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Autonomous Vehicles: Technology-centric cars at the core of the mobility revolution

July 2019 | 84 pages | ID: A3AFBF0CA0CEN
IDATE Consulting & Research

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With new players emerging and a flow of rapid advances in key autonomous driving technologies, the car and mobility markets are on the verge of major disruptions which will likely impact how people travel to a great extent.

Our report on autonomous cars presents the underlying technologies needed to attain the required level of autonomy.

It describes the different levels of autonomy and evaluates the potential of such vehicles.

It analyses the strategies of car manufacturers and Internet players – the latter are newcomers to the car market.

It reviews the main drivers for and barriers to autonomous car deployment on the market.

Finally, it presents sales forecasts for autonomous cars including Levels 3, 4 and 5 up to 2040.
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. UNDERLYING TECHNOLOGIES

2.1. Difference between connected and autonomous cars
  2.1.1. Recalling the definitions
  2.1.2 Autonomous cars need connectivity
2.2. Artificial intelligence
2.3. Surrounding detection technology
  2.3.1. Lidar
  2.3.2. Radar
  2.3.3. Cameras and computer vision
  2.3.4. Other sensors
  2.3.5. Synthesis
2.4. Connectivity and communication
  2.4.1. V2V
  2.4.2. 5G and cellular V2X
  2.4.3. DSRC/ITS-G5
  2.4.4. ITS-G5 vs C-V2X
  2.4.5. GNSS
  2.4.6. HD Mapping

3. POTENTIAL AND ISSUES AROUND SELF-DRIVING CARS

3.1. Levels of autonomous driving
  3.1.1 Definitions
  3.1.2 Issues and challenges
3.2. Technologies and related challenges
3.3. Level of autonomous driving
3.4. Autonomous car potential
  3.4.1. Safety
  3.4.2. Increased convenience
  3.4.3. Traffic and increased mobility for non-drivers

4. ECOSYSTEM

4.1. Connectivity in the car
4.2. Autonomous driving ecosystem
  4.2.1. Overview of autonomous car strategies
  4.2.2 Autonomous driving ecosystem strategies
  4.2.3. Overview of autonomous driving market maturity
  4.2.4 Mapping of main players in the autonomous driving ecosystem
  4.2.5. Overview of autonomous car players
  4.2.6. Overview of autonomous car proposals and roadmap
4.3. Major car manufacturers
  4.3.1 General Motors
  4.3.2 Ford
  4.3.3 BMW
  4.3.4 Volkswagen Group
  4.3.5 Tesla
  4.3.6 Toyota
  4.3.7 PSA
  4.3.8 Renault
  4.3.9 NIO
4.4. Internet players
  4.4.1. Google
  4.4.2. Apple
  4.4.3. Uber
  4.4.4. Baidu
4.5. Equipment vendors
  4.5.1. Which role for equipment vendors?
  4.5.2. Key acquisitions

5. INTERNATIONAL ADOPTION

5.1. International comparison of trust in self-driving cars
5.2. Main concerns over safety coming from developed countries
5.3. North America leads way in terms of experiments, so far

6. AUTONOMOUS CAR DEPLOYMENTS

6.1. Key aspects of drivers and barriers
6.2. Market estimates by 2040
  6.2.1. Level 5 car will not be a reality before 2030
  6.2.2. The bulk of the demand will come from Asia-Pac region

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Underlying technologies
  Multiple sensors work together for autonomous driving
  Lidar using a spinning mirror
  Lidar imaging example
  Benefits and drawbacks of radar for self-driving vehicles
  Radar’s applications in ADAS
  Differences between short-range and long-range radars
  Applications of cameras in autonomous vehicles
  Ultrasonic sensors in autonomous driving
  VCSEL players in the automotive space
  Comparison of main sensors used for self-driving cars
  Main scenarios where V2V can prevent accidents
  GM 2017 Cadillac CTS saloons, the first GM car to come equipped with V2V
  Available operation modes in LTE-Sidelink Communications
  Direct communications (with vehicles, infrastructure, people)
  Communications through the network
  Repartition of C-V2X application tested in trials (base= 27): Collision avoidance, the most tested use case
  Worldwide C-V2X trials as of end 2018
  5G scope and automotive applications
  DSRC/ITS-G5 deployments where Autotal is involved
  What each supporter is saying of the technology competitor
  Likely regulatory environment for V2X technologies
  Complementarity between GNSS (absolute positioning) and other sensors (relative positioning)
  What is an HD map? A SD map with additional layers
Potential and issues around self-driving cars
  Autonomous driving levels
  Difficult situations for self-driving
  Traffic-light detection
  What can you see in this picture?
  Autonomous driving is also a question of responsibilities
  Major causes for traffic accidents
  Causes of stress and anxiety in the car
  Park Assist (BMW)
  Reduced distance between cars thanks to highway platooning result in reduced consumption and improved traffic conditions
Ecosystem
  Testing a self-driving Chevy Bolt electric vehicle
  GM Maven car-sharing service
  Autonomous Ford Fusion Hybrid vehicle
  Trial of self-driving car with Domino’s Pizza in August 2017
  Sensor system of BMW autonomous driving
  VW Sedric concept car for Level 5 autonomous driving
  Sensor components enabling Audi A8 Level 3 autonomous driving
  Example of OTA updates and new features brought to existing models
  Level 3 self-driving features available to Tesla models with hardware 2 and more
  Enhanced autopilot systems for autonomous driving
  Number of (crowdsourced) miles driven by Tesla Autopilot
  Toyota two-side development approach to self driving
  Mobility as a Service as a way to speed up full self-driving technologies
  Toyota e-Pallete concept announced at CES 2018
Ecosystem
  PSA Level 3 capable vehicles involved in L3Pilot project
  Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance roadmap for autonomous driving
  Comparison of SUV models (as published in NIO Annual Report)
  The Waymo ‘Firefly’ (retired in August 2017)
  Waymo lidar sensors for sale to non-competing companies
  Waymo One service deployed in areas of Phoenix, Arizona
  A Lexus RX450h used by Apple in its testing of self-driving vehicles
  Uber-Volvo self-driving car in development
  Baidu-Chery autonomous driving prototype car (based on Apollo)
  Apollo roadmap
  Apollo hardware platform
International adoption
  Consumer acceptance score, by country
  Percentage of consumers who think fully self-driving vehicles will not be safe (2017 vs 2018)
  Number of cities with trials and initiatives around autonomous cars
Autonomous car deployments
  World car sales, by their level of autonomy, million units
  Total sales by 2040, by region and by autonomy level


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