Demand Outlook on Bus Market in India by 2024-25
Bus is an important medium in public transportation and rapid urbanization of metros are only likely to increase demand for buses in the overall transportation portfolio in a given city. Buses is an important mode of transportation for inter-city, intra-city related short to long distances routes. State Road Transportation Undertaking (SRTUs) and private fleet operators own over 66% of the total buses in the M&HCV segment. Schools, Offices, Airports are some of the other segments where buses are used for shorter transit. Improved road connectivity, increasing aviation infrastructure, smart cities, growing schooling infrastructure across metros, tier 1 and tier 2 cities, indicate a promising future for the demand for buses. During 2015-16, the M&HCV passenger carrier segment, classified as maximum mass exceeding 7.5T but not exceeding 12T and maximum mass exceeding 12T but not 16.2T grew by 19.5%, selling 43,885 buses as compared to negative growth of 4.83% (36,837 buses) and 17.48% (38,709 buses) during FY15 and FY14 respectively.The upward trajectory for demand for buses has started and its anticipated that the growth will continue in the years to come, this growth will be fuelled by both, new demand and replacement demand. Figure below, indicates the average ageing of bus fleet in different SRTUs, which clearly indicates huge upcoming replacement opportunity.With overall recovery in the economy and expected new orders by SRTUs, the bus sector is likely to witness strong growth. Within the segments, the M&HCV segment is likely to outperform on account of JNNURM orders, revival in demand from Private Carriers and low-base effect. Apart from existing order, the domestic bus sales are also likely to benefit from a) Government’s recent proposal of opening up the passenger transport sector to private players, b) higher allocation towards urban development projects and other initiatives such as “Smart Cities” etc. InfraInsights research report will provide a detailed analysis on emerging demand from different end user industry segments. Report will be data intensive and will help companies to plan their business in the years to come.
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. RESEARCH APPROACH & METHODOLOGY
3. BUS MARKET LANDSCAPE IN INDIA
a. Key Players – Buyer & Sellers
b. Application Areas
i. School Bus
ii. Highways STU
iii. Intercity Private
iv. Intra City
v. Staff Bus
vi. Ambulance
vii. Airport
c. Overall installed capacity
4. TREND IS BUS PROCUREMENT BY LEADING STATE TRANSPORT UNDERTAKING (E.G. KSRTC, BEST...)
a. Current Fleet
b. Fleet Age analysis
c. Procurement levels since 2010
d. Type of buses preferred
i. 7m, 9m, 12m
ii. Air conditioned vs non air conditioned
iii. Diesel, CNG / LPG, Electric & Hybrid
5. BUS MARKET IN INDIA IN 2016-17
a. By OEMs
b. By GVW [7.5T, 12T, 16.2T]
c. By length
d. By end application segment (School, Airports, STU etc…)
e. By Air Condition Vs non Air Condition
f. By States / Regions
6. PROJECTING DEMAND FOR SCHOOL BUS BY 2024-25
a. Evaluating typical school size, scale that requires bus
b. Evaluating norms on number of bus per school children
c. Evaluating the number of schools growth trajectory in major metros, tier 1, tier 2 cities in India
d. Evaluating preferences of bus in terms of size, # of seatings, air conditioned vs non air conditioned across different cities
e. Projecting demand for School Bus till 2024-25
7. PROJECTING DEMAND FOR BUSES FROM STATE TRANSPORT UNDERTAKING BY 2024-25
a. Evaluating the current fleet size & ageing of bus fleet in STUs across leading Metros, Tier 1 and Tier 2 Cities
i. Intercity
ii. Intracity
b. Evaluating portfolio of buses across the STUs
i. GVW
ii. Length
iii. Seating Capacity
iv. Air Condition Vs Non Air Condition
v. Local OEMs vs Imported
c. Procurement Strategy of STUs
d. Projecting demand for buses from STUs
i. By GVW
ii. By Length
iii. By Seating Capacity
iv. By Air Condition Vs Non Air Condition
v. By Local OEMs (Tata, AL, Eicher) Vs Others (SCANIA, Mercedez, MAN etc..)
