The U.S. Weight Loss & Diet Control Market (14th Edition)
The U.S. weight loss market is now worth a record $66 billion, but the number of dieters has fallen, due to the growth of the size acceptance and body positivity movement. Do-it-yourself plans still abound as consumers use free diet & fitness apps. Consumers are shunning processed foods and artificial ingredients, but frozen food makers have adjusted and sales are showing signs of growth. Commercial diet chains are posting strong growth. Many untapped niches still exist. The Affordable Care Act has strengthened the value proposition of medically supervised diet programs and small-mid-sized franchises are growing. The market is moving in two directions: medical and retail.
This is a completely revised and updated analysis of Marketdata’s best-selling biennial study about the $66 billion U.S. weight loss market. This is the most comprehensive investigation of the U.S. weight loss market published by anyone worldwide.
Covered... dollar value & growth rates of the 10 major weight loss market segments (early 1980s to 2016, 2017 and 2022 forecasts), latest market trends and developments, status reports for: diet soft drinks, artificial sweeteners, health clubs, commercial diet center chains, multi-level marketing diet plans, OTC meal replacements and diet pills, diet websites & apps, meal kits/prepared food delivery services, medical programs (weight loss surgery, MDs, hospitals/clinic programs, Rx diet drugs, bariatricians, VLCD programs), low-cal entrees and low-carb foods, diet books, and exercise DVDs.
New for this edition:
Also included: Top 30 competitors ranking, 28-year revenues of the market through past recessions, comprehensive dieter demographics, weight loss center franchising, and extensive national/state commercial centers’ operating ratios. Rankings & revenues of top commercial chains, brand sales, and a Reference Directory.
Contains 35+ in-depth updated competitor profiles for: Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig, NutriSystem, Medifast, Herbalife, Visalus, Isagenix, MyFitnessPal, Slim-Fast, Atkins Nutritionals, Physicians Weight Loss, HMR, Optifast, Lindora Clinics, Slimgenics, Ideal Protein, Curves, LA Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, Metabolic Research, Smart For Life, Medi-Weightloss, Centers for Medical Weight Loss, Nuviva, JumptStart MD, Thinique, Dr. G’s, and many more.
This is a completely revised and updated analysis of Marketdata’s best-selling biennial study about the $66 billion U.S. weight loss market. This is the most comprehensive investigation of the U.S. weight loss market published by anyone worldwide.
Covered... dollar value & growth rates of the 10 major weight loss market segments (early 1980s to 2016, 2017 and 2022 forecasts), latest market trends and developments, status reports for: diet soft drinks, artificial sweeteners, health clubs, commercial diet center chains, multi-level marketing diet plans, OTC meal replacements and diet pills, diet websites & apps, meal kits/prepared food delivery services, medical programs (weight loss surgery, MDs, hospitals/clinic programs, Rx diet drugs, bariatricians, VLCD programs), low-cal entrees and low-carb foods, diet books, and exercise DVDs.
New for this edition:
- 2017 & 2022 Forecasts. Completely updated competitor profiles, newly popular diets.
- How the 2017 diet season is shaping up. 2016 market performance.
- Chapter about competing meal kits/prepared food delivery services.
- The implosion and recovery of Weight Watchers. The Oprah effect. Lessons learned.
- Why MLM has gained as a distribution model; why meal replacements are booming, but not OTC diet pills.
- The real impact of free/low-cost diet and fitness apps.
- Outlook for medical programs in view of Obamacare and Trump Administration.
- Status of prescription obesity drugs market, sales of Belviq, Qsymia, Contrave.
Also included: Top 30 competitors ranking, 28-year revenues of the market through past recessions, comprehensive dieter demographics, weight loss center franchising, and extensive national/state commercial centers’ operating ratios. Rankings & revenues of top commercial chains, brand sales, and a Reference Directory.
Contains 35+ in-depth updated competitor profiles for: Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig, NutriSystem, Medifast, Herbalife, Visalus, Isagenix, MyFitnessPal, Slim-Fast, Atkins Nutritionals, Physicians Weight Loss, HMR, Optifast, Lindora Clinics, Slimgenics, Ideal Protein, Curves, LA Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, Metabolic Research, Smart For Life, Medi-Weightloss, Centers for Medical Weight Loss, Nuviva, JumptStart MD, Thinique, Dr. G’s, and many more.
VOLUME
INTRODUCTION, SCOPE, METHODOLOGY
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW ($300)
Discussion of diet market mega-trends: shift from diet products to services, medical programs gain momentum under ACA, what’s wrong with commercial chains, importance of counselors, franchising pros & cons, consumer clean eating trend, move to retail outlets
Outlook for new 2017 diet season, discussion of rise of MLM firms, DIY trends, company programs, competition from apps, advertising strategies
Summary of major market developments & trends of 2015-2017
$ size of market and its 9 segments, forecasted 2017-2022 growth rates for segments
Market Segment Outlooks for 2016, 2017, 2022: commercial chains, diet soft drinks & artificial sweeteners, low-cal foods, meal replacements & appetite suppressants mkt., medical weight loss programs (hospitals & clinics, bariatric surgery, Rx diet drugs), status of diet food delivery market & weight loss websites
Table: Historical market revenues $ size, by segment: 1989-2016
Table: Revenues of top commercial chains: 2009-2022 F
Table: Diet soft drink sales: 1989-2022 F
Table: Revenues of health clubs industry: 1993-2022 F
Table: No. of bariatric surgeries in the U.S. – 1992-2022 F
Table: Value of meal replacements and OTC diet pills sales: 2005-2022 F
Highlights of ALL study chapters.
