Competitive Analysis of Conventional and Renewable Energy Sources: Opportunities and Cost Analysis, June 2010

Date: June 10, 2010
Pages: 190
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Competitive Analysis of Conventional and Renewable Energy Sources: Opportunities and Cost Analysis, June 2010
Background:

According to this report “Competitive Analysis of Conventional and Renewable Energy Sources: Opportunities and Cost Analysis” - the global energy production capacity is expected to reach 5,696 GW by 2015. Despite the recent economic slowdown, energy demand is on rise in Asian and other developing economies due to high industrial growth and more usage of industrial good.

Although, cost of generating electricity, easily availability of abundant raw materials and capacity factors have always encouraged the growth of conventional energy but due to environmental concerns, accelerating fuel prices and emission regulations like Kyoto protocol have accelerated the growth of renewable energy across the globe.

As far as the cost of generating electricity is concerned, natural gas and coal costs less and in near future it is expected that the cost of generating electricity from renewable energy sources such as solar thermal and solar Photovoltaic would also decrease. In such a situation renewable energy will compete with conventional energy in terms of cost.

Significant changes are taking place in the cost of generating electricity from the coal, Natural gas, Nuclear, Wind, Solar PV, and Solar Thermal. This unique report from Lucintel will provide you with valuable information, insights for trend and forecasts of different energy sources and levelised cost of energy of different energy sources. This report will save you hundreds of hours of your own personal research time and will significantly benefit you in expanding your business. In today’s stringent economy, you need every advantage that you can find.

Features of This Report:

To make business, investment, or strategic decisions, you need timely and adequate information. This market report fulfills this core need and is an indispensable reference guide for the project developers, Utilities companies, product manufacturer, investors, executives, distributors and many more. Some of the features of this market report are:
  • Trend and forecast of coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar PV, solar thermal in terms of capacity install.
  • Major growth drivers and challenges for each of energy sources.
  • Trend and forecast of Levelised cost of energy (LCOE) for each of the energy sources in terms of $/MWh
  • Porters five forces of different nodes of value chain of wind, solar PV and solar thermal
  • Growth opportunities of coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar PV and solar thermal.
  • Cost drivers for each of the energy sources.
  • Cost breakdown for each of the energy sources
  • Value chain analysis of wind, solar PV, solar Thermal etc.
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. ENERGY SECTOR OVERVIEW

2.1 Renewable Sources
  2.1.1 Wind Energy
    2.1.1.1 Value Chain Analysis
    2.1.1.2 Porter’s Five Forces for Different Nodes of Wind Value Chain
    2.1.1.3 Trends and Forecasts
    2.1.1.4 Drivers and Challenges
    2.1.1.5 Recent Developments
    2.1.1.6 Top 5 Wind Energy Countries
    2.1.1.7 Growth Matrix of Top Wind Economies
  2.1.2 Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Energy
    2.1.2.1 Value Chain Analysis
    2.1.2.2 Porter’s Five Forces for Different Nodes of Solar PV Value Chain
    2.1.2.3 Trend and Forecast
    2.1.2.4 Drivers and Challenges
    2.1.2.5 Recent Developments
    2.1.2.6 Top 5 Solar Photovoltaic Countries
    2.1.2.7 Growth Matrix of Top Solar PV Economies
  2.1.3 Solar Thermal
    2.1.3.1 Value Chain Analysis
    2.1.3.2 Porters Five Forces for Different Nodes of Solar Thermal Value Chain
    2.1.3.3 Trend and Forecast
    2.1.3.4 Drivers and Challenges
    2.1.3.5 Recent Developments
    2.1.3.6 Top 2 Solar Thermal Countries
    2.1.3.7 Growth Matrix of Top Solar Thermal Economies
  2.1.4 Other Sources
2.2 Non-Renewable Sources
  2.2.1 Coal
    2.2.1.1 Value Chain Analysis
    2.2.1.2 Trend and Forecast
    2.2.1.3 Drivers and Challenges
    2.2.1.4 Recent Developments
    2.2.1.5 Top 5 Coal Energy Countries (Installed capacity)
    2.2.1.6 Growth Matrix of Top 5 Coal Energy Economies
  2.2.2 Natural Gas
    2.2.2.1 Value Chain Analysis
    2.2.2.2 Trend and Forecast
    2.2.2.3 Drivers and Challenges
    2.2.2.4 Recent Developments
    2.2.2.5 Top 5 Natural Gas Countries
    2.2.2.6 Growth Matrix of Top 5 Natural Gas Economies
  2.2.3 Nuclear
    2.2.3.1 Value Chain Analysis
    2.2.3.2 Trend and Forecast
    2.2.3.3 Drivers and Challenges
    2.2.3.4 Recent Developments
    2.2.3.5 Top 5 Nuclear Energy Countries
    2.2.3.6 Growth Matrix of Top 5 Nuclear Economies
  2.2.4 Others
2.3 Demand & Supply Overview for Key Economies

3. LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY (LCOE) TREND & FORECAST

3.1. What is Levelised Cost of Energy
  3.1.1. Assumptions of Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) Estimations
3.2. Wind Energy
  3.2.1. Cost Breakdown & Analysis
    3.2.1.1. Capital Cost
      3.2.1.1.1 Cost Drivers
    3.2.1.2. Operational & Maintenance Cost
      3.2.1.2.1. Cost Drivers
3.3. Solar Photovoltaic
  3.3.1. Cost Breakdown & Analysis
    3.3.1.1. Capital Cost
      3.3.1.1.1. Cost Drivers
    3.3.1.2. Operational & Maintenance Cost
      3.3.1.2.1. Cost Drivers
3.4. Solar Thermal
  3.4.1. Cost Breakdown & Analysis
    3.4.1.1 Capital Cost
      3.4.1.1.1. Cost Drivers
    3.4.1.2. Operational & Maintenance Cost
      3.4.1.2.1. Cost Drivers
3.5. Coal
  3.5.1. Cost Breakdown & Analysis
    3.5.1.1. Capital Cost
      3.5.1.1.1. Cost Drivers
    3.5.1.2. Operational & Maintenance Cost
      3.5.1.2.1. Cost Drivers
    3.5.1.3. Raw Material Cost
3.6 Natural Gas
  3.6.1. Cost Breakdown & Analysis
    3.6.1.1. Capital Cost
      3.6.1.1.1. Cost Drivers
    3.6.1.2. Operational & Maintenance Cost
      3.6.1.2.1. Cost Drivers
    3.6.1.3. Raw Material Cost
3.7. Nuclear Energy
  3.7.1. Cost Breakdown & Analysis
    3.7.1.1. Capital Cost
      3.7.1.1.1. Cost Drivers
    3.7.1.2 Operational & Maintenance Cost
      3.7.1.2.1. Cost Drivers
    3.7.1.3 Raw Material Cost

4. COST COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

4.1. Cost Competitiveness Analysis
  4.1.1. Analysis of Key Ratios
  4.1.2. Levelised Cost of Energy -Trend and Forecast
  4.1.3. Conclusion