8. PROJECTING DEMAND FOR AMBULANCES FROM HOSPITALS BY 2024-25
a. Profiling typical hospital size and scale, vis-a-vis number of ambulances required
b. Estimating growth in hospital across metro cities, tier 1 and tier 2 cities
c. Deriving ambulance consumption norms
d. Extrapolating demand for ambulances by 2024-25
9. PROJECTING DEMAND FOR BUSES AT AIRPORTS
a. Detailing the current bus fleet across different airports
i. Ageing analysis
ii. Local vs Import
iii. Length of Buses
iv. Type of Buses
v. By fuel type
b. Typical Lifecycle and replacement TAT for buses used at airports
c. Projected growth in airport terminals across India
i. Impact of Udan initiative
ii. Analysis on new airport projects scheduled over next 10 years
d. Extrapolating norms of bus consumption per unit of passengers handled by airport
e. Extrapolating demand for bus
i. Local vs Import
ii. Length of Buses
iii. Type of Buses
iv. By fuel type
10. 10. BENCHMARKING BUS OEMS INDIA OPERATIONS
a. Manufacturing Capacity
b. Yearly Sales Volume
c. Product Portfolio
11. KEY POLICY DRIVERS FOR BUS INDUSTRY IN INDIA
12. GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION AND SUPPORT THAT WILL DRIVE THE SECTOR
13. ELECTRIC BUSES PROSPECTIVE POTENTIAL IN INDIA
14. TOP EXPORT AND IMPORT COUNTRIES
a. Trend analysis on import and export over last 10 years
15. PESTEL ANALYSIS FOR INDIAN BUS MARKET
16. DEMAND FOR TYRES FROM BUS SEGMENT
2. RESEARCH APPROACH & METHODOLOGY
3. BUS MARKET LANDSCAPE IN INDIA
a. Key Players – Buyer & Sellers
b. Application Areas
i. School Bus
ii. Highways STU
iii. Intercity Private
iv. Intra City
v. Staff Bus
vi. Ambulance
vii. Airport
c. Overall installed capacity
4. TREND IS BUS PROCUREMENT BY LEADING STATE TRANSPORT UNDERTAKING (E.G. KSRTC, BEST...)
a. Current Fleet
b. Fleet Age analysis
c. Procurement levels since 2010
d. Type of buses preferred
i. 7m, 9m, 12m
ii. Air conditioned vs non air conditioned
iii. Diesel, CNG / LPG, Electric & Hybrid
5. BUS MARKET IN INDIA IN 2016-17
a. By OEMs
b. By GVW [7.5T, 12T, 16.2T]
c. By length
d. By end application segment (School, Airports, STU etc…)
e. By Air Condition Vs non Air Condition
f. By States / Regions
6. PROJECTING DEMAND FOR SCHOOL BUS BY 2024-25
a. Evaluating typical school size, scale that requires bus
b. Evaluating norms on number of bus per school children
c. Evaluating the number of schools growth trajectory in major metros, tier 1, tier 2 cities in India
d. Evaluating preferences of bus in terms of size, # of seatings, air conditioned vs non air conditioned across different cities
e. Projecting demand for School Bus till 2024-25
7. PROJECTING DEMAND FOR BUSES FROM STATE TRANSPORT UNDERTAKING BY 2024-25
a. Evaluating the current fleet size & ageing of bus fleet in STUs across leading Metros, Tier 1 and Tier 2 Cities
i. Intercity
ii. Intracity
b. Evaluating portfolio of buses across the STUs
i. GVW
ii. Length
iii. Seating Capacity
iv. Air Condition Vs Non Air Condition
v. Local OEMs vs Imported
c. Procurement Strategy of STUs
d. Projecting demand for buses from STUs
i. By GVW
ii. By Length
iii. By Seating Capacity
iv. By Air Condition Vs Non Air Condition
v. By Local OEMs (Tata, AL, Eicher) Vs Others (SCANIA, Mercedez, MAN etc..)
8. PROJECTING DEMAND FOR AMBULANCES FROM HOSPITALS BY 2024-25
a. Profiling typical hospital size and scale, vis-a-vis number of ambulances required
b. Estimating growth in hospital across metro cities, tier 1 and tier 2 cities
c. Deriving ambulance consumption norms
d. Extrapolating demand for ambulances by 2024-25
9. PROJECTING DEMAND FOR BUSES AT AIRPORTS
a. Detailing the current bus fleet across different airports
i. Ageing analysis
ii. Local vs Import
iii. Length of Buses
iv. Type of Buses
v. By fuel type
b. Typical Lifecycle and replacement TAT for buses used at airports
c. Projected growth in airport terminals across India
i. Impact of Udan initiative
ii. Analysis on new airport projects scheduled over next 10 years
d. Extrapolating norms of bus consumption per unit of passengers handled by airport
e. Extrapolating demand for bus
i. Local vs Import
ii. Length of Buses
iii. Type of Buses
iv. By fuel type
10. 10. BENCHMARKING BUS OEMS INDIA OPERATIONS
a. Manufacturing Capacity
b. Yearly Sales Volume
c. Product Portfolio
11. KEY POLICY DRIVERS FOR BUS INDUSTRY IN INDIA
12. GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION AND SUPPORT THAT WILL DRIVE THE SECTOR
13. ELECTRIC BUSES PROSPECTIVE POTENTIAL IN INDIA
14. TOP EXPORT AND IMPORT COUNTRIES
a. Trend analysis on import and export over last 10 years
15. PESTEL ANALYSIS FOR INDIAN BUS MARKET
16. DEMAND FOR TYRES FROM BUS SEGMENT