DIETER DEMOGRAPHICS ($200)
Scope of the American obesity epidemic, number/percent obese or overweight, latest CDC data, obesity rates by state, recent dieter trends (shift to do-it-yourself methods during last recession), ranking of top diet programs by U.S. News
Discussion: how many Americans diet, how often, why diets fail, methods used
Dieter actions don’t match intentions: survey results, the January diet surge
To healthy eating trends of 2016 – predictions, top 10 diet types used by consumers
Typical dieter profile, by age, sex, income – number of diet attempts per year
Number of dieters by method used, no. of dieters by type plan (2016)
Dieter profiles by: BMI, budget, starting weight, preferred diet program location, type food desired, previous diet plans used, readiness, exercise plan desired, % needing psychological support, % with special foods needs (BestDietForMe.com – 2005-2012 data)
Analysis of current & historical dieting trends, 10-year shifts in dieting methods
Table: State/regional obesity statistics: % of population, 1991-2015
FINDINGS OF DIETER SURVEYS/PROFILES BY:
Calorie Control Council, no. of U.S. dieters & low-cal food/beverage users, top dieting methods used, low-cal food/beverage usage by kind, diet attempts
AMERICAN EXERCISE TRENDS, HEALTH CLUBS & WEIGHT LOSS PROGRAMS ($250)
Status Report of U.S. Health Clubs Industry - no. of facilities, type clubs, number of club members, recent trends, Industry receipts: 1993-2022 F, characteristics of club members, drop-out rates, members by type club, estd. share of clubs with diet programs. (IHRSA)
ASCM’s top fitness trends for 2017, forecasts
15 top participant sports -1995-2011, (NSGA), 2001-2011 % chg. In participation
Most popular women’s sports: types of exercise equipment, home exercise trends
How women keep fit, most popular types of exercise equip. used, general trends in exercise, home exercise and gyms.
Health clubs’ involvement with weight loss, % with programs, using clubs as weight loss method, samples/costs of typical diet programs offered by health clubs (Think Light plan).
Reasons why health clubs’ weight loss programs fail, programs vary greatly in price & content– consultants’ analysis, private label wt. loss programs (A. Rothafel)
Company Profiles: Curves, 24 Hour Fitness, LA Fitness - their weight loss programs.
COMMERCIAL WEIGHT LOSS CHAINS ($695)
Summary & nature of competitors, status report/major developments since 2015 (no. of centers left, avg. cost of major commercial plans vs. medical and self-help plans 2015-2016 segment performance, 2017 outlook, estd. revenues of leaders, 2017 forecast
In-depth discussion of Weight Watchers implosion and turnaround, success of NutriSystem, Jenny Craig/Curves merger, why medical programs are strong competitors, factors affecting 2017 diet season, program customization, latest hot diets
Obamacare’s effects on commercial programs, competitive disadvantage
Positive/negative factors affecting growth from 2017-2022.
Table: Avg. cost of popular diet programs (Forbes)
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE & KEY RATIOS
2012, 2007, 2002 industry snapshots for commercial diet centers: no. of establishments, legal form of firms, top 50 firms mkt. share, ratios by firm’s receipts, top states
Sample income statement for a typical commercial center: (expenses by type, profits)
Avg. revenues per co.-owned/franchised center for Jenny Craig & LA Weight Loss
Avg. costs to acquire new customers
What commercial centers have in common, expansion of 1980s/contraction of 1990s 1982-88 diet franchise avg. revenues per unit, no. of centers/sites operated by top chains.
Franchising: status of, use as growth strategy, investment costs, profiles of Wt. Watchers, Jenny Craig franchises, why franchising may be less viable, commercial chains survival actions.
CENSUS BUREAU OPERATING RATIOS: 2012, 2007, 2002 (COMMERCIAL DIET CENTERS/SERVICES) (NO. OFESTABS., FIRMS, RECEIPTS, RECEIPTS PER ESTAB., PAYROLL AS % SALES, ETC.)
Table: Industry snapshot: no. of estabs., receipts, avg. per estab. & employee, payroll as % sales, etc.
