Forecast Update Spreadsheet: Optical Components (Charts and Figures)
Introduction
Optical components is on track to post over $5bn in revenues in 2010, the first time it has crossed this level on an annual basis since 2001. The market is on pace to grow over 30% compared to 2009. The "Forecast Update Spreadsheet: Optical Components (Charts and Figures)" datapack contains all of the input data for the key charts and figures for the companion forecast document.
Features and benefits
The market is on pace to grow over 30% compared to 2009. The growth is a snap-back from the 2009 contraction caused by the macroeconomic downturn. While the OC recovery is well on its way, ON has not recovered, leading to concerns that the OC recovery is driven by the need to refill inventory.We believe the misalignment between OC and ON is due to the bullwhip effect, which describes how demand variations in a food chain increase as one moves farther away from the end user. During the downturn, OC's contraction was deeper, and it is recovering much faster than ON.Our most likely scenario assumes that ON's recovery will start in 2011. We forecast the 2011 growth for OC to be 15% and our long-term outlook is for multiple sequential years of double-digit growth.
Your key questions answered
Optical components is on track to post over $5bn in revenues in 2010, the first time it has crossed this level on an annual basis since 2001. The market is on pace to grow over 30% compared to 2009. The "Forecast Update Spreadsheet: Optical Components (Charts and Figures)" datapack contains all of the input data for the key charts and figures for the companion forecast document.
Features and benefits
- The benefits of the forecast spreadsheet are: one repository for the key overall optical components, OC WAN, datacom, and FTTx forecasts.
- One repository for the technology trends that are changing the makeup of the optical component market: 100GHz to 50GHz ROADM, WSSs, PON transitions.
- Additional transitions include: 10Gbps, 40Gbps to 100Gbps; 4Gbps to 16Gbps Fibre Channel; to 40GbE and 100GbE; and to 10GPON.
The market is on pace to grow over 30% compared to 2009. The growth is a snap-back from the 2009 contraction caused by the macroeconomic downturn. While the OC recovery is well on its way, ON has not recovered, leading to concerns that the OC recovery is driven by the need to refill inventory.We believe the misalignment between OC and ON is due to the bullwhip effect, which describes how demand variations in a food chain increase as one moves farther away from the end user. During the downturn, OC's contraction was deeper, and it is recovering much faster than ON.Our most likely scenario assumes that ON's recovery will start in 2011. We forecast the 2011 growth for OC to be 15% and our long-term outlook is for multiple sequential years of double-digit growth.
Your key questions answered
- What is the optical components forecast, including optimistic and pessimistic scenarios?
- What are the key technology transitions that will occur over the forecast period?
- How does the market growth of optical components compare to that of optical networks and to carrier revenue and capex projections?
- What are the key growth subsegments within the optical components market?
- What are the key regional trends that will impact the components market?
