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Vietnam Fertilizer Comprehensive Report Q2.2017

May 2017 | 108 pages | ID: VA67EDC422FEN
Vietnam Industry Research And Consultant (VIRAC)

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Fertilizer market continued to encounter oversupply in the period 2014-2015, nutrient supply by component is estimated to increase 4.03% while demand went up just 2.04%. The oversupply within the fertilizer industry and other exogenous factors affecting the global supply from 2014 until now are the lack of natural gas supply, the increase in volatility associated to trade measures and the sharp decline in oil prices.

Fertilizer prices decreased over years, mainly caused by the oversupply and the drop in prices of raw materials.

In Vietnam, players in the fertilizer industry are classified by business forms, namely Manufacturing Enterprises (produce mainly Urea, Phosphate, NPK and DAP), Import and Export Enterprises (import 100% of Kali and SA) and Trading Enterprises.

Average supply always exceeds 148% compared with demand. Domestic fertilizer production focused on single fertilizers. NPK and DAP are the only mixed fertilizers produced but the quality standard is still not satisfied yet, especially DAP. NPK accounts for over 40% of total production volume, followed by Urea, Phosphate and other mized fertilizers. Meanwhile, Potash and SA are nearly impossible to produce domestically, therefore 100% of which has to be imported.

Fertilizer consumption tends to drop over years due to the effects of agricultural products’ export price, the decrease in arable land and the negative impact of weather. Fertilizer import fluctuated continuously through years due to the impacts of domestic supply sources as well as the import tax policies of Vietnam and major import markets.

Export has continuously dropped since 2012, caused by the competition with Chinese fertilizers in Korea, Cambodia, etc. and the effect of El Nino on the countries in the region. Although following the global price trend, the increase and decrease rates of domestic price are always lower than those of the world. Presently, the technology in Vietnam is very various, ranging from old-fashioned to modern ones. In which, NPK is the easieast fertilizer to produce, therefore its production technology is the most various.

Fertilizer Industry is in saturation state, products of domestic companies have an intense competition with imported ones. Meanwhile, fertilizer demand tends to drop, leading to a downward pressure on prices in the period 2016 – 2020f.
Executive summary

1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

1.1. Macroeconomic situation
  Figure 1. GDP growth, 2011 – 2016e
  Figure 2. CPI fluctuations by month, 1/2014 - 3/2017
  Figure 3. VND/CNY exchange rate, 1/2016 – 3/2017
  Figure 4. VND/USD exchange rate, 3/2015 - 3/2017
  Figure 5. Export and import turnover by quarter, 2015 - Q1/2017
1.2. Legal Barriers – Regulations on manufacturing, trading and use of fertilizer
1.3. Trade Agreements
  Figure 6. Vietnam Integration Process from 1995 until now
  Table 1. Tax schedule of Vietnam – EAEU Free Trade Agreement

2. INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

2.1. Global Fertilizer Market
  2.1.1. Supply-Demand
  Figure 7. Fertilizer Demand by Nutrients and Nutrients Supply, 2012 – 2015e
  2.1.2. Import-Export
  Figure 8. Fertilizer import, 2012 - 2016e
  Figure 9. Export structure by volume, 2016e
  Figure 10. Import structure by volume, 2016e
  2.1.3. Price Movement
  Figure 11. Price movement of main fertilizers, 1/2012 – 3/2017
  2.1.4. Fertilizer Production and Consumption in typical countries
2.2. Vietnam Fertilizer Market
  2.2.1. Industry Background
  2.2.2. Definition and Classification
  Figure 12. Structure of major fertilizers, 2014
  2.2.3. Scale and Feature
  Figure 13. Revenue growth rate by year, 2010 – 2015
  Figure 14. Market share by revenue, 2015
  2.2.4. Major Activities
  2.2.5. Inputs
  Figure 15. Coal Consumption by industry
  Figure 16. Coal reserve by area
  Figure 17. Coal supply and demand forecast, 2015-2030
  Figure 18. Ore reserve exploration, 2014
  Figure 19. Ore demand forecast for fertilizer production, 2015-2030
  Figure 20. Natural Gas Consumption By Sectors
  2.2.6. Production Technology
  Table 2. NPK production technology
  2.2.7. Supply-Demand
  Figure 21. Supply - Demand, 2012 – Q1/2017e
  Figure 22. Production and consumption of domestic enterprises,

2012 – Q1/2017E

  Figure 23. Domestic Production, 2012 – Q1/2017e
  Table 3. Production capacity of large domestic enterprises, 9/2016
  Figure 24. Fertilizers demand and consumption, 2010 –2016e
  2.2.8. Import-Export
  Figure 25. Fertilizer Import, 2012 – Q1/2017e
  Figure 26. Fertilizer import by type, 2012 – Q1/2017e
  Figure 27. Fertilizers import, 2012 - Q1/2017e
  Figure 28. Fertilizers import structure by type, Q1/2017
  Figure 29. Structure of import volume by countries, Q1/2016 – Q1/2017
  Figure 30. Fertilizer export, 2012 - Q1/2017e
  Figure 31. Fertilizers export by country, Q1/2017e
  Figure 32. Fertilizers export by country, Q1/2016 - Q1/2017
  2.2.9. Inventories
  Figure 33. Inventories, 2010 – 2016e
  2.2.10. Price Movement
  Figure 34. Fertilizer Price movement, 2014 - Q1/2017
  2.2.11. Transportation and Distribution
  Figure 35. Major sea ports in Vietnam, 2015
2.3. Industry Risks
  Figure 36. Worldwide coal and oil price movement, 2011 – 2016
  Figure 37. Salt – marsh, Q2/2016
  Figure 38. Crop Structure, 2014
  Figure 39. Area of paddy fields over years 2010-2014
  Figure 40. Fertilizer demand by plant
  Figure 41. Agricultural export, 2015 - 2016
  Figure 42. Rice planting area by seasons, 2016
  Figure 43. Rice planting area by regions, 2012 - 2016
  Figure 44. Rice output by seasons, 2012 - 2016
2.4. Planning and Forecast
  2.4.1. Planning
  2.4.2. Global forecast
  Figure 45. Forecast world demand for fertilizer nutrients - world supply of nutrients, 2015 – 2019e
  2.4.3. Domestic forecast
  Figure 46. Supply – Demand Forecast, 2016f - 2020f

3. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS

3.1. Top 10 Enterprises
  Table 4. Top 10 enterprises with largest revenues in 2015 (Group of listed enterprises)
3.2. Business Performance Indicator Group
  Figure 47. Net revenues, 2015 – 2016
  Figure 48. Gross profit margin, 2015 - 2016
  Figure 49. Self-financing rate, 2015 - 2016
  Figure 50. Selling expenses, 2015 - 2016
  Figure 51. G&A expenses, 2015 - 2016
3.3. Financial Indicator Group
  Figure 52. Fixed asset ratio, 2015 - 2016
  Figure 53. Inventory turnover, 2015 - 2016
  Figure 54. Average collection period, 2015 - 2016
  Figure 55. Profit Ratio, 2015 - 2016
3.4. Payment Indicator Group
  Figure 56. Payment Indicators, 2015 - 2016


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