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Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts

November 2018 | 94 pages | ID: A84F75AB49FEEN
BuddeComm

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Mobile broadband and Fibre-to-the Node (FttN) are driving the Australian telco marketWhile fixed-line telephony traffic and revenue are declining, the mobile broadband market is growing steadily. Fixed-line broadband on the copper network is also declining as fibre and fixed-wireless broadband services become more widely available, through the NBN’s multi-technology architecture, with its emphasis on VDSL with Fibre-to-the Node (FttN). In time, much of the voice traffic will be data packet via technologies such as Voice over Long-term Evolution (VoLTE).

The release of spectrum for LTE mobile broadband use, as well as increased uptake by consumers and businesses, is helping to offset the decline in revenue from fixed-line services, although as user uptake increases so will the amount of bandwidth consumed.

Other sources of revenue for the major telcos include broadband, data and IP access, business services and applications, cloud computing and other telco services. New revenue streams from fibre and cloud computing in particular are assisting the telcos to compensate for losses from revenues from traditional revenue streams.

Revenue for mobile operators in recent years has been characterised by the continuing take up of services based on LTE technology, and to the rising proportion of mobile data to overall revenue.

By 2018, competition among operators is having a braking effect on ARPU however ARPU growth from mobile data services going forward is offsetting declines in voice ARPU. Pricing competition and market saturation is eroding voice revenue, while the continued substitution of cheaper OTT services for mobile SMS messages and the SMS is also eroding SMS revenue.

For all operators, price competition combined with a focus on managing their mobile businesses as they adapt to new technologies being brought into play, have led to considerable pressure in recent years.

The second-tier market continues to grow strongly although this has eased off to some degree during 2018. Developments in this market have been dominated by industry consolidation a process that is set to continue over coming years, in particular from Vocus and TPG, both of which continue to grow through increased scale via mergers and acquisitions.

This report provides statistics on revenue and market forecasts as well as analyses for the Australian telecommunications market by major providers and according to telecommunications service. The telecoms service market is segmented according to the major providers Telstra, Optus, Vodafone, as well by second-tier market providers including Vocus- M2, TPG and Macquarie Telecom.

Key Developments
  • The mobile broadband market is predicted to grow steadily over the next five years to 2023.
  • Fixed-line DSL broadband is declining as fibre and fixed-wireless broadband services become more widely available.
  • The second-tier market continues to grow strongly although eased off to some degree during 2018.
  • Competition among operators is having a braking effect on ARPU.
  • Very slow mobile subscriber growth is predicted over the next five years to 2023.
  • All three Australian mobile operators are now investing billions of dollars in their networks annually.
Key companies mentioned in this report:

Vodafone, 3, VHA, Optus, Telstra, iiNet, TPG, Vocus, Macquarie Telecom
1. OVERALL TELECOMS INDUSTRY

1.1 Total telco market by major service
  1.1.1 Market analysis
  1.1.2 Revenue statistics and market forecast
1.2 Total telco market by major provider
  1.2.1 Market analysis
  1.2.2 Revenue statistics and market forecast by major provider
1.3 2nd-Tier telcos
  1.3.1 Market analysis
  1.3.2 Revenues statistics and market forecast 2nd Tier Telcos
1.4 Fixed line statistics

2. MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS, REVENUES AND FORECASTS

2.1 Mobile subscriber statistics
  2.1.1 Total mobile subscribers and market forecast
  2.1.2 Mobile operator – subscriber market shares and growth
  2.1.3 Prepaid and postpaid subscribers by operator
  2.1.4 2G, 3G and 4G subscribers
  2.1.5 Wholesale market
  2.1.6 International comparisons
2.2 Mobile services revenues, forecast and market analysis
2.3 Operator revenue statistics overview
  2.3.1 Revenue by major operator
  2.3.2 Revenue market share and trends by operator
  2.3.3 Revenue trends by service
2.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
  2.4.1 Overview of ARPU
  2.4.2 Blended ARPU
  2.4.3 Prepaid and postpaid ARPU

3. MOBILE BROADBAND

3.1 Mobile broadband statistics

4. SMARTPHONES, TABLETS AND HANDSET MARKET

4.1 Smartphone usage statistics
4.2 Smartphone and tablet shipments
4.3 Handset supplier market shares
4.4 Tablets
4.5 Device statistics