Table: Employee sales/payroll productivity
Table: Establishments, by legal form (corporations, partnerships, sole proprietors)
Table: Market share for largest 4, 8, 20, 50 firms
Table: Ratios, by single vs. multi-unit firms
Table: Ratios, by receipts size of firms & establishments
Table: No. of diet centers, by state & region, avg. receipts per estab. By state
Table: No. of diet centers, by state, ranked by sales and avg. receipts per establishment
Table: 2013 no. of estabs. payroll, estd. receipts, by state, ranked (County Business Patterns)
Table: 1982-2022 F commercial weight loss center revenues
Table: No. of U.S. weight control services (1991-2015)
Table: Number of commercial centers (2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016- top chains)
Table: Sales of the top chains (incl. Wt. Watchers, Jenny Craig, NutriSystem, Medifast): 2001-2016
COMPANY PROFILES: IN-DEPTH COMPANY HISTORY, CURRENT STATUS, HOW PROGRAMS WORK, COSTS, FRANCHISE SYSTEMS, 2009-2016 & HISTORICAL REVENUES, NEW PROGRAMS, STRATEGIES, ADDRESS/WEBSITE):
Weight Watchers International
Jenny Craig
NutriSystem
Medifast
Health Management Group (Diet Center, Physicians Wt. Loss)
Metabolic Research Centers
Slimgenics
ONLINE DIETING: WEIGHT LOSS WEBSITES & MOBILE APPS ($200)
Nature of diet websites and nutrition services, how they work, status report/trends for: Sparkpeople.com, WeightWatchers.com, Diets In Review, Calories Count: advertising costs and new challenges, importance of search engine optimization.
Market $ size: 2005-2022 F, major trends
Discussion: Is online dieting effective?
Profile of online dieter characteristics: Bestdietforme.com visitors by: sex, age, BMI, starting weight, medical conditions, budget, preferred program sites, interest in surgery and diet food home delivery, previous plans used, type food desired, readiness, exercise preferences, need for pysch support. – annual metrics as 2005-2012
List of the top diet websites, parent co. name, address
Diet Apps – how big a threat to commercial chains? Why the threat is overblown, shortcomings of brick & mortar companies/what they can do to compete better.
Descriptions of top weight loss apps
My Fitness Pal – Company Profile (funding, growth, buy-out by Under Armour)
VOLUME
THE DIET SOFT DRINKS & ARTIFICIAL SWEETENERS, DIET FOOD MARKETS ($350)
The Diet Soft Drinks Market
Status Report 2016, why the slump continues, diet soft drinks as % total soft drinks, mkt. nature and historical growth, forecasts, demographics of consumers, diet’s share of all carbonated soft drinks (Beverage Industry, Beverage Digest),
Total soft drink retail $ sales, diet share of gallons/retail sales: 1989-2016, 2017-2022 forecast
1989-2022 F diet soft drink $ sales
Table: Demographics of diet soft drink consumers, historical nature of the market.
The Artificial Sweeteners Market
Status Report of the mkt., developments rebellion-high fructose corn syrup, Stevia, Sucralose, Splenda, consumer trend to avoid artificial ingredients, 2010 data from Calorie Control Council regarding use by consumers
Sweeteners by end use (% for soft drinks vs. tabletop sweeteners mkt.)
Description of major types (Aspartame, Neotame, Saccharin, Sucralose, Stevia, Acesulfame)
Market size & growth, historical sales 1991-2016 performance, 2017, 2022 forecasts.
Low-cal Diet Entrees & Low-carb Foods Market p.24
Mkt. Status Report, definition of “diet” foods, discussion of dinner entrees, the major brands, Consumers shift to fresh foods away from frozen, actions by food industry to spur sales
Trend toward eating more high protein foods
Marketdata mkt. size estimates for 1994 to 2022 F
Outlook and sales estim. For 2013-2016 $ volume for Lean Cuisine, Smart Ones, Healthy Choice
Low-cal “diet” entrees mkt. size: Healthy Choice, Wt. Watchers, Lean Cuisine retail sales, brands outlooks in 2015-2016
The Low-carb Foods Market
Analysis of no. of people using Atkins as diet plan, why the trend has faded but is not dead/some resurgence in low glycemic foods, Paleo Diet, popular diet books
Low-cal user demographics: consumer use of low-cal foods/beverages: Calorie Control Council survey, most popular low-fat foods, top reasons people choose them
Company Profile: Atkins Nutritionals
THE MEAL KITS DELIVERY SERVICES MARKET ($250)
Definition and nature of the market, types of meal delivery services, why demand exists, growth spurred by venture capital, market trends & issues (independent contractors), importance of Milennials, customer demographics
Analysis of three market segments (dollar value 2015 & 2020 F, major competitors and revenues, key metrics,
recent developments: 1) Healthy/Fresh Foods/Meal Kits Delivery Market, 2) Diet Food Delivery Market, 3) Premium Meats & Desserts/Specialty Foods Mail Order Market.
Analysis of how meal delivery services work, evolution of the meal kits market, types of meal delivery services (software, grocery delivery, on-demand services, different generations of services: GrubHub, Doordash, Munchery, Sprig, Spoonrocket, etc.), operating models used.
