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Kazakhstan - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses

June 2020 | 106 pages | ID: K15DB1A3DDFEN
BuddeComm

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The Kazakhstan - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses report includes all BuddeComm research data and analysis on this country. Covering trends and developments in telecommunications, mobile, internet, broadband, infrastructure and regulation.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Digital Kazakhstan program for rural connectivity making progress

Kazakhstan has developed one of the most advanced telecoms sectors in Central Asia, supported by the largest economy in the region which itself has benefited from abundant oil and natural gas reserves.

The fixed broadband market in Kazakhstan remains relatively underdeveloped, due to the dominance of the mobile broadband sector, which is in turn driven by the strong mobile sector.

The number of fixed telephone lines in Kazakhstan is declining steadily, again related to the preference for the mobile platform for voice services. The rate of decline began to accelerate in 2015, and further decline is anticipated in coming years.

Kazakhstan’s mobile market was once highly competitive but has since been consolidated and is effectively a duopoly between Kazakhtelecom and Beeline Kazakhstan. Both operators have developed extensive LTE infrastructure to support mobile broadband services and have trialled 5G though commercial launches are not anticipated until 2021.

BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.

On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.

Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.

The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.

Key developments:
  • Kazakhstan prepares for 5G launch in 2021;
  • Digital Kazakhstan program for rural connectivity making progress;
  • Kcell and Beeline sign spectrum sharing agreement;
  • Government signs up to ITU-sponsored GIGA initiative;
  • Investors announce strategy to develop the Caspian Digital Hub Kazakh-Azerbaijani cable project;
  • Kcell launches pilot IoT agriculture service utilising its LTE and NB-IoT networks;
  • Report update includes the regulator’s market data to May 2020, Telecom Maturity Index charts and analyses, assessment of the global impact of COVID-19 on the telecoms sector, recent market developments.
1 KEY STATISTICS

2 REGIONAL ASIAN MARKET COMPARISON

3 COUNTRY OVERVIEW

4 COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON THE TELECOM SECTOR

4.1 Economic considerations and responses
4.2 Mobile devices
4.3 Subscribers
4.4 Infrastructure

5 TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET

5.1 Market overview and analysis

6 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

6.1 Regulatory authority
6.2 Fixed-line developments
6.3 Mobile network developments

7 MOBILE MARKET

7.1 Mobile statistics
7.2 Mobile infrastructure
7.3 Mobile broadband
7.4 Major mobile operators
7.5 MNVOs

8 FIXED-LINE BROADBAND MARKET

8.1 Fixed broadband statistics
8.2 Fibre-to-the-Building (FttB) networks
8.3 Other fixed broadband services

9 DIGITAL ECONOMY

9.1 Government Digital Program Investment
9.2 e-government

10 FIXED NETWORK OPERATORS

10.1 Kazakhtelecom
10.2 Next Generation Networks (NGNs)
10.3 Astel
10.4 Ducat (formerly Kazintel)
10.5 KazInformTelecom (KIT)
10.6 Transtelecom

11 TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE

11.1 Overview of the national telecom network
11.2 Fibre networks
11.3 International infrastructure
11.4 Specific IT developments
11.5 Smart Infrastructure

