Russian steel scrap market. Features, trends, forecast
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Raw material supply to electric steel producers is a central issue now, as their capacities have soared in recent years and the rise continues. The expected decrease in scrap export duties is one of crucial factors here. Whether there will be enough scrap can be understood only through detailed analysis of the regional market balances that allows for the expected scrap demand and generation dynamics.
In the new research called “Russian steel scrap market. Features, trends, forecast”, Metal Expert Consulting in detail examines ferrous scrap generation, collection, shipments and consumption in Russia. An overview of competition in the regional markets is given, export statistics and Russia’s positions in the global trade are analyzed. Price formation issues are studied, factors affecting price formation and indicators that may be used in price forecasting are determined. The market balance and changes in commodity flows in the period until 2015 are assessed using the optimization model of the Russian scrap market developed by Metal Expert Consulting.
The study results show that in the medium term the Russian market will undergo big changes, which means new opportunities for players.
The research “Russian steel scrap market. Features, trends, forecast” includes 65 pages of analytical data with graphs and tables in a pdf format, as well as an excel supplement that includes detailed statistics (the period between 2008 and 2012).
Preparing the research, Metal Expert Consulting used the following information:
Raw material supply to electric steel producers is a central issue now, as their capacities have soared in recent years and the rise continues. The expected decrease in scrap export duties is one of crucial factors here. Whether there will be enough scrap can be understood only through detailed analysis of the regional market balances that allows for the expected scrap demand and generation dynamics.
In the new research called “Russian steel scrap market. Features, trends, forecast”, Metal Expert Consulting in detail examines ferrous scrap generation, collection, shipments and consumption in Russia. An overview of competition in the regional markets is given, export statistics and Russia’s positions in the global trade are analyzed. Price formation issues are studied, factors affecting price formation and indicators that may be used in price forecasting are determined. The market balance and changes in commodity flows in the period until 2015 are assessed using the optimization model of the Russian scrap market developed by Metal Expert Consulting.
The study results show that in the medium term the Russian market will undergo big changes, which means new opportunities for players.
The research “Russian steel scrap market. Features, trends, forecast” includes 65 pages of analytical data with graphs and tables in a pdf format, as well as an excel supplement that includes detailed statistics (the period between 2008 and 2012).
Preparing the research, Metal Expert Consulting used the following information:
- scrap consumption by company;
- railway statistics, and its analysis enabled assessment of:
- scrap shipments to steel producers, regional supply structure;
- scrap collection in Russia’s districts;
- scrap shipments to certain scrap collectors, structure of their supplies by district;
- steel product and pipe consumption by district and sector (source – Metal Expert). The data analysis enabled Metal Expert Consulting to estimate new scrap generation volumes, its structure by sectors and districts, to define the key “scrap generators”. The analysis, as well as estimates of overall scrap collection and new scrap generation volumes, has been the basis for estimates of obsolete scrap collection and its structure by districts;
- Russian steel market statistics. The statistics were analysed to asses Russia’s scrap reserves (both by district and in the country as a whole), provide basis for scrap collection volumes and make scrap collection forecasts for the medium term;
- Russian steelmakers’ purchase prices Metal Expert collects every month (data on purchase prices of 14 companies since January 2011) were used to calculate average weighted prices (taking into account scrap shipments to mills), both for the country as a whole and for the Central, Urals and Southern Federal Districts;
- data on consumption coefficients in pig iron, crude steel and rolled steel production, allowing assessment of a mill’s need for each of the raw materials, assessment of home scrap generation;
- prices in the raw material market, collected weekly by Metal Expert.
1. SCRAP GENERATION AND COLLECTION VOLUMES IN RUSSIA. SOURCES AND SPECIFIC FEATURES OF SCRAP GENERATION: OBSOLETE, NEW AND HOME SCRAP.
1.1 Obsolete scrap
1.2 New scrap
1.3 Home scrap
2. THE STRUCTURE OF MARKET PLAYERS: SCRAP COLLECTING NETWORKS, INDEPENDENT COMPANIES – SCRAP COLLECTION VOLUMES, SCRAP COLLECTION ORIENTATION BY DISTRICT, SHARE IN THE SCRAP COLLECTION MARKET
3. SCRAP DISTRIBUTION BY CONSUMING DISTRICT, BY EXPORT DESTINATION. IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS FOR EACH DISTRICT.
3.1 Exports
3.2 The domestic market
4. RUSSIA’S POSITION IN THE GLOBAL AND KEY REGIONAL SCRAP MARKETS.
5. SCRAP CONSUMPTION IN RUSSIA
5.1 Steelmakers’ scrap needs by consumer category.
5.2 Scrap supply to the main consumers: the share of home scrap in requirement, share of steelmakers’ own networks in purchases.
6. THE CURRENT AND FORECAST BALANCE OF THE SCRAP MARKET.
6.1 The regional market balance – the ratio between scrap requirement and collection in each of the federal districts
Urals Federal District
Northwestern Federal District
Central Federal District
Southern Federal District
Volga Federal District
6.2 Forecast of scrap distribution by district in Russia and export destination, based on planned expected scrap collection volumes, commissioning of steelmaking capacities, decrease in the scrap export duty.