RETAIL MEAL REPLACEMENTS & APPETITE SUPPRESSANTS MARKET ($350)
Definition/nature of meal replacements vs. over-the-counter (OTC) diet pills, ingredients being used today, new herbal products: coffee bean extract, HCG drops
History/nature of mkt.- cyclical shifts from mid-1980s
User demographics: no. and % of dieters using diet pills and meal replacements (Consumer Reports, Bestdietforme.com surveys: 2005-2012 data).
2016 Status Report of the market: estd. Channel sales (diet pills, meal replace.), findings of Nutrition Business Journal (NBJ) research, top diet pill brands sales: 2015, top meal replacements brands sales
Why growth outlook is strong for meal replacements, preferred by MDs, MLMs, commercial Chains, why OTC diet pills mkt. still struggles for legitimacy
Regulatory actions, FTC fines marketers (Acai berry, Lipozene, QuickTrim), waning of the Dr. OZ effect/warning on touting “miracle” products for weight loss, Hyroxycut’s fall
Marketdata discussion of traditional/nontraditional distribution channels
Mkt. size/growth: true size of the mkt. - why estimates differ widely
NBJ estimates of diet pill & meal replacements $ and % sales, by distribution channels, discussion of multilevel firms (Advocare, Shaklee, Herbalife, Quixtar, Nu-Skin, EAS, Atkins)
Marketdata estimates of growth for diet pills & meal replacements 2016-2022, demand factors.
Table:
Table: Marketdata estimates of OTC diet pills, meal replacements, combined sales - 1981-2016
Table: Discussion of 2015-2016 market performance, 2017 outlook, 2022 forecasts
Table: Top OTC diet pill brand sales in 2007, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015
Company profiles: Slim-Fast, Herbalife, Visalus Life Sciences , Isagenix, Advocare (revenues, strategies, product lines, marketing, Herbalife war with H. Ackman’s hedge fund, effect on other MLMs rapid rise and fall of Visalus)
MEDICALLY-SUPERVISED WEIGHT LOSS PROGRAMS (ALL MEDICAL SECTIONS: $695)
HOSPITAL & CLINIC CHAINS WEIGHT LOSS PROGRAMS ($250)
Types of plans offered (low-cost, moderate-cost plans, estd. no. of hospitals providing each, typical cost), Medicare new coverage
Physician-based diet programs: diet drugs/other methods used, consumer attitudes, limitations, estd. no. MDs with a weight loss program – independents vs. affiliated with chains, meds used, typical cost of MD programs
How Obamacare has provided a game-changing opportunity for MDs to add weight loss & counseling services via PAs, RDs, Nurses
Profiles of a hospital-based weight loss program: Johns Hopkins
Major Medical Chains: Lindora Clinics, Centers for Medical Weight Loss, Smart for Life Medi-Weightloss Clinics, Medical Weight Loss of Michigan, new chains: Nuviva, Thinique, Dr. G’s, let’s Lose, JumpstartMD, Ideal Protein, Profile Sanford (in-depth descriptions, plan costs, estimated revenues, no. of centers, franchising growth strategies).
Table: Avg. revenues per site, avg. plan cost to patient, avg. income statement, start-up Costs for top 8 medical weight loss chains/franchises/licensors.
BARIATRICIAN PROGRAMS ($100)
status report of profession, ASBP survey results (MDs by: age, income, size practice), how they’re trained, number practicing, certification by ASBP, use of diet drugs, treatment methods used, plan effectiveness/cost, business is up due to more surgeries, less surgeries – opinions of industry consultant.
THE WEIGHT LOSS (BARIATRIC) SURGERY MARKET ($250)
Discussion of gastric bypass & lapband procedures, why demand grew strongly to 2007, status report, 2016 estimated surgeries, 2017 & 2022 forecasts, costs per surgery by type payor, pros/cons, who qualifies, effect of Obamacare on coverage by 25 state exchanges
Surgery utilization and outcomes, mean cost per surgery
Major insurers’ coverage today, status report, Medicare position, role of liaison firms (The Wish Centers, Barix Clinics, Liv-Lite, Journey Lite - addresses), avg. cost of surgery.
Types of surgery: Roux-en-Y, lap banding, minigastric bypass, sleeve, consumer pros/cons
Table: No. of bariatric surgeries performed: 1992-2016
Table: $ value of the market: 1992-2022 F, outlook under Obamacare
Associations: ASBS, Obesity Action Coalition, increased lobbying efforts.
VLCD/LCD FASTING SUPPLEMENT PROGRAMS ($250)
Status report of low-calorie modified fasting programs in 2016, effect of bariatric surgeries, outlooks by mgmt. at HMR, strong demand from hospitals for tunkey programs characterizing the mkt. (price, programs, no. of sites, increased direct-to-customer sales)
Historical nature of market - development from 1970s-1990s, enrollments, drop-out/completion rates, problem on insurance coverage, market indicators, positive/negative trends/factors
@TABLE: MARKETDATA ESTIMATES OF VLCD ENROLLMENTS FOR 1995-2016 (NEW VS. REPEAT PATIENTS, FASTING VS. MAINTENANCE), $ VALUE OF MKT. FOR 1984-2022 F.