12 APPENDIX HISTORIC DATA

13 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

14 RELATED REPORTS

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Top Level Country Statistics and Telco Authorities 2020 (e)
Table 2 Development of telecom sector revenue 2010 - 2020
Table 3 Development of telecom sector revenue by type 2010 - 2020
Table 4 Growth in the number of mobile numbers ported 2016 - 2019
Table 5 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2025
Table 6 Percentage of population covered by type of mobile network
Table 7 Growth in the number of Kcell's LTE subscribers 2017 - 2020
Table 8 Growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2025
Table 9 Change in the number of Beeline Kazakhstan's subscribers 2010 2020
Table 10 Development of Beeline Kazakhstan's mobile revenue 2012 2020
Table 11 Development of Beeline Kazakhstan's financial data 2010 2020
Table 12 Change in the number of Kcell's mobile subscribers - 2010 2020
Table 13 Change in Kcell's annualised mobile ARPU - 2010 2020
Table 14 Development of Kcell's financial data - 2010 2020
Table 15 Development of Kcell's mobile revenue by type - 2010 2020
Table 16 Kazakhtelecom (Tele2 Kazakhstan / Altel) mobile subscribers 2010 2019
Table 17 Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Table 18 Development of Beeline Kazakhstan's fixed-line revenue 2012 2020
Table 19 Growth in the number of Beeline Kazakhstan's fixed broadband subscribers 2012 2020
Table 20 Development of Kazakhtelecom's financial data 2014 2020
Table 21 Development of Kazakhtelecom's ARPU 2012 2019
Table 22 Development of Kazakhtelecom's fixed-line subscriber base 2011 2019
Table 23 Decline in the number of fixed-line connections and penetration 2010 2025
Table 24 Decline in the number of fixed line connections in rural areas 2010 2019
Table 25 Decline in fixed line voice traffic 2010 2019
Table 26 Increase in international internet bandwidth 2010 2018
Table 27 Historic - Mobile subscribers and penetration 1996 2009
Table 28 Historic - Beeline mobile subscribers 2006 2009
Table 29 Historic - Beeline - mobile ARPU 2006 2014
Table 30 Historic - Kar-Tel (Beeline) fixed broadband subscribers 2008 - 2013
Table 31 Historic - Kcell mobile subscribers - 2006 2009
Table 32 Historic - Altel mobile subscribers 2009 2013
Table 33 Historic - Altel mobile ARPU 2010 2013
Table 34 Historic - Kazakhtelecom's mobile broadband subscribers 2010 - 2014
Table 35 Historic - International Internet bandwidth capacity 2001 2009
Table 36 Historic - Tele2 Kazakhstan / Altel mobile revenue 2010 2017
Chart 1 Asian Telecoms Maturity Index by Market Category
Chart 2 Asian Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita
Chart 3 Telecoms Maturity Index Central Asia
Chart 4 Development of telecom sector revenue 2010 - 2020
Chart 5 Development of telecom sector revenue by type 2010 - 2020
Chart 6 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2025
Chart 7 Growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2025
Chart 8 Change in the number of Beeline Kazakhstan's subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 9 Development of Beeline Kazakhstan's mobile revenue 2012 2020
Chart 10 Development of Beeline Kazakhstan's financial data 2010 2020
Chart 11 Change in the number of Kcell's mobile subscribers - 2010 2020
Chart 12 Change in Kcell's annualised mobile ARPU - 2010 2020
Chart 13 Development of Kcell's financial data - 2010 2020
Chart 14 Development of Kcell's mobile revenue by type - 2010 2020
Chart 15 Development of Kcell's mobile revenue by type - 2010 2019
Chart 16 Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 2025
Chart 17 Development of Beeline Kazakhstan's fixed-line revenue 2012 2020
Chart 18 Growth in the number of Beeline Kazakhstan's fixed broadband subscribers 2012 2020
Chart 19 Development of Kazakhtelecom's financial data 2014 2020
Chart 20 Development of Kazakhtelecom's ARPU 2012 2019
Chart 21 Development of Kazakhtelecom's fixed-line subscriber base 2010 2019
Chart 22 Decline in the number of fixed-line connections and penetration 2010 2025
Chart 23 Decline in the number of fixed line connections in rural areas 2010 2019
Chart 24 Decline in fixed line voice traffic 2010 2019
Exhibit 1 Key Market Characteristics by Market Segment
Exhibit 2 Central Asia -Key Characteristics of Telecoms Markets by Country

Although growth slowed significantly in 2009, Kazakhstan has continued to experience a healthy telecom market and coming into 2013 it included a mobile penetration of 175% and an impressive figure of more than 50 internet users per 100 people. By early 2013 mobile broadband services comprised around one quarter of the total mobile market as this service platform continued on a rapid growth path. The country’s strong telecom market has come about on the back of a growing economy (despite the more recent setbacks) and a program of positive regulatory reform within the telecom sector. Legislation adopted in 2004 largely laid the foundation for liberalisation and development of the country’s telecom industry and put an end to the monopoly enjoyed by Kazakhtelecom, the state-controlled telecom operator.

The rapid and successful development of telecommunications in the country encouraged a number of foreign companies – both service providers and suppliers - to establish a presence in this emerging market. Since 1992, international operators and manufacturers have been active in Kazakhstan in providing services and installing state-of-the-art equipment, especially as part of the country’s international telecom network. Companies such as Motorola, Lucent, Siemens, Alcatel, Nokia, Daewoo and Nortel Networks have all been active in the market. Recognising the long-term potential of this market, many foreign telecom companies have been looking to invest and form partnerships with local telecom enterprises.

By 2005 four private operators had been licensed to provide international and long-distance services in competition with the incumbent Kazakhtelecom. They were state-railway subsidiary TransTelecom, KazTransCom (a subsidiary of the national oil company), Ducat and Astel. Up to 1,500 new telecom service providers of various kinds had been licensed by 2005.

Kazakhstan has a relatively energetic fixed-line market with six operators providing fixed-line telephone services to about 4.5 million subscribers. There had been long waiting lists for fixed-line telephone services over the years. Despite the opening up of the market the bulk of the country’s fixed services (93% in 2012) were being provided by Kazakhtelecom.

In the meantime, and by contrast, the country’s mobile market has been booming since 2000 (no doubt boosted to some extent by the long delays in obtaining fixed-line services). The number of mobile services had exceeded fixed-lines by 2004 and has raced on to surprisingly high levels of penetration. Demand for mobile services was so strong that in 2006 that the government went on to auction a third GSM licence (and fourth mobile operator licence), which was duly awarded to NeoTelecom, a subsidiary of Kazakhtelecom. NeoTelecom then launched its mobile service in 2007.

Of special note has been the recent healthy growth in internet activity in Kazakhstan, with the move to broadband access in particular taking place at a rapid rate. Fixed broadband subscribers as a proportion of the population had reached an encouraging level by 2012, with the market expected to continue its current expansion. By the same stage, however, fixed broadband was being completely overshadowed by the rapid mobile broadband expansion. (Note: It was difficult to obtain a full statistical picture of the internet market in Kazakhstan, with indicators often not being unavailable or information conflicting.)



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