6.3 Forecast of the scrap market balance: comparison of expected scrap collection volumes with forecast scrap needs of steel producers (based on forecast of consumption volumes, steel product output).
7. PRICE SETTING IN THE SCRAP MARKET.
1.1 Obsolete scrap
1.2 New scrap
1.3 Home scrap
2. THE STRUCTURE OF MARKET PLAYERS: SCRAP COLLECTING NETWORKS, INDEPENDENT COMPANIES – SCRAP COLLECTION VOLUMES, SCRAP COLLECTION ORIENTATION BY DISTRICT, SHARE IN THE SCRAP COLLECTION MARKET
3. SCRAP DISTRIBUTION BY CONSUMING DISTRICT, BY EXPORT DESTINATION. IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS FOR EACH DISTRICT.
3.1 Exports
3.2 The domestic market
4. RUSSIA’S POSITION IN THE GLOBAL AND KEY REGIONAL SCRAP MARKETS.
5. SCRAP CONSUMPTION IN RUSSIA
5.1 Steelmakers’ scrap needs by consumer category.
5.2 Scrap supply to the main consumers: the share of home scrap in requirement, share of steelmakers’ own networks in purchases.
6. THE CURRENT AND FORECAST BALANCE OF THE SCRAP MARKET.
6.1 The regional market balance – the ratio between scrap requirement and collection in each of the federal districts
Urals Federal District
Northwestern Federal District
Central Federal District
Southern Federal District
Volga Federal District
6.2 Forecast of scrap distribution by district in Russia and export destination, based on planned expected scrap collection volumes, commissioning of steelmaking capacities, decrease in the scrap export duty.
6.3 Forecast of the scrap market balance: comparison of expected scrap collection volumes with forecast scrap needs of steel producers (based on forecast of consumption volumes, steel product output).
7. PRICE SETTING IN THE SCRAP MARKET.
TABLES AND GRAPHS:
Dynamics of scrap generation in Russia
Generation of obsolete scrap and its share in overall scrap volume
Estimate of obsolete scrap generation and collection in Russia
Obsolete scrap collection structure by district (2012)
Obsolete scrap collection in Russia’s federal districts, ‘000 t
New scrap generation and its positions in overall volume
Volume of steel scrap and waste generated in different consuming sectors
New scrap generation structure by sectors (2012)
New scrap generation in industries, ‘000 t
10 TOP-TIER NEW SCRAP GENERATORS, ‘000 T
New scrap generation structure by district (2012)
Sectoral peculiarities of new scrap generation in key districts (2012)
New scrap collection in Russia’s federal districts, ‘000 t
Home scrap generation and its positions in overall volume
Home scrap generation sources, ‘000 t
Home scrap generation structure by district (2012)
10 TOP-TIER HOME SCRAP GENERATORS
Positions of network companies in scrap collection (2012)
Positions of major independent companies in scrap collection (2012)
Competitive analysis of key scrap collectors in Russia (2012)
Structure of scrap collectors in districts (2012)
Scrap collection in Russia
Scrap collection districts, ‘000 t
Scrap collection peculiarities by district (2012), ‘000 t
Scrap exports from Russia
Scrap export destinations, ‘000 t
Scrap shipments to consumers by transportation type
Positions of Russia’s districts in scrap purchases (2012)
Structure of scrap consumers by size (2012)
Structure of scrap purchases by district (2012)
Structure of scrap shipments by district (2012)
Dynamics of scrap purchases by 3 top-tier importers
Key scrap suppliers to Turkey
Positions of major exporting countries in global trade
Positions of Russia in key markets (2012)
Steel production in Russia
Scrap share in finished steel price (2012)
Importance of scrap expenses for certain groups of steelmakers
Home scrap share in procurement for largest steel producers
Positions of affiliated collectors in scrap purchases (2012)
Share of automobile and river transport in scrap purchases (2012)
Major scrap consumers
Russian scrap market balance
Scrap market balance in Russia’s districts (2012)
Scrap market balance in Urals Federal District
Dynamics of scrap shipments to Urals Federal District
Scrap market balance in Northwestern Federal District
Dynamics of scrap shipments to Northwestern Federal District
Scrap shipments to Northwestern Federal District from Volga Federal District
Scrap market balance in Central Federal District
Scrap shipments between Central Federal District and Volga Federal District
Scrap market balance in Southern Federal District
Scrap shipments to Southern Federal District
Scrap market balance in Volga Federal District
Scrap shipments to Volga Federal District
Scrap market balance in districts (2012)
Most probable plans to launch and halt steelmaking capacities in Russia in 2013-2015
Potential changes in scrap purchase structure in case of export duty reduction, ‘000 t
Estimate of districts’ contribution to increase in scrap exports from Russia’s northern ports in case of one-time export duty reduction, ‘000 t
Estimate of districts’ contribution to increase in scrap shipments from Russia’s southern ports in case of one-time export duty reduction, ‘000 t
Estimate of districts’ contribution to decline in scrap shipments to Severstal in case of one-time export duty reduction, ‘000 t
Estimate of changes in scrap shipments from Southern Federal District in 2015 against actual shipments in 2012, ‘000 t