5. FIXED BROADBAND MARKET

5.1 Fixed broadband – subscriber statistics and forecasts
  5.1.1 Total market statistics
  5.1.2 Market share statistics by platform
  5.1.3 Market share statistics by provider
  5.1.4 Internet usage trends
  5.1.5 Household usage survey - 2018
  5.1.6 Fixed broadband subscriber Forecast
5.2 Other broadband statistics
  5.2.1 Broadband speeds
  5.2.2 Broadband traffic
5.3 Australian business broadband market
5.4 DSL infrastructure

6. NATIONAL BROADBAND NETWORK

6.1 NBN market statistics
  6.1.1 Revenue statistics
  6.1.2 Subscriptions
  6.1.3 Broadband market share by provider
  6.1.4 FTTP Statistics

7. PAY TV AND FREE-TO-AIR TV

7.1 Pay TV
  7.1.1 Subscriber statistics
  7.1.2 Consumer penetration statistics
  7.1.3 Usage statistics
  7.1.4 Revenue statistics
  7.1.5 Advertising revenue
  7.1.6 ARPU and churn statistics
7.2 Free-to-Air usage statistics – 2017 - 2018

8. VIDEO STREAMING

8.1 2018 Statistics

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 – Total telecoms market, retail revenue and forecast – 2007 - 2023
Table 2 – Total telecoms market – retail revenue by service – 2007 - 2020
Table 3 – Total telecoms market – annual growth by service – 2008 - 2020
Table 4 – Total telecoms market – market share by service – 2007 - 2020
Table 5 – Historic - Total telecoms market – retail revenue by service – 2001 - 2015
Table 6 – Historic - Total telecoms market – annual retail growth by service – 2001 - 2015
Table 7 – Historic - Total telecoms market – retail market share by service – 2000 - 2015
Table 8 – Total telecoms revenue by major provider / category – 2014 - 2020
Table 9 – Total telecoms revenue annual growth by major provider / category – 2015 - 2020
Table 10 – Total telecoms revenue market share by major provider / category – 2014 - 2020
Table 11 – Historic - Total telecoms revenues by major providers – 2000 - 2013
Table 12 – Historic - Total telecoms revenues by smaller operators, and total – 2005 - 2013
Table 13 – Second-tier telcos – total revenue and annual change – 2010 - 2020
Table 14 – Second-tier telcos – revenue ($million) by major provider – 2014 - 2018
Table 15 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by provider – 2010 - 2014
Table 16 – Second-tier telcos – Revenue and market share by major provider – 2018
Table 17 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – annual change – 2010 - 2014
Table 18 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – relative market shares – 2010 - 2014
Table 19 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by provider (historic) – 2004 - 2007
Table 20 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – relative market shares – 2004 - 2007
Table 21 – Fixed-line telephone services in operation (retail) (millions) – 2013 - 2018
Table 22 – Percentage of Australians with a fixed-line telephone service at home – 2013 - 2017
Table 23 – Mobile subscribers, penetration and annual change (with forecast) – 2000 - 2023
Table 24 – Mobile subscribers (millions) by MNO (with forecast) – 2009 - 2020
Table 25 – Annual change of mobile subscribers by MNO – 2010 - 2020
Table 26 – Market share of mobile subscribers by MNO (with forecast) – 2010 - 2020
Table 27 – Historic - Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier – 1995; 1997; 2000 - 2009
Table 28 – Historic - Retail mobile subscriber market share by MNO and MVNO – 2015 - 2016
Table 29 – MNO prepaid subscribers (millions) by operator – 2009 - 2018
Table 30 – MNO market share of prepaid subscribers – 2009 - 2018
Table 31 – MNO postpaid subscribers (millions) by operator – 2009 - 2018
Table 32 – MNO market share of postpaid subscribers – 2009 - 2018
Table 33 – MNO total market of prepaid and postpaid subscribers (millions) – 2009 - 2018
Table 34 – MNO total market proportion of prepaid and postpaid subscribers – 2009 - 2018
Table 35 – Prepaid as % of Total Subscribers by operator - 2009 - 2018
Table 36 – Postpaid as % of Total Subscribers by operator - 2009 - 2018
Table 37 – Historic - Share of postpaid subscribers by MNO and MVNO – 2014 – 2015
Table 38 – Historic Share of prepaid subscribers by MNO and MVNO – 2014 – 2015
Table 39 – Historic - 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2003 - 2011
Table 40 – Historic - Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2007 - 2011
Table 41 – Historic - Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
Table 42 – Historic - 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
Table 43 – Historic - Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
Table 44 – Telstra wholesale subscribers – 2007 - 2018
Table 45 – Vodafone wholesale (MVNO) subscribers – 2014 - 2016
Table 46 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change (with forecast) – 2005 - 2020
Table 47 – Historic - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 1993 - 2009
Table 48 – Mobile market revenue per major operator – 2009 - 2018
Table 49 – Mobile market revenue market share per major operator – 2009 - 2018
Table 50 – Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator – 2005 - 2018
Table 51 – Historic - Mobile market revenue per major operator – 1993 - 2004
Table 52 – Historic - Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator – 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2004
Table 53 – Total telecoms revenues by major providers – 2005 - 2014
Table 54 – Mobile market share in revenue per major operator – 2000 - 2018
Table 55 – Telstra mobile broadband revenue – 2009 - 2018
Table 56 – Blended monthly ARPU by MNO – 2000 - 2017
Table 57 – Telstra mobile ARPU - prepaid, postpaid, mobile broadband – 2004 – 2018
Table 58 – Optus mobile subscriber - Monthly ARPU – 2009 - 2018
Table 59 – VHA Monthly ARPU – 2015- 2018
Table 60 – Wireless broadband subscribers by access type – 2009 - 2018
Table 61 – Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2018
Table 62 – Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes – 2009 - 2018
Table 63 – Internet connections via mobile handsets – 2011 - 2018
Table 64 - Use of mobile phones and ownership of smartphones – 2013 - 2017
Table 65 - Percentage of Australians mobile-only / no fixed-line telephone at home 2013 - 2017
Table 66 – Historic - Australian handset shipments (historic) – 2004 - 2016
Table 67 – Australian handset platform market share – 2018
Table 68 – Historic - Australian handset brand market share – major suppliers – 2010 - 2014
Table 69 – Historic - Estimated tablet users – 2010 - 2012; 2015 - 2016
Table 70 – Historic - Tablet market share by manufacturer – 2014 - 2015
Table 71 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless – 2011 - 2018
Table 72 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless, annual growth – 2012 - 2018
Table 73 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless, market share – 2011 - 2018
Table 74 – Historic - Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2011
Table 75 – Total broadband subscribers by access type – 2011 - 2018
Table 76 – Total broadband subscribers by access type, annual growth – 2012 - 2018
Table 77 – Total broadband subscribers by access type, market share – 2011 - 2018
Table 78 – Fixed broadband subscribers – DSL, Cable, Fibre – 2011 - 2018
Table 79 – Historic - Broadband market share by technology – 2008 - 2015
Table 80 – Fixed broadband retail subscribers (thousands) by major provider – 2010 - 2018
Table 81 – Fixed broadband retail subscriber annual growth by major provider – 2011 - 2018
Table 82 – Fixed broadband retail subscribers market share by major provider – 2014 - 2018
Table 83 – Historic - Total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2014
Table 84 – Telstra broadband subscribers by retail / wholesale – 2007 – 2018
Table 85 – Accessing the Internet by Service, Usage Patterns – 2013; 2017
Table 86 – Fixed broadband Subscribers (with Forecast) – 2010 - 2023
Table 87 – Subscribers’ average broadband speed – 2010 - 2017
Table 88 – Average SVoD streaming speed by broadband service provider (Mb/s) – 2015 - 2017
Table 89 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2016 - 2018
Table 90 – Historic - Proportion of internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 - 2015
Table 91 – Historic - Internet subscribers by download speed – 2008 - 2015
Table 92 – Volume of data downloaded (Terrabytes) by access connection - 2013 - 2018
Table 93 – Historic - Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology – 2008 - 2016
Table 94 – Historic - Annual change in data downloaded by access technology – 2011 - 2016
Table 95 – Historic - Average data downloaded per subscriber (fixed-line and mobile) – 2013 - 2016
Table 96 – DSL broadband subscribers – 2008 – 2018
Table 97 – NBN revenue ($million) statistics – 2013 - 2018
Table 98 – NBN ARPU – 2013 - 2018
Table 99 – NBN capital expenditure – 2013 - 2018
Table 100 – Cost per premises – 2014 -2017
Table 101 – Historic - Property, plant, equipment and intangible Assets
Table 102 – NBN premises activated, Ready for Service (thousands) – 2011 - 2018
Table 103 – Cumulative End User subscriptions by technology – 2013 - 2018
Table 104 – Market Share – subscriptions – 2013 - 2018
Table 105 – Cumulative Premises Ready for Service – 2016 - 2017
Table 106 – Historic - Market Share Premises Ready for Service – 2016 - 2017
Table 107 – Fixed Line Speed Tier Mix – 2016 - 2017
Table 108 – Fixed Wireless Speed Tier Mix – 2016 - 2017
Table 109 – Sky Muster Satellite Service Speed Tier Mix – 2016 - 2017
Table 110 – NBN premises activated by platform – 2016 - 2017
Table 111 – NBN premises serviceable by platform – 2016 - 2017
Table 112 – Historic - NBN premises activated by platform – 2014 - 2016
Table 113 – Historic - NBN fibre premises serviceable by type – 2012 – 2016
Table 114 – Historic - NBN fibre premises activated – 2011 – 2016
Table 115 – FTTP - Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
Table 116 – FTTB -- Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
Table 117 – FTTN- Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
Table 118 – HFC - Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
Table 119 – Wireless - Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
Table 120 – Satellite - Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
Table 121 – NBN revenue statistics FTTP / FTTP– FY 2013 - 2017
Table 122 – FTTP subscriber statistics – 2013 - 2018
Table 123 – Annual FTTP / FTTP capital expenditure – FY 2013 - 2017
Table 124 – FTTP Cost per premise – FY 2014-2016
Table 125 – FTTP Greenfields rollouts 2014 - 2016
Table 126 – Pay TV subscribers, Foxtel, others and total – 2008 - 2018
Table 127 – Historic - Pay TV subscribers – annual change by major operator– 1997 - 2014
Table 128 – Historic – AUSTAR pay TV subscribers – 2008 - 2011
Table 129 – Pay TV household penetration rates – 2005 - 2019
Table 130 – Historic - Pay TV household penetration rates – 1997 - 2004
Table 131 – Pay TV revenue by major operator – 2005 - 2017
Table 132 – Historic - Pay TV revenue by major operator – 1997 - 2004
Table 133 – Historic - Percentage change of pay TV revenue by major operator – 1998 - 2004
Table 134 – Percentage change of pay TV revenue by major operator – 2005 - 2017
Table 135 – Subscription TV advertising revenue and annual change – 2000 - 2017
Table 136 – ARPU levels per operator AUSTAR versus FOXTEL – 2003 - 2017
Table 137 – Pay TV industry annual churn rates – 1996 - 2017
Table 138 – SVOD Subscribers by Category – 2017 - 2018

BuddeComm estimates that overall telecoms services revenue was about $42.5 billion in 2013, slightly down on 2012.  This was as a result of lower revenue from Vodafone and Optus, as well as continuing economic uncertainty among some sectors of society which has lessened discretionary spend.

This is expected to continue into 2014 and 2015, with revenue either stagnating all together or only slightly growing to about 1-1.5% annually. Most fixed-line and mobile voice services are now at levels where consumers would not tolerate price increases, so opportunities to drive increases in consumer and business expenditure in the short term are limited to mobile data services based on 4G/Long-term Evolution (LTE) technologies, fibre, and cloud-data housing.

The release of 4G/LTE mobile broadband and increased uptake by consumers and businesses will certainly ease the issue in the short term, but as user uptake increases so will the amount of bandwidth consumed.

Overall mobile services revenue growth by the MNOs over the last financial year has fallen year-on-year. We should expect to see slower revenue growth from Telstra and Optus into 2014, with revenue again negative for Vodafone. While the issues that saw Vodafone revenues slide are unique, the company will continue to be affected by the loss of subscribers, price competitiveness and the cost of investing in infrastructure as it struggles to compete in the LTE-arena.

The number of mobile subscribers continues to grow steadily, and by mid-2013 mobile penetration had reached more than 130% as a significant proportion of subscribers make use of multiple phones or SIM cards. While growth is likely to continue in the next few years as subscribers take to smartphones, this will slow in line with higher penetration, being about 2% into 2014.

Telstra remains the market leader with more than 14 million mobile subscribers, Optus has around 9.5 million subscribers, and Vodafone has seen subscriber numbers fall to just over three million.

In 2013 there are more than 5.5 billion mobile broadband subscribers. The release of additional 4G networks and increases in capital expenditure by the mobile network operators will see increased market penetration of the availability of these 4G/LTE networks. The MNOs will be expecting a greater return on their investments, but BuddeComm expects that uptake will slow down to an annual growth rate of around 3% with ARPU continually falling as market pricing drives uptake.



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