. Fertilizers import structure by country, 9 months/2015
Figure 32. Fertilizers import structure by country, 9 months/2016
Figure 33. Fertilizer export, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
Figure 34. Structure of export volume by country, 2014 - 2015
Figure 35. Fertilizers export by country, 9 months/2015 – 9 months/2016
2.2.9. Inventories
Figure 36. Inventories, 2010 – 2015e
2.2.10. Price Movement
Figure 37. Fertilizer Price movement, 2014 – 9/2016
Figure 38. Major sea ports in Vietnam, 2015
2.2.11. Transportation and Distribution
2.3. Industry Risks
Figure 39. Worldwide coal and oil price movement, 2011 – 9/2016
Figure 40. Salt – marsh, Q2/2016
Figure 41. Crop Structure, 2014
Figure 42. Area of paddy fields over years
Figure 43. Fertilizer demand by plant
Figure 44. Agricultural export, 2014 - 2015
2.3. Industry Risks – 5-Force Analysis
2.4. Planning and Forecast
2.4.1. Planning
2.4.2. Global forecast
Figure 45. Forecast world demand for fertilizer nutrients - world supply of nutrients, 2014 – 2018f
2.4.3. Domestic forecast
Figure 46. Supply – Demand Forecast, 2016f - 2020f
3. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
3.1. Top 10 Enterprises
Table 3. Top 10 enterprises with largest revenues in 2015 (Group of listed enterprises)
3.2. Business Performance Indicator Group
Figure 47. Net revenues, 2014 – 2015
Figure 48. EBITDA, 2015
Figure 49. Financial Cost, 2014 – 2015
Figure 50. Sales Cost, 2014 – 2015
Figure 51. Enterprise Management Cost, 2014 – 2015
3.3. Financial Indicator Group
Figure 52. Total Assets, 2014 – 2015
Figure 53. Inventory turnover, 2015
Figure 54. Receivables turnover, 2015
Figure 55. Profitability indicators, 2015
3.4. Cash Flow Indicator Group
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1. Macroeconomic situation
Figure 1. GDP growth, 2010 – 9 months/2016
Figure 2. CPI fluctuations, 2014 – 9/2016
Figure 3. VND/CNY exchange rate, 1/2016 – 9/2016
Figure 4. VND/USD exchange rate, 3/2015 – 9/2016
Figure 5. Foreign Exchange Reserve, 2010 - 2014
Figure 6. Vietnam’s export and import turnover, Q1/2014 – Q3/2015
1.2. Legal Barriers – Regulations on manufacturing, trading and use of fertilizer
1.2. Legal Barriers – Regulations on Import and Export tax
1.3. Trade Agreements
2. INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
2.1. Global Fertilizer Market
2.1.1. Supply-Demand
Figure 7. Fertilizer Demand by Nutrients and Nutrients Supply, 2012 – 2015e
2.1.2. Import-Export
Figure 8. Fertilizer export, 2010 - 2015e
Figure 9. Fertilizer import, 2010 - 2015e
Figure 10. Export structure by volume, 2014 – 2015e
Figure 11. Import structure by volume, 2014 – 2015e
2.1.3. Price Movement
Figure 12. Price movement of main fertilizers, 2010 – 9/2016
2.1.4. Fertilizer Production and Consumption in typical countries
2.2. Vietnam Fertilizer Market
2.2.1. Industry Background
2.2.2. Definition and Classification
Figure 13. Structure of major fertilizers, 2014
2.2.3. Scale and Feature
Figure 14. Revenue growth rate by year, 2010 - 2014
Figure 15. Market share by revenue
Figure 16. Structure of Rice Area by Crop
Figure 17. Paddy Field Area
Figure 18. Rice Production By Crop
2.2.4. Major Activities
2.2.5. Inputs
Figure 19. Coal Consumption by industry
Figure 20. Coal reserve by area
Figure 21. Coal supply and demand forecast, 2015-2030
Figure 22. Ore reserve exploration by type, 2014
Figure 23. Ore demand forecast for fertilizer production, 2015-2030
Figure 24. Natural Gas Consumption By Sectors
2.2.6. Production Technology
Table 1. NPK production technology
2.2.7. Supply-Demand
Figure 25. Supply - Demand, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
Figure 26. Production and consumption of domestic enterprises, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
Figure 27. Domestic Production, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
Table 2. Production capacity of large domestic enterprises, 9/2016
Figure 28. Fertilizers demand and consumption, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
2.2.8. Import-Export
Figure 29. Structure of import volume by countries, 2014 – 2015
Figure 30. Fertilizer import, 9 months/2015 – 9 months/2016
Figure 31. Fertilizers import structure by country, 9 months/2015
Figure 32. Fertilizers import structure by country, 9 months/2016
Figure 33. Fertilizer export, 2010 – 9 months/2016e
Figure 34. Structure of export volume by country, 2014 - 2015
Figure 35. Fertilizers export by country, 9 months/2015 – 9 months/2016
2.2.9. Inventories
Figure 36. Inventories, 2010 – 2015e
2.2.10. Price Movement
Figure 37. Fertilizer Price movement, 2014 – 9/2016
Figure 38. Major sea ports in Vietnam, 2015
2.2.11. Transportation and Distribution
2.3. Industry Risks
Figure 39. Worldwide coal and oil price movement, 2011 – 9/2016
Figure 40. Salt – marsh, Q2/2016
Figure 41. Crop Structure, 2014
Figure 42. Area of paddy fields over years
Figure 43. Fertilizer demand by plant
Figure 44. Agricultural export, 2014 - 2015
2.3. Industry Risks – 5-Force Analysis
2.4. Planning and Forecast
2.4.1. Planning
2.4.2. Global forecast
Figure 45. Forecast world demand for fertilizer nutrients - world supply of nutrients, 2014 – 2018f
2.4.3. Domestic forecast
Figure 46. Supply – Demand Forecast, 2016f - 2020f
3. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
3.1. Top 10 Enterprises
Table 3. Top 10 enterprises with largest revenues in 2015 (Group of listed enterprises)
3.2. Business Performance Indicator Group
Figure 47. Net revenues, 2014 – 2015
Figure 48. EBITDA, 2015
Figure 49. Financial Cost, 2014 – 2015
Figure 50. Sales Cost, 2014 – 2015
Figure 51. Enterprise Management Cost, 2014 – 2015
3.3. Financial Indicator Group
Figure 52. Total Assets, 2014 – 2015
Figure 53. Inventory turnover, 2015
Figure 54. Receivables turnover, 2015
Figure 55. Profitability indicators, 2015
3.4. Cash Flow Indicator Group