LIST OF FIGURES

Chapter 2: Overview of Energy Sector
Fig.2.1: Global energy (Cumulative Capacity) by type of source: 2009 (MW)
Fig.2.2: Global renewable energy (cumulative capacity) by type of sources: 2009 (MW)
Fig.2.3: Global energy (Cumulative Capacity) by type of sources: 2015 (MW)
Fig.2.4: Global renewable energy (cumulative capacity) by type of sources: 2015 (MW)
Fig 2.5: Energy mix of top 10 countries in 2004(Capacity Installed MW)
Fig 2.6: Energy mix in top 10 countries in 2009 (Capacity Installed MW)
Fig 2.7: Installed capacity of renewable energy in top 10 countries in 2009
Fig 2.8: Value chain analysis of wind energy
Fig 2.9: Porter’s five forces for different nodes of wind value chain
Fig 2.10: Global trend of wind energy (2004-2009)
Fig 2.11: Global forecast of wind energy (2010-2015)
Fig 2.12: Impact analysis of drivers - wind energy
Fig 2.13: Impact analysis of challenges - wind energy
Fig 2.14: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in USA
Fig 2.15: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in Germany
Fig 2.16: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in China
Fig 2.17: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in India
Fig 2.18: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in Spain
Fig.2.19: Growth matrix of wind energy
Fig.2.20: Growth matrix of wind energy with expected market growth rate
Fig 2.21: Value chain analysis of solar PV
Fig 2.22: Different companies in the solar PV supply chain
Fig 2.23: Porter’s five forces for different nodes of solar PV supply chain
Fig 2.24: Global trend of solar PV (2004-2009)
Fig 2.24: Global trend of solar PV (2004-2009)
Fig 2.26: Impact analysis of drivers - solar PV
Fig 2.27: Impact analysis of challenges - solar PV
Fig 2.28: Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009) in Germany
Fig 2.29: Installed capacity of trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009) in Spain
Fig 2.30: Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009) in USA
Fig 2.31: Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009) in Japan
Fig 2.32: Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009) in Italy
Fig 2.33: Growth matrix of solar PV energy
Fig 2.34: Growth matrix of solar PV energy with expected market growth rate
Fig 2.35: Value chain analysis of solar thermal
Fig 2.36: Porter’s five forces for different nodes of solar thermal energy
Fig 2.37: Global trend of solar thermal (2004-2009)
Fig 2.38: Global forecast of solar thermal (2010-2015)
Fig 2.39: Impact analysis of drivers - solar thermal
Fig 2.40: Impact analysis challenges - solar thermal energy
Fig 2.41: Installed capacity trend of solar thermal (2004-2009) in USA
Fig 2.42: Installed capacity trend of solar thermal (2004-2009) in Spain
Fig 2.43: Growth matrix of solar thermal energy
Fig 2.44: Growth matrix of solar thermal energy with expected market growth rate
Fig 2.45: Installed capacity of non renewable energy in top 10 countries in 2009
Fig 2.46: Value chain of coal energy
Fig 2.47: Global trend of coal energy (2004-2009)
Fig 2.48: Global forecast of coal energy (2004-2009)
Fig 2.49: Impact analysis of drivers - coal energy
Fig 2.50: Impact analysis of challenges -coal energy
Fig 2.51: Growth matrix of coal energy
Fig.2.52: Growth matrix of coal energy with expected market growth rate
Fig 2.53: Value chain of natural gas energy
Fig 2.54: Global trends of natural gas (2004-2009)
Fig 2.55: Global forecast of natural gas (2010-2015)
Fig 2.56: Impact analysis of drivers -natural gas
Fig 2.57: Impact analysis of challenges - natural gas
Fig 2.58: Growth matrix of natural gas energy
Fig 2.59: Growth matrix of natural gas energy with expected market growth rate
Fig 2.60: Value chain of nuclear energy
Fig 2.61: Global trend of nuclear energy (2004-2009)
Fig 2.62: Global forecast of nuclear energy (2010-2015)
Fig 2.63: Capacity factor trend of nuclear energy (1995-2009)
Fig 2.64: Impact analysis of drivers - nuclear energy
Fig 2.65: Impact analysis of challenges - nuclear energy
Fig 2.66: Growth matrix of nuclear energy
Fig 2.67: Growth matrix of nuclear energy with expected market growth rate
Fig 2.68: Demand and supply analysis of top 10 countries in 2009

Chapter 3: Levelised Cost of Energy Trend & Forecast
Fig .3.1: Cost breakdown of wind energy in 2009
Fig 3.2: Capital cost breakdown of wind energy in 2009
Fig 3.3: Capital cost trend ($/MWh) (1995-2009) of wind energy
Fig 3.4: Wind turbine cost, steel and glass fiber price trend (1995-2009)
Fig 3.5: Copper price trend ($/MT)
Fig 3.6: Cost breakdown of operational & maintenance cost of wind energy in 2009
Fig 3.7: Operational & maintenance cost ($/MWh) trend of wind energy (1995-2009)
Fig 3.8 Cost breakdown of solar photovoltaic in 2009
Fig 3.9 Capital cost breakdown of solar photovoltaic in 2009
Fig 3.10: Capital cost ($/MWh) trend of solar photovoltaic (1995-2009)
Fig 3.11: Solar module price Trend ($/W)
Fig 3.12: Operational & maintenance cost ($/MWh) trend of solar photovoltaic (1995-2009)
Fig 3.13: Cost breakdown of solar thermal in 2009
Fig 3.14: Capital cost breakdown of solar thermal in 2009
Fig 3.15; Capital cost trend of solar thermal ($/MWh) (1995-2009)
Fig 3.16: Operational & maintenance cost breakdown of solar thermal in 2009
Fig 3.17: Operational & maintenance cost trend of solar thermal ($/MWh) 1995-2009)
Fig 3.18: Cost breakdown of coal in 2009
Fig 3.19: Capital cost breakdown of coal in 2009
Fig 3.20: Capital cost trend of coal energy ($/MWh) (1995-2009)
Fig 3.21: Operational & maintenance cost breakdown of coal energy in 2009
Fig 3.22: Operational & maintenance cost trend of coal ($/MWh) (1995-2009)
Fig 3.23: Fuel cost trend of coal energy ($/MWh) (1995-2009)
Fig 3.24: Cost breakdown of natural gas in 2009
Fig 3.25: Capital cost trend of natural gas ($/MWh) (1995-2015)
Fig 3.26: Operational & maintenance breakdown of natural gas in 2009
Fig 3.27: Operational & maintenance cost trend of natural gas ($/MWh) (1995-2009)
Fig 3.28: Fuel cost trend of natural gas ($/MWh) (1995-2009)
Fig 3.29: Natural gas price trend ($/MT)
Fig 3.30: Cost breakdown of nuclear in 2009
Fig 3.31: Capital cost trend of nuclear energy ($/MWh) 1995-2009)
Fig 3.32: Operational & maintenance cost trend of nuclear energy ($/MWh) (1995-2009)
Fig 3.33: Fuel cost trend of nuclear energy ($/MWh) (1995-2009)

