Regional telecoms overview: Asia-Pacific
The telecoms markets in Asia-Pacific vary considerably in terms of competitive environment, stage of development, economic performance, regulation, and demographics. These differences present a number of challenges to operators, and therefore a wide array of strategies are evident as operators strive to meet the unique circumstances throughout the region. In 2009, macroeconomic factors had a significant impact on operator performance, making it a financially difficult year for telcos. In addition, the rapid decline in fixed voice services and the slowdown in both broadband and mobile growth also affected results. This report analyzes the market conditions in the Asia-Pacific region, and the trends, performance, and strategies of the key operators in the fixed voice, mobile, and broadband sectors.
Executive summary
In a nutshell
Key messages
Top-line revenue declines but cost cutting narrowly improves margins
Inevitable decline in fixed voice services accelerates
Mobile broadband shows potential but unimpressive overall growth
Fixed broadband and data growth stagnates
Overview and scope
Report focus
Decline of fixed-line services accelerates
Market competition
Fixed-access line losses accelerate
Revenue decline exceeds access decline
VoIP going mainstream
Double-digit revenue and connection declines unlikely
Broadband growth slows significantly
Market competition
Broadband markets saturating
Broadband revenue no longer providing much growth
Video services and the search for broadband revenue beyond access
Broadband growth not compensating for the decline in fixed voice
Fixed broadband access moving to fiber
Mobile markets saturate
Categorizing a diverse region
Market competition
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
International expansion
GSM family dominates technology
3G takes off
Limited mobile revenue growth in mature markets
ARPU decline continues at a significant pace
Minutes of use (MoU) per connection
Mobile data revenues show strong growth
Connection growth slowing
Incumbents’ mobile operations experiences slight growth decline
Prepaid users dominate, especially in growth markets
Financial performance of operators is mixed
Revenues shift from traditional to new services
Top-line revenue declines
Profitability is largely flat
Cash generators
Operating expenditure
Capital expenditure
Debt
Workforce
Appendix
Methodology
In a nutshell
Key messages
Top-line revenue declines but cost cutting narrowly improves margins
Inevitable decline in fixed voice services accelerates
Mobile broadband shows potential but unimpressive overall growth
Fixed broadband and data growth stagnates
Overview and scope
Report focus
Decline of fixed-line services accelerates
Market competition
Fixed-access line losses accelerate
Revenue decline exceeds access decline
VoIP going mainstream
Double-digit revenue and connection declines unlikely
Broadband growth slows significantly
Market competition
Broadband markets saturating
Broadband revenue no longer providing much growth
Video services and the search for broadband revenue beyond access
Broadband growth not compensating for the decline in fixed voice
Fixed broadband access moving to fiber
Mobile markets saturate
Categorizing a diverse region
Market competition
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
International expansion
GSM family dominates technology
3G takes off
Limited mobile revenue growth in mature markets
ARPU decline continues at a significant pace
Minutes of use (MoU) per connection
Mobile data revenues show strong growth
Connection growth slowing
Incumbents’ mobile operations experiences slight growth decline
Prepaid users dominate, especially in growth markets
Financial performance of operators is mixed
Revenues shift from traditional to new services
Top-line revenue declines
Profitability is largely flat
Cash generators
Operating expenditure
Capital expenditure
Debt
Workforce
Appendix
Methodology
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Emerging, developing, developed, and advanced market characteristics
Table 2: Major cross-market mobile operator shareholdings in Asia-Pacific: 2009
Table 1: Emerging, developing, developed, and advanced market characteristics
