Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market

Date: October 22, 2010
Pages: 145
Price:
US$ 3,995.00
Publisher: Packaged Facts
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: L3247E55704EN
Leaflet:

Download PDF Leaflet

Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market
To help foodservice industry participants face challenges unique to the lunch daypart, Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides insight on the lunch goer’s decision-making process. By putting a finger to the lunch goer’s pulse, we provide insight on two keys factors to lunch-time foodservice: how and why the consumer decided on a specific restaurant from which to obtain lunch, and how and why that consumer decides what to order from the menu.

Introductory findings include the following: When deciding on a restaurant from which to obtain lunch, 37% of lunch goers cite a favorite menu item as influencing their choice, and some 36% cite a different menu item than what they have at home. But low cost has become the industry mantra—and is also important to many consumers. About 35% cite a meal priced under $5 as an influence when selecting a restaurant, and 31% say that a meal priced under $10 has influenced them to select a restaurant for lunch.

With proprietary consumer research laying the foundation, this report weaves consultative insight with analysis of lunchtime limited-time offer and value trends; current lunchtime guest check averages; planned restaurant spending; and guest traffic patterns at selected brands. We also shine a light on leading lunch-centric brands, by outlining menu strategies and related innovations, and then tying them to demographic analysis of the brand users’ diet, health, and food attitudes; and usage patterns.

The report also trends lunch daypart sales by demographics such as income, age, region, and race/ethnicity. Analysis also focuses on consumers particularly important to the lunch daypart, such as the full-time and part-time employed.

While the restaurant industry is the primary focus of the report, consumer survey assessment incorporates prepared foods at grocery stores and convenience stores, and trend analysis incorporates both restaurants and food retail.
CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Scope and Methodology
  Scope
  Methodology
Macroeconomic Analysis
  Fast Facts
Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker
  Fast Facts
Share of Stomach: Lunch Sales Analysis
  Fast Facts
Lunch Trends, Innovations & Strategies
  Fast Facts
Lunch Restaurant Selection Analysis
  Fast Facts
Lunch Menu Selection Analysis
  Fast facts
Budgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown
Lunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Trendsetters
  Chipotle Mexican Grill
  Panera Bread
  Freshii

CHAPTER 2: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS

RESTAURANT SALES RALLY FIZZLES; LONG SLOG AHEAD

Restaurant industry sales dip in June; future weakness likely
Spending upturn hinges on consumers with strong balance sheets
  Upturn to benefit casual restaurants at expense of family and fast food/QSR players
  Non-discretionary spending a recession rule
  But affluent may help drive growth in discretionary spend
Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Gloomy Near-Term Outlook
In-home breakfast and dinner trend remains significant
Bagging lunch takes a bite out of restaurant sales?
Graph 2-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View
  Looking ahead: Saving & grocery spending trumps limited service and full-service restaurant spend
Graph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View
  February to June food services & drinking places monthly sales sequentially improve
  Full-service restaurants get needed shot in the arm; shift momentum away from grocery
Graph 2-3: Monthly Sales, 12-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services & Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010
  But month-to-month spending trends suggest restaurant and food retail pullback
Graph 2-4: Monthly Sales, Month-to-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services & Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010
Restaurant Performance Index contracts for second straight month
Graph 2-5: Restaurant Performance Index, Monthly Metrics, 2006-2010

