The Global Rare Earth Elements Market 2011-2015: Is the Hype Justified?

Date: July 22, 2011
Pages: 128
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Publisher: IMARC Group
Report type: Strategic Report
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The Global Rare Earth Elements Market 2011-2015: Is the Hype Justified?
Recent findings suggesting a global supply shortage of rare earth elements has created a panic among end users and a gold rush among miners. IMARC Group, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms, finds that with a number of new mines starting production in the next five years, the total supply of rare earth elements will be significantly more than the total demand. Although, a number of rare earth elements would be oversupplied, we may face a shortage of some elements that are critical for the long term growth of the clean technology industry.

IMARC’s new report entitled “The Global Rare Earth Elements Market 2011-2015: Is the Hype Justified?” provides an analytical and statistical insight into the global rare earth elements market. The study that has been undertaken using both desk-based as well as qualitative primary research has analyzed five aspects of the rare earth elements market.

Key Aspects Analyzed:

Understanding the Mining Economics of Rare Earth Elements:
Focus of the Analysis:
  • Rare earth mine valuation
  • Stages and time taken to develop and start production at a rare earth mine
  • The total costs involved in rare earth mining
  • Mining and downstream processing of rare earth elements
  • Rare earth element pricing

Understanding China’s Role in the Global Rare Earth Elements Market:

Focus of the Analysis:
  • China’s role in the global supply and demand of rare earth elements
  • Reasons for China’s dominance
  • China’s current and future supply strategies

Comprehensive Situation Analysis of the Global Rare Earth Elements Market:

Focus of the analysis:
  • Quantifying the historical sales and production of rare earth elements
  • Identification and evaluation of current global rare earth mines
  • Identification and evaluation of mines expected to begin production in the next five years
  • Current and future consumption of rare earth elements

Evaluating the Supply and Demand of Various Rare Earth Elements:

Focus of the analysis:
  • Quantifying the production of each element from current and future mines
  • Quantifying the current and future demand of each element
  • Historical, current and future prices of each element
  • Evaluating the supply risks of each element and its importance for clean technology
  • Identification of critically undersupplied and oversupplied rare earth elements

Evaluating the Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Various Industries

Focus of the analysis:
  • Quantifying the current and future size of each Industry
  • Quantifying the current and future demands of rare earth elements in each industry
  • Identification of industries having the highest demand of rare earth elements.

Information Sources:

Information has been sourced from both primary and secondary sources:
  • Primary sources include industry surveys and face to face/telephone interviews with industry experts.
  • Secondary sources include proprietary databases and search engines. These sources include company websites and reports, books, trade journals, magazines, white papers, industry portals, government sources and access to more than 4000 paid databases.
1. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY & MARKET DEFINITIONS

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. WHAT ARE RARE EARTH ELEMENTS?

4. RARE EARTH ELEMENTS: ARE THEY REALLY RARE?

4.1 Reserve & Reserve Base Estimates
4.2 How Long Will They Last?

5. RARE EARTH ELEMENTS: MINING ECONOMICS

5.1 Mine Valuation: Grades & Composition are Key
5.2 Development of a New Project: Can Take Several Years
5.3 Rare Earth Mining Costs: Largely Location and Grade Dependent
  5.3.1 Infrastructure & Capital Costs
  5.3.2 Operating Costs
5.4 Mining & Processing
  5.4.1 Mining
  5.4.2 Downstream Processing
5.5 Prices: Have Risen Several Fold in Recent Years
  5.5.1 Factors Affecting Rare Earth Element Prices
  5.5.2 Historical Prices
  5.5.3 Pricing Forecast

6. CHINA’S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL RARE EARTH ELEMENTS MARKET

6.1 China Has a Monopoly Over Rare Earth Elements
6.2 Mining Costs in China Are Significantly Lower Than Other Rare Earth Producers
6.3 Miners Have Benefitted from the Lack of Proper Working Standards and Environmental Regulations
6.4 China Has a Significantly Higher In-house Expertise Compared to Other Rare Earth Producers
6.5 China is Decreasing Export Quotas as its Own Domestic Demand is Expected to Outstrip Supply
6.6 China Aims to Become an Exporter of Higher Value Goods

