Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2013

Date: October 5, 2012
Pages: 196
Price:
US$ 3,250.00
Publisher: Simba Information
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: C68AD8E4450EN
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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2013
Now in its seventh edition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 adds even more value as a critical research tool by exploring a much-discussed but little-understood side of the market: children’s e-books. In a pair of nationally representative surveys administered in February and August in 2012 that you just can’t get anywhere else, Simba answers the pressing questions pertaining to this segment: What percentage of adults buy children’s and YA books, and in what format are they buying them? How do e-book buyers and iPad owners view the intersection between children and reading, and what extent do they buy digital children’s books? And finally, how many are buying children’s and YA print and e-books to read for themselves?

With more than three decades worth of wisdom pertaining to the children’s and YA market, Simba examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens, as well as an in-depth look at format trends. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

This exclusive statistics and analysis in this report include:
  • Proprietary data on children’s e-book adoption levels, as well as exclusive e-book user and iPad owner trend data.
  • Analysis of the bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.
  • Exhaustive demographic review of adult buyers of children’s/YA books
  • Multi-year results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country, which rate different books and genres as well as profiling buyer and retail trends.
  • Category trends for 15 major juvenile categories with five or more years of data.
  • Projections on the children’s/YA market size through 2014
Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 also includes profiles of bestseller performance and financial estimates for companies such as Candlewick Press, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.

This report is the tool to truly understand where the children’s/YA book market truly stands in today’s world of shifting consumer tastes and increased digital book adoption, as well as understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, benchmarking performance, planning short- and long-term growth strategies, and anticipating what comes next.
METHODOLOGY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF THE U.S. CHILDREN’S/YA BOOK MARKET AND BUYER DEMOGRAPHICS

Introduction
Who Are the Buyers?
Children’s Book Buyer Demographics
  Gender—Table 1.10
  Race—Table 1.11
  Age Bracket—Table 1.12
  Education Level—Table 1.13
  Household Income—Table 1.14
  Employment Status—Table 1.15
  Region—Table 1.16
  Kind of Residence—Table 1.17
  Marital Status—Table 1.18
  Number of Children in Household—Table 1.19
  Age of Children in Household—Table 1.20
Vertical Demographic Overview—Table 1.21
Table 1.1: How Common are the Following Children’s/YA Book Buyers?
Table 1.2: When Parent(s) or Adults are Buying a Children’s/YA Book, who is it usually?
Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.7: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.8: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.9: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.10: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store
Table 1.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race
Table 1.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket
Table 1.13: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level
Table 1.14: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income
Table 1.15: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status
Table 1.16: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Region
Table 1.17: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children’s Book Buyers by Kind of Residence
Table 1.18: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book/Children’s Consumers by Marital Status
Table 1.19: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children’s Book Buyers by Household Children Population
Table 1.20: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in Household
Table 1.21: Children’s Book Buyers: Key Statistics and Demographics

CHAPTER 2: TRENDS IN CHILDREN’S/YA BOOK PUBLISHING

Introduction
  Children’s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: Revenue Trends
Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
Trends in Children’s/YA E-Book Adoption
The Value of Series
Success Still Consolidated
Trade Paperback Still The Leading Format
TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important
Retailer and ‘Intermediaries’ Relationships and Influence Changing
Teen Book Market Cooling Slightly; Tween Books Rise
Table 2.1: Growth Trends in Juvenile Trade, Adult Trade and E-Books
Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2012 vs. 2011
Table 2.3: 4th Graders (9-10-year-olds) Reading habits (2002-2011)
Table 2.4: 8th Graders (13-14-year-olds) Reading habits (2002-2011)
Table 2.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Group (2010-2012)
Table 2.6: Print and Digital Children’s Book Purchases (February 2012)
Table 2.7: Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (February 2012)
Table 2.8: Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (All Adults, E-Book Users and iPad Owners) Any Agree, 2012
Table 2.9: Print and Digital Children’s Book Purchases: All Adults (August 2012)
Table 2.10: Print and Digital Children’s Book Purchases: iPad Owners and E-Book Users (August 2012)
Table 2.11: Why Did you Buy a Children’s YA/Print Book? (August 2012)
Table 2.12: Digital: Why Did You Buy A Children’s/YA Digital Title? (August 2012)
Table 2.13: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 2.14: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010
Table 2.15: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2010-June 2011
Table 2.16: Top NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012
Table 2.17: Average Bestselling Titles per Author (2008-2012)
Table 2.18: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particular Strong Performer in the First Half of 2008-2012?
Table 2.19: Top Ten Trade Categories (2007-2011)
Table 2.20: How Would you Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell?
Table 2.21: Children’s Titles by Age Range on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
Table 2.22: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business is Trending?