MACROECONOMIC FACTORS SHAPING RESTAURANT SALES

Consumer confidence? No, not really
  Present Situation Index decreases as perceptions of job prospects continue to darken
  Expectations Index weighed down by dimmer outlook on job prospects
Unemploymentrate stagnates
  Some perspective:
Graph 2-6: Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010
By demographic, unemployment rates settle into troughs
  Disparity in unemployment rates by education level
  Young adults, minorities and men also find harder going
Graph 2-7: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010
Graph 2-8: Unemployment Rate, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007-2010
How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad?
  Households continue to repair their balance sheets
Graph 2-9: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010
Graph 2-10: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio, 2007-2010
Unemployment and GPD forecast: expect recovery to take several years
  Slow employment rebound to coincide with a slowrebound in consumer spending
Graph 2-11: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-12
Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006 levels a long way off
  Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006 high
Graph 2-12: Household Net Worth, 2005-10
  Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism
  Q2 2010 summary equities analysis
Graph 2-13: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index: 2007-2010
Food at home maintains pricing edge
Graph 2-14: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010
Graph 2-15: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010
Food inflation forecast remains muted
  CPI forecast for food at home and food away from home
Commodities pricing analysis
  Intermediate foods and feeds index dips during Q1 2010
  Prepared animal feed prices lead decline
  Dairy product index falls after Q4 2009 hike
  Finished consumer foods rise
  Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rise tapers from Q4 2009 pop

CHAPTER 3: RESTAURANT USAGE & OUTLOOK TRACKER

Note on reading charts
Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: at-home food spend trumps out-of-home spend
  February 2010 trend continues in June 2010
Taking a bite from lunch
Graph 3-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View
  Looking ahead: Consumers more likely to save & spend on groceries than spend at restaurants
Graph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View
  Planned spending on fast food appears grim
Graph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Fast Food Restaurant Spending
  Intended full-service spend lacks promise
Graph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service Restaurant Spending
Intention to save money remains high
Graph 3-5: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Saving Money

LUNCH RESTAURANT GOERS INTEND TO SPEND MORE AT RESTAURANTS

Intended spend more likely among smoothie shop, fine dining and coffeehouse lunch goers
Graph 3-6: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service and Limited-Service Spending, Restaurant Lunch Users

RESTAURANT USAGE AND USAGE FREQUENCY

Overview
  February 2010 to June 2010 mean use comparison
Graph 3-7: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
Graph 3-8: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
18-34s continue to drive guest counts
Graph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age
  18-34s exhibit higher usage
  Key smoothie shop and street stand users
Graph 3-10: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age
HH income: fast food enjoys egalitarian status
Graph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income
Graph 3-12: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income
Employment status: having a job pays the bills but also fits restaurant lifestyle
Graph 3-13: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Employment Status
  Full-time workers and students also compare favorably regarding overall usage
Graph 3-14: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Employment Status

RESTAURANT LUNCH USE

Lunch day part accounts for about one-third of all usage
Graph 3-15: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, 2010
Fast food dominates lunch
Graph 3-16: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010
  Gender: men + grab-and-go
Graph 3-17: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Gender
  Age: mobile lifestyles speak volumes
Graph 3-18: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Age
  HH income: it’s all about disposable income
Graph 3-19: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by HH Income
  Employment status a driving factor
  Students at the grocery store?
Graph 3-20: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Employment Status
Appendix: Consumer Survey

CHAPTER 4: SHARE OF STOMACH: LUNCH SALES ANALYSIS

MARKET SIZE AND OVERVIEW


  Declining sales amidst a very touch climate
  Near-term challenges
Lunch daypart sales peak in 2008, dip in 2009 and 2010
Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, 2005-2011
Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, % growth, 2005-2011
  Terminology and sourcing note
Lunch comprises 12% of HH food spend
Graph 4-2: Food at Home versus Food Away from Home Daypart Spend
Fast food has 50% share of lunch daypart sales
Graph 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines & Cafeterias
Consumer food expenditure trends suggest migration to food at home spend
Table 4-1: Consumer Food Expenditures, 2005-08
Lunch share of restaurant spend consistent during 2005-08
Table 4-2: Meals Away From Home Expenditures, by Daypart, 2005-08
Lunch takes only a 1.2% bite out of pre-tax income
Table 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines Cafeteria Spend, 2005-08
Graph 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines & Cafeterias, 2005-08
Lunch expenditures highest in south Northeast consumer units spend least on percentage basis
Table 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Region
On a per dollar basis, youth drives lunch spend 56% of 65+ lunch dollars go to full-service establishments
Table 4-5: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Age
Higher income = higher absolute lunch spend, but lower percentage of income
Table 4-6: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Income
Lunch share of wallet highest among Hispanics
Table 4-7: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Race/Ethnicity

