The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration

Date: May 22, 2010
Pages: 209
Price:
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Publisher: Packaged Facts
Report type: Strategic Report
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ID: U911159B984EN
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The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration
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On the heels of more than two years of recession, the restaurant industry continues to feel the results of discretionary spending pullbacks, and while it has worked margin miracles, must nevertheless work its way out of a triple threat: declining guest traffic, declining average check, and declines sales. Going forward, restaurant operators across all segments will need a walk the fine line by balancing incentives and discounts with added value and brand enhancement, working toward weaning consumers from the downward spiral of price shopping.

The The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trend Momentum and Migration provides unique insights into consumers’ evolving relationship with restaurants, helping restaurant operators position their brands—and menus—accordingly. Highlights of the study include 1) directional consumer behavioral and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts’ proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook Tracker, which identifies the consumers who will lead near-term restaurant growth; 2) Via its Consumer Restaurant Usage and Spend Tracker, unique analysis of meal usage by restaurant type, party size, and party spend, to help target consumers who can bring in higher guest check averages; 3) Share of Stomach sales analysis that trends restaurant sales by segment against its retail counterpart, and provides quarterly same-store comparable trends and guest traffic frequency trends for more than 50 restaurant brands by segment—all of which provide a thorough sense of where the industry is heading; and 4) current and future menu pricing strategies and detailed consumer brand affiliations, to provide competitive insight.

Woven throughout the report, readers will also find granular consumer insight provided via “consumer drilldowns” that shed insight on a host of pertinent guest traffic and incenting themes. Themes addressed include the degree to which healthy and new menu items influence choosing a restaurant versus choosing a menu item; the benefits of positioning gift cards & loyalty programs to healthy eaters and online order placers; targeting party spend by budget and health attitudes; and psychographic analyses of male and female Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters.

While the report forecasts industry sales in detail through 2012, simply put, the restaurant industry will face sales challenges through the reporting period. In an environment where growth—even stasis—means taking share, knowing where menu pricing trends, sales trends, menu selection trends, and convenience trends are going is paramount. This report provides needed consultation on these themes, helping industry participants what position restaurant menus and services for tomorrow’s consumer.

Data Methodology

Our methodology rests on a balance of data-centric expertise and holistic understanding, maximizing accuracy and depth of analysis. Report data is derived from thorough analysis of a host of sources, including the following:
  • Proprietary company interviews
  • Proprietary consumer surveys
  • The Experian Simmons National Consumer Study
  • The U.S. Census Bureau
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture
  • The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics Retail Trade Survey
  • Company presentations
  • Trade associations and trade magazines
  • Academic journals
  • Industry conferences
  • Restaurant menus
Coverage areas

In addition to supporting analysis (such as an introduction, an executive summary, and terms & definitions), this report covers the following major topics. Please note that the final published version of this report may contain addition information. Charts/graphs, as well as major header topics, are included.
CHAPTER 1: RESTAURANT MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Consumers’ heavy burden will not lift soon
Consumer Confidence
Unemployment
Personal Savings Rate
Figure: Unemployment, Savings Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010
Current Situation vs. Expectations
Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Home Meal Use Continues to Gain Ground
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Topline View
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Topline View
Unemployment trends adversely affect everyday consumer; QSR and family segments to suffer
Figure: Unemployment Rate, by Education Level, 2007-2010
Figure: Unemployment Rate, by Age, 2007-2010
Regional Weakness
Unemployment Forecast: A Little Less Bleak in 2011; Just a Little Less Bleak in 2012
Figure: Unemployment Rate Forecast, 2010-2012
Stock and housing declines take toll on household wealth: rebound to 2006 levels a long way off
Figure: Household Wealth: 2004-2009
Figure: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case Shiller Index
Food at home gains pricing edge
Figure: Consumer Price Index: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2009
Figure: Consumer Price Index: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, July 2008 - December 2009
Slight uptick in food inflation expected for 2010
Figure: Producer Price Index: Selected Commodities, 2007-2009
Figure: Consumer Price Index: Selected Processed Foods and Feeds, 2007-2009

CHAPTER 2: CONSUMER RESTAURANT OUTLOOK TRACKER

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Consumers’ burden will not lift soon: 25-34s with $50K+ HH show promise
Consumer Confidence
Current Situation vs. Expectations
Figure: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 2007-2010
Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Significant Shift to Home Food Spend Continues
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior
Near Future Portends More of the Same
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior
Hope resides in positive perceptions about future job security and treating self/others
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood 3 Restaurant spend to be led by 25-34s?
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age
Figure: Restaurant Visits, by Age: 2008-09
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age
A split along income lines suggests increasing divergence in use by HH income
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by HH Income
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by HH Income
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by HH Income
Age & Income Consumer Drill-Downs Reinforce Importance of $50K+ 25-34s to present and future
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age and Income
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age and Income
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age and Income

CHAPTER 3: CONSUMER RESTAURANT USAGE AND SPEND TRACKER

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Triple threat: declining guest counts, guest checks, and sales Figure: Average Check, Guest Traffic, and Sales Trends: 2002-09
Figure: Annual Meals Purchased at Restaurants, Per Person: 2000-095 Fast food remains traffic king: 4 in 10 restaurant visits in past month were to fast food/QSR
Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type
Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010
The Restaurant Generation: 18-34 year-olds still moving through restaurant doors
Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by Age
Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by Age
Discretionary income translates to more frequent use; fast food an egalitarian exception
Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by HH Income Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by HH Income Minorities above average users across most restaurant types Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity
Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity Total Spend Award goes to 25-34s
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis, February-March 2010, by Age
Average mean cost increases with HH income; party size highest among middle-income users
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis, February-March 2010, by HH Income
If they love eating healthy, they’ll love spending money
Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis: Food and Health AttitudesIntroduction