CHAPTER 3: LEADING AUTHORS, BOOKS AND IMPRINTS

Introduction
New York Times Series Bestsellers
USA Today Bestsellers
  Bestselling Books, Authors, Imprints and Categories
  Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
  New Titles
  Bestselling Authors
  Leading Imprints
Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title
Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2012
Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.4: Top 20 New York Times Series Imprints, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.8: Top 20 NYT & USA Today Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.9: Top 20 NYT & USA Today Authors, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.10: Top 20 NYT & USA Today Imprints, July 2011-June 2012
Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison July 2010-June 2012
Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2011-June 2012

CHAPTER 4: MARKET SIZING AND FORECASTS

Introduction
Leading Children’s Publishers
  Candlewick
  Disney Publishing Worldwide
  Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
  HarperCollins
  Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
  Macmillan
  Penguin Group (USA)
  Random House
  Scholastic
  Simon & Schuster
Size of the Children’s Publishing Market
Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue
Forecast for Balance of 2012 and Beyond
January—April Comparisons (2012-2011)
Table 4.1: Scholastic Revenue, FY 2001-2012
Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2010-2014P
Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers, 2009-2014P
Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales
Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns

CHAPTER 5: CATEGORY TRENDS

Introduction
The Top Categories
USA Today Bestseller Data
Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released
Children’s/YA Category Analysis
Action & Adventure
Animals
Family & Relationships
Fantasy
Graphic Novel
History
Horror
Horror & Ghost
Humor
People & Places
Religion
Schools & Education
Science Fiction
Social Issues
Social Science
Table 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010
Table 5.3: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011
Table 5.4: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011-June 2012
Table 5.5: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010  102
Table 5.6: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011  103
Table 5.7: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011-June 2012  104
Table 5.8: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2007-2011
Table 5.9: Select Category Ratings, Seven-Year Overview
Table 5.10: Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
Table 5.11: Vital Statistics – Action & Adventure
Table 5.12: Animals Bestseller Performance
Table 5.13: Vital Statistics – Animals
Table 5.14: Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
Table 5.15: Vital Statistics – Family & Relationships
Table 5.16: Fantasy Bestseller Performance
Table 5.17: Vital Statistics – Fantasy
Table 5.18: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
Table 5.19: Vital Statistics – Graphic Novel
Table 5.20: History Bestseller Performance
Table 5.21: Vital Statistics – History
Table 5.22: Horror Bestseller Performance
Table 5.23: Vital Statistics – Horror
Table 5.24: Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
Table 5.25: Vital Statistics – Horror & Ghost
Table 5.26: Humor Bestseller Performance
Table 5.27: Vital Statistics – Humor
Table 5.28: People & Places Bestseller Performance
Table 5.29: Vital Statistics – People & Places
Table 5.30: Religion Bestseller Performance
Table 5.31: Vital Statistics – Religion
Table 5.32: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
Table 5.33: Vital Statistics – Schools & Education
Table 5.34: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
Table 5.35: Vital Statistics – Science Fiction
Table 5.36: Social Issues Bestseller Performance
Table 5.37: Vital Statistics – Social Issues
Table 5.38: Social Science Bestseller Performance
Table 5.39: Vital Statistics – Social Science

CHAPTER 6: DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL SALES

Introduction
Where Books Are Being Purchased
Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing
Barnes & Noble
Books-A-Million
Operating Performance at the Big Two Chains
Superstores and Small Format Store Closings
Online Bookselling
Amazon.com
Barnes & Noble and Books-A-Million
Channel Breakdown for All Book Buyers vs. Children’s Book Buyers
Attitudes and Opinions about Shopping Among Children’s Book Buyers
Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends
Table 6.2: Number of Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
Table 6.3: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2012
Table 6.4: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2007-2011
Table 6.5: Books-A-Million Revenue Allocation (2012-2011)
Table 6.6: Bookstore Chains’ Operating Performance, 2007-2012
Table 6.7: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2007-2012
Table 6.8: Bookstore Chains’ Operating Performance, 2007-2012
Table 6.9: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2007-2011
Table 6.10: Amazon’s Media Sales vs. Electronic Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales, Q12007-Q12012
Table 6.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer
Table 6.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer
Table 6.13: Overview of U.S. Adults and Children’s Book Buyers: Attitudes and Opinions on Shopping (Any Agree)

CHAPTER 7: FORECASTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions
Other Recommendations
Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits
Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2010-2014P

PROFILES OF LEADING CHILDREN’S BOOK PUBLISHERS

Candlewick Press
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette Book Group
HarperCollins Publishers
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House Inc.
Scholastic Corp.
Simon & Schuster Inc.
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