Telecoms in 2020: consumer
By 2020, a plethora of different players will supply, deliver and manage the consumer digital world, which will be dominated by the Web, video and interactivity. The role of telcos will have altered dramatically and many will no longer be ‘telcos’ in the traditional sense of the word. They will be plugged into consumer services in different ways around the world depending on their competencies, assets, brand and individual market dynamics. They will have had to rapidly evolve their business models to address new and highly disruptive competitive threats. In some cases, this will mean stepping back from the most hotly contested digital arenas such as retail content and advertising, and focusing on core competencies.
Executive summary
In a nutshell
Scope
Ovum view
Key messages
Broadband is firmly established as the fourth utility
Video will dominate the next ten years
A crucial role in supporting quality of experience (QoX)
Broadband access will account for the majority of telco consumer revenues in 2020
More than ever, success for consumer telcos will depend on scale and efficiency
Recommendations for telcos
LEAN or SMART? Plan now for the mid to long term to create the right foundations for success
Regardless of which role is chosen, costs need to come down
Aggressively develop network intelligence capabilities and traffic/usage insights
Address complexity as a priority: a prime domain is the digital home
Consumer telecoms in 2020: broadband rules
No network: no digital world
A digital panacea
From QoS to QoX
Interaction is a killer feature
More for less will dominate business models
A select few will succeed in TV and content
Consumer telecoms: industry structure and player positioning
Fewer network owners
Less vertical integration, but more cross-platform
Virtual service providers are more powerful
Threats and opportunities for telcos
Threats
Opportunities
Telcos
The world of 2020
LEAN operators
Smart enablers
SMART players
From LEAN to SMART: by 2020 there will be a clearer delineation
Development timeline
2009–12
2013–16
2017–20
Telco customers and markets
Consumers in 2020
Digital citizens
Digital metics
Digital adventurers
Consumers want simplicity, but it will come in quite different forms
Consumers at home
Consumers on the move
Content: on-demand, and more of it
Development timeline
2009–12
2013–16
2017–20
Consumer services and revenues
The world of 2020
Where does the telco fit in?
Services
Interactivity rises up the agenda
Broadband connectivity is the means of multiple service delivery
Content
Practical services
Revenues
A shift from voice to broadband connectivity
Divergence between the LEANs and the SMARTs: the latter will chase content and advertising
Development timeline
2009–12
2013–16
2017–20
In a nutshell
Scope
Ovum view
Key messages
Broadband is firmly established as the fourth utility
Video will dominate the next ten years
A crucial role in supporting quality of experience (QoX)
Broadband access will account for the majority of telco consumer revenues in 2020
More than ever, success for consumer telcos will depend on scale and efficiency
Recommendations for telcos
LEAN or SMART? Plan now for the mid to long term to create the right foundations for success
Regardless of which role is chosen, costs need to come down
Aggressively develop network intelligence capabilities and traffic/usage insights
Address complexity as a priority: a prime domain is the digital home
Consumer telecoms in 2020: broadband rules
No network: no digital world
A digital panacea
From QoS to QoX
Interaction is a killer feature
More for less will dominate business models
A select few will succeed in TV and content
Consumer telecoms: industry structure and player positioning
Fewer network owners
Less vertical integration, but more cross-platform
Virtual service providers are more powerful
Threats and opportunities for telcos
Threats
Opportunities
Telcos
The world of 2020
LEAN operators
Smart enablers
SMART players
From LEAN to SMART: by 2020 there will be a clearer delineation
Development timeline
2009–12
2013–16
2017–20
Telco customers and markets
Consumers in 2020
Digital citizens
Digital metics
Digital adventurers
Consumers want simplicity, but it will come in quite different forms
Consumers at home
Consumers on the move
Content: on-demand, and more of it
Development timeline
2009–12
2013–16
2017–20
Consumer services and revenues
The world of 2020
Where does the telco fit in?
Services
Interactivity rises up the agenda
Broadband connectivity is the means of multiple service delivery
Content
Practical services
Revenues
A shift from voice to broadband connectivity
Divergence between the LEANs and the SMARTs: the latter will chase content and advertising
Development timeline
2009–12
2013–16
2017–20
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Key events and drivers summary
Table 2: 2020: three main categories of customers
Table 3: Telco consumer retail revenue splits in 2010 and 2020
Table 4: Key events and drivers summary
Table 1: Key events and drivers summary
Table 2: 2020: three main categories of customers
Table 3: Telco consumer retail revenue splits in 2010 and 2020
Table 4: Key events and drivers summary
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Evolution of consumer experience: 2010–20
Figure 2: Potential roles and customer touch-points for telcos in 2020
Figure 1: Evolution of consumer experience: 2010–20
Figure 2: Potential roles and customer touch-points for telcos in 2020
