CIGS Photovoltaics Markets - 2014
Summary
The CIGS industry has promised more than it has delivered. To date, CIGS has failed to be the printable high-efficiency, low-cost and flexible solar panel technology that was once hoped for by its advocates. In addition, it is impossible not to notice that the Solyndra scandal in the U.S. has at its center a CIGS firm. Yet despite all this, the CIGS industry has begun to ship panels in significant quantities.
This report is NanoMarkets’ latest report analyzing the CIGS industry and its prospects for the future. NanoMarkets has been covering the CIGS space since CIGS’ earliest days and this report should be regarded as a major guide to the future of CIGS, compiled with an insider’s knowledge. It examines the future of this important solar panel technology from both the standpoint of the technical and the commercial. And it does so with a background in which it seems likely that many of the subsidies that have helped solar in the past will fade away and that the world economy will not return to the strong growth of the last decade for quite some time.
Among the important technical aspects of CIGS that this report covers are the likely evolution of CIGS fabrication and encapsulation and how these factors factor into market expansion and cost reduction for CIGS. Much of the report is also devoted to the role that CIGS will play in the building-integrated PV (BIPV market) and how flexibility and price parity with silicon solar panels could considerably improve the revenues generated by CIGS technology in the near future.
As with most NanoMarkets reports, this report includes an eight-year forecast in volume and value terms of CIGS markets broken out by applications and product type. It also includes a discussion of the leading firms active in this space and their product/market strategies.
The CIGS industry has promised more than it has delivered. To date, CIGS has failed to be the printable high-efficiency, low-cost and flexible solar panel technology that was once hoped for by its advocates. In addition, it is impossible not to notice that the Solyndra scandal in the U.S. has at its center a CIGS firm. Yet despite all this, the CIGS industry has begun to ship panels in significant quantities.
This report is NanoMarkets’ latest report analyzing the CIGS industry and its prospects for the future. NanoMarkets has been covering the CIGS space since CIGS’ earliest days and this report should be regarded as a major guide to the future of CIGS, compiled with an insider’s knowledge. It examines the future of this important solar panel technology from both the standpoint of the technical and the commercial. And it does so with a background in which it seems likely that many of the subsidies that have helped solar in the past will fade away and that the world economy will not return to the strong growth of the last decade for quite some time.
Among the important technical aspects of CIGS that this report covers are the likely evolution of CIGS fabrication and encapsulation and how these factors factor into market expansion and cost reduction for CIGS. Much of the report is also devoted to the role that CIGS will play in the building-integrated PV (BIPV market) and how flexibility and price parity with silicon solar panels could considerably improve the revenues generated by CIGS technology in the near future.
As with most NanoMarkets reports, this report includes an eight-year forecast in volume and value terms of CIGS markets broken out by applications and product type. It also includes a discussion of the leading firms active in this space and their product/market strategies.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
E.1 Opportunities for CIGS Panel Makers
E.1.1 Conventional Panel Opportunities
E.1.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGS
E.1.3 Mobile and Portable Opportunities for CIGS
E.2 Opportunities for Firms Supplying Materials to the CIGS industry
E.3 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost
E.4 Firms to Watch
E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PV
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 CIGS in a World of Reduced Subsidies and Economic Uncertainty
