Vietnam Fertilizer Comprehensive Report Q3/2016
Fertilizer market continued to encounter oversupply in the period 2014-2015, nutrient supply by component is estimated to increase 4.03% while demand went up just 2.04%. The oversupply within the fertilizer industry and other exogenous factors affecting the global supply from 2014 until now are the lack of natural gas supply, the increase in volatility associated to trade measures and the sharp decline in oil prices.
Fertilizer prices decreased over years, mainly caused by the oversupply and the drop in prices of raw materials.
In Vietnam, players in the fertilizer industry are classified by business forms, namely Manufacturing Enterprises (produce mainly Urea, Phosphate, NPK and DAP), Import and Export Enterprises (import 100% of Kali and SA) and Trading Enterprises.
Average supply always exceeds 148% compared with demand. Domestic fertilizer production focused on single fertilizers. NPK and DAP are the only mixed fertilizers produced but the quality standard is still not satisfied yet, especially DAP. NPK accounts for over 40% of total production volume, followed by Urea, Phosphate and other mized fertilizers. Meanwhile, Potash and SA are nearly impossible to produce domestically, therefore 100% of which has to be imported.
Fertilizer consumption tends to drop over years due to the effects of agricultural products’ export price, the decrease in arable land and the negative impact of weather. Fertilizer import fluctuated continuously through years due to the impacts of domestic supply sources as well as the import tax policies of Vietnam and major import markets.
Export has continuously dropped since 2012, caused by the competition with Chinese fertilizers in Korea, Cambodia, etc. and the effect of El Nino on the countries in the region. Although following the global price trend, the increase and decrease rates of domestic price are always lower than those of the world. Presently, the technology in Vietnam is very various, ranging from old-fashioned to modern ones. In which, NPK is the easieast fertilizer to produce, therefore its production technology is the most various.
Fertilizer Industry is in saturation state, products of domestic companies have an intense competition with imported ones. Meanwhile, fertilizer demand tends to drop, leading to a downward pressure on prices in the period 2016 – 2020f.
Fertilizer prices decreased over years, mainly caused by the oversupply and the drop in prices of raw materials.
In Vietnam, players in the fertilizer industry are classified by business forms, namely Manufacturing Enterprises (produce mainly Urea, Phosphate, NPK and DAP), Import and Export Enterprises (import 100% of Kali and SA) and Trading Enterprises.
Average supply always exceeds 148% compared with demand. Domestic fertilizer production focused on single fertilizers. NPK and DAP are the only mixed fertilizers produced but the quality standard is still not satisfied yet, especially DAP. NPK accounts for over 40% of total production volume, followed by Urea, Phosphate and other mized fertilizers. Meanwhile, Potash and SA are nearly impossible to produce domestically, therefore 100% of which has to be imported.
Fertilizer consumption tends to drop over years due to the effects of agricultural products’ export price, the decrease in arable land and the negative impact of weather. Fertilizer import fluctuated continuously through years due to the impacts of domestic supply sources as well as the import tax policies of Vietnam and major import markets.
Export has continuously dropped since 2012, caused by the competition with Chinese fertilizers in Korea, Cambodia, etc. and the effect of El Nino on the countries in the region. Although following the global price trend, the increase and decrease rates of domestic price are always lower than those of the world. Presently, the technology in Vietnam is very various, ranging from old-fashioned to modern ones. In which, NPK is the easieast fertilizer to produce, therefore its production technology is the most various.
Fertilizer Industry is in saturation state, products of domestic companies have an intense competition with imported ones. Meanwhile, fertilizer demand tends to drop, leading to a downward pressure on prices in the period 2016 – 2020f.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1.Macroeconomics
Figure 1. CNY/VND Rate, 2014 – H1/2016
Figure 2. GDP & CPI, 2010 – 2015
Figure 3. Foreign Exchange Reserve
Figure 4. VND/USD Exchange Rate, 2010 – 2015
1.2.Legal Barriers
1.3.Trade Agreements
Figure 5. Vietnam Integration Process from 1995 until now
2. INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
2.1.Global Fertilizer Market
2.1.1. Supply – Demand
Figure 6. Fertilizer Demand by Nutrients and Nutrients Supply, 2012 – 2015e
2.1.2. Import – Export
Figure 7. Export
Figure 8. Import
Figure 9. Export structure by volume, 2014
Figure 10. Import structure by volume, 2014
2.1.3. Price Movement
Figure 11. Price movement of main fertilizers, 2010 – H1/2016
2.1.4. Fertilizer Production and Consumption in typical countries
2.2.Vietnam Fertilizer Situation
2.2.1. Vietnam Fertilizer Background
2.2.2. Definition and Classification
Figure 12. Based on the amount of necessary nutrient components
Figure 13. Based on origin
Figure 14. Structure of major fertilizers, 2014
Table 1. Definition and Classification of some main fertilizers.
