Ammonia: Major Trends Shaping the Market Landscape in 2026

28 Sep 2026 • by Natalie Aster

Ammonia buyers in 2026 face three pressures: fertilizer demand, volatile energy costs and growing interest in lower-emissions supply. About 70% of ammonia goes into fertilizers; the rest supports products including plastics, explosives and synthetic fibers. Gas and shipping disruptions can change regional costs quickly, while low-emissions projects are advancing more slowly than announcements suggest. 

Fertilizer Demand Remains the Ammonia Market’s Anchor

Ammonia is the starting material for urea, ammonium nitrate and other nitrogen fertilizers. The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) estimates global fertilizer nitrogen use at 118.9 million tonnes of nitrogen in 2025/26. Its May 2026 scenarios put 2026/27 use at 117.5 million tonnes after a brief supply shock or 114.5 million tonnes after prolonged disruption. Both paths recover to 123.6 million tonnes by 2030/31. These are fertilizer nitrogen use scenarios, not observed ammonia production. 

Natural Gas Prices & Trade Routes Drive Regional Ammonia Costs

Just over 70% of global ammonia output uses natural gas to produce hydrogen before ammonia synthesis. IFA estimates gas typically accounts for 60–80% of nitrogen production costs. Higher gas prices can therefore squeeze plants in importing regions. 

Five Gulf producers – Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain – accounted for 23% of global ammonia trade in 2024, according to IFA. The 2026 disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has affected fertilizer shipments and gas flows. Buyers now have to weigh freight costs and delivery timing alongside plant capacity. 

Green & Blue Ammonia Face an Offtake Test

Green ammonia uses hydrogen from electrolysis powered by low-emissions electricity; blue ammonia generally uses fossil-based hydrogen with carbon capture and storage. The IEA estimates that, before policy support, carbon-capture production costs about 30% more than conventional ammonia, while electrolysis costs roughly three times as much on a global-average basis. Its assessment identifies 19 million tonnes of low-emissions ammonia projects for fertilizer use, including feasibility-stage projects. That pipeline is not current supply. 

Marine Fuel Creates Optional Demand, Not an Immediate Volume Surge

Ammonia can serve as a hydrogen carrier and potential ship fuel. The International Maritime Organization has approved interim safety guidelines for ammonia-fueled ships, but bunkering, crew training and firm purchase contracts still need to develop. The IEA says policy uncertainty constrains near-term fuel switching in shipping. Fertilizer remains the decisive outlet while marine applications mature. 

Final Thoughts

The ammonia market’s next phase will be shaped by the cost of producing and delivering each tonne, not capacity announcements alone. Fertilizer production will remain its largest outlet. Through 2026, the clearest signals will be fertilizer affordability, regional gas prices, dependable trade routes and firm low-emissions offtake.

For country-level production, trade, price and capacity forecasts, see Ammonia: 2026 World Market Outlook and Forecast up to 2035. 

For country-wide and regional reports covering the ammonia market follow to this Market Publishers’ catalogue.

CONTACTS

The Market Publishers, Ltd.
Natalie Aster
Tel: +357 96 030 922
 [email protected]
 MarketPublishers.com