Under Attack: Assessing New Threats to Pay TV 4Q 2014
This report examines several new threats and challenges that are facing the traditional pay-TV ecosystem throughout the world. The report outlines the current state of pay TV, the economic landscape for video services, and the leading threats to pay TV providers, including the rise of massive consolidated competitors, cable networks and content producers going direct-to-consumer, and new entrants disrupting the content space. The report assesses the future for pay-TV services and provides a forecast for pay-TV subscribers through 2018.
1 REPORT SUMMARY
1.1 Purpose of Report
1.2 Scope of Report
1.3 Research Approach/Sources
2 THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND OUTCOMES
3 THE STATE OF GLOBAL PAY TV
3.1 Growth of Pay TV
3.2 Trends in Pay TV
3.2.1 Consolidation
3.2.2 Diversification of Content Sources
3.2.3 Operator OTT Services
3.2.4 Continued Cord-cutting / Cord-shaving
3.2.5 Content Escaping the Expected Delivery Path
4 MARKET DISRUPTION: THE EMERGENCE OF GIANT COMPETITORS
4.1 Overview
4.2 Drivers and Inhibitors to the Emergence of Giant Competitors
4.3 The Market Impact of the Emergence of Giant Competitors
4.4 Potential Outcomes of the Emergence of Giant Competitors
4.5 Conditions Required for Pay-TV Disruption
5 MARKET DISRUPTION: CABLE NETWORKS AND OTHER CREATORS GO DIRECT-TO-CONSUMER
5.1 Overview and Evidence
5.2 Drivers and Inhibitors
5.3 Market Impact of Direct-to-Consumer
5.4 Potential Outcomes of Direct-to-Consumer Services
5.5 Conditions Necessary for Pay-TV Disruption
6 MARKET DISRUPTION: OUTSIDERS DISRUPT PAY TV VIA ACQUISITION OF CONTENT RIGHTS
6.1 Overview and Evidence
6.2 Drivers and Inhibitors for Outsider Disruption
6.3 Market Impact of Outsider Disruption via Content Acquisition
6.4 Potential Outcomes of Outsider Disruption via Content Acquisition
6.5 Conditions Necessary for Direct-to-Consumer Scenarios
7 IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
8 APPENDIX
8.1 Forecast Methodology
8.2 GLOSSARY
8.3 Company INDEX
1.1 Purpose of Report
1.2 Scope of Report
1.3 Research Approach/Sources
2 THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND OUTCOMES
3 THE STATE OF GLOBAL PAY TV
3.1 Growth of Pay TV
3.2 Trends in Pay TV
3.2.1 Consolidation
3.2.2 Diversification of Content Sources
3.2.3 Operator OTT Services
3.2.4 Continued Cord-cutting / Cord-shaving
3.2.5 Content Escaping the Expected Delivery Path
4 MARKET DISRUPTION: THE EMERGENCE OF GIANT COMPETITORS
4.1 Overview
4.2 Drivers and Inhibitors to the Emergence of Giant Competitors
4.3 The Market Impact of the Emergence of Giant Competitors
4.4 Potential Outcomes of the Emergence of Giant Competitors
4.5 Conditions Required for Pay-TV Disruption
5 MARKET DISRUPTION: CABLE NETWORKS AND OTHER CREATORS GO DIRECT-TO-CONSUMER
5.1 Overview and Evidence
5.2 Drivers and Inhibitors
5.3 Market Impact of Direct-to-Consumer
5.4 Potential Outcomes of Direct-to-Consumer Services
5.5 Conditions Necessary for Pay-TV Disruption
6 MARKET DISRUPTION: OUTSIDERS DISRUPT PAY TV VIA ACQUISITION OF CONTENT RIGHTS
6.1 Overview and Evidence
6.2 Drivers and Inhibitors for Outsider Disruption
6.3 Market Impact of Outsider Disruption via Content Acquisition
6.4 Potential Outcomes of Outsider Disruption via Content Acquisition
6.5 Conditions Necessary for Direct-to-Consumer Scenarios
7 IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
8 APPENDIX
8.1 Forecast Methodology
8.2 GLOSSARY
8.3 Company INDEX
LIST OF FIGURES
Mapping of Potential Outcomes
Global Forecast of Pay-TV Subscribers by Region (2013-2018)
Global Pay-TV Subscriber Share by Region, Mid-2014
Global Pay-TV Subscriber Share by Region, Mid-2014
Awareness of TV Everywhere by Country (2014)
Reasons for Canceling Pay-TV in the Next 12 Months
Likelihood of Cancelling Pay-TV in the Next 12 Months
Chromecast Users (2014)
The Impact of Market Polarization
Average ARPU by Size of Service Provider
Premium Service Subscriptions by Size of Service Provider – U.S.
Premium Service Subscriptions by Size of Service Provider – Germany
Drivers and Inhibitors for Large / Multinational Competition
The Market Impact of Large / Multinational Competition
The Impact of Direct-to-Consumer Offerings
Drivers and Inhibitors of Direct-to-Consumer Offerings
Revenue Comparison of User Paid and Advertising OTT Models
Market Impact of Direct-to-Consumer Offerings
Video Consumption by Platform (2010-2014)
The Impact of New Entrants on Content Licensing and Service Offerings
General Drivers and Inhibitors for New Entrants
Drivers and Inhibitors for Online Player Entrants
Drivers and Inhibitors for Current OTT Player Entrants
Drivers and Inhibitors for CE Maker Entrants
Drivers and Inhibitors for Retailer Entrants
The Market Impact of New Entrants on the Video Ecosystem
Video Consumption on TV Sets by Source (2010-2014)
Television Services Forecast Methodology
Mapping of Potential Outcomes
Global Forecast of Pay-TV Subscribers by Region (2013-2018)
Global Pay-TV Subscriber Share by Region, Mid-2014
Global Pay-TV Subscriber Share by Region, Mid-2014
Awareness of TV Everywhere by Country (2014)
Reasons for Canceling Pay-TV in the Next 12 Months
Likelihood of Cancelling Pay-TV in the Next 12 Months
Chromecast Users (2014)
The Impact of Market Polarization
Average ARPU by Size of Service Provider
Premium Service Subscriptions by Size of Service Provider – U.S.
Premium Service Subscriptions by Size of Service Provider – Germany
Drivers and Inhibitors for Large / Multinational Competition
The Market Impact of Large / Multinational Competition
The Impact of Direct-to-Consumer Offerings
Drivers and Inhibitors of Direct-to-Consumer Offerings
Revenue Comparison of User Paid and Advertising OTT Models
Market Impact of Direct-to-Consumer Offerings
Video Consumption by Platform (2010-2014)
The Impact of New Entrants on Content Licensing and Service Offerings
General Drivers and Inhibitors for New Entrants
Drivers and Inhibitors for Online Player Entrants
Drivers and Inhibitors for Current OTT Player Entrants
Drivers and Inhibitors for CE Maker Entrants
Drivers and Inhibitors for Retailer Entrants
The Market Impact of New Entrants on the Video Ecosystem
Video Consumption on TV Sets by Source (2010-2014)
Television Services Forecast Methodology