2.2.3. Market Scale and Feature
Figure 15. Revenue growth rate by year, 2014 – 2015
Figure 16. Market share by revenue
Figure 17. Structure of Rice Area by Crop
Figure 18. Paddy Field Area
Figure 19. Rice Production By Crop
2.2.4. Major activities
2.2.5. Inputs
Figure 20. Coal reserve by area
Figure 21. Coal Consumption by industry
Figure 22. Coal supply and demand forecast, 2015-2030
Figure 23. Ore reserve exploration by type, 2014
Figure 24. Ore demand forecast for fertilizer production, 2015-2030
Figure 25. Natural Gas Consumption By Sectors
2.2.6. Production Technology
Table 2. NPK production technology
2.2.7. Supply – Demand
Figure 26. Supply - Demand, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 27. Production – Consumption, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 28. Domestic Production, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 29. Demand and Real consumption, 2010 – /2016e
Table 3. Production capacity of large domestic enterprises, H1/2016
Table 4. Capacity of some Vietnam’s fertilizer plants
2.2.8. Import – Export
Figure 30. Fertilizer import, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 31. Structure of import volume by countries, 2014 – 2015
Figure 32. Fertilizer Import, H1/2016
Figure 33. Import Structure by countries, H1/2016
Figure 34. Fertilizer export, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 35. Structure of export volume by country, 2014 – 2015
Figure 36. Fertilizer export by countries, H1/2015 - H1/2016
2.2.9. Inventories
Figure 37. Inventories, 2010 – 2015e
2.2.10. Price Movement
Figure 38. Fertilizer Price movement, 2014 – H1/2016VND
2.2.11. Transportation and Distribution
Figure 39. Major sea ports in Vietnam, 2015
2.3.Industry Risks
Figure 40. Salt – marsh, H1/2016
Figure 41. Oil, sulfur and coal price movement, 2011 - H1/2016
Figure 42. Crop Structure, 2014
Figure 43. Area of paddy fields over years
Figure 44. Fertilizer demand by plant
Figure 45. Agricultural export, 2014 – 2015
Table 5. 5 forces analysis
2.4.Planning and Forecast
2.4.1. Planning
Table 6. fertilizer production system plan
2.4.2. Global Forecast
Figure 46. Forecast world demand for fertilizer nutrients - world supply of nutrients, 2014 – 2018f
2.4.3. Domestic Forecast
Figure 47. Supply – Demand Forecast, 2016f - 2020f
3. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
3.1.Top 10 Enterprises
Table 7. Top 10 enterprises with largest revenues in 2014 (Group of listed enterprises)
3.2.Business Performance Indicator Group
Figure 48. Net revenues, 2014 – 2015
Figure 49. EBITDA, 2015
Figure 50. Financial Cost, 2014 – 2015
Figure 51. Sales Cost, 2014 – 2015
Figure 52. Enterprise Management Cost, 2014 – 2015
3.3.Financial Indicator Group
Figure 53. Total Assets, 2014 – 2015
Figure 54. Inventory turnover, 2015
Figure 55. Receivables turnover, 2015
Figure 56. Profitability indicators, 2015
3.4.Cash Flow Indicator Group
Table 8. Net Cash Flow from Operations of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises
Table 9. Net Cash Flow from Investments of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises
Table 10. Net Cash Flow from Financing of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises
4. APPENDIX OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1.Macroeconomics
Figure 1. CNY/VND Rate, 2014 – H1/2016
Figure 2. GDP & CPI, 2010 – 2015
Figure 3. Foreign Exchange Reserve
Figure 4. VND/USD Exchange Rate, 2010 – 2015
1.2.Legal Barriers
1.3.Trade Agreements
Figure 5. Vietnam Integration Process from 1995 until now
2. INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
2.1.Global Fertilizer Market
2.1.1. Supply – Demand
Figure 6. Fertilizer Demand by Nutrients and Nutrients Supply, 2012 – 2015e
2.1.2. Import – Export
Figure 7. Export
Figure 8. Import
Figure 9. Export structure by volume, 2014
Figure 10. Import structure by volume, 2014
2.1.3. Price Movement
Figure 11. Price movement of main fertilizers, 2010 – H1/2016
2.1.4. Fertilizer Production and Consumption in typical countries
2.2.Vietnam Fertilizer Situation
2.2.1. Vietnam Fertilizer Background
2.2.2. Definition and Classification
Figure 12. Based on the amount of necessary nutrient components
Figure 13. Based on origin
Figure 14. Structure of major fertilizers, 2014
Table 1. Definition and Classification of some main fertilizers.
