Impact of Oil Price Crash on Different Industries and Overall Indian Economy
The steep fall in crude prices has caught the global economy by surprise, not to miss the existing & emerging potential oil exporting nations. On one hand the downward trend is highly detrimental to the nations with major revenue chunk linked to oil exports and those who have invested heavily on the alternate energy sources such as renewable, shale, etc., on the other hand the major net oil importers such as the Asian nations led by India are looking overjoyed on account of anticipated national fiscal savings on buying of cheaper crude oil and drop in fuel prices at consumer end.
On the surface, one may claim that falling crude oil prices are oil importing nation's moment of delight and oil exporting nation's worst nightmare. But is it really all good and great for a crude oil import dependent nation such as India? There is a need to go beyond pre-conceived notions and understand that the reverse of the common phrase, 'Every cloud has a silver lining' is also true, especially for a country like India. For a nation like India, there is a need to identify the cloud under the silver lining.
While it may be assumed that India will be able to reduce fiscal deficit, reduce inflation, lower interest rates and recover from oil subsidy on account of lower oil import bill. But the steep decline in crude oil price is expected to leave a bitter taste on the government's tax revenues, translate into lower growth of both exports & imports and impact the GDP growth of the country. It is worth to note that the government has increased the excise duty on petrol and diesel twice in a move to aid the tax revenues. For E&P companies such as ONGC, the price drop is expected to impact negatively due to lower realization, although reduced subsidy burden may have some healing effect.
InfraInsights through its report, 'Impact of Oil Price Crash on Different Industries and Overall Indian Economy' is aimed to demystify the impact of the current down-fall in global crude oil prices on the business across the different sectors in the public and private space. The report will also form the basis of an elaborate discussion on how the price trend will be crucial for the incumbent government in bringing out vital economic and policy reforms in India.
On the surface, one may claim that falling crude oil prices are oil importing nation's moment of delight and oil exporting nation's worst nightmare. But is it really all good and great for a crude oil import dependent nation such as India? There is a need to go beyond pre-conceived notions and understand that the reverse of the common phrase, 'Every cloud has a silver lining' is also true, especially for a country like India. For a nation like India, there is a need to identify the cloud under the silver lining.
While it may be assumed that India will be able to reduce fiscal deficit, reduce inflation, lower interest rates and recover from oil subsidy on account of lower oil import bill. But the steep decline in crude oil price is expected to leave a bitter taste on the government's tax revenues, translate into lower growth of both exports & imports and impact the GDP growth of the country. It is worth to note that the government has increased the excise duty on petrol and diesel twice in a move to aid the tax revenues. For E&P companies such as ONGC, the price drop is expected to impact negatively due to lower realization, although reduced subsidy burden may have some healing effect.
InfraInsights through its report, 'Impact of Oil Price Crash on Different Industries and Overall Indian Economy' is aimed to demystify the impact of the current down-fall in global crude oil prices on the business across the different sectors in the public and private space. The report will also form the basis of an elaborate discussion on how the price trend will be crucial for the incumbent government in bringing out vital economic and policy reforms in India.
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. BACKGROUND
3. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS PRICING TRENDS: WTI CRUDE OIL, BRENT CRUDE OIL, JCC, HENRY HUB, NBP AND APAC REGION LNG PRICES
4. ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBLE REASONS FOR THE FALL IN CRUDE OIL PRICES, ROLE OF OPEC AND MOST IMPORTANTLY SAUDI ARABIA
5. HIGH-LEVEL UNDERSTANDING OF THE LIKELY FUTURE TREND IN GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICES BASED ON INDUSTRY VOICES & SPECULATIONS
6. HIGH-LEVEL UNDERSTANDING OF THE IMPACT OF FALLING CRUDE OIL PRICES ON DIFFERENT ECONOMIES, SUCH AS:
a. Russia
b. USA
c. Canada
d. Venezuela
e. Australia
f. India
7. UNDERSTANDING THE LIKELY IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON NATURAL GAS SECTOR AND RLNG MARKET GROWTH IN INDIA
a. Price Competitiveness of Natural Gas vis-à-vis Petroleum Fuel in Industrial, Commercial, Automobile and Residential segment
b. Impact on growth of RLNG market in India based on existing & evolving RLNG Terminals
c. Impact on Gas Pipelines and CGD Projects in India
8. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON THE OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY IN INDIA
a. Impact on revenue realization of major E&P companies: ONGC, OIL, RIL and Cairn
b. Re-rating/De-rating of stocks of the major E&P companies in India
c. Impact on future E&P projects and E&P bidding in India
9. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON PSU & PRIVATE OIL REFINERIES AND OIL MARKETING COMPANIES IN INDIA
a. Impact on Crude Oil import mix in India
