Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Technologies Worldwide

February 2012 | 224 pages | ID: F4B760960C3EN
SBI

Abstracts

Internal combustion engines (ICEs) power our cars, trucks, big rigs, trains, generator sets, ships, and a host of other applications worldwide. Unfortunately, conventional ICEs boast low efficiency – most convert only 30% of fuel into usable work, and that is under optimal conditions. When accounting for idling and sub-optimal speeds, efficiency drops to 15 to 20%. That means, for every gallon of fuel placed into the engine, only 15 to 20% of the energy in that fuel is ever transferred into usable mechanical energy under typical conditions. The remaining 80 to 85% of energy contained in the fuel is wasted – wasted on friction, losses to heat, incomplete burning, and other inefficiencies characteristic of conventional ICEs.

Spurred by the current global focus on reducing carbon emissions, promoting sustainability, and enhancing energy use efficiency, global governments and industry leaders are driving strong interest, research, and investment in improving ICE efficiency. Companies as diverse as automaking giants Ford Motor Company and Toyota, to engine manufacturers in the U.S. and Europe, to a handful of tiny Silicon Valley and MIT associated startups, are pushing the efficiency envelope of ICEs.

Generally speaking, ICE efficiency measures come in two forms: (1) specialized components, add-ons, and auxiliary systems that are worked into the basic framework design of a conventional reciprocating internal combustion engine; and (2) highly modified or novel engine designs, which seek to re-engineer the internal combustion engine from the ground up, using alternative and novel designs and processes. Measures in the former group are being more widely pursued by the existing automotive and ICE production industries, where manufacturers are focusing on incremental design updates to conventional engines. These technologies include engine deactivation, cylinder deactivation, variable valve timing and lift, turbochargers and superchargers, direct fuel injection, smaller displacement motors, hybrid and partial hybrid systems, and homogeneous charge compression ignition. These measures apply to conventional designs with relatively little modification.

The second category of ICE energy efficiency measures provides a more radical break from convention, and is being forwarded primarily by various small and mid-sized start-ups and venture capital firms, alongside breakthrough-oriented government grants and other funding mechanisms. These endeavors significantly redesign internal combustion engines, and include redesigned combustion chambers, opposing piston designs, split cycle engine designs, opposed piston/opposed cyclinder engines, and updated rotary engine designs. Proponents and investors in these technologies are focusing on the larger industry’s current lack of interest in breakthrough-oriented ICE technologies, and generating a race toward commercialization for potential new technologies.

Now is therefore an exciting time in the ICE engineering and technology industry. Mainstream industry investment in design upgrades will drive typical operating engine efficiency up from 15-20% to upwards of 30%. Some of the potential breakthrough/redesigned systems claim efficiencies upwards of 40 and 50%, although commercialization of these technologies has not yet been achieved. Accordingly, many industry insiders and durable goods manufacturers are banking on sharp increases in demand for energy efficient ICEs in the transportation and distributed generation industries worldwide. Expectations are driven by a lack of foreseeable near term technological maturity and competition from fuel cells, electric motors and batteries for transportation, and other envisioned high efficiency transport and distributed generation solutions. Thus, while the gap between demand for higher efficiency engines and available high efficiency technologies continues to widen, the ICE industry is betting on itself to fill that gap more quickly than fuel cells or other technologically immature solutions.

Demand for energy efficient ICEs has strengthened notably with the ongoing economic recovery. Following stagnation during the 2008 and 2009, efficient ICE demand rebounded strongly in 2010 and 2011, increasing from a total global value of $80 billion in 2009 to $121 billion in 2011. From 2006 through 2011, the market showed an overall increase of $70 billion, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 19%. Through 2021, the efficient ICE market is expected to expand significantly, in spite of near term softening in emerging markets. Specifically, the global market is expected to reach $401 billion by 2021, equivalent to a 10-year CAGR of nearly 13%.

The market expansion projected for efficient ICEs maintains strong roots in the automotive and light truck industries. Other key markets include ground transport, distributed power generation, marine transport, and industrial/mechanical uses, including mineral extraction, petroleum extraction, wastewater treatment, and many other industries where mechanical energy is not typically provided by electric motors. A significant advantage of these multiple drivers is that demand for efficient ICE technologies is resilient in comparison to goods that serve more limited markets. While the automotive and transport markets are highly competitive, other non-transport markets provide diverse niche opportunities that may be available to well-positioned start-ups.

Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engine Global Markets contains comprehensive data on the worldwide market for efficient ICE technologies (engine deactivation, cylinder deactivation, variable valve timing and lift, turbochargers and superchargers, direct fuel injection, homogeneous charge compression ignition, reduced displacement engines, hybrids and partial hybrids, split cycle engines, and opposed piston/opposed cylinder engine designs. Market data are provided for historic (2006 to 2011 Q3) and forecast (2011 Q4 to 2021) market size data in terms of the dollar value of product shipments. The report identifies key trends affecting the marketplace, along with trends driving growth, and central challenges to further market development. The report also profiles leading startups and established manufacturers of fuel efficient ICEs that are most relevant to the fuel efficient ICE industry.

Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Scope

Global Fuel Usage and Efficiency

Figure 1-1: Realized Transportation Energy Efficiency Savings, Canada, 1990-2008 (Barrels of Oil Equivalent)

Internal Combustion Engines and Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engines

Figure 1-2: United States Car and Light Truck Fuel Efficiency Standards (CAFE), 1978-2010

Existing and Anticipated Applications

Fuel Efficient ICE Systems: System Descriptions and Requirements

Table 1-1: Overview of EICE Technologies

Environmental and Social Benefits of Fuel Efficient ICEs

Figure 1-3: Percent of Fuel Consumed for EICEs versus Conventional ICEs, Per Unit Output

EICE Market Assessment

Engine Deactivation

Cylinder Deactivation

Variable Valve Timing and Lift

Turbochargers and Superchargers

Direct Fuel Injection

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition

Reduced Displacement Engine

Hybrid and Partial Hybrid

Split Cycle Engines

Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Engines

Total EICE Market

Figure 1-4: Global Market for EICE Technologies (Billion US Dollars)

Industry Trends

Conventional ICE Cost Ranges

Figure 1-5: Engine Cost Ranges ($/Horsepower)

EICE Components Cost Ranges

Table 1-2: Additive Incremental Cost Data for EICE Systems, Based on Consumer Class Vehicles in the U.S. (Percent of Total Conventional ICE Cost)

Air Emissions Reduction

Table 1-3: Incremental CO2 Emission Reduction of Specialized Components and Auxiliary Systems Implementation

Figure 1-6: Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards for the U.S., European Union, Japan, and China, Including Enacted and Proposed Standards.

Balance of Power (Performance) and Efficiency

Research and Development

EICE Supply Chain

Figure 1-7: EICE Technologies Supply Chain

EICE Product Promotion

Job Creation

Table 1-4: Annual Worker Productivity Rates for EICE Technologies (Units Per Full Time Equivalent Per Year)

Figure 1-8: Annualized Jobs Creation for All EICE Technologies, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)

Competitive Profiles

EICE End Users

Table 1-5: EICE End User Categories

Figure 1-9: Per Capita Disposable Income, 2000 to 2010 (US Dollars)

Summary

Figure 1-10: Global Market for EICE Technologies (Billion US Dollars)

CHAPTER 2 OVERVIEW OF FUEL EFFICIENT INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES

Scope

Global Liquid Fuels Usage and Future Trends

Fuel Efficiency

Figure 2-1: Realized Transportation Energy Efficiency Savings, Canada, 1990-2008 (BOE)

Internal Combustion Engines: History and Applicability

Fuel Efficient Internal Combustion Engines

Figure 2-2: United States Car and Light Truck Fuel Efficiency Standards (CAFE), 1978-2010

Existing and Anticipated Applications

Figure 2-3: Annual Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Production Rates, 2000 to 2010

Transportation and Automotive Industry

Power Generation

Construction Equipment Industry

Industrial Applications

Energy Resource Extraction

Materials Extraction and Processing

Industrial Process

Other

Fuel Efficient ICE Systems: System Descriptions and Requirements

Table 2-1: Overview of EICE Technologies

Cylinder Deactivation

Variable Valve Timing and Lift

Turbochargers and Superchargers

Direct Fuel Injection

Smaller Displacement Engines

Hybrid and Partial Hybrid Systems

Novel System Designs

Split Cycle Engines

Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Engines

High Efficiency Hybrid Cycle

Non-Engine Efficiency Technologies

Conventional Versus Efficient Internal Combustion Engines: Where to Draw the Line?

Environmental and Social Benefits of Fuel Efficient ICEs

Fuel Use Reduction and Cost Savings

Figure 2-4: Percent of Fuel Consumed for EICEs versus Conventional ICEs, Per Unit Output

Energy Security

Greenhouse Gas Benefits

Comparison to Other Competing Technologies

Summary

CHAPTER 3 FUEL EFFICIENT ENGINES - MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH

Scope

Market Assessment Methodology

Market Projections for ICE and EICE Technologies

Disclosure Regarding Data Uncertainty

Additional Market Valuation Factors

Market Origins, History, and Present Trends

The ICE Market Since 1900

Emergence and Development of the EICE Market

Public Perceptions

Recent Market Strength

Growth in EICE Demand in Other Sectors

Factors Affecting Market Size and Growth

GHG emissions reduction requirements, targets, and strategies

Fuel Efficiency

Table 3-1: Fuel Efficiency Measures

Table 3-2: Regional and National Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards Summary for On-Road Vehicles