Chapter 4: Cost Competitive Analysis
Fig 4.1: Cost breakdown of different energy sources in 2009
Fig 4.2.Capital cost comparison of different energy sources in 2009
Fig 4.3.Capital cost comparison of different energy sources in 2009 in $/MW
Fig 4.4: Annual Operational and maintenance cost comparison of different energy sources in 2009
Fig 4.5: Annual Operational and maintenance cost comparison of different energy sources in 2009 in $/MW
Fig 4.6: Raw material cost comparison of different energy sources
Fig 4.7: Raw material cost comparison of different energy sources in $ /MW
Fig 4.8: Levelised cost of energy trend (1995-2009) of different energy sources
Fig 4.9: LCOE without CAPEX trend (1995-2009) of different energy sources
Fig 4.10: Capital cost trend (1995-2009) of different energy sources
Fig 4.11: Operational and maintenance cost trend (1995-2009) of different energy sources
Fig 4.12: Fuel cost trend (1995-2009) of different energy sources ($/MWh)
Fig 4.13: Forecast of levelised cost of energy of different energy sources (2010-2015) ($/MWh)

LIST OF TABLES

1. Executive Summary
Table 1.1: Growth in installed capacity of different energy sources (2004-2009)
Table 1.2: Change in levelised cost of energy of different energy sources (CAGR) (1995-2009)
Table 1.3: Change in levelised cost of energy of different energy sources (CAGR) (2010-2015)

2. Overview of Energy Sector
Table 2.1: Global breakdown of different energy sources (MW) (2004-2009)
Table 2.2: Global trend of wind energy (2004-2009)
Table 2.3: Global forecast of wind energy (2010-2015)
Table 2.4: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in USA
Table 2.5: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in Germany
Table 2.6: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in China
Table 2.7: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in India
Table 2.8: Installed capacity trend of wind energy (2004-2009) (MW) in Spain
Table 2.9: Major suppliers of polysilicon
Table 2.10: New players in polysilicon
Table 2.11: Market players for ingot/wafer
Table 2.12: Market players for solar PV cell
Table 2.13: Market players for solar module
Table 2.14: Global trend of solar PV (2004-2009)
Table 2.15: Global forecast of solar PV (20010-2015)
Table 2.16: Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009) in Germany
Table 2.17 Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009)in Spain
Table 2.18: Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic(2004-2009)in USA
Table 2.19: Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009)in Japan
Table 2.20: Installed capacity trend of solar photovoltaic (2004-2009)in Italy
Table 2.21: Companies making concentrated solar power components
Table 2.22.Concentrated solar power developer companies
Table 2.23: Global trend of solar thermal (2004-2009)
Table 2.24: Global forecast of solar thermal (2010-2015)
Table 2.25: Installed capacity installed trend of solar thermal (2004-2009) in USA
Table 2.26: Installed capacity installed trend of solar thermal (2004-2009) in Spain
Table 2.27: Global trend of coal energy (2004-2009)
Table 2.28: Global forecast of coal energy (2010-2015)
Table 2.29: Cumulative production capacity of top 5 coal energy countries
Table 2.30: Global trend of natural gas (2004-2009) (MW)
Table 2.31: Global forecast of natural gas (2010-2015) (MW)
Table 2.32: Global trend of nuclear (2004-2009) (MW)
Table 2.33: Global forecast of nuclear (2010-2015) (MW)

3. Levelised Cost of Energy Trend & Forecast
Table 3.1: Economic assumptions for calculating levelised cost of energy
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