Vietnam Automobile Comprehensive Report Q2/2017
Global automobile production has continuously grown over years but the rate has decreased since reaching the peak of 5.45% in 2012. The largest automobile factories mainly concentrate in North America , Western Europe and East Asia. The Middle East, Southeast Asia, Southwest America and North Africa are expected to become the major car markets in the world in 2020.
The global auto sales reached 90.78 million items in 2015, increasing 2.0% compared to 2014, China and the United States still remained the two leading markets worldwide. North America grew 2.5%, Europe developed very slowly, while Russia and South America revealed signs of decline. Global automobile export increased slightly since 2012, but the growth rate was low, only about 3-4% due to the impacts from the European sovereign debt crisis and the maritime disputes between Japan and China .
Vietnam automobile industry is currently stopping at simple assembly. The average localization ratio is about 10%. Components and core parts requiring high technology for producing complex parts such as body, engine gearbox ... are hardly invested properly and most of which are imported.
Automobile assembly and manufacture has generally tended to grow strongly since 2013, while deeply slumped in 2011 - 2012. The reason is that after 2013, the economic recovery, along with the explosion of consumer lending, low and stable lending rates, government's policies supporting the development of the auto industry have driven the production of the sector. Since 2013, the automobile consumption in Vietnam has continuously increased over the years, making the market become more exciting with unprecedented high growth rates, particularly in 2015 (with the rate reaching 55.9%) and the first 3 months of 2016.
In the first quarter of 2016, Thailand overtook Korea and China to become the leading market in suppyling automobile for Vietnam. The reason is that pick-up truck models of automobile brands worldwide almost concentrate in Thailand, while consumption of them in Vietnam has tended to rise.
With the forecasted growth rate of 10-15% in the period of 2016 - 2020, the automobile industry will continue to grow strongly in the segment of locally assembled vehicles, meanwhile, the truck segment will slow down due to the demand balance.
The “Vietnam Automobile Industry Report Q2/2016” elaborated by Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant Jsc. (VIRAC) draws an all-around picture about the auto sector in Vietnam, brings to readers a clear insight about the historical and current developingg trends of the industry by categories: materials, production – consumptiom, export – import, price movement and distribution system. Specifically, the report analyzes the economic situation in general and the auto industry in particular through the latest data updated to Q2/2016, beside the forecasts about the output, scale and expanding trend of the sector in the future. The report also mentions about related products such as trucks, cars, buses, specialized vehicles, etc. It also give detail information about large businesses in the industry such as Truong Hai, Toyota or Ford, etc. through analyzing their financial statements, technology status and market shares in order to position and identify the level of competitiveness among firms in the market.
The global auto sales reached 90.78 million items in 2015, increasing 2.0% compared to 2014, China and the United States still remained the two leading markets worldwide. North America grew 2.5%, Europe developed very slowly, while Russia and South America revealed signs of decline. Global automobile export increased slightly since 2012, but the growth rate was low, only about 3-4% due to the impacts from the European sovereign debt crisis and the maritime disputes between Japan and China .
Vietnam automobile industry is currently stopping at simple assembly. The average localization ratio is about 10%. Components and core parts requiring high technology for producing complex parts such as body, engine gearbox ... are hardly invested properly and most of which are imported.
Automobile assembly and manufacture has generally tended to grow strongly since 2013, while deeply slumped in 2011 - 2012. The reason is that after 2013, the economic recovery, along with the explosion of consumer lending, low and stable lending rates, government's policies supporting the development of the auto industry have driven the production of the sector. Since 2013, the automobile consumption in Vietnam has continuously increased over the years, making the market become more exciting with unprecedented high growth rates, particularly in 2015 (with the rate reaching 55.9%) and the first 3 months of 2016.
In the first quarter of 2016, Thailand overtook Korea and China to become the leading market in suppyling automobile for Vietnam. The reason is that pick-up truck models of automobile brands worldwide almost concentrate in Thailand, while consumption of them in Vietnam has tended to rise.
