OLED Lighting Markets-2014
Six years ago, OLED lighting was first being proposed as a serious commercial product. Back then, 2014 was projected as the year when OLED lighting would first make its impact felt on general illumination. It didn’t happen. OLED lighting has been available for four years now, but with few signs of its moving beyond the luxury and specialist lighting sector. Also, the disappearance of GE from this space is another reason to treat OLED lighting with a little less respect than it once had.
So is it time to wave goodbye to OLED lighting as a large-scale business opportunity and label it “niche only?” The case can be made. But then again some large lighting suppliers remain bullish on this technology and appear to mean what they say.
Also, the fate of OLED lighting remains of importance well beyond the lighting sector. Because OLED consist of large panels, their success or failure has major implications for both the OLED materials sector and the OLED market itself. Even a modest success for OLED lighting could quickly make it the largest segment of the OLED business; which would completely change the market orientation of the OLED market from one that is currently oriented towards small mobile displays.
In this complex market environment, NanoMarkets believes that it is time for a detailed and honest assessment of both the current value proposition and future revenue timeframes for OLED lighting. This is the objective of this report, which includes eight-year (volume and value) projections of OLED lighting in all the major market sectors along with an assessment of how OLED lighting can effectively compete with LEDs and CFLs in those segments. In addition, this report analyzes the core strategies of leading players in the OLED lighting space, including their plans for building manufacturing capacity for OLED lighting.
So is it time to wave goodbye to OLED lighting as a large-scale business opportunity and label it “niche only?” The case can be made. But then again some large lighting suppliers remain bullish on this technology and appear to mean what they say.
Also, the fate of OLED lighting remains of importance well beyond the lighting sector. Because OLED consist of large panels, their success or failure has major implications for both the OLED materials sector and the OLED market itself. Even a modest success for OLED lighting could quickly make it the largest segment of the OLED business; which would completely change the market orientation of the OLED market from one that is currently oriented towards small mobile displays.
In this complex market environment, NanoMarkets believes that it is time for a detailed and honest assessment of both the current value proposition and future revenue timeframes for OLED lighting. This is the objective of this report, which includes eight-year (volume and value) projections of OLED lighting in all the major market sectors along with an assessment of how OLED lighting can effectively compete with LEDs and CFLs in those segments. In addition, this report analyzes the core strategies of leading players in the OLED lighting space, including their plans for building manufacturing capacity for OLED lighting.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Objectives and scope of this report
Methodology and information sources
Plan of report
Major changes from the previous report
Will OLED lighting ever be more than a luxury niche?
Who will shape the future of the OLED lighting Industry?
Geographies: Thoughts on national and regional OLED lighting markets
Opportunities for OLED lighting start-ups
Implications for OLED material companies
Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting markets
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
Global presence of the OLED lighting industry
Commercial application trends
Performance comparison: Key parameters
Favorable factors for the industry
Key Issues faced by the industry
Trends in OLED material deposition techniques
Ways to achieve cost reduction targets
Material and process improvement timeline
Current production facility of key OLED lighting players
Status of commercial availability of OLED lighting
Companies involved and major investments
OLED lighting industry: Possible market scenarios
CHAPTER TWO: MANUFACTURING, MATERIALS AND PERFORMANCE TRENDS SHAPING OLED LIGHTING COMMERCIALIZATION
Key performance factors impacting the success of OLED lighting
OLED light performance: current status and future targets
OLED light performance: What can be expected
Lifetime trends: in need of a substantial enhancement
Key efficacy issues and probable solutions
Bigger OLED panels: Key developments
Migration toward large panels: a necessary development
Large sized panels: Final verdict
Luminance trends: Key strategies for improvement
Color warmth: Not a major problem
OLED light performance: Impact on addressable market
Flexible (Curved) OLED
Flexible OLED panels: The reality
The question of flexible OLEDs in automobiles
Practical manufacturing issues requiring industry’s attention
Manufacturing factors shaping OLED lighting industry
Cost reduction Initiative: Choice of deposition process
Solution processing process: Key developments
Encapsulation: A major technical hurdle to fabrication
Choice of materials: Organic stack components
Choice of materials: Substrates
Choice of materials: Light extraction materials
OLED Production Yields: Key developments
OLED lighting manufacturing capacity estimation
Manufacturing capacity expansion Plans: Key players
European panel makers: Lagging behind Asian counterparts
Manufacturing approach: Current expectations
Manufacturing approach: What can be expected
Manufacturing cost trends
Cost structure: Comparison and key reduction drivers
OLED lighting commercialization catalyst
Key points made in this chapter
CHAPTER THREE: ADDRESSABLE MARKETS FOR OLED LIGHTING - ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL
Status of OLED lighting
Forecasting assumptions
Key consumer markets: A geographic analysis
Asia at the forefront of commercialization
European R&D efforts to enhance the prospects for OLED lighting
Share by country of OLED lighting consumption
OLED luminaire trends: Design, cost and other factors
Designer kits and samples: Market evolution
Trends in designer kits and samples
Eight-year forecast of designer kits and samples
Office lighting: A killer application?
