Autonomous Vehicles: Technology-centric cars at the core of the mobility revolution
With new players emerging and a flow of rapid advances in key autonomous driving technologies, the car and mobility markets are on the verge of major disruptions which will likely impact how people travel to a great extent.
Our report on autonomous cars presents the underlying technologies needed to attain the required level of autonomy.
It describes the different levels of autonomy and evaluates the potential of such vehicles.
It analyses the strategies of car manufacturers and Internet players – the latter are newcomers to the car market.
It reviews the main drivers for and barriers to autonomous car deployment on the market.
Finally, it presents sales forecasts for autonomous cars including Levels 3, 4 and 5 up to 2040.
Our report on autonomous cars presents the underlying technologies needed to attain the required level of autonomy.
It describes the different levels of autonomy and evaluates the potential of such vehicles.
It analyses the strategies of car manufacturers and Internet players – the latter are newcomers to the car market.
It reviews the main drivers for and barriers to autonomous car deployment on the market.
Finally, it presents sales forecasts for autonomous cars including Levels 3, 4 and 5 up to 2040.
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. UNDERLYING TECHNOLOGIES
2.1. Difference between connected and autonomous cars
2.1.1. Recalling the definitions
2.1.2 Autonomous cars need connectivity
2.2. Artificial intelligence
2.3. Surrounding detection technology
2.3.1. Lidar
2.3.2. Radar
2.3.3. Cameras and computer vision
2.3.4. Other sensors
2.3.5. Synthesis
2.4. Connectivity and communication
2.4.1. V2V
2.4.2. 5G and cellular V2X
2.4.3. DSRC/ITS-G5
2.4.4. ITS-G5 vs C-V2X
2.4.5. GNSS
2.4.6. HD Mapping
3. POTENTIAL AND ISSUES AROUND SELF-DRIVING CARS
3.1. Levels of autonomous driving
3.1.1 Definitions
3.1.2 Issues and challenges
3.2. Technologies and related challenges
3.3. Level of autonomous driving
3.4. Autonomous car potential
3.4.1. Safety
3.4.2. Increased convenience
3.4.3. Traffic and increased mobility for non-drivers
4. ECOSYSTEM
4.1. Connectivity in the car
4.2. Autonomous driving ecosystem
4.2.1. Overview of autonomous car strategies
4.2.2 Autonomous driving ecosystem strategies
4.2.3. Overview of autonomous driving market maturity
4.2.4 Mapping of main players in the autonomous driving ecosystem
4.2.5. Overview of autonomous car players
4.2.6. Overview of autonomous car proposals and roadmap
4.3. Major car manufacturers
4.3.1 General Motors
4.3.2 Ford
4.3.3 BMW
4.3.4 Volkswagen Group
4.3.5 Tesla
4.3.6 Toyota
4.3.7 PSA
4.3.8 Renault
4.3.9 NIO
4.4. Internet players
4.4.1. Google
4.4.2. Apple
4.4.3. Uber
4.4.4. Baidu
4.5. Equipment vendors
4.5.1. Which role for equipment vendors?
4.5.2. Key acquisitions
5. INTERNATIONAL ADOPTION
5.1. International comparison of trust in self-driving cars
5.2. Main concerns over safety coming from developed countries
5.3. North America leads way in terms of experiments, so far
6. AUTONOMOUS CAR DEPLOYMENTS
6.1. Key aspects of drivers and barriers
6.2. Market estimates by 2040
6.2.1. Level 5 car will not be a reality before 2030
6.2.2. The bulk of the demand will come from Asia-Pac region
2. UNDERLYING TECHNOLOGIES
