LTE in the Middle East and Africa: Contracts, Operator Reviews, Spectrum Strategies, Subscriptions, Pricing and Forecasts 2011 - 2015 Q’3 2011 Update

Date: November 11, 2011
Pages: 75
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Publisher: Signals and Systems Telecom
Report type: Strategic Report
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LTE in the Middle East and Africa: Contracts, Operator Reviews, Spectrum Strategies, Subscriptions, Pricing and Forecasts 2011 - 2015 Q’3 2011 Update
With over 3.7 million global subscriptions in Q3’2011 spanning over 36 worldwide networks, LTE network deployments are rapidly gaining momentum. With four commercial network launches in Saudi Arabia (Zain Saudi, STC, Mobily) and the UAE (Etisalat) in September 2011, and over 26 LTE commitments, the Middle East has initiated a major push towards commercial LTE adoption globally, besides pioneering in the commercial release of TD-LTE user devices. By Q4 2011, it is expected that there will be over 6.6 million LTE subscriptions worldwide, with the Middle East region accounting for a 1.7 % market share with over 0.11 Million subscriptions. Subscriptions in the Africa region are also likely to follow suit, with early commercial launches in South Africa (Vodacom, MTN) expected before Q2’2012 taking African LTE subscriptions to 0.35 Million by Q4’2012. By 2015, it is estimated that the Middle East will account for 7.49 Million LTE subscriptions, while Africa will account for 11.15 Million subscriptions, representing global market shares of 1.8 % and 2.7 % respectively. While LTE is gaining a much quicker uptake than initial analyst predictions, there still exist a number of unanswered questions to the commercial success of LTE deployments in the Middle East and Africa such as the complexities in pricing plans, the lack of the sub-1GHz spectrum in the Middle East, regulatory issues, as well as interoperability between devices operating in different frequency bands. Covering over 16 regional markets and 30 major operators from the Middle East and Africa region, this report and its associated database provide answers these complex questions by providing a detailed assessment of the critical aspects the Middle Eastern and African LTE market, which include commercial LTE, trial and pilot deployments, operator commitments, LTE pricing strategies, regional operator reviews, regional regulatory and spectrum strategies, present LTE subscriptions, and forecasts by country and spectrum from Q4’2011 till Q4’2015. The report begins by providing a comprehensive assessment of LTE technology from both technical and market perspectives. Firstly presented is a technical assessment including performance metrics, integration with presently deployment 2G, 3G and 3.5 G networks, and the evolution to LTE Advanced, the next generation of LTE technology. The report then studies the key market drivers and barriers towards the adoption of LTE, from a global perspective with regionally operator observations. The report then presents an assessment of global LTE commercial network deployments and subscriptions for Q3’2011, followed by an assessment of global LTE market share, LTE pricing strategies and opportunities, as well as LTE spectrum strategies from a global perspective. The subsequent sections individually focus on the Middle East and Africa regions and provide comprehensive reviews on the regional LTE market outlook from 2011 to 2015, commercial deployments, operator reviews, LTE commitments, pricing opportunities and strategies for each operator, spectrum allocation opportunities and pricing strategies for each country, and a market share assessment for each region. Provided in the end are detailed forecasts for LTE subscriptions, market share and spectrum regulation from Q4’2011 to Q4’2015 on a global, regional and country wide basis. Presented alongside the forecasts is a summary of regulatory activities, and LTE trials, pilots and deployments within each country.
1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Executive Summary
1.2 Acronyms

2 LTE TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET OVERVIEW

2.1 LTE Technology Overview
  2.1.1 LTE Technical Performance Metrics
  2.1.2 The Evolution to 4G and LTE Advanced
  2.1.3 Integration with 2G, 3G & 3.5 G Deployments
2.2 LTE Market Overview
  2.2.1 The Key Market Drivers for LTE Adoption
    2.2.1.1 The Increasing Demand for Broadband Data Centric Applications
    2.2.1.2 Mobile Market Saturation and Opportunities for Higher ARPUs
    2.2.1.3 High Data Rates, Spectral Efficiency and OPEX Reduction
    2.2.1.4 Narrow Competition from competing standards
    2.2.1.5 Broadband Availability in Rural Areas
    2.2.1.6 Commitments by Major Infrastructure and User Device Vendors
  2.2.2 The Key Market Obstacles for LTE Adoption
    2.2.2.1 Frequency Spectrum Availability, Congestion and Regulation
    2.2.2.2 CAPEX Demands for Operators
    2.2.2.3 Consumer Device Challenges
    2.2.2.4 Pricing Strategies and Complexities in Roaming Agreements

