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Nepal - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses

September 2020 | 100 pages | ID: ND5BABFB7206EN
BuddeComm

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High-speed broadband market gains momentum in Nepal

Over the years, efforts to expand the telecom sector in Nepal have met with many challenges. The fixed line market in Nepal remains underdeveloped. A major reason for this is due to the dominance of the mobile segment. Overall penetration reached only 2.8% in 2019.

The market is predicted to decrease slightly over the next five years to 2024 as the mobile segment continues to grow for both voice and data/broadband usage.

Fixed broadband penetration in Nepal remains very low mainly due to a limited number of fixed lines and the subsequent dominance of the mobile platform. Also, the declining number of fixed lines is restricting more widespread development of fixed broadband. However, the market has grown strongly over the past five years from a very small base with penetration increasing from 0.9% in 2014 to 3.9% in 2019.

Fibre-optic networks are developing all over the country under private and public funding. The growing demand for high speed internet will strongly push the development of fixed broadband. Over the next five years to 2024 strong growth is expected to continue. Fixed broadband penetration is predicted to reach 10% by 2024.

Between 2018 and 2019 numerous ISP announced contracts with Nokia to deploy fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) in the country. This is in line with the government's vision of a digital society, whereby 90% of the population will have access to broadband services by 2020.

The NTA announced the launch of the first Nepalese satellite in 2022. Thales Alenia Space will build the national satellite telecom system.

Nepal's mobile market is now relatively developed and has experienced extraordinarily strong growth over the last years. Slower growth is predicted over the next five years to 2024. The market will be constrained from higher growth due to an already high penetration rate.

In November 2019, the Nepal Telecommunication Authority (NTA) took a drastic decision and revoked the licence of Nepal Satellite Telecom. The company has NPR1 billion in unpaid fees and other liabilities to the NTA. This is the first step in the fight between NTA and the telecommunication operators , as they all have unpaid fees.

Nepal has seen a very rapid increase in mobile broadband penetration over the past seven years driven by increasing numbers of 3G and 4G mobile subscribers. However, the mobile broadband market is still at an early stage of development with penetration well below most other Asian countries. Strong growth is predicted over the next five years to 2024.

BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.

On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.

Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.

The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.

Key developments:
  • Government facilitates e-learning with free internet access and data packages for students;
  • Nepal rises 11 places in international broadband speeds rankings;
  • Nepal Telecom secures additional 1800MHz spectrum, aims to close down CDMA network by July 2021;
  • Nepal sees rapid increase in mobile broadband penetration;
  • Nepal Satellite Telecom has licence revoked;
  • Nepal's first national satellite to be launched in 2022;
  • Report update includes an assessment of the global impact of COVID-19 on the telecoms sector.
Companies mentioned in this report

Nepal Telecom, NDCL, United Telecom (UTL), Ncell, Telia Company, STM Telecom, Nepal Satellite Telecom (NSTPL), Smart Telecom (STPL)
1 KEY STATISTICS

2 COUNTRY OVERVIEW

3 COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON THE TELECOM SECTOR

3.1 Economic considerations and responses
3.2 Mobile devices
3.3 Subscribers
3.4 Infrastructure

4 TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET

4.1 Market overview and analysis
4.2 Regional Asian Market Comparison

5 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

5.1 Regulatory authority
5.2 Fixed-line developments
5.3 Mobile sector developments

6 MOBILE MARKET

6.1 Mobile statistics
6.2 Mobile broadband
6.3 Nepal Satellite Telecom (NSPTL)
6.4 Major mobile operators

7 FIXED-LINE BROADBAND MARKET

7.1 Background
7.2 ISP market
7.3 Fixed broadband statistics
7.4 Fixed-line broadband technologies

8 DIGITAL ECONOMY

8.1 e-Government
8.2 e-ID cards

9 FIXED NETWORK OPERATORS

9.1 Major operators
9.2 Nepal Telecom
9.3 United Telecom (UTL)
9.4 Nepal Satellite Telecom (NSPTL)
9.5 Smart Telecom (STPL)
9.6 STM Telecom

10 TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE

10.1 Overview of the national telecom network
10.2 Fixed line statistics and market forecast
10.3 Fibre networks
10.4 International infrastructure

11 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

12 RELATED REPORTS

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Top Level Country Statistics and Telco Authorities - Nepal 2020 (e)
Table 2 Licences issued for telecom services Q3 2019
Table 3 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (with Forecast) 2009 2024
Table 4 Growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2012 2024
Table 5 3G/4G subscribers (million) 2018 2019 Q2
Table 6 Nepal Satellite Telecom (NSPTL)- mobile subscribers 2018
Table 7 Mobile operators and systems
Table 8 Mobile operators and market share 2019 Q2
Table 9 Mobile broadband subscribers by operator, 3G 4G and EVDO 2019 Q2
Table 10 Mobile operators and market share - 2018
Table 11 Historic - Mobile operators and market share - 2017
Table 12 Historic - Mobile operators and market share - 2016
Table 13 Nepal Telecom (NDCL) - mobile subscribers 2006 2019 Q2
Table 14 Ncell - mobile subscribers 2006 2019 Q3
Table 15 Smart Telecom- mobile subscribers 2016 2019 Q2
Table 16 Fixed Broadband Subscribers (with Forecast) 2009 - 2024
Table 17 Data and Internet subscribers by technology 2016 2019 Q3
Table 18 Fixed Broadband (wireless) subscribers by operator 2019 Q3
Table 19 NDCL - Fixed subscribers wireline and WLL Q3 2019
Table 20 Fixed subscribers by operator wireline and WLL 2018
Table 21 Historic - Fixed subscribers by operator wireline and WLL 2017
Table 22 Historic - Fixed subscribers by operator wireline and WLL 2016
Table 23 Nepal Telecom's (NDCL) fixed subscribers wireline and WLL 2011 2019
Table 24 UTL's subscribers limited mobility and WLL 2011 - 2018
Table 25 Fixed line subscriptions and penetration 2009 - 2019
Table 26 Fixed-line subscribers wireline and WLL 2010 - 2019
Table 27 Internet bandwidth capacity 2010 - 2019
Table 28 Historic - Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate 1999 - 2011
Table 29 Historic - Internet bandwidth capacity 2001 - 2009
Table 30 Historic - STM's subscribers limited mobility and fixed-line 2013 - 2016
Table 31 Historic - fixed-lines in service and teledensity 1995 - 2005
Chart 1 Mobile, Mobile Broadband & Fixed Broadband Penetration 2019; 2024
Chart 2 Asian Telecoms Maturity Index by Market Category
Chart 3 Asian Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita
Chart 4 Telecoms Maturity Index Central Asia
Chart 5 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (with Forecast) 2009 - 2024
Chart 6 Growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2012 2024
Chart 7 3G/4G subscribers (million) 2018 2019 Q2
Chart 8 4G subscribers market share 2018 2019 Q2
Chart 9 Nepal Telecom - mobile and 4G subscribers (million) 2018 2019 Q2
Chart 10 Ncell - mobile and 4G subscribers (million) 2018 2019 Q2
Chart 11 Ncell - ARPU 2005 2019 (e)
Chart 12 STPL - subscribers and 4G subscribers (million) 2018 2019 Q2
Chart 13 Fixed Broadband Subscribers (with Forecast) - 2009 - 2024
Chart 14 Fixed line subscriptions and penetration 2009 - 2019
Chart 15 Current mobile subscriber and mobile broadband penetration rates in countries to benefit from the Kacific-1 satellite
Exhibit 1 Key Market Characteristics by Market Segment
Exhibit 2 Central Asia - Key Characteristics of Telecoms Markets by Country
Exhibit 3 Level of competition by market segment


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