With the forecasted growth rate of 10-15% in the period of 2016 - 2020, the automobile industry will continue to grow strongly in the segment of locally assembled vehicles, meanwhile, the truck segment will slow down due to the demand balance.
The “Vietnam Automobile Industry Report Q2/2016” elaborated by Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant Jsc. (VIRAC) draws an all-around picture about the auto sector in Vietnam, brings to readers a clear insight about the historical and current developingg trends of the industry by categories: materials, production – consumptiom, export – import, price movement and distribution system. Specifically, the report analyzes the economic situation in general and the auto industry in particular through the latest data updated to Q2/2016, beside the forecasts about the output, scale and expanding trend of the sector in the future. The report also mentions about related products such as trucks, cars, buses, specialized vehicles, etc. It also give detail information about large businesses in the industry such as Truong Hai, Toyota or Ford, etc. through analyzing their financial statements, technology status and market shares in order to position and identify the level of competitiveness among firms in the market.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Business Environment
1.1. Macroeconomics Situation
Figure 1. GDP growth, 2011 – Q1/2017e
Figure 2. The monthly fluctuation of CPI, 2014 – 3/2017
Figure 3. GDP growth, 2001 – 2016e
Figure 4. Consumer Confidence Index, Q1/2014 – Q4/2016
Figure 5. Average lending rates, 2011 – 3M/2017e
Figure 6. USD/VND exchange rate, 2015 – 4/2017
Figure 7. Urbanization level, 2010 - 2016
Figure 8. Disposable income and household expenditure, 2008 – 2017f
1.2. Legal Barriers
Table 1. Maintenance provisions for vehicles
Table 2. Roadmap of applying special consumption taxes for automobiles
Table 3. Draft applying import taxes for automobile components, spare parts
1.3. Impacts of Trade Agreements
Table 4. Roadmap of tax cut in WTO with imported automobile
and auto spare parts
Industry Overview
2.1. Global Automobile Market
2.1.1. Spare Parts
Figure 9. Global auto components import, 2010 – 2016e
Table 5. Auto component and spare part import structure, 2016e
Table 6. Auto components and spare parts export structure, 2016e
2.1.2. Production
Figure 10. Global automobile production, 2010 - 2015e
Figure 11. Global production structure by automobile type, 2015e
Figure 12. Production structure by region, 2015 - 2016e
2.1.3. Consumption
Figure 13. Global automobile consumption by type, 2010 – 2016e
Figure 14. Global automobile consumption, 2013 - 2016e
Figure 15. Number of automobiles used worldwide, 2010 – 2015e
Figure 16. Automobile using structure by region, 2015
2.1.4. Export – Import
Figure 17. Global automobile export, 2010 – 2016e
Figure 18. Auto export structure by country, 2016e
Figure 19. Auto import structure by country, 2016e
2.1.5 Typical Countries
Table 7. Top largest consumer countries by quantity, 2016
2.1.6 Typical Brands
Figure 20. Top leading producers worldwide, 2016
2.2. Vietnam Automobile Market
2.2.1. Scale and Features
Figure 21. Automobile consumption structure by enterprise, 2016
2.2.2. Industry Value Chain
2.2.3. Industry Position
Figure 22. Vietnam's automotive industry position in comparison
with the world in 2016
2.2.4. Spare Parts
Figure 23. Automobile parts import, 2010 – 3M/2017e
Figure 24. The localization rates of some regional countries, 2016e
Figure 25. Components and spare parts import structure, 2016e
Figure 26. Components and spare parts import by country, 2015 – 2016e
2.2.5. Production
Figure 27. Automobile production and assembly in Vietnam, 2010 – 2016
Figure 28. Production quantity of Thaco, 2013 - 2016
Figure 29. Production and assembly structure by type, 2010 – 3M/2017e
Figure 30. Vietnam traffic overview, 1/2016
Figure 31. The assembly and production value chain of Truong Hai
2.2.6. Consumption
