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Russia - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses

December 2020 | 235 pages | ID: R059AFF29BE3EN
BuddeComm

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The Russia - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses report includes all relevant BuddeComm research data and analysis. Covering trends and developments in telecommunications, mobile, internet, broadband, infrastructure and regulation. Please review the Executive Summary and Table of Contents for more details.

Executive Summary

Russia develops 5G spectrum program for 2021

The Russian telecom market is the largest in Europe, supported by a population of about 144 million. The market is dominated by the western regions where the main cities and economic centres are concentrated. All sectors have been liberalised, with competition most prevalent in Moscow and St Petersburg, the two largest regional markets. The incumbent telco Rostelecom, which absorbed most of the regional players, in late 2019 acquired the remaining 55% of Tele2 Russia which it did not already own. The deal strengthened the company's ability to compete in the offering a full range of bundled services.

Telcos continue to deploy and modernise fixed-line network infrastructure to offer improved broadband services as well as a range of IP-delivered content. As a result, the fibre broadband sector has shown considerable growth, supported by the government's program to extend the reach of broadband to outlying regions.

The mobile market is on the cusp of the 5G era, though there have been delays in auctioning suitable spectrum. The country's MNO have trialled 5G using spectrum in the higher bands, though spectrum assets in the 700MHz band and the 3.4GHz band, secured for 5G use elsewhere in Europe, have not been made available in Russia.

Mobile penetration is high, though this is partly due to the popularity of multiple SIM card use. There is pressure on operator revenue from the poor economic climate, lower pricing resulting from intense competition, regulatory measures introduced in 2018 which saw the end of roaming charges, and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

This report provides an overview of Russia's fixed-line telecom and IT markets. It includes information on key regulatory developments, data on fixed-line networks, and an assessment of telcos' financial and operating performance. The report also reviews the mobile market, covering the major mobile operators as well as technologies and mobile data, content and applications, and a variety of updated financial and operational statistics. In addition, the report assesses developments in the fixed broadband sector, assessing the migration from DSL to fibre and the potential for DOCSIS3.1. The report includes a range or subscribers forecasts covering the fixed-line, mobile, mobile broadband and fixed broadband segments.

BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.

On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.

Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.

The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.

Key developments:
  • Government determines that only domestic-made equipment can be used in 5G networks from 2024;
  • Four MNOs sign agreement to cooperate in developing 5G networks;
  • Government proposes a single 5G network operator for the 4.5GHz band;
  • MegaFon providing 1Gb/s data rate on its LTE network, enters talks for sale and leaseback of tower infrastructure;
  • Domestic on-net roaming charges ended;
  • ER-Telecom to upgrade entire network to a 1Gb/s service by 2026;
Report update includes the regulator's market data to June 2020, telcos' financial and operating data to Q3 2020, Telecom Maturity Index charts and analyses, assessment of the global impact of Covid-19 on the telecoms sector, recent market developments.

Companies mentioned in this report:

MegaFon, Tele2 Russia, Skylink, VEON, Volga Telecom, SMARTS Group, Uralsvyazinform, MTS, TransTeleCom, ER-Telecom, MTS, Rostelecom, PeterStar, Synterra Telecom, Comstar, Summa Telecom, MetroMAX, Comstar, Yota, Virgin Connect, Enforta, Golden Telecom
1 KEY STATISTICS

2 REGIONAL EUROPEAN MARKET COMPARISON

2.1 Europe Telecom Maturity Index by tier
2.2 TMI versus GDP
2.3 Mobile and mobile broadband penetration
2.4 Fixed versus mobile broadband penetration

3 COUNTRY OVERVIEW

4 COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON THE TELECOM SECTOR

4.1 Economic considerations and responses
4.2 Mobile devices
4.3 Subscribers
4.4 Infrastructure

5 TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET

5.1 Overview and statistics

6 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

6.1 Telecommunications Law 2003
6.2 Regulatory authority
6.3 Fixed-line developments
6.4 Broadband market developments
6.5 Mobile network developments

7 MOBILE MARKET

7.1 Market analysis
7.2 Mobile statistics
7.3 Mobile infrastructure
7.4 Narrowband IoT (NB-IoT)
7.5 M2M networks
7.6 Major mobile operators
7.7 Mobile content and applications

8 FIXED-LINE BROADBAND MARKET

8.1 Introduction and statistical overview
8.2 Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC) networks
8.3 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) networks
8.4 Fibre-to-the-Premises (FttP)
8.5 Other fixed broadband services

9 FIXED NETWORK OPERATORS

9.1 Introduction
9.2 Svyazinvest
9.3 Rostelecom
9.4 Central Telegraph
9.5 VEON
9.6 Multiregional Transit Telecom
9.7 TransTeleCom (TTK)
9.8 PeterStar
9.9 ER-Telecom
9.10 MTS

