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Ukraine - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses

December 2020 | 165 pages | ID: U94A9588635BEN
BuddeComm

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The Ukraine - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses report includes all relevant BuddeComm research data and analysis. Covering trends and developments in telecommunications, mobile, internet, broadband, infrastructure and regulation. Please review the Executive Summary and Table of Contents for more details.

Ukraine's government approves plan for 5G migration in 2021

Ukraine's developing telecom market has attracted international investors in recent years. One of the major players, Russia's MTS, in mid-2020 sold its interest in Vodafone Ukraine to Azerbaijani investors. The market has continued to face considerable difficulties resulting from the annexation of Crimea by Russia, as well as from unrest in eastern regions. The Covid-19 pandemic has also contributed to a faltering economy, with GDP expected to have fallen 7.7% in 2020. This has put pressure on telcos' revenue.

The sizeable broadband market enjoys effective cross-platform competition. DSL remains an important platform though it has been eclipsed by fibre following efforts by operators to build networks based on FttP. Wireless platforms such as Wi-Fi and WiMAX exist on a smaller scale, and there is ongoing investment aimed at delivering a national wireless network. A number of wireless broadband licensees have also had their concessions extended to 2025, which will provide greater certainty in investment decisions.

The competitive mobile market is dominated by the three network operators Vodafone Ukraine (sold by MTS in late 2019), Kyivstar (owned by VEON) and Lifecell (owned by Turkcell). These dominant providers have effectively stymied the development of the MVNO sector by promoting their own low-cost subsidiaries. As a result, the MVNO market remains underdeveloped and few operators have been licensed thus far. Nevertheless, in coming years a gap in the low-cost segment may provide the opportunity for MVNOs to thrive.

Mobile broadband services present a significant growth opportunity. Significant investment has been made in extending LTE infrastructure. Spectrum in the 900MHz band was refarmed for LTE services, and new licences were issued to the MNOs in mid-2020. The MNOs have also more recently concentrated on 5G, supported by the regulator which has drawn up a plan to develop 5G based on new spectrum releases in 2021.

This report provides an overview of Ukraine's telecom market, including profiles of the major operators, a review of telecom network infrastructure, regulatory measures, and emerging network developments. The report also reviews the mobile market, offering a range of statistics as well as assessments on the key players and technology deployments. In addition, the report covers the fixed-and fixed-wireless broadband segments, including subscriber forecasts.

BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.

On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.

Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.

The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.

Key developments:
  • Vodafone Ukraine further develops NB-IoT capabilities;
  • MTS Group completes sale of Vodafone Ukraine to Bakcell;
  • Legal amendments to Telecoms Law widen regulator's powers;
  • Fixed-line and mobile providers team up to offer bundled services;
  • Ukrtelecom extends fibre-based services to additional communities;
  • Aero extends WiMAX licence to 2025;
Report update includes the regulator market data, State Statistics data to June 2020, telcos' operating and financial data to Q3 2020, Telecom Maturity Index charts and analyses, assessment of the global impact of Covid-19 on the telecoms sector, recent market developments.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Ukrtelecom, Kyivstar (Beeline), Datagroup, Eurotranstelecom, Vega, Velton Telecom, Intertelecom, ITC, Telesystems, Golden Telecom, PAN Wireless, Volia Cable, Ukrainian Radio Systems, Lifecell (Astelit), Vodafone Ukraine (MTS, Bakcell)
1 KEY STATISTICS

2 REGIONAL EUROPEAN MARKET COMPARISON

2.1 Europe Telecom Maturity Index by tier
2.2 TMI versus GDP
2.3 Mobile and mobile broadband penetration
2.4 Fixed versus mobile broadband penetration

3 COUNTRY OVERVIEW

4 COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON THE TELECOM SECTOR

4.1 Economic considerations and responses
4.2 Mobile devices
4.3 Subscribers
4.4 Infrastructure

5 TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET

6 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

6.1 Law of Ukraine on Telecommunications
6.2 Regulatory authority
6.3 Fixed-line developments
6.4 Mobile network developments

7 MOBILE MARKET

7.1 Market analysis
7.2 Mobile statistics
7.3 Mobile infrastructure
7.4 Major mobile operators
7.5 Mobile content and applications

8 FIXED-LINE BROADBAND MARKET

8.1 Market analysis
8.2 Broadband statistics
8.3 Other fixed broadband services

9 DIGITAL ECONOMY

9.1 E-Health

10 FIXED NETWORK OPERATORS

10.1 Introduction
10.2 Ukrtelecom
10.3 Datagroup
10.4 Eurotranstelecom
10.5 Kyivstar
10.6 Vega
10.7 Wireless Local Loop (WLL) operators