2.1. Difference between connected and autonomous cars
2.1.1. Recalling the definitions
2.1.2 Autonomous cars need connectivity
2.2. Artificial intelligence
2.3. Surrounding detection technology
2.3.1. Lidar
2.3.2. Radar
2.3.3. Cameras and computer vision
2.3.4. Other sensors
2.3.5. Synthesis
2.4. Connectivity and communication
2.4.1. V2V
2.4.2. 5G and cellular V2X
2.4.3. DSRC/ITS-G5
2.4.4. ITS-G5 vs C-V2X
2.4.5. GNSS
2.4.6. HD Mapping
3. POTENTIAL AND ISSUES AROUND SELF-DRIVING CARS
3.1. Levels of autonomous driving
3.1.1 Definitions
3.1.2 Issues and challenges
3.2. Technologies and related challenges
3.3. Level of autonomous driving
3.4. Autonomous car potential
3.4.1. Safety
3.4.2. Increased convenience
3.4.3. Traffic and increased mobility for non-drivers
4. ECOSYSTEM
4.1. Connectivity in the car
4.2. Autonomous driving ecosystem
4.2.1. Overview of autonomous car strategies
4.2.2 Autonomous driving ecosystem strategies
4.2.3. Overview of autonomous driving market maturity
4.2.4 Mapping of main players in the autonomous driving ecosystem
4.2.5. Overview of autonomous car players
4.2.6. Overview of autonomous car proposals and roadmap
4.3. Major car manufacturers
4.3.1 General Motors
4.3.2 Ford
4.3.3 BMW
4.3.4 Volkswagen Group
4.3.5 Tesla
4.3.6 Toyota
4.3.7 PSA
4.3.8 Renault
4.3.9 NIO
4.4. Internet players
4.4.1. Google
4.4.2. Apple
4.4.3. Uber
4.4.4. Baidu
4.5. Equipment vendors
4.5.1. Which role for equipment vendors?
4.5.2. Key acquisitions
5. INTERNATIONAL ADOPTION
5.1. International comparison of trust in self-driving cars
5.2. Main concerns over safety coming from developed countries
5.3. North America leads way in terms of experiments, so far
6. AUTONOMOUS CAR DEPLOYMENTS
6.1. Key aspects of drivers and barriers
6.2. Market estimates by 2040
6.2.1. Level 5 car will not be a reality before 2030
6.2.2. The bulk of the demand will come from Asia-Pac region
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Underlying technologies
Multiple sensors work together for autonomous driving
Lidar using a spinning mirror
Lidar imaging example
Benefits and drawbacks of radar for self-driving vehicles
Radar’s applications in ADAS
Differences between short-range and long-range radars
Applications of cameras in autonomous vehicles
Ultrasonic sensors in autonomous driving
VCSEL players in the automotive space
Comparison of main sensors used for self-driving cars
Main scenarios where V2V can prevent accidents
GM 2017 Cadillac CTS saloons, the first GM car to come equipped with V2V
Available operation modes in LTE-Sidelink Communications
Direct communications (with vehicles, infrastructure, people)
Communications through the network
Repartition of C-V2X application tested in trials (base= 27): Collision avoidance, the most tested use case
Worldwide C-V2X trials as of end 2018
5G scope and automotive applications
DSRC/ITS-G5 deployments where Autotal is involved
What each supporter is saying of the technology competitor
Likely regulatory environment for V2X technologies
Complementarity between GNSS (absolute positioning) and other sensors (relative positioning)
What is an HD map? A SD map with additional layers
Potential and issues around self-driving cars
Autonomous driving levels
Difficult situations for self-driving
Traffic-light detection
What can you see in this picture?