2.2.3. Market Scale and Feature
Figure 15. Revenue growth rate by year, 2014 – 2015
Figure 16. Market share by revenue
Figure 17. Structure of Rice Area by Crop
Figure 18. Paddy Field Area
Figure 19. Rice Production By Crop
2.2.4. Major activities
2.2.5. Inputs
Figure 20. Coal reserve by area
Figure 21. Coal Consumption by industry
Figure 22. Coal supply and demand forecast, 2015-2030
Figure 23. Ore reserve exploration by type, 2014
Figure 24. Ore demand forecast for fertilizer production, 2015-2030
Figure 25. Natural Gas Consumption By Sectors
2.2.6. Production Technology
Table 2. NPK production technology
2.2.7. Supply – Demand
Figure 26. Supply - Demand, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 27. Production – Consumption, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 28. Domestic Production, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 29. Demand and Real consumption, 2010 – /2016e
Table 3. Production capacity of large domestic enterprises, H1/2016
Table 4. Capacity of some Vietnam’s fertilizer plants
2.2.8. Import – Export
Figure 30. Fertilizer import, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 31. Structure of import volume by countries, 2014 – 2015
Figure 32. Fertilizer Import, H1/2016
Figure 33. Import Structure by countries, H1/2016
Figure 34. Fertilizer export, 2010 – H1/2016e
Figure 35. Structure of export volume by country, 2014 – 2015
Figure 36. Fertilizer export by countries, H1/2015 - H1/2016
2.2.9. Inventories
Figure 37. Inventories, 2010 – 2015e
2.2.10. Price Movement
Figure 38. Fertilizer Price movement, 2014 – H1/2016VND
2.2.11. Transportation and Distribution
Figure 39. Major sea ports in Vietnam, 2015
2.3.Industry Risks
Figure 40. Salt – marsh, H1/2016
Figure 41. Oil, sulfur and coal price movement, 2011 - H1/2016
Figure 42. Crop Structure, 2014
Figure 43. Area of paddy fields over years
Figure 44. Fertilizer demand by plant
Figure 45. Agricultural export, 2014 – 2015
Table 5. 5 forces analysis
2.4.Planning and Forecast
2.4.1. Planning
Table 6. fertilizer production system plan
2.4.2. Global Forecast
Figure 46. Forecast world demand for fertilizer nutrients - world supply of nutrients, 2014 – 2018f
2.4.3. Domestic Forecast
Figure 47. Supply – Demand Forecast, 2016f - 2020f
3. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
3.1.Top 10 Enterprises
Table 7. Top 10 enterprises with largest revenues in 2014 (Group of listed enterprises)
3.2.Business Performance Indicator Group
Figure 48. Net revenues, 2014 – 2015
Figure 49. EBITDA, 2015
Figure 50. Financial Cost, 2014 – 2015
Figure 51. Sales Cost, 2014 – 2015
Figure 52. Enterprise Management Cost, 2014 – 2015
3.3.Financial Indicator Group
Figure 53. Total Assets, 2014 – 2015
Figure 54. Inventory turnover, 2015
Figure 55. Receivables turnover, 2015
Figure 56. Profitability indicators, 2015
3.4.Cash Flow Indicator Group
Table 8. Net Cash Flow from Operations of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises
Table 9. Net Cash Flow from Investments of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises
Table 10. Net Cash Flow from Financing of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises
4. APPENDIX OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
