Global Mobile Market Outlook: 2010–15
Global mobile connections are forecast to hit 7.4 billion in 2015 and revenues are expected to reach $1,000 billion. This reflects a marked increase in our connections forecasts, but a decrease in our revenues outlook. The effects of emerging market growth and intense competition worldwide are behind this change. These trends will also require a marked change in the behavior of mobile operators looking to thrive in 2015. This report summarizes the trends that Ovum believes will shape the mobile industry over the next five years. It is intended to accompany our most recent mobile forecasts.
Executive summary
In a nutshell
Ovum view
Connections: global outlook revised upwards due to emerging markets
Revenues: global economic crisis had an impact
Services: data growth continues, but voice to remain mobile’s key service
Strategy: saturation and competition creates the world of SMART and LEAN players
Key messages
Connections
Global outlook revised upwards due to emerging markets
Emerging markets drive connections growth, but “emerging maturity” becoming more apparent
Asia-Pacific’s emerging role as connections growth continues
Africa becomes the next connections growth focus
Remaining regions show increasing signs of maturity
Developed markets continue to grow, albeit slowly
North America relies on data and prepaid in the US
Western European maturity makes mobile broadband the focus of connections growth
Developed Asia-Pacific sees more and more connectivity
Device market begins its recovery in 2010
Revenues
Global economic crisis has an impact
Developed markets show no let up in revenue pressure
Western European revenues fare worst in the downturn
North American revenues to remain strong
Developed Asia-Pacific operators able to stabilize revenues
Emerging markets face an increasingly tough financial future
The “big three” are still growing, but how low can ARPU go?
Remaining emerging markets show varying degrees of maturity
Services
Voice to remain mobile’s key service
Attempts made to differentiate through voice quality will struggle
Blocking mobile VoIP is pointless in the long term
Data revenues are everywhere, but will become increasingly difficult for operators to come by
Messaging loses its revenue generating impact
Mobile broadband marches on – and can be profitable
Value-added service revenues move away from mobile operators
Wholesale offers incremental revenue opportunities
The rise of the machines
Regulatory trends
Spectrum tops the regulatory agenda
Clamor for bandwidth focuses on refarming
3G comes to emerging markets
Next-generation technologies need new spectrum
Termination rates head south
Mobile can not avoid the net neutrality debate
Operator strategies
LTE strengthens its hold
LTE consigns mobile WiMAX to a niche technology
TD-LTE gains momentum
HSPA dominates to 2015
Technology is just a part of the issue
Saturation and competition creates the world of SMART and LEAN
Data puts the network into focus
Wi-Fi and femtocells gain support as a way to offload traffic
Macro-network and backhaul focuses on technology upgrades
Network sharing and outsourcing become increasingly common
M&A gets clever
Amalgamating assets to fight the integrated fight
Partnerships over purchases
Mobile is no longer a high-growth investment
Environmental issues influence strategies in a variety of ways
In a nutshell
Ovum view
Connections: global outlook revised upwards due to emerging markets
Revenues: global economic crisis had an impact
Services: data growth continues, but voice to remain mobile’s key service
Strategy: saturation and competition creates the world of SMART and LEAN players
Key messages
Connections
Global outlook revised upwards due to emerging markets
Emerging markets drive connections growth, but “emerging maturity” becoming more apparent
Asia-Pacific’s emerging role as connections growth continues
Africa becomes the next connections growth focus
Remaining regions show increasing signs of maturity
Developed markets continue to grow, albeit slowly
North America relies on data and prepaid in the US
Western European maturity makes mobile broadband the focus of connections growth
Developed Asia-Pacific sees more and more connectivity
Device market begins its recovery in 2010
Revenues
Global economic crisis has an impact
Developed markets show no let up in revenue pressure
Western European revenues fare worst in the downturn
North American revenues to remain strong
Developed Asia-Pacific operators able to stabilize revenues
Emerging markets face an increasingly tough financial future
The “big three” are still growing, but how low can ARPU go?
Remaining emerging markets show varying degrees of maturity
Services
Voice to remain mobile’s key service
Attempts made to differentiate through voice quality will struggle
Blocking mobile VoIP is pointless in the long term
Data revenues are everywhere, but will become increasingly difficult for operators to come by
Messaging loses its revenue generating impact
Mobile broadband marches on – and can be profitable
Value-added service revenues move away from mobile operators
Wholesale offers incremental revenue opportunities
The rise of the machines
Regulatory trends
Spectrum tops the regulatory agenda
Clamor for bandwidth focuses on refarming
3G comes to emerging markets
Next-generation technologies need new spectrum
Termination rates head south
Mobile can not avoid the net neutrality debate
Operator strategies
LTE strengthens its hold
LTE consigns mobile WiMAX to a niche technology
TD-LTE gains momentum
HSPA dominates to 2015
Technology is just a part of the issue
Saturation and competition creates the world of SMART and LEAN
Data puts the network into focus
Wi-Fi and femtocells gain support as a way to offload traffic
Macro-network and backhaul focuses on technology upgrades
Network sharing and outsourcing become increasingly common
M&A gets clever
Amalgamating assets to fight the integrated fight
Partnerships over purchases
Mobile is no longer a high-growth investment
Environmental issues influence strategies in a variety of ways
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Global mobile connections by region: 2008–15
Figure 2: Global mobile connections and fixed lines: 2008-15
Figure 3: Forecast year-on-year connections growth rates for China, India, and Indonesia: 2009-15
Figure 4: Connections CAGR in Asia-Pacific markets: 2009-15
Figure 5: Global smartphone and non-smartphone device shipments: 2008-15
Figure 6: Total mobile operator service revenues by region: 2008-15
Figure 7: Global and regional overall annual ARPU: 2008-15
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile operator service revenues: 2008-15
Figure 9: Annual overall ARPU for China, India, and Indonesia: 2008-15
Figure 10: Proportion of mobile operator revenues derived from voice: 2008-15
Figure 11: Mobile operator data revenues: 2008-15
Figure 12: Mobile application developer partners of choice
Figure 13: Global MVNO revenues: 2008-15
Figure 14: High-speed wireless packet data connections by technology: 2008-15
Figure 1: Global mobile connections by region: 2008–15
Figure 2: Global mobile connections and fixed lines: 2008-15
Figure 3: Forecast year-on-year connections growth rates for China, India, and Indonesia: 2009-15
Figure 4: Connections CAGR in Asia-Pacific markets: 2009-15
Figure 5: Global smartphone and non-smartphone device shipments: 2008-15
Figure 6: Total mobile operator service revenues by region: 2008-15
Figure 7: Global and regional overall annual ARPU: 2008-15
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile operator service revenues: 2008-15
Figure 9: Annual overall ARPU for China, India, and Indonesia: 2008-15
Figure 10: Proportion of mobile operator revenues derived from voice: 2008-15
Figure 11: Mobile operator data revenues: 2008-15
Figure 12: Mobile application developer partners of choice
Figure 13: Global MVNO revenues: 2008-15
Figure 14: High-speed wireless packet data connections by technology: 2008-15