Table 2: Major cross-market mobile operator shareholdings in Asia-Pacific: 2009
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Incumbent fixed-access lines, domestic retail market share: 2007-09
Figure 2: Change in incumbents’ domestic retail fixed-access lines: 2007-09
Figure 3: Change in incumbents’ fixed voice revenues: 2007-09
Figure 4: Asia-Pacific fixed line connection and revenue CAGR forecasts: 2009-15
Figure 5: Incumbent domestic retail broadband market share: 2007-09 (excluding mobile broadband)
Figure 6: Growth in incumbent domestic retail broadband connections: 2007-09 (excluding mobile broadband)
Figure 7: Change in incumbents’ domestic broadband and data revenues: 2007-09
Figure 8: Asia-Pacific incumbent video connections: 2008-09
Figure 9: Change in domestic fixed revenues: 2007-09
Figure 10: Asia-Pacific broadband access technology: 2009 (excluding mobile broadband)
Figure 11: HHI comparison of local mobile market fragmentation in Asia-Pacific: 2009
Figure 12: Mobile connections by bearer technology in Asia-Pacific: 2009
Figure 13: Percentage of 3G connections in Asia-Pacific: 2009 and 2015 forecasts
Figure 14: Domestic mobile revenue growth in Asia-Pacific markets
Figure 15: Change in mobile ARPU for Asia-Pacific markets: 2008-09
Figure 16: Growth in MoU per connection per month: 2009
Figure 17: Mobile data revenues as a percentage of service revenues for Asia-Pacific markets: 2008-09
Figure 18: Mobile connection growth and market penetration in Asia-Pacific: 2007-09
Figure 19: Mobile connection growth for fixed Asia-Pacific incumbents: 2008-09
Figure 20: Percentage of mobile connections that are prepaid, by market: 2008-09
Figure 21: Revenue percentage by product and operator: 2006-09
Figure 22: Change in incumbents’ total revenues: 2006-09
Figure 23: Incumbent EBITDA margins: 2006-09
Figure 24: Incumbent EBIT margins: 2006-09
Figure 25: Incumbent cash efficiency: 2006-09
Figure 26: Incumbent opex growth versus revenue growth: 2009
Figure 27: Capex/revenue ratios: 2006-09
Figure 28: Debt/revenue ratios: 2007-09
Figure 29: Change in number of employees (full-time equivalents) at incumbent operators: 2007-09
Figure 1: Incumbent fixed-access lines, domestic retail market share: 2007-09
Figure 2: Change in incumbents’ domestic retail fixed-access lines: 2007-09
Figure 3: Change in incumbents’ fixed voice revenues: 2007-09
Figure 4: Asia-Pacific fixed line connection and revenue CAGR forecasts: 2009-15
Figure 5: Incumbent domestic retail broadband market share: 2007-09 (excluding mobile broadband)
Figure 6: Growth in incumbent domestic retail broadband connections: 2007-09 (excluding mobile broadband)
Figure 7: Change in incumbents’ domestic broadband and data revenues: 2007-09
Figure 8: Asia-Pacific incumbent video connections: 2008-09
Figure 9: Change in domestic fixed revenues: 2007-09
Figure 10: Asia-Pacific broadband access technology: 2009 (excluding mobile broadband)
Figure 11: HHI comparison of local mobile market fragmentation in Asia-Pacific: 2009
Figure 12: Mobile connections by bearer technology in Asia-Pacific: 2009
Figure 13: Percentage of 3G connections in Asia-Pacific: 2009 and 2015 forecasts
Figure 14: Domestic mobile revenue growth in Asia-Pacific markets
Figure 15: Change in mobile ARPU for Asia-Pacific markets: 2008-09
Figure 16: Growth in MoU per connection per month: 2009
Figure 17: Mobile data revenues as a percentage of service revenues for Asia-Pacific markets: 2008-09
Figure 18: Mobile connection growth and market penetration in Asia-Pacific: 2007-09
Figure 19: Mobile connection growth for fixed Asia-Pacific incumbents: 2008-09
Figure 20: Percentage of mobile connections that are prepaid, by market: 2008-09
Figure 21: Revenue percentage by product and operator: 2006-09
Figure 22: Change in incumbents’ total revenues: 2006-09
Figure 23: Incumbent EBITDA margins: 2006-09
Figure 24: Incumbent EBIT margins: 2006-09
Figure 25: Incumbent cash efficiency: 2006-09
Figure 26: Incumbent opex growth versus revenue growth: 2009
Figure 27: Capex/revenue ratios: 2006-09
Figure 28: Debt/revenue ratios: 2007-09
Figure 29: Change in number of employees (full-time equivalents) at incumbent operators: 2007-09
