Global mobile market outlook: 2009–14

Date: February 22, 2010
Pages: 45
Price:
US$ 2,495.00
Publisher: Ovum
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: G3EDF7FE2ECEN
Leaflet:

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Global mobile market outlook: 2009–14
Global mobile connections are set to reach 6.49 billion in 2014, with revenues over $1,000 billion. However, over the coming five years, strategic challenges and intense competition awaits operators in both developed and emerging markets. Those operators able to grasp the initiative will be best placed to benefit from the enormous figures involved in the mobile industry. This report provides Ovum’s perspective on the market trends that will shape the mobile industry to 2014. It is intended as an accompaniment to the most recently published mobile forecasts (published 18 December 2009).
Executive summary
In a nutshell
Key messages
Ovum view
Connections: growth in emerging markets more than masks recessionary pressures
Revenues: recession slows the global market, but not for long
Services: mobile broadband growth to drive spectrum and LTE focus, but voice to remain the ‘killer app’
Strategy: LTE signals the transformation to an IP world
Connections
Recession makes minimal impact on global connections thanks to emerging markets
Developed market connections bear the brunt of the recession in 2009 despite data boom
A Western European market contracts for the first time
North American boom shows no sign of stopping
Developed Asia-Pacific markets march on
Emerging market connection growth powers the industry, but for how much longer?
Asia-Pacific remains the connections growth engine
South & Central America
Middle East and Africa
Device market to rebound in 2010
Smartphone shipments will reach 514.6 million by 2014
Symbian and Windows Mobile to struggle, while Android continues to rise
Revenues
Revenues impacted by macroeconomy and emerging market maturity
Currency fluctuations make comparisons difficult
Economic downturn reduces spending into the future
Emerging market connection growth masks ARPU erosion
‘Emerging maturity’ impacts revenue growth
Data saves mature markets, but emerging markets will get in on the act too
Regulatory trends
Spectrum to become increasingly important over the next five years
LTE brings new spectrum allocation and issues dealing with the old
Emerging markets go 3G
More competition, but who wins?
Mobile has a role in bridging the digital divide in emerging and developed markets
Net neutrality raises its head
The EU’s focus on mobile continues, but it is more like consolidation than fresh impetus
Services
Data explosion continues
Messaging is still the main data revenue generator
Mobile broadband rapidly gaining ground
Voice – don’t underestimate the ‘killer app’
HD voice is coming, but unlikely to shake up the market
Operator strategies
Mobile data traffic growth clogs the media, but there’s no need for it to clog networks
Operators need to focus on the network and tariff innovation
Infrastructure vendors need to build trust and not just networks
LTE is here, but growing pains await
There’s still a lot of life in HSPA
The window of opportunity closes on WiMAX
Disruptive trends: evolution to the world of SMART and LEAN
Fixed–mobile convergence: is there a future for mobile-only players?
Mobile has its advantages
But mobile also has its disadvantages
Still a long way to go for femtocells
M&A gets creative
Regional risk factors
Assessment of criteria impacting market forecasts

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Current LTE spectrum availability in Western Europe
Table 2: Global HSPA+ deployments and announcements

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Global mobile connections by region: 2007–14
Figure 2: Italian mobile connections: 2007–14
Figure 3: Global mobile phone and smartphone OS shipments
Figure 4: Global mobile operator service revenues: 2007–14
Figure 5: Overall ARPU in China, India and the Philippines: 2007–14
Figure 6: Global mobile operator data revenues: 2007–14
Figure 7: Global messaging and non-messaging revenues: 2008-14
Figure 8: Proportion of global mobile broadband users and revenues derived from small-screen services: 2008–14
Figure 9: Big-screen mobile broadband device shipments: 2008–14
Figure 10: Proportion of revenues derived from voice by region: 2014
Figure 11: Global outgoing minutes of use: 2007–14
Figure 12: Global high-speed mobile data connections by technology: 2007–14
Figure 13: Drivers of change from 2010 to 2020
Figure 14: Risk factors impacting connections growth in North America: 2009–14
Figure 15: Risk factors impacting connections growth in South & Central America: 2009–14
Figure 16: Risk factors impacting connections growth in Western Europe: 2009–14
Figure 17: Risk factors impacting connections growth in Eastern Europe: 2009–14
Figure 18: Risk factors impacting connections growth in Asia-Pacific: 2009–14
Figure 19: Risk factors impacting connections growth in the Middle East: 2009–14
Figure 20: Risk factors impacting connections growth in Africa: 2009–14
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