Role of alternative Fuels

Role of competing technologies

Research and development

Trends in global industrialization and development

EICE Technologies Markets

Figure 3-1: Global ICE Sales, All Industries, 2006-2011e (Millions of Units)

Review of the Global ICE Market

Figure 3-2: Global ICE Sales, Non-Vehicle End Uses, 2006-2011e (Thousands of Units)

Global Market for Specialized Components and Auxiliary Systems

Engine Deactivation

Table 3-3: Global Engine Deactivation Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-3: Engine Deactivation Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-4: Engine Deactivation Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-5: Engine Deactivation Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-6: Engine Deactivation Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Cylinder Deactivation

Table 3-4: Global Cylinder Deactivation Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-7: Cylinder Deactivation Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-8: Cylinder Deactivation Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-9: Cylinder Deactivation Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-10: Cylinder Deactivation Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Variable Valve Timing and Lift

Table 3-5: Global Variable Valve Timing and Lift Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-11: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-12: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-13: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-14: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Turbochargers and Superchargers

Table 3-6: Global Turbochargers Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-15: Turbocharger Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-16: Turbocharger Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-17: Turbocharger Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-18: Turbocharger Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Direct Fuel Injection

Table 3-7: Global Direct injection Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-19: Direct Injection Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-20: Direct Injection Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-21: Direct Injection Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-22: Direct Injection Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition

Table 3-8: Global HCCI Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-23: HCCI Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-24: HCCI Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-25: HCCI Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-26: HCCI Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Reduced Displacement Engine

Table 3-9: Global Reduced Displacement Engine Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-27: Reduced Displacement Engine Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-28: Reduced Displacement Engine Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-29: Reduced Displacement Engine Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-30: Reduced Displacement Engine Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Hybrid and Partial Hybrid

Table 3-10: Global Hybrid Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-31: Hybrid Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-32: Hybrid Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-33: Hybrid Regional Markets, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-34: Hybrid Key National Markets, 2006, 2011e, and 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Global Market for Novel System Designs

Split Cycle Engines

Table 3-11: Global Split Cycle Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-35: Split Cycle Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-36: Split Cycle Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-37: Split Cycle Regional Market, 2006-2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Engines

Table 3-12: Global Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Market, Historic and Projected, 2006 to 2021e (Millions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-38: Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Global Market, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-39: Split Cycle Global Market, Non-Vehicle Breakdown, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Figure 3-40: Regional Markets for Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Technologies, 2006 to 2021e (Billions of US Dollars)

Summary

Figure 3-41: Global Market for EICE Technologies (Billion US Dollars)

CHAPTER 4 FUEL EFFICIENT INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES - MARKET AND PRODUCT TRENDS

Scope

EICE Product Pricing: Specialized Components and Auxiliary Systems

Conventional ICE Cost Range

Figure 4-1: Engine Cost Ranges ($/Horsepower)

Figure 4-2: Engine Cost Ranges (Detail for Light Duty and Transport Industries; $/Horsepower)

EICE Cost: Specialized Components and Auxiliary Systems

Table 4-1: Additive Incremental Cost Data for EICE Systems, Based on Consumer Class Vehicles in the U.S. (Percent of Total Conventional ICE Cost)

Engine Deactivation

Figure 4-3: Engine Deactivation Cost for a 215 HP Light Duty/Consumer Truck Engine (2011 Dollars)

Cylinder Deactivation

Figure 4-4: Cylinder Deactivation Cost for a 215 HP Light Duty/Consumer Truck Engine

Variable Valve Timing and Lift

Figure 4-5: Variable Valve Timing and Lift Cost for a 215 HP Light Duty/Consumer Truck Engine

Turbocharger or Supercharger

Figure 4-6: Turbocharger or Supercharger Cost for a 215 HP Light Duty/Consumer Truck Engine

Direct Fuel Injection

Figure 4-7: Direct Fuel Injection Cost for a 215 HP Light Duty/Consumer Truck Engine

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition

Figure 4-8: Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition Cost for a 215 HP Light Duty/Consumer Truck Engine

Reduced Displacement Engine

Figure 4 - 9: Smaller Displacement Motor Cost for a Base 215 HP Light Duty/Consumer Truck Engine, with Application of 10% Capacity Reduction

Hybrid or Partial Hybrid

Figure 4-10: Hybrid or Partial Hybrid Cost Range for a 215 HP Light Duty/Consumer Truck Engine

EICE Product Trends and Pricing: Novel System Designs

Split Cycle Engines

Opposed Piston/Opposed Cylinder Engines

High Efficiency Hybrid Cycle

General Cost Factors

Industry Trends

Air Emissions Reduction: Greenhouse Gases

Figure 4-11: U.S. Domestic Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Fossil Fuel Combustion for Transportation and Total Annual Domestic Emissions

Table 4-2: Incremental CO2 Emission Reduction of Specialized Components and Auxiliary Systems Implementation

Figure 4-12: Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards for the U.S., European Union, Japan, and China, Including Enacted and Proposed Standards.