10 TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE

10.1 Overview of the national telecom network
10.2 International networks
10.3 Data centres

11 APPENDIX HISTORIC DATA

12 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

13 RELATED REPORTS

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Top Level Country Statistics and Telco Authorities - Russia 2020 (e)
Table 2 Increase in telecom market revenue 2010 2020
Table 3 Change in the share of telecom market revenue by type 2016 2020
Table 4 Growth in the number of mobile number portings 2015 2019
Table 5 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Table 6 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration in Moscow, St Petersburg 2006 2019
Table 7 Change in market share of subscribers by operator 2010 2019
Table 8 Decline in in mobile service revenue 2010 2020
Table 9 Forecast 5G subscribers and coverage 2020 2025
Table 10 LTE launch dates by operator
Table 11 Growth in the number of mobile base stations by technology (thousand) - 2013 2020
Table 12 Mobile ground base towers in service - 2015 2019
Table 13 Development of MegaFon's LTE infrastructure - 2014 2019
Table 14 Decline in the number of SMS sent 2011 2020
Table 15 Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Table 16 Development of MTS's mobile financial data (Russia, RUB) 2009 2020
Table 17 Development of MTS's quarterly mobile financial data (Russia, RUB) 2014 2020
Table 18 Development of MTS capex (Russia, RUB) 2010 2020
Table 19 Development of MTS's operating profit and margin (Russia, RUB) 2010 2020
Table 20 Growth in the number of MTS Russia's mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Table 21 Change in MTS Russia's mobile voice and data traffic 2014 2020
Table 22 Change in the number of VEON's mobile subscribers (Russia) 2009 2020
Table 23 VEON ARPU and MOU (Russia) 2010 2020
Table 24 Development of VEON's mobile financial data by type ($ million) 2010 2020
Table 25 Development of MegaFon's consolidated financial data 2010 2020
Table 26 Change in MegaFon's capex 2009 2020
Table 27 Development of MegaFon's mobile revenue 2010 2020
Table 28 Growth in the number of MegaFon's mobile subscribers 2009 2020
Table 29 Development of MegaFon's mobile data traffic 2012 2019
Table 30 Growth in MegaFon's mobile data revenue and subscriber base 2012 2020
Table 31 Rostelecom mobile subscribers 2017 2019
Table 32 Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Table 33 Development in the number of cable broadband subscribers 2011 2020
Table 34 Development in the number of DSL subscribers 2011 2020
Table 35 Change in the number of Rostelecom's fixed broadband subscribers by platform 2008 2020
Table 36 Growth in the number of MTS's fixed broadband subscribers 2009 2020
Table 37 Growth in the number of VEON's fixed broadband subscribers 2008 2020
Table 38 Development of VEON's fixed broadband revenue ($ million) 2010 2020
Table 39 Development of VEON's fixed broadband ARPU 2016 2020
Table 40 Growth in the number of Rostelecom's fibre broadband subscribers 2011 2020
Table 41 Growth in the number of MGTS's GPON subscribers 2014 2020
Table 42 Growth in the number of VEON's FttB subscribers 2010 2020
Table 43 Development of VEON's FttB revenue 2010 2020
Table 44 Growth in the number of fibre broadband subscribers 2011 2020
Table 45 Satellite broadband subscribers 2011 2020
Table 46 Development of Rostelecom's financials (post-merger) 2008 2020
Table 47 Change in the number of Rostelecom's subscriber by type 2008 2020
Table 48 Development of VEON Group' financial data ($ billion) 2010 2020
Table 49 Development of VEON's domestic financial data ($ billion) 2010 2020
Table 50 Change in the number of VEON's domestic subscribers (million) 2010 2020
Table 51 Growth in ER-Telecom's revenue 2014 2020
Table 52 Development of MTS's financials (Russia, RUB) 2010 2020
Table 53 Development of MTS's fixed-line subscribers by type 2008 2020
Table 54 Decline in the number of fixed lines in service and teledensity 2010 2025
Table 55 Increase in international internet bandwidth 2010 2019
Table 56 Historic - Fixed lines in service and teledensity 1998 2009
Table 57 Historic - Telecom sector revenue (RUB million) 2003 2010
Table 58 Historic - MTS financial data (Russia, $) 2008 2012
Table 59 Historic - Rostelecom (pre-merger) financial data 2008 2010
Table 60 Historic - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate 1995 2009
Table 61 Historic - Mobile service revenue 2003 2009
Table 62 Historic - Mobile VAS market share by operator 2007 2015
Table 63 Historic - MegaFon mobile revenue 2005 2009
Table 64 Historic - Development of MTS's fixed-line subscribers by type 2008 2009
Table 65 Historic - MTS mobile financial data (Russia, RUB) 2004 2009
Table 66 Historic - MTS mobile financial data (old style, Russia, $) 2004 2012
Table 67 Historic - Tele2 financial data 2007 2012
Table 68 Historic - MTS Russia MOU, churn and annualised ARPU 2001 2015
Table 69 Historic - MTS Russia annualised VAS 2004 2015
Table 70 Historic - MTS Russia annualised VAS revenue by type 2010 2015
Table 71 Historic - M-commerce revenue 2011 2015
Table 72 Historic - Rostelecom mobile subscribers 2010 2014
Table 73 Historic - Rostelecom mobile revenue 2008 2014
Table 74 Historic - Tele2's mobile subscribers 2007 2017
Table 75 Historic - VEON mobile subscribers (Russia) 2005 2009
Table 76 Historic - MegaFon base stations in use 2013 2015
Table 77 Historic - SMARTS Group subscribers 2009 2015
Table 78 Historic - SMARTS Group financial data 2006 2013
Table 79 Historic - Internet users and penetration rate 1999 2015
Table 80 Historic - Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration 2003 2009
Table 81 Historic - VEON ARPU and MOU (Russia) 2007 2009
Table 82 Historic - Increase in international internet bandwidth 2006 2009
Table 83 Historic - Development of VEON (Russia) financial data 2007 2009
Table 84 Historic - Development of VEON Group' financial data 2007 2009
Table 85 Historic - Rostelecom's subscriber by type 2008 2009
Table 86 Historic - Development of Rostelecom's financials (post-merger) 2008 2009
Table 87 Historic - Growth in the number of VEON's fixed broadband subscribers 2008 2009
Table 88 Historic - Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration (thousand) 2003 2009
Table 89 Historic - Development of MegaFon's consolidated financial data 2005 2009
Chart 1 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Leaders (top tier)
Chart 2 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Challengers (middle tier)
Chart 3 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Emergents (bottom tier)
Chart 4 Overall view - Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita
Chart 5 Europe - mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 6 Scandinavia and Baltics: mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 7 Northern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 8 Southern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 9 Eastern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 10 Scandinavia and Baltics fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 11 Northern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 12 Southern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 13 Eastern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 14 Increase in telecom market revenue 2010 2020
Chart 15 Change in the share of telecom market revenue by type 2016 2020
Chart 16 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Chart 17 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration in Moscow, St Petersburg 2010 2019
Chart 18 Change in market share of subscribers by operator 2010 2019
Chart 19 Decline in in mobile service revenue 2010 2020
Chart 20 Growth in the number of mobile base stations by technology - 2013 2020
Chart 21 Growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Chart 22 Development of MTS's mobile financial data (Russia, RUB) 2010 2020
Chart 23 Development of MTS's quarterly mobile financial data (Russia, RUB) 2014 2019
Chart 24 Development of MTS capex (Russia, RUB) 2010 2020
Chart 25 Development of MTS's operating profit and margin (Russia, RUB) 2010 2020
Chart 26 Growth in the number of MTS Russia's mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 27 Change in the number of VEON's mobile subscribers (Russia) 2010 2020
Chart 28 Development of VEON's mobile financial data by type (Russia) 2010 2020
Chart 29 Development of MegaFon's consolidated financial data 2010 2020
Chart 30 Change in MegaFon's capex 2009 2020
Chart 31 Development of MegaFon's mobile revenue 2010 2020
Chart 32 Growth in the number of MegaFon's mobile subscribers 2009 2020
Chart 33 Growth in MegaFon's mobile data revenue and subscriber base 2009 2020
Chart 34 Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Chart 35 Development in the number of cable broadband subscribers 2011 2020
Chart 36 Development in the number of DSL subscribers 2011 2020
Chart 37 Change in the number of Rostelecom's fixed broadband subscribers by platform 2010 2020
Chart 38 Growth in the number of MTS's fixed broadband subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 39 Growth in the number of VEON's fixed broadband subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 40 Development of VEON's fixed broadband revenue 2010 2020
Chart 41 Development of VEON's fixed broadband ARPU 2016 2020
Chart 42 Growth in the number of Rostelecom's fibre broadband subscribers 2011 2020
Chart 43 Growth in the number of MGTS GPON subscribers 2014 2020
Chart 44 Growth in the number of VEON's FttB subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 45 Development of VEON's FttB revenue 2010 2020
Chart 46 Growth in the number of fibre broadband subscribers 2011 2020
Chart 47 Development of Rostelecom's financials (post-merger) 2010 2020
Chart 48 Change in the number of Rostelecom's subscriber by type 2010 2020
Chart 49 Development of VEON Group' financial data 2010 2020
Chart 50 Development of VEON's domestic financial data ($ billion) 2010 2020
Chart 51 Change in the number of VEON's domestic subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 52 Growth in ER-Telecom's revenue 2014 2020
Chart 53 Development of MTS's financials (Russia, RUB) 2010 2020
Chart 54 Development of MTS's fixed-line subscribers by type 2008 2020
Chart 55 Decline in the number of fixed lines in service and teledensity 2010 2025
Chart 56 Increase in international internet bandwidth 2010 2019
Exhibit 1 Generalised Market Characteristics by Market Segment


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