Company Profiles: Detailed descriptions of companies/plans, program revenues: Health Management Resources, Optifast (Nestle)
@TABLE: VLCD ENROLLMENTS, $ MKT. VALUE: MARKETDATA ESTIMATES: 2007-2014.
THE DIET DRUGS MARKET ($200)
Discussion of viewing obesity as a disease, major obesity medications used today, FDA position, role of MDs, commercial chains’ involvement with diet drugs, why it’s tougher than thought to develop anti-obesity drugs that are effective and with minimal side effects.
Status Report: Contrave, Qsymia & Belviq sales & outlooks, FDA rejections of: Acomplia, Taranabant, other Rx diet drugs
Other new obesity drugs in development: Saxenda, Beloranib, Mirabegron
Existing drugs used (Xenical, Phentermine) - descriptions
Table: prescriptions written and $ sales for: Meridia, Xenical, Phentermine, 12 other anti-obesity drugs (2003-2016), historical sales 1995-2000
Marketdata’s 2017 and 2022 outlooks for prescription diet drugs, effect of new drugs on mkt. Size, discussion of this market’s potential vs. drawbacks, overcoming MD and consumer Attitudes, side effects, effectiveness. Moderate weight loss not enough for most dieters.
THE DIET BOOKS & EXERCISE DVDS MARKET ($150)
Diet books – nature of the mkt., new 2015 & 2016 diet books, buyer demographics, what makes Bestsellers, book buyer demographics, recent titles by Dr. Phil, Al Roker, Jillian Michaels
Exercise DVDs mkt., summary, top names in the field, categories, top distributors, mkt. size
Marketdata estimates of combined diet books/exercise DVDs mkts. For 2016, 2017, Outlooks and rationale, popularity as DIY method.
Table: $ sales of diet books & exercise DVDs: 1989-2022 F
REFERENCE DIRECTORY OF WEIGHT LOSS INFORMATION SOURCES
Industry & government trade associations, journals, newsletters, magazines, consultants
INTRODUCTION, SCOPE, METHODOLOGY
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW ($300)
Discussion of diet market mega-trends: shift from diet products to services, medical programs gain momentum under ACA, what’s wrong with commercial chains, importance of counselors, franchising pros & cons, consumer clean eating trend, move to retail outlets
Outlook for new 2017 diet season, discussion of rise of MLM firms, DIY trends, company programs, competition from apps, advertising strategies
Summary of major market developments & trends of 2015-2017
$ size of market and its 9 segments, forecasted 2017-2022 growth rates for segments
Market Segment Outlooks for 2016, 2017, 2022: commercial chains, diet soft drinks & artificial sweeteners, low-cal foods, meal replacements & appetite suppressants mkt., medical weight loss programs (hospitals & clinics, bariatric surgery, Rx diet drugs), status of diet food delivery market & weight loss websites
Table: Historical market revenues $ size, by segment: 1989-2016
Table: Revenues of top commercial chains: 2009-2022 F
Table: Diet soft drink sales: 1989-2022 F
Table: Revenues of health clubs industry: 1993-2022 F
Table: No. of bariatric surgeries in the U.S. – 1992-2022 F
Table: Value of meal replacements and OTC diet pills sales: 2005-2022 F
Highlights of ALL study chapters.
DIETER DEMOGRAPHICS ($200)
Scope of the American obesity epidemic, number/percent obese or overweight, latest CDC data, obesity rates by state, recent dieter trends (shift to do-it-yourself methods during last recession), ranking of top diet programs by U.S. News
Discussion: how many Americans diet, how often, why diets fail, methods used
Dieter actions don’t match intentions: survey results, the January diet surge
To healthy eating trends of 2016 – predictions, top 10 diet types used by consumers
Typical dieter profile, by age, sex, income – number of diet attempts per year
Number of dieters by method used, no. of dieters by type plan (2016)
Dieter profiles by: BMI, budget, starting weight, preferred diet program location, type food desired, previous diet plans used, readiness, exercise plan desired, % needing psychological support, % with special foods needs (BestDietForMe.com – 2005-2012 data)
Analysis of current & historical dieting trends, 10-year shifts in dieting methods
Table: State/regional obesity statistics: % of population, 1991-2015
FINDINGS OF DIETER SURVEYS/PROFILES BY:
Calorie Control Council, no. of U.S. dieters & low-cal food/beverage users, top dieting methods used, low-cal food/beverage usage by kind, diet attempts
AMERICAN EXERCISE TRENDS, HEALTH CLUBS & WEIGHT LOSS PROGRAMS ($250)
Status Report of U.S. Health Clubs Industry - no. of facilities, type clubs, number of club members, recent trends, Industry receipts: 1993-2022 F, characteristics of club members, drop-out rates, members by type club, estd. share of clubs with diet programs. (IHRSA)
ASCM’s top fitness trends for 2017, forecasts
15 top participant sports -1995-2011, (NSGA), 2001-2011 % chg. In participation
Most popular women’s sports: types of exercise equipment, home exercise trends
How women keep fit, most popular types of exercise equip. used, general trends in exercise, home exercise and gyms.