11 TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE

11.1 Overview of the national telecom network
11.2 International infrastructure
11.3 Data centres

12 APPENDIX HISTORIC DATA

13 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

14 RELATED REPORTS

LIST OF TABLES, CHARTS AND EXHIBITS

Table 1 Top Level Country Statistics and Telco Authorities Ukraine 2020 (e)
Table 2 Telecom services revenue by sector (UAH billion) 2010 2020
Table 3 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2010 2025
Table 4 Development of mobile market revenue 2010 2020
Table 5 Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Table 6 Change in the number of Vodafone Ukraine's mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Table 7 Development of Vodafone Ukraine's revenue (UAH billion) 2010 2020
Table 8 Development of Vodafone Ukraine's capex 2015 2020
Table 9 Development of Vodafone Ukraine's annualised mobile ARPU 2015 2020
Table 10 Development of Kyivstar's mobile revenue ($ million) 2010 2020
Table 11 Development of Kyivstar's mobile revenue (UAH billion) 2012 2020
Table 12 Kyivstar ARPU 2010 2020
Table 13 Change in the number of Kyivstar's mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Table 14 Change in the number of Lifecell's mobile subscribers 2008 2020
Table 15 Change in the number of Lifecell's active mobile subscribers 2012 2020
Table 16 Development of Lifecell's financial data (million Turkish Lira) 2013 2020
Table 17 Development of Lifecell's financial data (UAH million) 2013 2020
Table 18 Internet access revenue (UAH billion) 2012 2020
Table 19 Growth in the number of internet users and penetration 2010 2018
Table 28 Growth in the number of fixed-line broadband and penetration 2010 2025
Table 20 Change in the number of cable broadband subscribers 2009 2018
Table 21 Ukrtelecom broadband subscribers 2011 2018
Table 22 Kyivstar broadband subscribers 2008 2020
Table 23 Kyivstar broadband revenue 2012 2020
Table 24 Kyivstar broadband ARPU 2010 2020
Table 25 Change in the number of DSL subscribers 2009 2018
Table 26 Growth in the number of fibre broadband subscribers 2009 2018
Table 27 Ukrtelecom financial data (UAH billion) 2008 2020
Table 28 Ukrtelecom broadband and fixed-line subscribers 2012 2018
Table 29 Kyivstar financial data ($ million) 2010 2020
Table 30 Development of Kyivstar's revenue by sector ($ million) 2010 2020
Table 31 Development of Kyivstar's financial data (UAH million) 2010 2020
Table 32 Development of Kyivstar's revenue by sector (UAH million) 2012 2020
Table 33 Change in the number of Kyivstar's subscribers by sector 2010 2020
Table 34 Public payphones in service 2014 2018
Table 35 Fixed lines in service - 2010 2020
Table 36 International bandwidth 2010 2017
Table 37 Historic Telecom services revenue by sector (UAH billion) 2006 -2009
Table 38 Historic Total mobile market revenue 2006 -2009
Table 39 Historic Mobile subscribers and penetration rate 1995 2009
Table 40 Historic Vodafone Ukraine Value Added Service revenue 2007 2015
Table 41 Historic Vodafone Ukraine subscribers 2004 2009
Table 42 Historic Vodafone Ukraine revenue 2004 2009
Table 43 Historic Vodafone Ukraine Value Added Service revenue 2007 2009
Table 44 Historic Vodafone Ukraine annualised ARPU 2004 2009
Table 45 Historic Kyivstar mobile revenue ($) 2007 2009
Table 46 Historic Kyivstar ARPU 2007 2009
Table 47 Historic Kyivstar subscribers 2007 2009
Table 48 Historic Lifecell subscribers 2008 2009
Table 49 Historic Lifecell financial data ($) 2007 2009
Table 50 Historic TriMob subscribers 2010 2013
Table 51 Historic Internet users and penetration rate 1999 2009
Table 52 Historic Fixed-line broadband subscribers and penetration rate 2005 2009
Table 53 Historic Kyivstar FttB subscribers 2010 2012
Table 54 Historic Kyivstar FttB revenue 2011 2013
Table 55 Historic Datagroup subscribers by type 2010 2012
Table 56 Historic Datagroup financial data (historic) 2009 2012
Table 57 Historic Kyivstar financial data 2007 2009
Table 58 Historic Kyivstar financial data by sector 2007 2009
Table 59 Historic Kyivstar subscribers by sector 2007 2009
Table 60 Historic Fixed lines in service - 1995 2009
Table 61 Historic International bandwidth 2004 2009
Chart 1 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Leaders (top tier)
Chart 2 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Challengers (middle tier)
Chart 3 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Emergents (bottom tier)
Chart 4 Overall view - Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita
Chart 5 Europe - mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 6 Scandinavia and Baltics: mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 7 Northern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 8 Southern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 9 Eastern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 10 Scandinavia and Baltics fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 11 Northern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 12 Southern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 13 Eastern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 14 Telecom revenue by sector 2010 2020
Chart 15 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2010 2025
Chart 16 Development of mobile market revenue 2010 2020
Chart 17 Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Chart 18 Change in the number of Vodafone Ukraine's mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 19 Development of Vodafone Ukraine's revenue (UAH billion) 2010 2020
Chart 20 Development of Vodafone Ukraine's capex 2015 2020
Chart 21 Development of Vodafone Ukraine's annualised mobile ARPU 2015 2020
Chart 22 Development of Kyivstar's mobile revenue ($ million) 2010 2020
Chart 23 Development of Kyivstar's mobile revenue (UAH billion) 2012 2020
Chart 24 Change in the number of Kyivstar's mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 25 Lifecell financial data (UAH million) 2013 2020
Chart 26 Internet access revenue 2012 2020
Chart 27 Growth in the number of internet users and penetration 2010 2018
Chart 29 Growth in the number of fixed-line broadband and penetration 2010 2025
Chart 30 Ukrtelecom financial data 2008 2020
Chart 31 Kyivstar financial data 2010 2020
Chart 32 Development of Kyivstar's revenue by sector ($ million) 2010 2020
Chart 33 Development of Kyivstar's financial data (UAH million) 2010 2020
Chart 34 Development of Kyivstar's revenue by sector (UAH million) 2012 2020
Chart 35 Fixed lines in service - 2010 2020
Exhibit 1 Generalised Market Characteristics by Market Segment


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