Estimate of changes in scrap shipments to Severstal in 2015 against actual shipments in 2012, ‘000 t
Estimate of changes in scrap purchases in Russia in 2015, ‘000 t
Actual obsolete scrap collection in Russia in 2004-2012 and mills’ purchase prices
Estimate of changes in scrap purchases in Russia in 2015 depending on scrap purchase price, ’000 t
Forecast scrap market balance
Dynamics of average weighted scrap purchase prices
Dynamics of average weighted prices in districts
Price positions of largest scrap consumers (average purchase prices in January-April 2013)
Scrap price dependence in Russia’s and Turkey’s markets
Scrap and steel product price dependence
Forecast of average scrap purchase prices from Russian steelmakers
Actual and forecast prices in Russia’s scrap market, $/t without VAT
Dynamics of scrap generation in Russia
Generation of obsolete scrap and its share in overall scrap volume
Estimate of obsolete scrap generation and collection in Russia
Obsolete scrap collection structure by district (2012)
Obsolete scrap collection in Russia’s federal districts, ‘000 t
New scrap generation and its positions in overall volume
Volume of steel scrap and waste generated in different consuming sectors
New scrap generation structure by sectors (2012)
New scrap generation in industries, ‘000 t
10 TOP-TIER NEW SCRAP GENERATORS, ‘000 T
New scrap generation structure by district (2012)
Sectoral peculiarities of new scrap generation in key districts (2012)
New scrap collection in Russia’s federal districts, ‘000 t
Home scrap generation and its positions in overall volume
Home scrap generation sources, ‘000 t
Home scrap generation structure by district (2012)
10 TOP-TIER HOME SCRAP GENERATORS
Positions of network companies in scrap collection (2012)
Positions of major independent companies in scrap collection (2012)
Competitive analysis of key scrap collectors in Russia (2012)
Structure of scrap collectors in districts (2012)
Scrap collection in Russia
Scrap collection districts, ‘000 t
Scrap collection peculiarities by district (2012), ‘000 t
Scrap exports from Russia
Scrap export destinations, ‘000 t
Scrap shipments to consumers by transportation type
Positions of Russia’s districts in scrap purchases (2012)
Structure of scrap consumers by size (2012)
Structure of scrap purchases by district (2012)
Structure of scrap shipments by district (2012)
Dynamics of scrap purchases by 3 top-tier importers
Key scrap suppliers to Turkey
Positions of major exporting countries in global trade
Positions of Russia in key markets (2012)
Steel production in Russia
Scrap share in finished steel price (2012)
Importance of scrap expenses for certain groups of steelmakers
Home scrap share in procurement for largest steel producers
Positions of affiliated collectors in scrap purchases (2012)
Share of automobile and river transport in scrap purchases (2012)
Major scrap consumers
Russian scrap market balance
Scrap market balance in Russia’s districts (2012)
Scrap market balance in Urals Federal District
Dynamics of scrap shipments to Urals Federal District
Scrap market balance in Northwestern Federal District
Dynamics of scrap shipments to Northwestern Federal District
Scrap shipments to Northwestern Federal District from Volga Federal District
Scrap market balance in Central Federal District
Scrap shipments between Central Federal District and Volga Federal District
Scrap market balance in Southern Federal District
Scrap shipments to Southern Federal District
Scrap market balance in Volga Federal District
Scrap shipments to Volga Federal District
Scrap market balance in districts (2012)
Most probable plans to launch and halt steelmaking capacities in Russia in 2013-2015
Potential changes in scrap purchase structure in case of export duty reduction, ‘000 t
Estimate of districts’ contribution to increase in scrap exports from Russia’s northern ports in case of one-time export duty reduction, ‘000 t
Estimate of districts’ contribution to increase in scrap shipments from Russia’s southern ports in case of one-time export duty reduction, ‘000 t
Estimate of districts’ contribution to decline in scrap shipments to Severstal in case of one-time export duty reduction, ‘000 t
Estimate of changes in scrap shipments from Southern Federal District in 2015 against actual shipments in 2012, ‘000 t
Estimate of changes in scrap shipments to Severstal in 2015 against actual shipments in 2012, ‘000 t
Estimate of changes in scrap purchases in Russia in 2015, ‘000 t
Actual obsolete scrap collection in Russia in 2004-2012 and mills’ purchase prices
Estimate of changes in scrap purchases in Russia in 2015 depending on scrap purchase price, ’000 t
Forecast scrap market balance
Dynamics of average weighted scrap purchase prices
Dynamics of average weighted prices in districts
Price positions of largest scrap consumers (average purchase prices in January-April 2013)
Scrap price dependence in Russia’s and Turkey’s markets
Scrap and steel product price dependence
Forecast of average scrap purchase prices from Russian steelmakers
Actual and forecast prices in Russia’s scrap market, $/t without VAT