Health clubs’ involvement with weight loss, % with programs, using clubs as weight loss method, samples/costs of typical diet programs offered by health clubs (Think Light plan).
Reasons why health clubs’ weight loss programs fail, programs vary greatly in price & content– consultants’ analysis, private label wt. loss programs (A. Rothafel)
Company Profiles: Curves, 24 Hour Fitness, LA Fitness - their weight loss programs.
COMMERCIAL WEIGHT LOSS CHAINS ($695)
Summary & nature of competitors, status report/major developments since 2015 (no. of centers left, avg. cost of major commercial plans vs. medical and self-help plans 2015-2016 segment performance, 2017 outlook, estd. revenues of leaders, 2017 forecast
In-depth discussion of Weight Watchers implosion and turnaround, success of NutriSystem, Jenny Craig/Curves merger, why medical programs are strong competitors, factors affecting 2017 diet season, program customization, latest hot diets
Obamacare’s effects on commercial programs, competitive disadvantage
Positive/negative factors affecting growth from 2017-2022.
Table: Avg. cost of popular diet programs (Forbes)
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE & KEY RATIOS
2012, 2007, 2002 industry snapshots for commercial diet centers: no. of establishments, legal form of firms, top 50 firms mkt. share, ratios by firm’s receipts, top states
Sample income statement for a typical commercial center: (expenses by type, profits)
Avg. revenues per co.-owned/franchised center for Jenny Craig & LA Weight Loss
Avg. costs to acquire new customers
What commercial centers have in common, expansion of 1980s/contraction of 1990s 1982-88 diet franchise avg. revenues per unit, no. of centers/sites operated by top chains.
Franchising: status of, use as growth strategy, investment costs, profiles of Wt. Watchers, Jenny Craig franchises, why franchising may be less viable, commercial chains survival actions.
CENSUS BUREAU OPERATING RATIOS: 2012, 2007, 2002 (COMMERCIAL DIET CENTERS/SERVICES) (NO. OFESTABS., FIRMS, RECEIPTS, RECEIPTS PER ESTAB., PAYROLL AS % SALES, ETC.)
Table: Industry snapshot: no. of estabs., receipts, avg. per estab. & employee, payroll as % sales, etc.
Table: Employee sales/payroll productivity
Table: Establishments, by legal form (corporations, partnerships, sole proprietors)
Table: Market share for largest 4, 8, 20, 50 firms
Table: Ratios, by single vs. multi-unit firms
Table: Ratios, by receipts size of firms & establishments
Table: No. of diet centers, by state & region, avg. receipts per estab. By state
Table: No. of diet centers, by state, ranked by sales and avg. receipts per establishment
Table: 2013 no. of estabs. payroll, estd. receipts, by state, ranked (County Business Patterns)
Table: 1982-2022 F commercial weight loss center revenues
Table: No. of U.S. weight control services (1991-2015)
Table: Number of commercial centers (2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016- top chains)
Table: Sales of the top chains (incl. Wt. Watchers, Jenny Craig, NutriSystem, Medifast): 2001-2016
COMPANY PROFILES: IN-DEPTH COMPANY HISTORY, CURRENT STATUS, HOW PROGRAMS WORK, COSTS, FRANCHISE SYSTEMS, 2009-2016 & HISTORICAL REVENUES, NEW PROGRAMS, STRATEGIES, ADDRESS/WEBSITE):
Weight Watchers International
Jenny Craig
NutriSystem
Medifast
Health Management Group (Diet Center, Physicians Wt. Loss)
Metabolic Research Centers
Slimgenics
ONLINE DIETING: WEIGHT LOSS WEBSITES & MOBILE APPS ($200)
Nature of diet websites and nutrition services, how they work, status report/trends for: Sparkpeople.com, WeightWatchers.com, Diets In Review, Calories Count: advertising costs and new challenges, importance of search engine optimization.
Market $ size: 2005-2022 F, major trends
Discussion: Is online dieting effective?
Profile of online dieter characteristics: Bestdietforme.com visitors by: sex, age, BMI, starting weight, medical conditions, budget, preferred program sites, interest in surgery and diet food home delivery, previous plans used, type food desired, readiness, exercise preferences, need for pysch support. – annual metrics as 2005-2012
List of the top diet websites, parent co. name, address
Diet Apps – how big a threat to commercial chains? Why the threat is overblown, shortcomings of brick & mortar companies/what they can do to compete better.