GUEST TRAFFIC ANALYSIS

Frequency counts: definition
1 in 20 McDonald’s monthly users goes 14 or more times per month!
Guest traffic rises most at Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill
Table 4-8: Guest Traffic: Limited-Service Restaurants, Selected Lunch Players, 2008-10

DAYPART MEAL SPEND ANALYSIS

Breakfast meal spend approaches that for lunch at fast food and family restaurants
Graph 4-5: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend, by Daypart and Restaurant Type, 2010
Lunch meal spend by restaurant type reveals significant differences
Graph 4-6: Lunch Meal Spend, Fast Food Versus Family Restaurants, Selected Demographics
Fast food daypart spending reveals differences among married and older users
Table 4-9: Meal Spend by Daypart, Fast Food Restaurants, Selected Demographics

CHAPTER 5: LUNCH TRENDS, INNOVATIONS & STRATEGIES

DISCOUNTING AND BUNDLING


Extreme affordability weighs down fast food/QSR
Everyday value strategies add wrinkle to family dining segment
Full-service value menus
Lunchtime LTO meal bundling trends
  Fast food/QSR
  Fast casual
  Family & casual dining restaurants

HEALTH ON MENU

  Choosing more healthful options away from home on the rise
What does “healthy” mean to consumers?
Table 5-1: Restaurant Health Attitudes, 2010
Table 5-2: Consumers’ Associations with “Healthy,” 2010
  Challenging perceptions that healthy food is more expensive

CHAPTER 6: LUNCH RESTAURANT SELECTION ANALYSIS

Note on reading charts

LUNCH RESTAURANT SELECTION INFLUENCERS

Overview
Graph 6-1: Lunch Restaurant Selection Influencers, 2010
Lunch restaurant selection: convenience influencers
  Gender shapes routine
Graph 6-2: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Gender, 2010
  Age-driven lifestyle needs influence lunch restaurant selection
Graph 6-3: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Age, 2010
  HH income shapes importance of work proximity
Graph 6-4: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
  Employment status: work implies less mobility, more routine
Graph 6-5: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
  Urban, suburban, or rural location affect proximity and routine
Graph 6-6: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, Urban, Suburban, Rural, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch menu item influencers
  Portion control for cost and for calories entices women
Graph 6-7: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Gender, 2010
  Portion control for cost savings a cue for 18-24s
Graph 6-8: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Age, 2010
  Healthy menu items an egalitarian influence
Graph 6-9: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
  Students swayed by a plethora of menu items; retires another matter
Graph 6-10: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch cost threshold influencers
  Meal deal? At lower price points, women lunch goers just a tad more interested
Graph 6-11: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Gender, 2010
  Younger people: meal deal, please!
Graph 6-12: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Age, 2010
  HH income: don’t underestimate interest in meal deals across the board
Graph 6-13: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
  Employment status: students seeking deals
Graph 6-14: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch dine-in partner influencers
Age: friends, family, or alone?
Graph 6-15: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Dine-in Partner Influencers, by Age, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch takeout partner influencers
Save me some money on tip and drinks?
Graph 6-16: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Takeout Partner Influencers, by Income, 2010

CHAPTER 7: LUNCH MENU SELECTION ANALYSIS

Note on reading charts

LUNCH MENU SELECTION INFLUENCERS

Overview
Graph 7-1: Menu Selection Influencers, Lunch Daypart, 2010
  Health and bundles skew the age spectrum
Graph 7-2: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Age, 2010
  HH income: seasonal and healthful items versus bundled items
Graph 7-3: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
Employment status: students love a good bundle
  Graph 7-4: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Urban, suburban, or rural location: here’s to urban health
Graph 7-5: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Rural/Urban/Suburban, 2010

CHAPTER 8: BUDGETERS AND HEALTHY EATERS: USAGE, ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR DRILLDROWN MEET THE PSYCHOGRAPHIC GROUPS