Figure 32. Automobile consumption in Vietnam, 2006 – 3M/2017e
Figure 33. Automobile sector developing trend in some Southest Asian countries, 2011 - 2016
Figure 34. Number of automobiles owned by 1,000 peple, 2016e
Figure 35. Number of automobiles owned by 100 households in urban – rural areas, 2004 – 2016e
Figure 36. Automobile consumption by type, 1/2015 – 3/2017
Figure 37. Automobile consumption by orogins, 1/2015 – 3/2017
Figure 38. Top 10 best-selling automobiles 3M/2017
Figure 39. Consumption structure by region, 2014 – 3M/2017
Figure 40. Consumption quantity by region, 3M/2017
Figure 41. Consumption structure by enterprise, 2016
Figure 42. Consumption structure by enterprise, 3M/2017e
Table 8. Competitive analysis between Truong Hai and Toyota Vietnam
2.2.7. Import
Figure 43. CBU automobile import, 2011 – 3M/2017e
Figure 44. Automobile import by country, 2015 – 2016
2.2.8. Automobile Price
Figure 45. Automobile price compared with Indonesia and Thailand, 12/2016
Table 9. Import tax of automobile by country (%), 12/2016
Figure 46. Structure of costs paid by consumers, 12/2016
Figure 47. Price movement of major models, 6/2013 - 3/2017
2.2.9. Distribution System
Risks and Challenges
Figure 48. CNY/VND, 3/2014 - 12/2016
Figure 49. Global oil price, 6/2011 – 3/2017
Figure 50. Structure by source of CO2 emission into the environment
Driving Forces
Figure 51. Population pyramid, 2016
Figure 52. Outstanding consumer loans, 2012 – 9M/2015
Planning and Forecasts
5.1. Planning
Table 10. Expected proportion of locally produced vehicles over the
total domestic demand (%)
Table 11. Forecast on automobile capacity and growth rates over year
Table 12. Estimated exports of CBU automobiles and spare parts
Table 13. The localization rate through years
5.2. Forecasts
5.2.1. Global Forecasts
5.2.2. Domestic Forecasts
Figure 53. Automobile consumption in Vietnam forecast, 2017f - 2020f
Enterprise Analysis
Figure 54. Revenue and market shares of Truong Hai Auto, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 55. Some financial indicators of Truong Hai Auto
Figure 56. Sales and market shares of Toyota Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 57. Sales of Lexus Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 58. Sales and market shares of Ford Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 59. Sales and market shares of Honda Vietnam, 2014 – 3M/2017
Figure 60. Sales of Mercedes – Benz Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 61. Sales and market shares of Hino Motors Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 62. Sales and market shares of Isuzu Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Business Environment
1.1. Macroeconomics Situation
Figure 1. GDP growth, 2011 – Q1/2017e
Figure 2. The monthly fluctuation of CPI, 2014 – 3/2017
Figure 3. GDP growth, 2001 – 2016e
Figure 4. Consumer Confidence Index, Q1/2014 – Q4/2016
Figure 5. Average lending rates, 2011 – 3M/2017e
Figure 6. USD/VND exchange rate, 2015 – 4/2017
Figure 7. Urbanization level, 2010 - 2016
Figure 8. Disposable income and household expenditure, 2008 – 2017f
1.2. Legal Barriers
Table 1. Maintenance provisions for vehicles
Table 2. Roadmap of applying special consumption taxes for automobiles
Table 3. Draft applying import taxes for automobile components, spare parts
1.3. Impacts of Trade Agreements
Table 4. Roadmap of tax cut in WTO with imported automobile
and auto spare parts
Industry Overview
2.1. Global Automobile Market
2.1.1. Spare Parts
Figure 9. Global auto components import, 2010 – 2016e
Table 5. Auto component and spare part import structure, 2016e
Table 6. Auto components and spare parts export structure, 2016e
2.1.2. Production
Figure 10. Global automobile production, 2010 - 2015e
Figure 11. Global production structure by automobile type, 2015e
Figure 12. Production structure by region, 2015 - 2016e
2.1.3. Consumption
Figure 13. Global automobile consumption by type, 2010 – 2016e
Figure 14. Global automobile consumption, 2013 - 2016e