1.1.2 What Does Low Cost Natural Gas Mean for CIGS Markets?
1.1.3 Is CIGS Ready for High-Volume Manufacturing?
1.1.4 Will Flexible CIGS Be an Advantage vs. Other PV Technologies?
1.1.5 CIGS and BIPV: A Match Made for Rooftops?
1.1.6 CIGS' Achilles Heel: Lifetimes and Encapsulation
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
CHAPTER TWO: THE SUPPLY SIDE OF CIGS PV
2.1 Solyndra: Poor Execution or Uncompetitive Technology?
2.2 What will Price Parity with Crystalline Silicon PV do to CIGS?
2.3 Will CIGS be Able to Surpass CdTe in Cost/Watt?
2.4 CIGS Materials: The Indium Issue
2.5 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost
2.5.1 Conventional Vacuum Deposition
2.5.2 Printing: What's the Holdup?
2.5.3 Electrodeposition: A Middle-of-the-Road Alternative
2.5.4 Roll-to-Roll: Is it Really an Advantage?
2.6 Other Components of CIGS PV
2.6.1 Electrodes: Changing Materials
2.6.2 Transparent Electrode Materials
2.6.3 Other Electrode and Reflector Materials
2.6.4 CIGS' Special Encapsulation Needs
2.7 The Future: New Architectures and Next Generation CIGS PV
2.8 Key Suppliers of Materials Unique to CIGS PV
2.8.1 Sputtering Materials
2.8.2 Indium Corporation
2.8.3 Umicore
2.8.4 American Elements
2.8.5 Nanoco
2.9 Key Points Made in this Chapter
CHAPTER THREE: CIGS MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
3.1 How do Changes in Subsidies Change the CIGS Landscape?
3.2 How Does Plentiful Natural Gas Change the CIGS Landscape?
3.3 High Performance. The CIGS Advantage in PV Applications
3.3.1 Conventional Module Market Opportunities
3.3.2 Rigid BIPV Market Opportunities
3.3.3 CIGS BIPV Semi-Transparent Glass
3.4 Flexible CIGS: The Key to a High-Growth Market?
3.4.1 Flexible BIPV Opportunities
3.4.2 Other Flexible Application Opportunities
3.4.3 Is Durability Still an Issue?
3.5 The Crowded CIGS Market and Longer-Term Trends
3.5.1 Industry shakeout soon?
3.5.2 CIGS Prospects in China
3.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter
CHAPTER FOUR: EIGHT-YEAR FORECASTS FOR CIGS PV AND ITS MATERIALS
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Data Sources
4.1.2 Changes from Previous Reports
4.1.3 Scope of Forecast
4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios
4.2 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Product Type
4.2.1 Conventional Panels
4.2.2 BIPV
4.2.3 Other Products
4.3 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Manufacturing Technology
4.3.1 Forecasts by Rigid vs. Flexible Manufacturing
4.3.2 Forecasts by CIGS Deposition Method
4.4 Summary of Forecasts
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED IN THIS REPORT
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Exhibit E-1: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-1: Printed CIGS Firms
Exhibit 2-2: Electrodeposited CIGS Firms
Exhibit 3-1: CIGS PV Competitors in 2011
Exhibit 3-2: CIGS PV Manufacturers by Geography: 2011 vs. 2009
Exhibit 4-1: Conventional CIGS PV Panels ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-2: CIGS BIPV Products by BIPV Type ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-3: Forecasts of CIGS "Other" Products
Exhibit 4-4: CIGS PV Revenues by Type of Manufacturing ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-5: CIGS PV Revenues by CIGS Deposition Process ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-6: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions)
E.1 Opportunities for CIGS Panel Makers
E.1.1 Conventional Panel Opportunities
E.1.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGS
E.1.3 Mobile and Portable Opportunities for CIGS
E.2 Opportunities for Firms Supplying Materials to the CIGS industry
E.3 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost
E.4 Firms to Watch
E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PV
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 CIGS in a World of Reduced Subsidies and Economic Uncertainty
1.1.2 What Does Low Cost Natural Gas Mean for CIGS Markets?
1.1.3 Is CIGS Ready for High-Volume Manufacturing?
1.1.4 Will Flexible CIGS Be an Advantage vs. Other PV Technologies?
1.1.5 CIGS and BIPV: A Match Made for Rooftops?
1.1.6 CIGS' Achilles Heel: Lifetimes and Encapsulation
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
CHAPTER TWO: THE SUPPLY SIDE OF CIGS PV
2.1 Solyndra: Poor Execution or Uncompetitive Technology?
2.2 What will Price Parity with Crystalline Silicon PV do to CIGS?
2.3 Will CIGS be Able to Surpass CdTe in Cost/Watt?
2.4 CIGS Materials: The Indium Issue
2.5 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost
2.5.1 Conventional Vacuum Deposition
2.5.2 Printing: What's the Holdup?
2.5.3 Electrodeposition: A Middle-of-the-Road Alternative
2.5.4 Roll-to-Roll: Is it Really an Advantage?
2.6 Other Components of CIGS PV
2.6.1 Electrodes: Changing Materials
2.6.2 Transparent Electrode Materials
2.6.3 Other Electrode and Reflector Materials
2.6.4 CIGS' Special Encapsulation Needs
2.7 The Future: New Architectures and Next Generation CIGS PV
2.8 Key Suppliers of Materials Unique to CIGS PV
2.8.1 Sputtering Materials
2.8.2 Indium Corporation
2.8.3 Umicore
2.8.4 American Elements
2.8.5 Nanoco
2.9 Key Points Made in this Chapter
CHAPTER THREE: CIGS MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
3.1 How do Changes in Subsidies Change the CIGS Landscape?
3.2 How Does Plentiful Natural Gas Change the CIGS Landscape?
3.3 High Performance. The CIGS Advantage in PV Applications
3.3.1 Conventional Module Market Opportunities
3.3.2 Rigid BIPV Market Opportunities
3.3.3 CIGS BIPV Semi-Transparent Glass
3.4 Flexible CIGS: The Key to a High-Growth Market?
3.4.1 Flexible BIPV Opportunities
3.4.2 Other Flexible Application Opportunities
3.4.3 Is Durability Still an Issue?
3.5 The Crowded CIGS Market and Longer-Term Trends
3.5.1 Industry shakeout soon?
3.5.2 CIGS Prospects in China
3.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter
CHAPTER FOUR: EIGHT-YEAR FORECASTS FOR CIGS PV AND ITS MATERIALS
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Data Sources
4.1.2 Changes from Previous Reports
4.1.3 Scope of Forecast
4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios
4.2 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Product Type
4.2.1 Conventional Panels
4.2.2 BIPV
4.2.3 Other Products
4.3 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Manufacturing Technology
4.3.1 Forecasts by Rigid vs. Flexible Manufacturing
4.3.2 Forecasts by CIGS Deposition Method
4.4 Summary of Forecasts
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED IN THIS REPORT
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Exhibit E-1: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-1: Printed CIGS Firms
Exhibit 2-2: Electrodeposited CIGS Firms
Exhibit 3-1: CIGS PV Competitors in 2011
Exhibit 3-2: CIGS PV Manufacturers by Geography: 2011 vs. 2009
Exhibit 4-1: Conventional CIGS PV Panels ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-2: CIGS BIPV Products by BIPV Type ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-3: Forecasts of CIGS "Other" Products
Exhibit 4-4: CIGS PV Revenues by Type of Manufacturing ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-5: CIGS PV Revenues by CIGS Deposition Process ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-6: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions)