3 WORLDWIDE LTE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

3.1 Worldwide LTE Subscription Projections 2011 - 2015
3.2 Q3’2011 Worldwide LTE Commercial Deployments and Subscriptions
3.3 Worldwide LTE Market Share
3.4 Worldwide LTE Pricing Opportunities & Strategies
    3.4.1.1 Discounts to 3G Tariffs
    3.4.1.2 Discounted Pricing in Rural Areas
    3.4.1.3 Speed and Usage Capped Pricing
    3.4.1.4 Free LTE Service Trials
    3.4.1.5 Device Agnostic Pricing
3.5 Worldwide LTE Spectrum Strategies
  3.5.1 700 MHz Band leading the Market in 2011
  3.5.2 Varying Spectrum Adoption Strategies

4 MIDDLE EAST LTE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

4.1 LTE Market Outlook and Regional Subscriptions (2011 – 2015)
4.2 Middle East Commercial Deployments and LTE Commitments
  4.2.1 The Saudi Market
    4.2.1.1 Double-Digit YoY Growth and 11 Million Mobile Broadband Connections
    4.2.1.2 STC (Saudi Telecom Company) Commercial LTE-2300 TDD Network Release
    4.2.1.3 Zain (SMTC) Commercial LTE-1800 FDD Network Release
    4.2.1.4 Mobiliy (Etihad Etisalat) Commercial LTE-2300 TDD Network Release
  4.2.2 The UAE Market
    4.2.2.1 Etisalat Commercial LTE-2600 FDD Network Release
    4.2.2.2 Du Pre-Commercial LTE-1800 FDD Network
    4.2.2.3 Abu Dhabi Police Trial
  4.2.3 The Rest of the Middle East
    4.2.3.1 Bahrain
      4.2.3.1.1 Zain Bahrain Planned LTE Network
    4.2.3.2 Israel
      4.2.3.2.1 Cellcom Israel Planned LTE Network
    4.2.3.3 Jordan
      4.2.3.3.1 Zain Jordan Planned LTE Network
    4.2.3.4 Kuwait
      4.2.3.4.1 Zain Kuwait LTE Trial Network
      4.2.3.4.2 Viva Kuwait LTE Trial Network
    4.2.3.5 Oman
      4.2.3.5.1 Omantel Trial and Planned TD-LTE Network
    4.2.3.6 Qatar
      4.2.3.6.1 Vodafone Qatar LTE Trial Network
      4.2.3.6.2 Qtel LTE Trial Network
4.3 Middle East LTE Pricing Opportunities and Strategies
  4.3.1 LTE Pricing Models in Saudi Arabia
    4.3.1.1 STC’s Quicknet LTE Pricing Strategies
    4.3.1.2 Zain SMTC LTE Pricing Strategies
    4.3.1.3 Mobily’s LTE Pricing Strategies
  4.3.2 LTE Pricing Models in the UAE
    4.3.2.1 Etisalat’s LTE Pricing Strategies
    4.3.2.2 Du’s LTE Pricing Strategies
  4.3.3 LTE Pricing Models in the Rest of the Middle East
    4.3.3.1 Qatar: Qtel and Vodafone LTE Pricing Strategies
    4.3.3.2 Bahrain: Zain Bahrain LTE Pricing Strategies
    4.3.3.3 Jordan: Zain Jordan LTE Pricing Strategies
    4.3.3.4 Oman: Omantel LTE Pricing Strategies
    4.3.3.5 Kuwait: Zain and Viva LTE Pricing Strategies
    4.3.3.6 Israel: Cellcom, Orange and Pelephone LTE Pricing Strategies
4.4 Middle East Spectrum Allocation & Strategies
  4.4.1 Congestion of sub–1 GHz Spectrum
  4.4.2 Increasing Demand for Spectrum Re-farming
  4.4.3 1800 MHz Spectrum to Lead Middle Eastern LTE Deployments by 2015
  4.4.4 UAE Spectrum Strategies
    4.4.4.1 2.6 GHz and 1800 MHz Spectrum Bands Leading the Market
    4.4.4.2 Increasing Demand for the 700 and 800 MHz Bands and Re-Farming Plans
  4.4.5 Saudi Arabia Spectrum Strategies
    4.4.5.1 2.3 GHz TDD and 1800 MHz FDD Spectrum Bands to Dominate the Market
    4.4.5.2 Lack of Sub-1 GHz Spectrum
    4.4.5.3 2.6 GHz Band Held by the Saudi Military
  4.4.6 Spectrum Strategies and Regulatory Developments in the rest of the Middle East
    4.4.6.1 Bahrain: A 2.6 GHz Market
    4.4.6.2 Jordan: Lack of Operator Interest in 2.6 GHz band Licenses
    4.4.6.3 Qatar: 800 MHz likely to be Regulated
    4.4.6.4 Oman: 2.3 GHz & 2.6 GHz Opportunities
    4.4.6.5 Kuwait: 1800 MHz & 2.6 GHz Opportunities
    4.4.6.6 Israel: 2.6 GHz Opportunity
4.5 Middle East LTE Market Share and Subscriptions by Country