Descriptions of top weight loss apps
My Fitness Pal – Company Profile (funding, growth, buy-out by Under Armour)
VOLUME
THE DIET SOFT DRINKS & ARTIFICIAL SWEETENERS, DIET FOOD MARKETS ($350)
The Diet Soft Drinks Market
Status Report 2016, why the slump continues, diet soft drinks as % total soft drinks, mkt. nature and historical growth, forecasts, demographics of consumers, diet’s share of all carbonated soft drinks (Beverage Industry, Beverage Digest),
Total soft drink retail $ sales, diet share of gallons/retail sales: 1989-2016, 2017-2022 forecast
1989-2022 F diet soft drink $ sales
Table: Demographics of diet soft drink consumers, historical nature of the market.
The Artificial Sweeteners Market
Status Report of the mkt., developments rebellion-high fructose corn syrup, Stevia, Sucralose, Splenda, consumer trend to avoid artificial ingredients, 2010 data from Calorie Control Council regarding use by consumers
Sweeteners by end use (% for soft drinks vs. tabletop sweeteners mkt.)
Description of major types (Aspartame, Neotame, Saccharin, Sucralose, Stevia, Acesulfame)
Market size & growth, historical sales 1991-2016 performance, 2017, 2022 forecasts.
Low-cal Diet Entrees & Low-carb Foods Market p.24
Mkt. Status Report, definition of “diet” foods, discussion of dinner entrees, the major brands, Consumers shift to fresh foods away from frozen, actions by food industry to spur sales
Trend toward eating more high protein foods
Marketdata mkt. size estimates for 1994 to 2022 F
Outlook and sales estim. For 2013-2016 $ volume for Lean Cuisine, Smart Ones, Healthy Choice
Low-cal “diet” entrees mkt. size: Healthy Choice, Wt. Watchers, Lean Cuisine retail sales, brands outlooks in 2015-2016
The Low-carb Foods Market
Analysis of no. of people using Atkins as diet plan, why the trend has faded but is not dead/some resurgence in low glycemic foods, Paleo Diet, popular diet books
Low-cal user demographics: consumer use of low-cal foods/beverages: Calorie Control Council survey, most popular low-fat foods, top reasons people choose them
Company Profile: Atkins Nutritionals
THE MEAL KITS DELIVERY SERVICES MARKET ($250)
Definition and nature of the market, types of meal delivery services, why demand exists, growth spurred by venture capital, market trends & issues (independent contractors), importance of Milennials, customer demographics
Analysis of three market segments (dollar value 2015 & 2020 F, major competitors and revenues, key metrics,
recent developments: 1) Healthy/Fresh Foods/Meal Kits Delivery Market, 2) Diet Food Delivery Market, 3) Premium Meats & Desserts/Specialty Foods Mail Order Market.
Analysis of how meal delivery services work, evolution of the meal kits market, types of meal delivery services (software, grocery delivery, on-demand services, different generations of services: GrubHub, Doordash, Munchery, Sprig, Spoonrocket, etc.), operating models used.
RETAIL MEAL REPLACEMENTS & APPETITE SUPPRESSANTS MARKET ($350)
Definition/nature of meal replacements vs. over-the-counter (OTC) diet pills, ingredients being used today, new herbal products: coffee bean extract, HCG drops
History/nature of mkt.- cyclical shifts from mid-1980s
User demographics: no. and % of dieters using diet pills and meal replacements (Consumer Reports, Bestdietforme.com surveys: 2005-2012 data).
2016 Status Report of the market: estd. Channel sales (diet pills, meal replace.), findings of Nutrition Business Journal (NBJ) research, top diet pill brands sales: 2015, top meal replacements brands sales
Why growth outlook is strong for meal replacements, preferred by MDs, MLMs, commercial Chains, why OTC diet pills mkt. still struggles for legitimacy
Regulatory actions, FTC fines marketers (Acai berry, Lipozene, QuickTrim), waning of the Dr. OZ effect/warning on touting “miracle” products for weight loss, Hyroxycut’s fall
Marketdata discussion of traditional/nontraditional distribution channels
Mkt. size/growth: true size of the mkt. - why estimates differ widely
NBJ estimates of diet pill & meal replacements $ and % sales, by distribution channels, discussion of multilevel firms (Advocare, Shaklee, Herbalife, Quixtar, Nu-Skin, EAS, Atkins)
Marketdata estimates of growth for diet pills & meal replacements 2016-2022, demand factors.
