Vietnam Automobile Comprehensive Report Q3/2016
Global automobile production has continuously grown over years but the rate has decreased since reaching the peak of 5.45% in 2012. The largest automobile factories mainly concentrate in North America , Western Europe and East Asia. The Middle East, Southeast Asia, Southwest America and North Africa are expected to become the major car markets in the world in 2020.
The global auto sales reached 90.78 million items in 2015, increasing 2.0% compared to 2014, China and the United States still remained the two leading markets worldwide. North America grew 2.5%, Europe developed very slowly, while Russia and South America revealed signs of decline. Global automobile export increased slightly since 2012, but the growth rate was low, only about 3-4% due to the impacts from the European sovereign debt crisis and the maritime disputes between Japan and China .
Vietnam automobile industry is currently stopping at simple assembly. The average localization ratio is about 10%. Components and core parts requiring high technology for producing complex parts such as body, engine gearbox ... are hardly invested properly and most of which are imported.
Automobile assembly and manufacture has generally tended to grow strongly since 2013, while deeply slumped in 2011 - 2012. The reason is that after 2013, the economic recovery, along with the explosion of consumer lending, low and stable lending rates, government's policies supporting the development of the auto industry have driven the production of the sector. Since 2013, the automobile consumption in Vietnam has continuously increased over the years, making the market become more exciting with unprecedented high growth rates, particularly in 2015 (with the rate reaching 55.9%) and the first 3 months of 2016.
In the first quarter of 2016, Thailand overtook Korea and China to become the leading market in suppyling automobile for Vietnam. The reason is that pick-up truck models of automobile brands worldwide almost concentrate in Thailand, while consumption of them in Vietnam has tended to rise.
With the forecasted growth rate of 10-15% in the period of 2016 - 2020, the automobile industry will continue to grow strongly in the segment of locally assembled vehicles, meanwhile, the truck segment will slow down due to the demand balance.
The “Vietnam Automobile Industry Report Q2/2016” elaborated by Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant Jsc. (VIRAC) draws an all-around picture about the auto sector in Vietnam, brings to readers a clear insight about the historical and current developingg trends of the industry by categories: materials, production – consumptiom, export – import, price movement and distribution system. Specifically, the report analyzes the economic situation in general and the auto industry in particular through the latest data updated to Q2/2016, beside the forecasts about the output, scale and expanding trend of the sector in the future. The report also mentions about related products such as trucks, cars, buses, specialized vehicles, etc. It also give detail information about large businesses in the industry such as Truong Hai, Toyota or Ford, etc. through analyzing their financial statements, technology status and market shares in order to position and identify the level of competitiveness among firms in the market.
The global auto sales reached 90.78 million items in 2015, increasing 2.0% compared to 2014, China and the United States still remained the two leading markets worldwide. North America grew 2.5%, Europe developed very slowly, while Russia and South America revealed signs of decline. Global automobile export increased slightly since 2012, but the growth rate was low, only about 3-4% due to the impacts from the European sovereign debt crisis and the maritime disputes between Japan and China .
Vietnam automobile industry is currently stopping at simple assembly. The average localization ratio is about 10%. Components and core parts requiring high technology for producing complex parts such as body, engine gearbox ... are hardly invested properly and most of which are imported.
Automobile assembly and manufacture has generally tended to grow strongly since 2013, while deeply slumped in 2011 - 2012. The reason is that after 2013, the economic recovery, along with the explosion of consumer lending, low and stable lending rates, government's policies supporting the development of the auto industry have driven the production of the sector. Since 2013, the automobile consumption in Vietnam has continuously increased over the years, making the market become more exciting with unprecedented high growth rates, particularly in 2015 (with the rate reaching 55.9%) and the first 3 months of 2016.
In the first quarter of 2016, Thailand overtook Korea and China to become the leading market in suppyling automobile for Vietnam. The reason is that pick-up truck models of automobile brands worldwide almost concentrate in Thailand, while consumption of them in Vietnam has tended to rise.