b. Impact on growth of domestic refineries in India
c. Impact on the GRM of Refineries in India
d. Impact on the Top & Bottom-line of the Oil Marketing Companies in India
10. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON SUPPLIERS & MARKETERS OF PETROLEUM, OIL AND LUBRICANTS (POL) IN INDIA
a. Understanding the overall POL industry structure
b. Understanding of major players and their market share in POL
c. Financial analysis of select leading Suppliers & Marketers of POL
d. Change in competitive landscape of private vs. government companies
e. Impact of subdued crude oil prices on POL prices
f. Existing market size of POL in terms of volume and revenue
g. Outlook on likely surge in POL market size based on competitive POL prices
11. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON BULK POL STORAGE & TRANSPORTATION BUSINESS IN INDIA
a. Understanding of the overall industry structure of bulk storage and transportation of POL
b. Understanding of major players and their market share
c. Financial analysis of select leading Players
d. Outlook on existing infrastructure in bulk storage and transportation of POL
e. Outlining the possible drivers for growth in bulk storage and transportation of POL
f. Outlining the possible drivers for growth in bulk storage and transportation of POL
12. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON THE MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH IN INDIA
13. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON THE MINING AND TRANSPORTATION SECTOR GROWTH IN INDIA
14. UNDERSTAND THE LIKELY IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON:
a. National Oil Import Bill,
b. Petroleum Subsidy Structure
c. Government Revenues from Oil,
d. GDP Growth and overall economy of India
15. SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS OF THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON DIFFERENT SEGMENTS, POLICY AND ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN INDIA
16. CONCLUSION
2. BACKGROUND
3. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS PRICING TRENDS: WTI CRUDE OIL, BRENT CRUDE OIL, JCC, HENRY HUB, NBP AND APAC REGION LNG PRICES
4. ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBLE REASONS FOR THE FALL IN CRUDE OIL PRICES, ROLE OF OPEC AND MOST IMPORTANTLY SAUDI ARABIA
5. HIGH-LEVEL UNDERSTANDING OF THE LIKELY FUTURE TREND IN GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICES BASED ON INDUSTRY VOICES & SPECULATIONS
6. HIGH-LEVEL UNDERSTANDING OF THE IMPACT OF FALLING CRUDE OIL PRICES ON DIFFERENT ECONOMIES, SUCH AS:
a. Russia
b. USA
c. Canada
d. Venezuela
e. Australia
f. India
7. UNDERSTANDING THE LIKELY IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON NATURAL GAS SECTOR AND RLNG MARKET GROWTH IN INDIA
a. Price Competitiveness of Natural Gas vis-à-vis Petroleum Fuel in Industrial, Commercial, Automobile and Residential segment
b. Impact on growth of RLNG market in India based on existing & evolving RLNG Terminals
c. Impact on Gas Pipelines and CGD Projects in India
8. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON THE OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY IN INDIA
a. Impact on revenue realization of major E&P companies: ONGC, OIL, RIL and Cairn
b. Re-rating/De-rating of stocks of the major E&P companies in India
c. Impact on future E&P projects and E&P bidding in India
9. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON PSU & PRIVATE OIL REFINERIES AND OIL MARKETING COMPANIES IN INDIA
a. Impact on Crude Oil import mix in India
b. Impact on growth of domestic refineries in India
c. Impact on the GRM of Refineries in India
d. Impact on the Top & Bottom-line of the Oil Marketing Companies in India
10. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON SUPPLIERS & MARKETERS OF PETROLEUM, OIL AND LUBRICANTS (POL) IN INDIA
a. Understanding the overall POL industry structure
b. Understanding of major players and their market share in POL
c. Financial analysis of select leading Suppliers & Marketers of POL
d. Change in competitive landscape of private vs. government companies
e. Impact of subdued crude oil prices on POL prices
f. Existing market size of POL in terms of volume and revenue
g. Outlook on likely surge in POL market size based on competitive POL prices
11. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON BULK POL STORAGE & TRANSPORTATION BUSINESS IN INDIA
a. Understanding of the overall industry structure of bulk storage and transportation of POL
b. Understanding of major players and their market share
c. Financial analysis of select leading Players
d. Outlook on existing infrastructure in bulk storage and transportation of POL
e. Outlining the possible drivers for growth in bulk storage and transportation of POL
f. Outlining the possible drivers for growth in bulk storage and transportation of POL
12. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON THE MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH IN INDIA
13. UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON THE MINING AND TRANSPORTATION SECTOR GROWTH IN INDIA
14. UNDERSTAND THE LIKELY IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON:
a. National Oil Import Bill,
b. Petroleum Subsidy Structure
c. Government Revenues from Oil,
d. GDP Growth and overall economy of India
15. SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS OF THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE IMPACT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE DECLINE ON DIFFERENT SEGMENTS, POLICY AND ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN INDIA
16. CONCLUSION
