CIGS Photovoltaics Markets-2014 and Beyond
The industry shakeout in CIGS PV has been brutal. In 2010 there were more than 25 companies with plans for over 1 GW of capacity, but to date only Solar Frontier has achieved the goal. As the shakeout continued, there were even questions whether any new capacity would be added beyond the approximately 3 GW that was in place as the CIGS sector faced extreme price pressure from falling silicon based PV. Nonetheless, NanoMarkets believes that while multiple start-ups have either been liquidated or acquired, the remaining few large CIGS players are poised to add significant capacity.
This report will analyze the opportunities that are emerging for CIGS in this very new phase of the solar industry. The report takes a detailed look into the technical evolution of CIGs fabrication and encapsulation and show how this will impact CIGS market expansion and cost reduction. Much of the report is devoted to the opportunities for CIGS in building-integrated PV (BIPV market) and how CIGS flexible modules and price parity with silicon solar panels could considerably improve the revenues generated by CIGS technology in the near future.
This report also includes NanoMarkets’ eight-year forecasts of the market for CIGS PV. These forecasts are broken down by type of application—BIPV, flexible devices, etc.—and by the manufacturing technology used, including deposition technology and flexible vs. rigid manufacturing. This report is essential reading for firms that manufacture or develop CIGS PV and for everyone interested in future of the PV industry.
NanoMarkets has been following the CIGS space since its earliest days and this report provides the latest and most up to date information on the current state of the CIGS and guidance with regard to its future development and growth.
This report will analyze the opportunities that are emerging for CIGS in this very new phase of the solar industry. The report takes a detailed look into the technical evolution of CIGs fabrication and encapsulation and show how this will impact CIGS market expansion and cost reduction. Much of the report is devoted to the opportunities for CIGS in building-integrated PV (BIPV market) and how CIGS flexible modules and price parity with silicon solar panels could considerably improve the revenues generated by CIGS technology in the near future.
This report also includes NanoMarkets’ eight-year forecasts of the market for CIGS PV. These forecasts are broken down by type of application—BIPV, flexible devices, etc.—and by the manufacturing technology used, including deposition technology and flexible vs. rigid manufacturing. This report is essential reading for firms that manufacture or develop CIGS PV and for everyone interested in future of the PV industry.
NanoMarkets has been following the CIGS space since its earliest days and this report provides the latest and most up to date information on the current state of the CIGS and guidance with regard to its future development and growth.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
E.1 CIGS: Finally Poised to Be a Major Force in PV?
E.2 Opportunities for CIGS Firms
E.2.1 CIGS in the Conventional Panel Market
E.2.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGS
E.2.3 CIGS Opportunities in Portable Electronics
E.3 The Business Case for CIGS in a Technology Agnostic PV Environment
E.4 Will There Ever Be High-Volume Printed CIGS?
E.5 The CIGS Supply Structure
E.5.1 The Death Toll for Start-ups Continues. Who's left?
E.5.2 Transition from Startups to Asian Multinationals
E.6 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PV
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 Industry Consolidation and Shake Out. Are We Done Yet?