With the forecasted growth rate of 10-15% in the period of 2016 - 2020, the automobile industry will continue to grow strongly in the segment of locally assembled vehicles, meanwhile, the truck segment will slow down due to the demand balance.
The “Vietnam Automobile Industry Report Q2/2016” elaborated by Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant Jsc. (VIRAC) draws an all-around picture about the auto sector in Vietnam, brings to readers a clear insight about the historical and current developingg trends of the industry by categories: materials, production – consumptiom, export – import, price movement and distribution system. Specifically, the report analyzes the economic situation in general and the auto industry in particular through the latest data updated to Q2/2016, beside the forecasts about the output, scale and expanding trend of the sector in the future. The report also mentions about related products such as trucks, cars, buses, specialized vehicles, etc. It also give detail information about large businesses in the industry such as Truong Hai, Toyota or Ford, etc. through analyzing their financial statements, technology status and market shares in order to position and identify the level of competitiveness among firms in the market.
Abbreviation
Executive Summary
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1. Macroeconomics Situation
Figure 1. GDP and CPI, 2010 – 2015
Figure 2. VND/USD exchange rate , 2010 - 2015
Figure 3. Average lending rates, 2011 - 2015
Figure 4. Export – import turnover, 2010 - 2015
Figure 5. Population structure, 2010 - 2015
Figure 6. Disposable income and household spending, 2008 – 2017f
1.2. Legal Barriers
Table 1. Maintenance provisions for vehicles
Table 2. Roadmap of applying special consumption taxes for automobiles
Table 3. Draft applying import taxes for automobile components, spare parts
1.3. Impacts of Trade Agreements
Table 4. Roadmap of tax cut in WTO with imported automobile and auto spare parts
2. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
2.1. Global Automobile Market
2.1.1. Components and Spare Parts
Figure 7. Global auto components import, 2010 - 2014
Figure 8. Auto component and spare part import structure, 2014
Figure 9. Auto components and spare parts export structure, 2014
2.1.2. Production
Figure 10. Global automobile production, 2010 - 2015e
Figure 11. Global production structure, 2015e
Figure 12. Production structure by region, 2014 - 2015e
2.1.3. Consumption
Figure 13. Global automobile consumption by type, 2010 – 2015e
Figure 14. Global automobile consumption, 2013 - 2015e
Figure 15. Number of automobiles used worldwide, 2010 – 2014
Figure 16. Automobile using structure by region, 2014
2.1.4. Export – Import
Figure 17. Global automobile export, 2010 – 2014
Figure 18. Auto export structure by country, 2015
Figure 19. Auto import structure by country, 2014
2.1.5. Typical Countries
Table 5. Top largest consumer countries by quantity, 2015
2.1.6. Typical Brands
Figure 20. Top leading producers worldwide, 2014
2.2. Vietnam Automobile Market
2.2.1. Scale and Features
Figure 21. Automobile consumption structure by enterprise, 2015
2.2.2. Value Chain
2.2.3. Position
Figure 22. Vietnam automobile industry position, 2015
2.2.4. Components and Spare Parts
Figure 23. Automobile parts import, 2010 – 2015
Figure 24. The localization rates of some regional countries, 2015
Figure 25. Components and spare parts import structure, 2015
Figure 26. Components and spare parts import by country, 2014 – 2015
2.2.5. Production
Figure 27. Automobile production and assembly in Vietnam, 2010 - Q1/2016e
Figure 28. Production quantity of Thaco, 2013 - 2016e
Figure 29. Production and assembly structure by type, 2010 - Q1/2016e
Figure 30. Vietnam traffic overview, 2015
2.2.6. Consumption