Figure 15. Number of automobiles used worldwide, 2010 – 2015e
Figure 16. Automobile using structure by region, 2015
2.1.4. Export – Import
Figure 17. Global automobile export, 2010 – 2016e
Figure 18. Auto export structure by country, 2016e
Figure 19. Auto import structure by country, 2016e
2.1.5 Typical Countries
Table 7. Top largest consumer countries by quantity, 2016
2.1.6 Typical Brands
Figure 20. Top leading producers worldwide, 2016
2.2. Vietnam Automobile Market
2.2.1. Scale and Features
Figure 21. Automobile consumption structure by enterprise, 2016
2.2.2. Industry Value Chain
2.2.3. Industry Position
Figure 22. Vietnam's automotive industry position in comparison
with the world in 2016
2.2.4. Spare Parts
Figure 23. Automobile parts import, 2010 – 3M/2017e
Figure 24. The localization rates of some regional countries, 2016e
Figure 25. Components and spare parts import structure, 2016e
Figure 26. Components and spare parts import by country, 2015 – 2016e
2.2.5. Production
Figure 27. Automobile production and assembly in Vietnam, 2010 – 2016
Figure 28. Production quantity of Thaco, 2013 - 2016
Figure 29. Production and assembly structure by type, 2010 – 3M/2017e
Figure 30. Vietnam traffic overview, 1/2016
Figure 31. The assembly and production value chain of Truong Hai
2.2.6. Consumption
Figure 32. Automobile consumption in Vietnam, 2006 – 3M/2017e
Figure 33. Automobile sector developing trend in some Southest Asian countries, 2011 - 2016
Figure 34. Number of automobiles owned by 1,000 peple, 2016e
Figure 35. Number of automobiles owned by 100 households in urban – rural areas, 2004 – 2016e
Figure 36. Automobile consumption by type, 1/2015 – 3/2017
Figure 37. Automobile consumption by orogins, 1/2015 – 3/2017
Figure 38. Top 10 best-selling automobiles 3M/2017
Figure 39. Consumption structure by region, 2014 – 3M/2017
Figure 40. Consumption quantity by region, 3M/2017
Figure 41. Consumption structure by enterprise, 2016
Figure 42. Consumption structure by enterprise, 3M/2017e
Table 8. Competitive analysis between Truong Hai and Toyota Vietnam
2.2.7. Import
Figure 43. CBU automobile import, 2011 – 3M/2017e
Figure 44. Automobile import by country, 2015 – 2016
2.2.8. Automobile Price
Figure 45. Automobile price compared with Indonesia and Thailand, 12/2016
Table 9. Import tax of automobile by country (%), 12/2016
Figure 46. Structure of costs paid by consumers, 12/2016
Figure 47. Price movement of major models, 6/2013 - 3/2017
2.2.9. Distribution System
Risks and Challenges
Figure 48. CNY/VND, 3/2014 - 12/2016
Figure 49. Global oil price, 6/2011 – 3/2017
Figure 50. Structure by source of CO2 emission into the environment
Driving Forces
Figure 51. Population pyramid, 2016
Figure 52. Outstanding consumer loans, 2012 – 9M/2015
Planning and Forecasts
5.1. Planning
Table 10. Expected proportion of locally produced vehicles over the
total domestic demand (%)
Table 11. Forecast on automobile capacity and growth rates over year
Table 12. Estimated exports of CBU automobiles and spare parts
Table 13. The localization rate through years
5.2. Forecasts
5.2.1. Global Forecasts
5.2.2. Domestic Forecasts
Figure 53. Automobile consumption in Vietnam forecast, 2017f - 2020f
Enterprise Analysis
Figure 54. Revenue and market shares of Truong Hai Auto, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 55. Some financial indicators of Truong Hai Auto
Figure 56. Sales and market shares of Toyota Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 57. Sales of Lexus Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 58. Sales and market shares of Ford Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 59. Sales and market shares of Honda Vietnam, 2014 – 3M/2017
Figure 60. Sales of Mercedes – Benz Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 61. Sales and market shares of Hino Motors Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
Figure 62. Sales and market shares of Isuzu Vietnam, 2013 – 3M/2017