Eight-year forecast of office and commercial lighting applications
Potential use of OLEDs in residential lighting
Eight-year forecast of residential lighting applications
Scope of OLEDs in outdoor (non-automotive) lighting
Encapsulation issues in outdoor lighting
Eight-year forecast of outdoor lighting applications
Scope of OLEDs in outdoor (non-automotive) lighting
Promise of OLED lighting for cars and other vehicles
Potential hurdles to OLED in external automobile lighting
Scope of OLED lighting in internal transportation lighting
Eight-year forecast of automotive lighting applications
Evaluation of OLED lighting in large-scale custom installations
Eight-year forecast of customized large-scale custom installations
Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting
Key points made in this chapter
LIST OF FORECAST EXHIBITS
Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting markets
Forecasting assumptions
Eight-year forecast of designer kits and samples
Eight-year forecast of office and commercial lighting applications
Eight-year forecast of residential lighting applications
Eight-year forecast of outdoor lighting applications
Share by country of OLED lighting consumption
Eight-year forecast of automotive lighting applications
Eight-year forecast of customized large-scale custom installations
Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting
Objectives and scope of this report
Methodology and information sources
Plan of report
Major changes from the previous report
Will OLED lighting ever be more than a luxury niche?
Who will shape the future of the OLED lighting Industry?
Geographies: Thoughts on national and regional OLED lighting markets
Opportunities for OLED lighting start-ups
Implications for OLED material companies
Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting markets
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
Global presence of the OLED lighting industry
Commercial application trends
Performance comparison: Key parameters
Favorable factors for the industry
Key Issues faced by the industry
Trends in OLED material deposition techniques
Ways to achieve cost reduction targets
Material and process improvement timeline
Current production facility of key OLED lighting players
Status of commercial availability of OLED lighting
Companies involved and major investments
OLED lighting industry: Possible market scenarios
CHAPTER TWO: MANUFACTURING, MATERIALS AND PERFORMANCE TRENDS SHAPING OLED LIGHTING COMMERCIALIZATION
Key performance factors impacting the success of OLED lighting
OLED light performance: current status and future targets
OLED light performance: What can be expected
Lifetime trends: in need of a substantial enhancement
Key efficacy issues and probable solutions
Bigger OLED panels: Key developments
Migration toward large panels: a necessary development
Large sized panels: Final verdict
Luminance trends: Key strategies for improvement
Color warmth: Not a major problem
OLED light performance: Impact on addressable market
Flexible (Curved) OLED
Flexible OLED panels: The reality
The question of flexible OLEDs in automobiles
Practical manufacturing issues requiring industry’s attention
Manufacturing factors shaping OLED lighting industry
Cost reduction Initiative: Choice of deposition process
Solution processing process: Key developments
Encapsulation: A major technical hurdle to fabrication
Choice of materials: Organic stack components
Choice of materials: Substrates
Choice of materials: Light extraction materials
OLED Production Yields: Key developments
OLED lighting manufacturing capacity estimation
Manufacturing capacity expansion Plans: Key players
European panel makers: Lagging behind Asian counterparts
Manufacturing approach: Current expectations
Manufacturing approach: What can be expected
Manufacturing cost trends
Cost structure: Comparison and key reduction drivers
OLED lighting commercialization catalyst
Key points made in this chapter
CHAPTER THREE: ADDRESSABLE MARKETS FOR OLED LIGHTING - ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL
Status of OLED lighting
Forecasting assumptions
Key consumer markets: A geographic analysis
Asia at the forefront of commercialization
European R&D efforts to enhance the prospects for OLED lighting
Share by country of OLED lighting consumption
OLED luminaire trends: Design, cost and other factors
Designer kits and samples: Market evolution
Trends in designer kits and samples
Eight-year forecast of designer kits and samples
Office lighting: A killer application?
Eight-year forecast of office and commercial lighting applications
Potential use of OLEDs in residential lighting
Eight-year forecast of residential lighting applications
Scope of OLEDs in outdoor (non-automotive) lighting
Encapsulation issues in outdoor lighting
Eight-year forecast of outdoor lighting applications
Scope of OLEDs in outdoor (non-automotive) lighting
Promise of OLED lighting for cars and other vehicles
Potential hurdles to OLED in external automobile lighting
Scope of OLED lighting in internal transportation lighting
Eight-year forecast of automotive lighting applications
Evaluation of OLED lighting in large-scale custom installations
Eight-year forecast of customized large-scale custom installations
Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting
Key points made in this chapter
LIST OF FORECAST EXHIBITS
Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting markets
Forecasting assumptions
Eight-year forecast of designer kits and samples
Eight-year forecast of office and commercial lighting applications
Eight-year forecast of residential lighting applications
Eight-year forecast of outdoor lighting applications
Share by country of OLED lighting consumption
Eight-year forecast of automotive lighting applications
Eight-year forecast of customized large-scale custom installations
Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting
