Opportunity of mobile broadband outweighs threat to fixed vendors

Date: January 23, 2010
Pages: 11
US$ 895.00
Publisher: Ovum
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Opportunity of mobile broadband outweighs threat to fixed vendors
The growth of mobile broadband subscribers may be creating anxiety among vendors fearing that substitution of fixed broadband will reduce the market for access equipment. However, Ovum believes the impact of any substitution will be limited in the long run. In a selected few markets, mobile substitution will be one of several factors limiting growth of fixed broadband subscribers, which will reduce the addressable market for fixed broadband equipment. But in many others, the fixed broadband market is already mature and the growth of mobile broadband will expand the market for fixed backhaul equipment as mobile traffic increases. A few fixed access vendors are adapting existing FTTH type of products currently, but we expect over time that many more will venture into this new market with an expanded and targeted access product portfolio.
Executive summary
In a nutshell
Ovum view
Growth of mobile broadband subscribers and mobile traffic creating opportunity for FTTH vendors
Key messages
Mobile broadband will compete with lower fixed-speed tiers
Throughput can be trickier to predict and measure
Mobile broadband subscriber growth will outpace fixed broadband
But overwhelming majority of mobile broadband subscribers will be consumers on handsets
Complementary growth in many markets, substitution in selected few
Divide between emerging and developed markets
Dig beyond the country level to demographics
Determinants of fixed-mobile broadband access substitution
The evolution of devices will be a significant determinant in choice between wireline and mobile access
Wireless networks will need to match wireline networks in consumer experience
Rise of integrated operators
FONTocells anyone?
Challenges and questions remain about the complexity and diversity of opportunities
Initial wins indicate vendors taking note; some product tweaks under way
How significant is the mobile backhaul market for FTTx equipment likely to be?


Figure 1: The effect of mobile broadband on fixed broadband subscribers and access networks will be complex
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