Some men really do like to eat healthy: how can operators connect with them?
  Budgeters drawn by cost, naturally, but by other factors, too
  Portion size provides double-sided menu connection with male Healthy Eaters
  Meal pricing thresholds provide opportunity to connect with male Healthy Eaters
Table 8-1: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Psychographic Groups, by Gender
Income splits reveal some lunch surprises
  Difference and customization more of a factor among <$50K Healthy Eaters
  Promotions and bundles incent wider swath of lower-HH income Budgeters
Table 8-2: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters, by HH Income
Youth drives interest among both Budgeters and Healthy Eaters
Table 8-3: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters, by Age

CHAPTER 9: RESTAURANT LUNCH DINING PARTNER ANALYSIS

FAST FOOD LUNCH USAGE LEADS ALL DAYPARTS


Table 9-1: Fast Food Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010
Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch usage lags dinner daypart
Table 9-2: Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010
Fast food lunch dining partners differ according to demographic
Table 9-3: Lunch Fast Food Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010
Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch: more of an adult thing
Table 9-4: Lunch Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010

CHAPTER 10: LUNCH ON THE MENU: RESTAURANT BRAND ANALYSIS

Note on food lifestyle segmentation charts and demographics
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Competitive positioning: Customization; Food with Integrity
  Marketing that backs Food with Integrity
2010 strategy
  On the menu
  Restaurant expansion plans: digging deeper where presence is already established
  Loyalty program to target “evangelical, super-passionate regular customers”
Chipotle Mexican Grill: selected demographics
  A 10 million-strong consumer universe
  Strong income and gender skew
Table 10-1: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Selected Demographics
Food Lifestyle Segmentation: Variety on a Budget& True Foodies
Graph 10-1: Chipotle Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Chipotle Mexican Grill users: gourmets, meet practicality
Table 10-2: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Food, Health and Diet Attitudes
Chipotle by the numbers
Table 10-3: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Selected Metrics, 2007-09
  Q2 2010 sales driven by increased visits
  Outlook
Table 10-4: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Quarterly Sales Metrics, 2009-10

PANERA BREAD

  2009-2010 lunch strategy has positive momentum
  Trading up
  “You Pick”!
  Owning the menu category
  Next up: Paninis
  Catering: going after the big fish
  Loyalty programcoming to a Panera near you
  A toe in the licensing water
Panera Bread: selected demographics
  A 16.4 million universe
  Strong income and gender skew
Table 10-5: Panera Bread Users: Selected Demographics
Panera Bread Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  Variety on a Budgetand True Foodies turn the doors with greatest frequency
Graph 10-2: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Panera Bread users: food, health and diet attitudes
  A more health-conscious bunch with a touch of food guilt
Table 10-6: Panera Bread Users: Food, Health and Diet Attitudes
Sales trending upward
Table 10-7: Panera Bread, Selected Metrics, 2007-09
  Q2 2010 same-store sales jump almost 10%
Shift in menu mix suggests movement toward higher-priced items
Table 10-8: Panera Bread, Quarterly Sales Metrics, Q2 2009 & Q2 2010

FRESHII—THE NEW NAME IN HEALTHFUL FARE

The Freshii store and menu
Fast and convenient
Health placed front and center
  Calories and other health information updated in real time
A Freshii view of customization
  Technology savvy
  Green initiatives

APPENDIX ON FOOD LIFESTYLE SEGMENTATION CHARTS
Skip to top


Trends in U.S. Corporate Foodservice US$ 3,995.00 Mar, 2011 · 122 pages
Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market US$ 3,995.00 Aug, 2010 · 150 pages
Dinner Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market US$ 3,995.00 Nov, 2010 · 183 pages
Catering Trends in U.S. Foodservice US$ 3,995.00 Jan, 2011 · 120 pages

Ask Your Question

Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market
Company name*:
Contact person*:
Phone/fax*:
Email*:
Request invoice
Your enquiry:
Please click on a Check Box below to confirm you are not a robot: