The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration

May 2010 | 209 pages | ID: U911159B984EN
Packaged Facts

Abstracts

ProdUnit Price (Global Site License) €5 000

On the heels of more than two years of recession, the restaurant industry continues to feel the results of discretionary spending pullbacks, and while it has worked margin miracles, must nevertheless work its way out of a triple threat: declining guest traffic, declining average check, and declines sales. Going forward, restaurant operators across all segments will need a walk the fine line by balancing incentives and discounts with added value and brand enhancement, working toward weaning consumers from the downward spiral of price shopping.

The The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trend Momentum and Migration provides unique insights into consumers’ evolving relationship with restaurants, helping restaurant operators position their brands—and menus—accordingly. Highlights of the study include 1) directional consumer behavioral and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts’ proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook Tracker, which identifies the consumers who will lead near-term restaurant growth; 2) Via its Consumer Restaurant Usage and Spend Tracker, unique analysis of meal usage by restaurant type, party size, and party spend, to help target consumers who can bring in higher guest check averages; 3) Share of Stomach sales analysis that trends restaurant sales by segment against its retail counterpart, and provides quarterly same-store comparable trends and guest traffic frequency trends for more than 50 restaurant brands by segment—all of which provide a thorough sense of where the industry is heading; and 4) current and future menu pricing strategies and detailed consumer brand affiliations, to provide competitive insight.

Woven throughout the report, readers will also find granular consumer insight provided via “consumer drilldowns” that shed insight on a host of pertinent guest traffic and incenting themes. Themes addressed include the degree to which healthy and new menu items influence choosing a restaurant versus choosing a menu item; the benefits of positioning gift cards & loyalty programs to healthy eaters and online order placers; targeting party spend by budget and health attitudes; and psychographic analyses of male and female Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters.

While the report forecasts industry sales in detail through 2012, simply put, the restaurant industry will face sales challenges through the reporting period. In an environment where growth—even stasis—means taking share, knowing where menu pricing trends, sales trends, menu selection trends, and convenience trends are going is paramount. This report provides needed consultation on these themes, helping industry participants what position restaurant menus and services for tomorrow’s consumer.

Data Methodology

Our methodology rests on a balance of data-centric expertise and holistic understanding, maximizing accuracy and depth of analysis. Report data is derived from thorough analysis of a host of sources, including the following:

• Proprietary company interviews
• Proprietary consumer surveys
• The Experian Simmons National Consumer Study
• The U.S. Census Bureau
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture
• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics Retail Trade Survey
• Company presentations
• Trade associations and trade magazines
• Academic journals
• Industry conferences
• Restaurant menus

Coverage areas

In addition to supporting analysis (such as an introduction, an executive summary, and terms & definitions), this report covers the following major topics. Please note that the final published version of this report may contain addition information. Charts/graphs, as well as major header topics, are included.

Contents

CHAPTER 1: RESTAURANT MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Consumers’ heavy burden will not lift soon

Consumer Confidence

Unemployment

Personal Savings Rate

Figure: Unemployment, Savings Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010

Current Situation vs. Expectations

Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Home Meal Use Continues to Gain Ground

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Topline View

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Topline View

Unemployment trends adversely affect everyday consumer; QSR and family segments to suffer

Figure: Unemployment Rate, by Education Level, 2007-2010

Figure: Unemployment Rate, by Age, 2007-2010

Regional Weakness

Unemployment Forecast: A Little Less Bleak in 2011; Just a Little Less Bleak in 2012

Figure: Unemployment Rate Forecast, 2010-2012

Stock and housing declines take toll on household wealth: rebound to 2006 levels a long way off

Figure: Household Wealth: 2004-2009

Figure: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case Shiller Index

Food at home gains pricing edge

Figure: Consumer Price Index: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2009

Figure: Consumer Price Index: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, July 2008 - December 2009

Slight uptick in food inflation expected for 2010

Figure: Producer Price Index: Selected Commodities, 2007-2009

Figure: Consumer Price Index: Selected Processed Foods and Feeds, 2007-2009

CHAPTER 2: CONSUMER RESTAURANT OUTLOOK TRACKER

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Consumers’ burden will not lift soon: 25-34s with $50K+ HH show promise

Consumer Confidence

Current Situation vs. Expectations

Figure: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 2007-2010

Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Significant Shift to Home Food Spend Continues

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior

Near Future Portends More of the Same

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior

Hope resides in positive perceptions about future job security and treating self/others

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood 3 Restaurant spend to be led by 25-34s?

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age

Figure: Restaurant Visits, by Age: 2008-09

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age

A split along income lines suggests increasing divergence in use by HH income

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by HH Income

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by HH Income

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by HH Income

Age & Income Consumer Drill-Downs Reinforce Importance of $50K+ 25-34s to present and future

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age and Income

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age and Income

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age and Income

CHAPTER 3: CONSUMER RESTAURANT USAGE AND SPEND TRACKER

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Triple threat: declining guest counts, guest checks, and sales Figure: Average Check, Guest Traffic, and Sales Trends: 2002-09

Figure: Annual Meals Purchased at Restaurants, Per Person: 2000-095 Fast food remains traffic king: 4 in 10 restaurant visits in past month were to fast food/QSR

Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type

Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010

The Restaurant Generation: 18-34 year-olds still moving through restaurant doors

Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by Age

Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by Age

Discretionary income translates to more frequent use; fast food an egalitarian exception

Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by HH Income Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by HH Income Minorities above average users across most restaurant types Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity

Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity Total Spend Award goes to 25-34s

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis, February-March 2010, by Age

Average mean cost increases with HH income; party size highest among middle-income users

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis, February-March 2010, by HH Income