5 AFRICA LTE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

5.1 Africa LTE Market Outlook and Regional Subscriptions (2011 – 2015)
5.2 Africa Commercial Deployments and LTE Commitments
  5.2.1 The Egyptian Market
    5.2.1.1 Etisalat Misr LTE Trial Network
    5.2.1.2 Vodafone Egypt LTE Trial Network
    5.2.1.3 Mobinil Egypt LTE Trial Network
  5.2.2 The South Africa Market
    5.2.2.1 Vodacom Pre-Commercial Release
    5.2.2.2 MTN South Africa LTE Trial Network
    5.2.2.3 Cell C LTE Trial Network
    5.2.2.4 Telkom South Africa Planned LTE Network
    5.2.2.5 Wireless Business Solutions-WBS Planned LTE Network
  5.2.3 The Nigerian Market
    5.2.3.1 Globacom Planned LTE Network
    5.2.3.2 Starcomms Planned LTE Network
  5.2.4 The Rest of Africa
    5.2.4.1 Kenya
      5.2.4.1.1 Safaricom Kenya LTE Trial Network
    5.2.4.2 Uganda
      5.2.4.2.1 Orange Uganda Planned LTE Trial
    5.2.4.3 Angola
      5.2.4.3.1 Unitel Angola LTE Trial Network
      5.2.4.3.2 Movicel Angola LTE Trial Network
    5.2.4.4 Tunisia
      5.2.4.4.1 Tunisiana Planned LTE Network
    5.2.4.5 Libya
      5.2.4.5.1 Al Madar Planned LTE Network Deployment
5.3 Africa LTE Pricing Opportunities & Strategies
  5.3.1 Egyptian Operator LTE Pricing Strategies
  5.3.2 South African Operator LTE Pricing Strategies
  5.3.3 Nigerian Operator LTE Pricing Strategies
  5.3.4 LTE Pricing Strategies in the Rest of Africa
5.4 Africa Spectrum Allocation & Strategies
  5.4.1 2.6 GHz FDD Spectrum to Lead the Market
  5.4.2 Egypt: 2.1 GHz Market
  5.4.3 South Africa: 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz Market
  5.4.4 Nigeria: 2.1 GHz and 2.6 GHz Opportunities
  5.4.5 Uganda: 2.3 GHz TDD Market
  5.4.6 Angola: 2.1 GHz Market with Potential Re-Farming
  5.4.7 Kenya: Potential 700 MHz and 2.6 GHz Market
  5.4.8 Libya & Tunisia: Unclear Spectrum Policies
5.5 Africa LTE Market Share and Subscriptions by Country