Air Emissions Reduction: Other Harmful Air Pollutants

Figure 4-13: Historic U.S. and European Light Duty Vehicle Emissions, Hydrocarbons and Nitrogen Oxides (grams/mile)

Figure 4-14: Historic U.S. and European Light Duty Vehicle Emissions, Carbon Monoxide (grams/mile)

Figure 4-15: Historic Trends in Emissions from New Diesel Engines Based on Applicable Standards in the U.S. (1970-2010).

Balance of Power (Performance) and Efficiency

Trends in Research and Development

Summary

CHAPTER 5 FUEL EFFICIENT INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES - SUPPLY CHAIN AND PROMOTION

Scope

EICE Technologies Supply Chain

Overview of the EICE Technologies Supply Chain

Figure 5-1: EICE Technologies Supply Chain

Supply Chain Variants and Optimization

Figure 5-2: EICE Technologies: Supply Chain Variants

Supply Chain Greening

Table 5-1: Green Supply Chain Components

EICE Product Promotion

Promotion to Durable Goods Producers

Promotion to the End User

Promotion to Government and Regulators

Summary

CHAPTER 6 FUEL EFFICIENT INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES - JOB CREATION ESTIMATES

Scope

Modes of Job Creation and Methodology

Figure 6-1: U.S. Automotive Sector Productivity, Autos Produced per Worker Full Time Equivalent, 2000 to 2010e

Table 6-1: Annual Worker Productivity Rates for EICE Technologies (Units Per Full Time Equivalent Per Year)

Job Creation Projections

Variable Valve Timing and Lift

Figure 6-2: Annualized Jobs Creation and Loss Due To Variable Valve Timing and Lift Technology Production, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)

Turbochargers

Figure 6-3: Annualized Jobs Creation and Loss Due To Turbocharger Technology Production, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)

Direct Fuel Injection

Figure 6-4: Annualized Jobs Creation and Loss Due To Direct Injection Technology Production, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition

Figure 6-5: Annualized Jobs Creation and Loss Due To HCCI Technology Production, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)

Reduced Displacement Engines

Figure 6-6: Annualized Jobs Creation and Loss Due To HCCI Technology Production, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)

Hybrid Systems

Figure 6-7: Annualized Jobs Creation and Loss Due To Hybrid Systems Technology Production, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)

Summary

Figure 6-8: Annualized Jobs Creation for All EICE Technologies, 2007 to 2021e (Full Time Equivalent Jobs Created or Lost Per Year)

References

CHAPTER 7 COMPETITIVE PROFILES

Scope

Methodology and Selection of Profiles

Cargine

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Chrysler

Overview

Performance

Figure 7-1: Chrysler Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Cummins

Overview

Performance

Figure 7-2: Cummins Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Daimler

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Figure 7-3: Daimler Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

Company News and Developments

Delphi Automotive Systems, LLC

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Detroit Diesel Corporation

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Ecomotors

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Ford Motor Company

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Figure 7-4: Ford Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

Company News and Developments

General Electric

Overview

Performance

Figure 7-5: General Electric Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

Product Portfolio

General Motors

Overview

Performance

Figure 7-6: General Motors Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Honeywell

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Figure 7-7: Honeywell Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

LiquidPiston

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Navistar

Overview

Performance

Figure 7-8: Navistar Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Pinnacle

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Revtec

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Transonic Combustion

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Volvo

Overview

Performance

Figure 7-9: Volvo Annual Revenues, 2007-2011e

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

Zajac Motors

Overview

Performance

Product Portfolio

Company News and Developments

CHAPTER 8 FUEL EFFICIENT INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE END USERS

Scope

Fuel Efficient ICE End Users

Table 8-1: EICE End User Categories

End Users for Consumer Durables

Figure 8-1: Per Capita Disposable Income, 2000 to 2010 (US Dollars)

Figure 8-2: U.S. Personal Consumption: Per Capita Spending on Motor Vehicles and Parts, 2000 to 2011e (2005 US Dollars)

Figure 8-3: Per Capita Disposable Income, 2000 to 2009 (US Dollars; China Urban Population Only)

End Users for the Transport Industry

End Users for Industrial Technologies

Figure 8-4: Industrial Productivity Index, Normalized to 2005 Industrial Productivity (2005 to 2011e)

End Users for Agriculture

Figure 8-5: Commodity Food Price Index, 2001 to 2011

Summary