CHAPTER 4: SHARE OF STOMACH: SALES ANALYSIS

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Figure: Restaurant Performance Index, 2007-2010
Figure: Food Away From Home versus Food at Home, 2000-2009
Figure: Food Away From Home, by Segment, 2000-2009
Figure: Eating and Drinking Places: LSR, FSR, and Snack/Beverage, 2007-2011
Figure: Limited-Service and Full-Service Restaurants, by Segment, 2007-2011
Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, LSR Burger, 2008-09
Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Fast Casual, 2008-09
Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, QSR “Other,” 2008-09
Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Family, 2008-09
Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Bar & Grill, 2008-09
Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual International, 2008-09
Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Other, 2008-09
Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Upscale, 2008-09
Guest traffic analysis
Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Snack & Beverage, 2007-09
Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Burger, 2007-09
Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Chicken, 2007-09
Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Pizza, 2007-09
Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Buffet/Cafeterias, 2007-09
Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Family Restaurants, 2007-09
Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Casual Bar/Grill, 2007-09
Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Casual International, 2007-09

CHAPTER 5: LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Starbuck’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
McDonald’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Burger King: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Wendy’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Arby’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Domino’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Chipotle: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Carroll’s Restaurant Group: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Panera Bread: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Cracker Barrel: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Denny’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
IHOP: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
P.F. Chang’s China Bistro: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
The Cheesecake Factory: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Red Lobster: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
Ruth’s Chris: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
McCormick & Schmick’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning

CHAPTER 6: DAY PART & ORDERING BEHAVIOR TREND ANALYSIS

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Dinner daypart accounts for half of all usage; breakfast less than 10%
Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010
With age comes wisdom—and breakfast restaurant use
Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Age
When it comes to HH income, all dayparts are created equal
Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by HH Income
For Black and Asian restaurant goers, sweet snacks and just a beverage more popular
Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity
Dinner ordering behavior: two menu items per person is the norm
25-34s most likely to order appetizers, alcoholic beverages; 65+ diners most likely to order dessert
Figure: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by Age
Alcoholic beverage use 60% more likely among $75K+ diners
Figure: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by HH Income
Daypart trends
Convenience stores
Fast food/QSR
Family restaurants
Snacking
Dessert
Daypart pricing trends

CHAPTER 7: RESTAURANT & MENU SELECTION ANALYSIS: OVERVIEW

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Convenience and familiarity more apt to influence decision than discounts
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors, February-March 2010
Among restaurant attributes, environmentally friendly practices least apt to influence
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010
Direct experience with restaurant more likely to influence than recommendations
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, February-March 2010
A range of discounts and incentives share influence among consumers
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010
Healthy and new menu items not a significant restaurant draw
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Preferences, February-March 2010
On the menu, combo plates and mix-and-match options spur selections
Figure: Menu Item Selection Factors, February-March 2010

CHAPTER 8: CONSUMER FOOD & HEALTH ATTITUDE ANALYSIS: OVERVIEW

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by Age
Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by HH Income

CHAPTER 9: RESTAURANT & MENU SELECTION ANALYSIS: DISCOUNTING AND INCENTIVES, FOOD ATTRIBUTES, AND MENU ATTRIBUTES

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Influence of discounts and incentives on consumers
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010
Degree of influence correlates with youth
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by Age
Specials & combos spur bottom end; gift cards & loyalty programs spur middle and high end
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by HH Income
Take note of different needs by race & ethnicity
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity
Yes, food matters
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010
To 18-34s: Here’s to your health! Something new? Something small?
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010, by Age
With heavier pocketbooks comes wider interest in cuisine, healthful items & smaller portions
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010, by HH Income
Higher interest in rewards programs among healthy eaters and online order placers
Figure: Food and Health Attitudes, by Discounts & Incentive Preference, February-March 2010
Menu item strategies that incent selection
Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010
Fickle youth, strongly persuaded by all but smaller portions
Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010, by Age
HH income: LTOs & lower prices draw lower end; waiter recs & new items the higher end
Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010, by HH Income
Menu item selection influence among men & women by healthy eating characteristics
Health Attitudes, Gender Column, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010
Menu item selection influence among men & women by budgeting
characteristics
Budget Attitudes, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010
Gift cards and loyalty rewards programs to pick up steam
Menu pricing strategy a top priority
Promotions, promotions, promotions: getting granular
A healthful America: whether we like it or not
Menu regulation
Figure: Prevalence of Adult Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity, 1988-2006
Figure: Prevalence of Overweight Among Children and Adolescents, 1988-2006

CHAPTER 10: RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: RESTAURANT ATTRIBUTES, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND OTHER PREFERENCES

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Practical but memorable, with a twist
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010
Environmental pulse quickens with youth
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010, by Age
Special services, ambience, and quick service influenced by HH income
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010, by HH Income
Take me to . . . where I’ve already been!
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010
Age: Reputation and past experience versus recommendations, reviews and something new
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010, by Age
Higher HH income; higher use of online reviews
Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010, by HH Income
Convenience comes in many flavors
Reimaging the rule, not the exception
Dual branding trend widens

CHAPTER 11: FAST FOOD VERSUS CASUAL RESTAURANT USERS: FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

Fast Food, Family, and Casual Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, by Age, February-March 2010
Fast Food, Family, and Casual Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, by HH Income, February-March 2010
Fast Food Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, Gender Column, February-March 2010

CHAPTER 12: PSYCHOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS: BUDGETERS, HEALTH SEEKERS, AND BIG EATERS

Introduction
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Age, February-March 2010
Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by HH Income, February-March 2010
Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Discount & Incentive Preference, February-March 2010
Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010
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