Figure 31. Automobile consumption in Vietnam, 2006 - Q1/2016
Figure 32. Automobile sector developing trend in some Southest Asian countries, 2011 - 2015
Figure 33. Number of automobiles owned by 1,000 peple, 2014
Figure 34. Number of automobiles owned by 100 households in urban – rural areas, 2004 - 2012
Figure 35. Automobile consumption by type, 2015
Figure 36. Automobile consumption by orogins, 2015
Figure 37. Top 10 best-selling models, 2015
Figure 38. Consumption structure by region, 2014 - 2015
Figure 39. Consumption quantity by region, 2015
Figure 40. Consumption structure by enterprise, 2015
Figure 41. Consumption structure by enterprise, 2014
Table 6. Competitive analysis between Truong Hai and Toyota Vietnam
2.2.7. Import
Figure 42. CBU automobile import, 2010 - Q1/2015
Figure 43. Automobile import by country, 2014 - 2015
Figure 44. CBU automobile import by country, Q1/2015 - Q1/2016
2.2.8. Automobile Price
Figure 45. Automobile price compared with Indonesia and Thailand, 12/2015
Table 7. Import tax of automobile by country (%), 11/2015
Figure 46. Structure of costs paid by consumers, 6/2016
Figure 47. Price movement of major models, 6/2013 - 6/2016
2.2.9. Distribution System
3. RISKS AND CHALLENGES
Figure 48. CNY/VND, 3/2014 - 3/2016
Figure 49. Global oil price, 6/2011 - 3/2016
Figure 50. CO₂ sources
4. DRIVING FORCES
Figure 51. Population pyramid, 2015
Figure 52. Outstanding consumer loans, 2012 - 9T/2015
5. PLANNING AND FORECASTS
Table 8. Expected proportion of locally produced vehicles over the total domestic demand (%)
Table 9. Forecast on automobile capacity and growth rates over year
Table 10. Estimated exports of CBU automobiles and spare parts
Table 11. The localization rate through years
Figure 53. Automobile consumption in Vietnam forecast, 2006 – 2020f
6. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
Figure 54. Revenue and market shares of Truong Hai Auto
Table 12. Some financial indicators of Truong Hai Auto
Figure 55. Sales and market shares of Toyota Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Figure 56. Sales of Lexus Vietnam, 2014 – Q1//2016
Figure 57. Sales and market shares of Ford Vietnam, 2013 – Q1/2016
Figure 58. Sales and market shares of Honda Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Figure 59. Sales of Mercedes – Benz Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Figure 60. Sales and market shares of Hino Motors Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Figure 61. Sales and market shares of Isuzu Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Executive Summary
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1. Macroeconomics Situation
Figure 1. GDP and CPI, 2010 – 2015
Figure 2. VND/USD exchange rate , 2010 - 2015
Figure 3. Average lending rates, 2011 - 2015
Figure 4. Export – import turnover, 2010 - 2015
Figure 5. Population structure, 2010 - 2015
Figure 6. Disposable income and household spending, 2008 – 2017f
1.2. Legal Barriers
Table 1. Maintenance provisions for vehicles
Table 2. Roadmap of applying special consumption taxes for automobiles
Table 3. Draft applying import taxes for automobile components, spare parts
1.3. Impacts of Trade Agreements
Table 4. Roadmap of tax cut in WTO with imported automobile and auto spare parts
2. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
2.1. Global Automobile Market
2.1.1. Components and Spare Parts
Figure 7. Global auto components import, 2010 - 2014
Figure 8. Auto component and spare part import structure, 2014
Figure 9. Auto components and spare parts export structure, 2014
2.1.2. Production
Figure 10. Global automobile production, 2010 - 2015e
Figure 11. Global production structure, 2015e
Figure 12. Production structure by region, 2014 - 2015e
2.1.3. Consumption
Figure 13. Global automobile consumption by type, 2010 – 2015e
Figure 14. Global automobile consumption, 2013 - 2015e
Figure 15. Number of automobiles used worldwide, 2010 – 2014
Figure 16. Automobile using structure by region, 2014
2.1.4. Export – Import
Figure 17. Global automobile export, 2010 – 2014
Figure 18. Auto export structure by country, 2015
Figure 19. Auto import structure by country, 2014
2.1.5. Typical Countries
Table 5. Top largest consumer countries by quantity, 2015
2.1.6. Typical Brands
Figure 20. Top leading producers worldwide, 2014
2.2. Vietnam Automobile Market
2.2.1. Scale and Features
Figure 21. Automobile consumption structure by enterprise, 2015
2.2.2. Value Chain
2.2.3. Position
Figure 22. Vietnam automobile industry position, 2015
2.2.4. Components and Spare Parts
Figure 23. Automobile parts import, 2010 – 2015
Figure 24. The localization rates of some regional countries, 2015
Figure 25. Components and spare parts import structure, 2015
Figure 26. Components and spare parts import by country, 2014 – 2015
2.2.5. Production
Figure 27. Automobile production and assembly in Vietnam, 2010 - Q1/2016e
Figure 28. Production quantity of Thaco, 2013 - 2016e
Figure 29. Production and assembly structure by type, 2010 - Q1/2016e
Figure 30. Vietnam traffic overview, 2015
2.2.6. Consumption
Figure 31. Automobile consumption in Vietnam, 2006 - Q1/2016
Figure 32. Automobile sector developing trend in some Southest Asian countries, 2011 - 2015
Figure 33. Number of automobiles owned by 1,000 peple, 2014
Figure 34. Number of automobiles owned by 100 households in urban – rural areas, 2004 - 2012
Figure 35. Automobile consumption by type, 2015
Figure 36. Automobile consumption by orogins, 2015
Figure 37. Top 10 best-selling models, 2015
Figure 38. Consumption structure by region, 2014 - 2015
Figure 39. Consumption quantity by region, 2015
Figure 40. Consumption structure by enterprise, 2015
Figure 41. Consumption structure by enterprise, 2014
Table 6. Competitive analysis between Truong Hai and Toyota Vietnam
2.2.7. Import
Figure 42. CBU automobile import, 2010 - Q1/2015
Figure 43. Automobile import by country, 2014 - 2015
Figure 44. CBU automobile import by country, Q1/2015 - Q1/2016
2.2.8. Automobile Price
Figure 45. Automobile price compared with Indonesia and Thailand, 12/2015
Table 7. Import tax of automobile by country (%), 11/2015
Figure 46. Structure of costs paid by consumers, 6/2016
Figure 47. Price movement of major models, 6/2013 - 6/2016
2.2.9. Distribution System
3. RISKS AND CHALLENGES
Figure 48. CNY/VND, 3/2014 - 3/2016
Figure 49. Global oil price, 6/2011 - 3/2016
Figure 50. CO₂ sources
4. DRIVING FORCES
Figure 51. Population pyramid, 2015
Figure 52. Outstanding consumer loans, 2012 - 9T/2015
5. PLANNING AND FORECASTS
Table 8. Expected proportion of locally produced vehicles over the total domestic demand (%)
Table 9. Forecast on automobile capacity and growth rates over year
Table 10. Estimated exports of CBU automobiles and spare parts
Table 11. The localization rate through years
Figure 53. Automobile consumption in Vietnam forecast, 2006 – 2020f
6. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
Figure 54. Revenue and market shares of Truong Hai Auto
Table 12. Some financial indicators of Truong Hai Auto
Figure 55. Sales and market shares of Toyota Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Figure 56. Sales of Lexus Vietnam, 2014 – Q1//2016
Figure 57. Sales and market shares of Ford Vietnam, 2013 – Q1/2016
Figure 58. Sales and market shares of Honda Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Figure 59. Sales of Mercedes – Benz Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Figure 60. Sales and market shares of Hino Motors Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
Figure 61. Sales and market shares of Isuzu Vietnam, 2013 – Q1//2016