If they love eating healthy, they’ll love spending money

Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis: Food and Health AttitudesIntroduction

CHAPTER 4: SHARE OF STOMACH: SALES ANALYSIS

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Figure: Restaurant Performance Index, 2007-2010

Figure: Food Away From Home versus Food at Home, 2000-2009

Figure: Food Away From Home, by Segment, 2000-2009

Figure: Eating and Drinking Places: LSR, FSR, and Snack/Beverage, 2007-2011

Figure: Limited-Service and Full-Service Restaurants, by Segment, 2007-2011

Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, LSR Burger, 2008-09

Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Fast Casual, 2008-09

Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, QSR “Other,” 2008-09

Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Family, 2008-09

Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Bar & Grill, 2008-09

Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual International, 2008-09

Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Other, 2008-09

Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Upscale, 2008-09

Guest traffic analysis

Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Snack & Beverage, 2007-09

Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Burger, 2007-09

Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Chicken, 2007-09

Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Pizza, 2007-09

Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Buffet/Cafeterias, 2007-09

Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Family Restaurants, 2007-09

Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Casual Bar/Grill, 2007-09

Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Casual International, 2007-09

CHAPTER 5: LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Starbuck’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

McDonald’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Burger King: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Wendy’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Arby’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Domino’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Chipotle: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Carroll’s Restaurant Group: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Panera Bread: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Cracker Barrel: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Denny’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

IHOP: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

P.F. Chang’s China Bistro: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

The Cheesecake Factory: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Red Lobster: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

Ruth’s Chris: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

McCormick & Schmick’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

CHAPTER 6: DAY PART & ORDERING BEHAVIOR TREND ANALYSIS

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Dinner daypart accounts for half of all usage; breakfast less than 10%

Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010

With age comes wisdom—and breakfast restaurant use

Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Age

When it comes to HH income, all dayparts are created equal

Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by HH Income

For Black and Asian restaurant goers, sweet snacks and just a beverage more popular

Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity

Dinner ordering behavior: two menu items per person is the norm

25-34s most likely to order appetizers, alcoholic beverages; 65+ diners most likely to order dessert

Figure: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by Age

Alcoholic beverage use 60% more likely among $75K+ diners

Figure: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by HH Income

Daypart trends

Convenience stores

Fast food/QSR

Family restaurants

Snacking

Dessert

Daypart pricing trends

CHAPTER 7: RESTAURANT & MENU SELECTION ANALYSIS: OVERVIEW

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Convenience and familiarity more apt to influence decision than discounts

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors, February-March 2010

Among restaurant attributes, environmentally friendly practices least apt to influence

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010

Direct experience with restaurant more likely to influence than recommendations

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, February-March 2010

A range of discounts and incentives share influence among consumers

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010

Healthy and new menu items not a significant restaurant draw

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Preferences, February-March 2010

On the menu, combo plates and mix-and-match options spur selections

Figure: Menu Item Selection Factors, February-March 2010

CHAPTER 8: CONSUMER FOOD & HEALTH ATTITUDE ANALYSIS: OVERVIEW

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by Age

Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by HH Income

CHAPTER 9: RESTAURANT & MENU SELECTION ANALYSIS: DISCOUNTING AND INCENTIVES, FOOD ATTRIBUTES, AND MENU ATTRIBUTES

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Influence of discounts and incentives on consumers

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010

Degree of influence correlates with youth

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by Age

Specials & combos spur bottom end; gift cards & loyalty programs spur middle and high end

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by HH Income

Take note of different needs by race & ethnicity

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity

Yes, food matters

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010

To 18-34s: Here’s to your health! Something new? Something small?

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010, by Age

With heavier pocketbooks comes wider interest in cuisine, healthful items & smaller portions

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010, by HH Income

Higher interest in rewards programs among healthy eaters and online order placers

Figure: Food and Health Attitudes, by Discounts & Incentive Preference, February-March 2010

Menu item strategies that incent selection

Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010

Fickle youth, strongly persuaded by all but smaller portions

Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010, by Age

HH income: LTOs & lower prices draw lower end; waiter recs & new items the higher end

Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010, by HH Income

Menu item selection influence among men & women by healthy eating characteristics

Health Attitudes, Gender Column, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010

Menu item selection influence among men & women by budgeting

characteristics

Budget Attitudes, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010

Gift cards and loyalty rewards programs to pick up steam

Menu pricing strategy a top priority

Promotions, promotions, promotions: getting granular

A healthful America: whether we like it or not

Menu regulation

Figure: Prevalence of Adult Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity, 1988-2006

Figure: Prevalence of Overweight Among Children and Adolescents, 1988-2006

CHAPTER 10: RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: RESTAURANT ATTRIBUTES, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND OTHER PREFERENCES

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Practical but memorable, with a twist

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010

Environmental pulse quickens with youth

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010, by Age

Special services, ambience, and quick service influenced by HH income

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010, by HH Income

Take me to . . . where I’ve already been!

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010

Age: Reputation and past experience versus recommendations, reviews and something new

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010, by Age

Higher HH income; higher use of online reviews

Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010, by HH Income

Convenience comes in many flavors

Reimaging the rule, not the exception

Dual branding trend widens

CHAPTER 11: FAST FOOD VERSUS CASUAL RESTAURANT USERS: FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

Fast Food, Family, and Casual Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, by Age, February-March 2010

Fast Food, Family, and Casual Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, by HH Income, February-March 2010

Fast Food Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, Gender Column, February-March 2010

CHAPTER 12: PSYCHOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS: BUDGETERS, HEALTH SEEKERS, AND BIG EATERS

Introduction

Insight Capsule

Fast Facts

Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Age, February-March 2010

Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by HH Income, February-March 2010

Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Discount & Incentive Preference, February-March 2010

Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010