Table:
Table: Marketdata estimates of OTC diet pills, meal replacements, combined sales - 1981-2016
Table: Discussion of 2015-2016 market performance, 2017 outlook, 2022 forecasts
Table: Top OTC diet pill brand sales in 2007, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015
Company profiles: Slim-Fast, Herbalife, Visalus Life Sciences , Isagenix, Advocare (revenues, strategies, product lines, marketing, Herbalife war with H. Ackman’s hedge fund, effect on other MLMs rapid rise and fall of Visalus)
MEDICALLY-SUPERVISED WEIGHT LOSS PROGRAMS (ALL MEDICAL SECTIONS: $695)
HOSPITAL & CLINIC CHAINS WEIGHT LOSS PROGRAMS ($250)
Types of plans offered (low-cost, moderate-cost plans, estd. no. of hospitals providing each, typical cost), Medicare new coverage
Physician-based diet programs: diet drugs/other methods used, consumer attitudes, limitations, estd. no. MDs with a weight loss program – independents vs. affiliated with chains, meds used, typical cost of MD programs
How Obamacare has provided a game-changing opportunity for MDs to add weight loss & counseling services via PAs, RDs, Nurses
Profiles of a hospital-based weight loss program: Johns Hopkins
Major Medical Chains: Lindora Clinics, Centers for Medical Weight Loss, Smart for Life Medi-Weightloss Clinics, Medical Weight Loss of Michigan, new chains: Nuviva, Thinique, Dr. G’s, let’s Lose, JumpstartMD, Ideal Protein, Profile Sanford (in-depth descriptions, plan costs, estimated revenues, no. of centers, franchising growth strategies).
Table: Avg. revenues per site, avg. plan cost to patient, avg. income statement, start-up Costs for top 8 medical weight loss chains/franchises/licensors.
BARIATRICIAN PROGRAMS ($100)
status report of profession, ASBP survey results (MDs by: age, income, size practice), how they’re trained, number practicing, certification by ASBP, use of diet drugs, treatment methods used, plan effectiveness/cost, business is up due to more surgeries, less surgeries – opinions of industry consultant.
THE WEIGHT LOSS (BARIATRIC) SURGERY MARKET ($250)
Discussion of gastric bypass & lapband procedures, why demand grew strongly to 2007, status report, 2016 estimated surgeries, 2017 & 2022 forecasts, costs per surgery by type payor, pros/cons, who qualifies, effect of Obamacare on coverage by 25 state exchanges
Surgery utilization and outcomes, mean cost per surgery
Major insurers’ coverage today, status report, Medicare position, role of liaison firms (The Wish Centers, Barix Clinics, Liv-Lite, Journey Lite - addresses), avg. cost of surgery.
Types of surgery: Roux-en-Y, lap banding, minigastric bypass, sleeve, consumer pros/cons
Table: No. of bariatric surgeries performed: 1992-2016
Table: $ value of the market: 1992-2022 F, outlook under Obamacare
Associations: ASBS, Obesity Action Coalition, increased lobbying efforts.
VLCD/LCD FASTING SUPPLEMENT PROGRAMS ($250)
Status report of low-calorie modified fasting programs in 2016, effect of bariatric surgeries, outlooks by mgmt. at HMR, strong demand from hospitals for tunkey programs characterizing the mkt. (price, programs, no. of sites, increased direct-to-customer sales)
Historical nature of market - development from 1970s-1990s, enrollments, drop-out/completion rates, problem on insurance coverage, market indicators, positive/negative trends/factors
@TABLE: MARKETDATA ESTIMATES OF VLCD ENROLLMENTS FOR 1995-2016 (NEW VS. REPEAT PATIENTS, FASTING VS. MAINTENANCE), $ VALUE OF MKT. FOR 1984-2022 F.
Company Profiles: Detailed descriptions of companies/plans, program revenues: Health Management Resources, Optifast (Nestle)
@TABLE: VLCD ENROLLMENTS, $ MKT. VALUE: MARKETDATA ESTIMATES: 2007-2014.
THE DIET DRUGS MARKET ($200)
Discussion of viewing obesity as a disease, major obesity medications used today, FDA position, role of MDs, commercial chains’ involvement with diet drugs, why it’s tougher than thought to develop anti-obesity drugs that are effective and with minimal side effects.
Status Report: Contrave, Qsymia & Belviq sales & outlooks, FDA rejections of: Acomplia, Taranabant, other Rx diet drugs
Other new obesity drugs in development: Saxenda, Beloranib, Mirabegron
Existing drugs used (Xenical, Phentermine) - descriptions
Table: prescriptions written and $ sales for: Meridia, Xenical, Phentermine, 12 other anti-obesity drugs (2003-2016), historical sales 1995-2000
Marketdata’s 2017 and 2022 outlooks for prescription diet drugs, effect of new drugs on mkt. Size, discussion of this market’s potential vs. drawbacks, overcoming MD and consumer Attitudes, side effects, effectiveness. Moderate weight loss not enough for most dieters.
THE DIET BOOKS & EXERCISE DVDS MARKET ($150)
Diet books – nature of the mkt., new 2015 & 2016 diet books, buyer demographics, what makes Bestsellers, book buyer demographics, recent titles by Dr. Phil, Al Roker, Jillian Michaels
Exercise DVDs mkt., summary, top names in the field, categories, top distributors, mkt. size
Marketdata estimates of combined diet books/exercise DVDs mkts. For 2016, 2017, Outlooks and rationale, popularity as DIY method.
Table: $ sales of diet books & exercise DVDs: 1989-2022 F
REFERENCE DIRECTORY OF WEIGHT LOSS INFORMATION SOURCES
Industry & government trade associations, journals, newsletters, magazines, consultants