6 LTE SUBSCRIPTIONS, SPECTRUM AND MARKET SHARE FORECASTS BY REGION AND COUNTRY 2011 - 2015

6.1 Worldwide LTE Subscriptions and Market Share
  6.1.1 Worldwide LTE Subscriptions
    6.1.1.1 Worldwide LTE Subscriptions by Spectrum Band
    6.1.1.2 Worldwide LTE Subscriptions by Region
  6.1.2 Worldwide LTE Market Share by Spectrum
  6.1.3 Worldwide LTE Market Share by Top 10 Countries
6.2 Middle East LTE Subscriptions and Market Share
  6.2.1 Middle East LTE Subscriptions
    6.2.1.1 Middle East LTE Subscriptions by Spectrum Band
    6.2.1.2 Middle East LTE Subscriptions by Country
  6.2.2 Middle East LTE Market Share by Spectrum
  6.2.3 Middle East LTE Market Share by Top 10 Countries
  6.2.4 Middle East Country Level Subscriptions and Market Share
    6.2.4.1 Bahrain
      6.2.4.1.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.2.4.1.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.2.4.1.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.2.4.1.2.2 Zain Bahrain Planned LTE Network
    6.2.4.2 Israel
      6.2.4.2.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.2.4.2.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.2.4.2.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.2.4.2.2.2 Cellcom Planned LTE Network
    6.2.4.3 Jordan
      6.2.4.3.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.2.4.3.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.2.4.3.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.2.4.3.2.2 Zain Jordan Planned LTE Network
    6.2.4.4 Kuwait
      6.2.4.4.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.2.4.4.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.2.4.4.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.2.4.4.2.2 Zain Kuwait LTE Trial Network
        6.2.4.4.2.3 Viva Kuwait LTE Trial Network
    6.2.4.5 Oman
      6.2.4.5.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.2.4.5.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.2.4.5.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.2.4.5.2.2 Omantel Planned TDD LTE Network
    6.2.4.6 Qatar
      6.2.4.6.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.2.4.6.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.2.4.6.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.2.4.6.2.2 Vodafone Qatar LTE Trial Network
        6.2.4.6.2.3 Qtel Trial LTE Network and Planned Nationwide Deployment
    6.2.4.7 Saudi Arabia
      6.2.4.7.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.2.4.7.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.2.4.7.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.2.4.7.2.2 STC TDD-2300 LTE Commercial Network
        6.2.4.7.2.3 Etisalat Mobily TDD-2300 LTE Commercial Network
        6.2.4.7.2.4 Zain Saudi Arabia 1800 LTE Commercial Network
    6.2.4.8 UAE
      6.2.4.8.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.2.4.8.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.2.4.8.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.2.4.8.2.2 Etisalat 2600 Commercial LTE Network
        6.2.4.8.2.3 Du Trial Pre-Commercial LTE Network
        6.2.4.8.2.4 Abu Dhabi Police Trial LTE Network
6.3 Africa Subscriptions and Market Share
  6.3.1 Africa LTE Subscriptions
  6.3.2 Africa LTE Subscriptions by Spectrum Band
  6.3.3 Africa LTE Subscriptions by Country
  6.3.4 Africa LTE Market Share by Spectrum
  6.3.5 Africa LTE Market Share by Top 10 Countries
  6.3.6 Africa Country Level Subscriptions and Market Share
    6.3.6.1 Angola
      6.3.6.1.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
        6.3.6.1.1.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.3.6.1.1.2 Unitel Angola Trial LTE Network
        6.3.6.1.1.3 Movicel Angola Trial LTE Network
    6.3.6.2 Egypt
      6.3.6.2.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.3.6.2.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.3.6.2.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.3.6.2.2.2 Etisalat Misr Trial LTE Network
        6.3.6.2.2.3 Vodafone Egypt Trial LTE Network
        6.3.6.2.2.4 Mobinil Egypt Trial LTE Network
    6.3.6.3 Kenya
      6.3.6.3.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.3.6.3.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.3.6.3.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.3.6.3.2.2 Safaricom Kenya Trial LTE Network
    6.3.6.4 Libya
      6.3.6.4.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.3.6.4.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.3.6.4.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.3.6.4.2.2 Al Madar Planned LTE Network
    6.3.6.5 Nigeria
      6.3.6.5.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.3.6.5.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.3.6.5.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.3.6.5.2.2 Globacom Planned LTE Network
        6.3.6.5.2.3 Starcomms Planned LTE Network
    6.3.6.6 South Africa
      6.3.6.6.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.3.6.6.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.3.6.6.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.3.6.6.2.2 Vodacom Pre-Commercial LTE Network
        6.3.6.6.2.3 MTN South Africa Trial LTE Network
        6.3.6.6.2.4 Cell C Trial LTE Network
        6.3.6.6.2.5 Telkom South Africa Planned LTE Network
        6.3.6.6.2.6 Wireless Business Solutions-WBS Planned LTE Network
    6.3.6.7 Tunisia
      6.3.6.7.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.3.6.7.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.3.6.7.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.3.6.7.2.2 Tunisiana Planned LTE Network
    6.3.6.8 Uganda
      6.3.6.8.1 Subscriptions and Market Share
      6.3.6.8.2 Operator Deployments and Market Update
        6.3.6.8.2.1 Spectrum Availability and Regulatory Updates
        6.3.6.8.2.2 Orange Uganda Trial LTE Network
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