1.1.2 Enter Fresh Capital: TSMC and Hanergy.
1.1.3 Higher Efficiency and More Flexible Modules: the Path to Market Share for CIGS?
1.1.4 CIGS and BIPV: A Match Made for Rooftops?
1.1.5 Flexible CIGS' Achilles Heel: Lifetimes and Encapsulation
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
CHAPTER TWO: THE SUPPLY SIDE OF CIGS PV
2.1 Two Keys to Competing with Crystalline Silicon: Higher Yield and Lower Production Costs
2.2 The Indium issue: Will there Ever be Price Stability?
2.3 Other CIGS-Specific Materials
2.3.1 Electrodes: Changing Materials
2.3.2 CIGS' Special Encapsulation Needs
2.4 CIGS Manufacturing Processes
2.4.1 Conventional Vacuum Deposition
2.4.2 Electrodeposition
2.4.3 Printing: Will it Always be the 'Next Big Thing?'
2.4.4 Roll-to-Roll: Is It Really an Advantage?
2.5 The Changing Capital Landscape for CIGS Development
2.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter
CHAPTER THREE: CIGS MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
3.1 How does CIGS Gain Market Share in a PV Technology Agnostic World Dominated by Silicon?
3.1.1 How Can CIGS Sell Itself?
3.2 Flexible CIGS: A High-Growth Market Where Crystalline Silicon Cannot Compete
3.2.1 Flexible BIPV Opportunities
3.2.2 Other Flexible Application Opportunities
3.2.3 Long-Term Reliability of Flexible CIGS
3.3 Conventional Module Market Opportunities
3.4 Current Market and Capital Funding Situation
3.4.1 The Shift from Small Start-up Companies to Deep Pocketed Corporations
3.4.2 The Shift to China and Taiwan
3.4.3 Leaders and Strategies
3.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter
CHAPTER FOUR: EIGHT-YEAR FORECASTS FOR CIGS PV AND ITS MATERIALS
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Data Sources
4.1.2 Changes from Previous Reports
4.1.3 Scope of the Forecast
4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios
4.2 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Product Type
4.2.1 Conventional Panels
4.2.2 BIPV
4.2.3 Other Products
4.3 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Manufacturing Technology
4.3.1 Forecasts by Rigid vs. Flexible Manufacturing
4.3.2 Forecasts by CIGS Deposition Method
4.4 Summary of Forecasts
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT
E.1 CIGS: Finally Poised to Be a Major Force in PV?
E.2 Opportunities for CIGS Firms
E.2.1 CIGS in the Conventional Panel Market
E.2.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGS
E.2.3 CIGS Opportunities in Portable Electronics
E.3 The Business Case for CIGS in a Technology Agnostic PV Environment
E.4 Will There Ever Be High-Volume Printed CIGS?
E.5 The CIGS Supply Structure
E.5.1 The Death Toll for Start-ups Continues. Who's left?
E.5.2 Transition from Startups to Asian Multinationals
E.6 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PV
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 Industry Consolidation and Shake Out. Are We Done Yet?
1.1.2 Enter Fresh Capital: TSMC and Hanergy.
1.1.3 Higher Efficiency and More Flexible Modules: the Path to Market Share for CIGS?
1.1.4 CIGS and BIPV: A Match Made for Rooftops?
1.1.5 Flexible CIGS' Achilles Heel: Lifetimes and Encapsulation
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
CHAPTER TWO: THE SUPPLY SIDE OF CIGS PV
2.1 Two Keys to Competing with Crystalline Silicon: Higher Yield and Lower Production Costs
2.2 The Indium issue: Will there Ever be Price Stability?
2.3 Other CIGS-Specific Materials
2.3.1 Electrodes: Changing Materials
2.3.2 CIGS' Special Encapsulation Needs
2.4 CIGS Manufacturing Processes
2.4.1 Conventional Vacuum Deposition
2.4.2 Electrodeposition
2.4.3 Printing: Will it Always be the 'Next Big Thing?'
2.4.4 Roll-to-Roll: Is It Really an Advantage?
2.5 The Changing Capital Landscape for CIGS Development
2.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter
CHAPTER THREE: CIGS MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
3.1 How does CIGS Gain Market Share in a PV Technology Agnostic World Dominated by Silicon?
3.1.1 How Can CIGS Sell Itself?
3.2 Flexible CIGS: A High-Growth Market Where Crystalline Silicon Cannot Compete
3.2.1 Flexible BIPV Opportunities
3.2.2 Other Flexible Application Opportunities
3.2.3 Long-Term Reliability of Flexible CIGS
3.3 Conventional Module Market Opportunities
3.4 Current Market and Capital Funding Situation
3.4.1 The Shift from Small Start-up Companies to Deep Pocketed Corporations
3.4.2 The Shift to China and Taiwan
3.4.3 Leaders and Strategies
3.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter
CHAPTER FOUR: EIGHT-YEAR FORECASTS FOR CIGS PV AND ITS MATERIALS
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Data Sources
4.1.2 Changes from Previous Reports
4.1.3 Scope of the Forecast
4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios
4.2 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Product Type
4.2.1 Conventional Panels
4.2.2 BIPV
4.2.3 Other Products
4.3 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Manufacturing Technology
4.3.1 Forecasts by Rigid vs. Flexible Manufacturing
4.3.2 Forecasts by CIGS Deposition Method
4.4 Summary of Forecasts
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Exhibit E-1: Eight-Year Summary Forecast of CIGS PV
Exhibit 2-1: Electrodeposited CIGS Firms
Exhibit 2-2: Printed CIGS Firms
Exhibit 2-3: Result of 2010-2011 CIGS Funding
Exhibit 4-1: Eight-Year Forecast of Conventional CIGS PV Panels
Exhibit E-1: Eight-Year Summary Forecast of CIGS PV
Exhibit 2-1: Electrodeposited CIGS Firms
Exhibit 2-2: Printed CIGS Firms
Exhibit 2-3: Result of 2010-2011 CIGS Funding
Exhibit 4-1: Eight-Year Forecast of Conventional CIGS PV Panels