Autonomous driving is also a question of responsibilities
Major causes for traffic accidents
Causes of stress and anxiety in the car
Park Assist (BMW)
Reduced distance between cars thanks to highway platooning result in reduced consumption and improved traffic conditions
Ecosystem
Testing a self-driving Chevy Bolt electric vehicle
GM Maven car-sharing service
Autonomous Ford Fusion Hybrid vehicle
Trial of self-driving car with Domino’s Pizza in August 2017
Sensor system of BMW autonomous driving
VW Sedric concept car for Level 5 autonomous driving
Sensor components enabling Audi A8 Level 3 autonomous driving
Example of OTA updates and new features brought to existing models
Level 3 self-driving features available to Tesla models with hardware 2 and more
Enhanced autopilot systems for autonomous driving
Number of (crowdsourced) miles driven by Tesla Autopilot
Toyota two-side development approach to self driving
Mobility as a Service as a way to speed up full self-driving technologies
Toyota e-Pallete concept announced at CES 2018
Ecosystem
PSA Level 3 capable vehicles involved in L3Pilot project
Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance roadmap for autonomous driving
Comparison of SUV models (as published in NIO Annual Report)
The Waymo ‘Firefly’ (retired in August 2017)
Waymo lidar sensors for sale to non-competing companies
Waymo One service deployed in areas of Phoenix, Arizona
A Lexus RX450h used by Apple in its testing of self-driving vehicles
Uber-Volvo self-driving car in development
Baidu-Chery autonomous driving prototype car (based on Apollo)
Apollo roadmap
Apollo hardware platform
International adoption
Consumer acceptance score, by country
Percentage of consumers who think fully self-driving vehicles will not be safe (2017 vs 2018)
Number of cities with trials and initiatives around autonomous cars
Autonomous car deployments
World car sales, by their level of autonomy, million units
Total sales by 2040, by region and by autonomy level
Underlying technologies
Multiple sensors work together for autonomous driving
Lidar using a spinning mirror
Lidar imaging example
Benefits and drawbacks of radar for self-driving vehicles
Radar’s applications in ADAS
Differences between short-range and long-range radars
Applications of cameras in autonomous vehicles
Ultrasonic sensors in autonomous driving
VCSEL players in the automotive space
Comparison of main sensors used for self-driving cars
Main scenarios where V2V can prevent accidents
GM 2017 Cadillac CTS saloons, the first GM car to come equipped with V2V
Available operation modes in LTE-Sidelink Communications
Direct communications (with vehicles, infrastructure, people)
Communications through the network
Repartition of C-V2X application tested in trials (base= 27): Collision avoidance, the most tested use case
Worldwide C-V2X trials as of end 2018
5G scope and automotive applications
DSRC/ITS-G5 deployments where Autotal is involved
What each supporter is saying of the technology competitor
Likely regulatory environment for V2X technologies
Complementarity between GNSS (absolute positioning) and other sensors (relative positioning)
What is an HD map? A SD map with additional layers
Potential and issues around self-driving cars
Autonomous driving levels
Difficult situations for self-driving
Traffic-light detection
What can you see in this picture?
Autonomous driving is also a question of responsibilities
Major causes for traffic accidents
Causes of stress and anxiety in the car
Park Assist (BMW)
Reduced distance between cars thanks to highway platooning result in reduced consumption and improved traffic conditions
Ecosystem
Testing a self-driving Chevy Bolt electric vehicle
GM Maven car-sharing service
Autonomous Ford Fusion Hybrid vehicle
Trial of self-driving car with Domino’s Pizza in August 2017
Sensor system of BMW autonomous driving
VW Sedric concept car for Level 5 autonomous driving
Sensor components enabling Audi A8 Level 3 autonomous driving
Example of OTA updates and new features brought to existing models
Level 3 self-driving features available to Tesla models with hardware 2 and more
Enhanced autopilot systems for autonomous driving
Number of (crowdsourced) miles driven by Tesla Autopilot
Toyota two-side development approach to self driving
Mobility as a Service as a way to speed up full self-driving technologies
Toyota e-Pallete concept announced at CES 2018
Ecosystem
PSA Level 3 capable vehicles involved in L3Pilot project
Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance roadmap for autonomous driving
Comparison of SUV models (as published in NIO Annual Report)
The Waymo ‘Firefly’ (retired in August 2017)
Waymo lidar sensors for sale to non-competing companies
Waymo One service deployed in areas of Phoenix, Arizona
A Lexus RX450h used by Apple in its testing of self-driving vehicles
Uber-Volvo self-driving car in development
Baidu-Chery autonomous driving prototype car (based on Apollo)
Apollo roadmap
Apollo hardware platform
International adoption
Consumer acceptance score, by country
Percentage of consumers who think fully self-driving vehicles will not be safe (2017 vs 2018)
Number of cities with trials and initiatives around autonomous cars
Autonomous car deployments
World car sales, by their level of autonomy, million units
Total sales by 2040, by region and by autonomy level