7. THE GLOBAL RARE EARTH ELEMENTS MARKET

7.1 Total Sales & Production of Rare Earth Elements
7.2 Production of Rare Earth Elements by Region
  7.2.1 Current Operational Mines
    7.2.1.1 Bayan Obo, China
    7.2.1.2 Longnan, China
    7.2.1.3 Xunwu, China
    7.2.1.4 India
    7.2.1.5 Eastern Coast, Brazil
    7.2.1.6 Lahat, Malaysia
  7.2.2 Potential New Projects
    7.2.2.1 Mt. Weld, Australia
    7.2.2.2 Mountain Pass, United States
    7.2.2.3 Nolans, Australia
    7.2.2.4 Steenkampskraal, South Africa
    7.2.2.5 Nechalacho, Canada
    7.2.2.6 Kvanefjeld, Greenland
    7.2.2.7 Dong Pao, Vietnam
    7.2.2.8 Dubbo Zirconia, Australia
7.3 Consumption of Rare Earth Elements by Region
  7.3.1 China
  7.3.2 Japan & Northeast Asia
  7.3.3 US

8. SUPPLY & DEMAND OF INDIVIDUAL RARE EARTH ELEMENTS

8.1 Elements that will Face Supply Shortages in the Near Future
  8.1.1 Terbium
    8.1.1.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.1.1.2 Supply & Demand
  8.1.2 Dysprosium
    8.1.2.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.1.2.2 Supply & Demand
  8.1.3 Neodymium
    8.1.3.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.1.3.2 Supply & Demand
  8.1.4 Europium
    8.1.4.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.1.4.2 Supply & Demand
8.2 Elements That Will Be Oversupplied in the Near Future
  8.2.1 Yttrium
    8.2.1.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.2.1.2 Supply & Demand
  8.2.2 Lanthanum
    8.2.2.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.2.2.2 Supply & Demand
  8.2.3 Cerium
    8.2.3.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.2.3.2 Supply & Demand
  8.2.4 Praseodymium
    8.2.4.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.2.4.2 Supply & Demand
  8.2.5 Samarium
    8.2.5.1 Element Overview & Supply Risks
    8.2.5.2 Supply & Demand

9. MARKET BY APPLICATION (2010-2015)

9.1 Magnets
9.2 NiMH Batteries
9.3 Auto Catalysts
9.4 Diesel Engines
9.5 Fluid Cracking Catalysts
9.6 Phosphers
9.7 Glass
9.8 Polishing Powders
9.9 Other Applications

11. OVERCOMING THE POTENTIAL SHORTFALLS IN SUPPLY

11.1 Stockpiling
11.2 Recycling
11.3 Substitution
11.4 Material Shortfall Strategies by Various Rare Earth Consumers

12. KEY PLAYER PROFILES

12.1 Lynas Corporation
12.2 Molycorp Minerals
12.3 Arafura Resources Ltd
12.4 Great Western Minerals Group Ltd
12.5 Avalon Rare Metals Inc
12.6 Greenland Minerals & Energy Ltd
12.7 Alkane Resources Ltd

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2 1: Timeline for Important Events in the Global Rare Earth Elements Market
Figure 3 1: Periodic Table Showing Rare Earth Elements
Figure 4 1: Topology of Rare Earth Elements
Figure 4 2: Global: Rare Earth Metal Reserves by Country (in Million Metric Tons), 2010
Figure 4 3: Global: Rare Earth Metal Reserves by Country (in %), 2010
Figure 4 4: Global: Rare Earth Metals Reserve Base by Country (in Million Metric Tons), 2009
Figure 4 5: Global: Rare Earth Metals Reserve Base by Country (in %), in 2009
Figure 4 6: Global: Breakup of Light & Heavy Rare Earth Metal Reserves (in %), 2010
Figure 5 1: Comparative Total Rare Earth Oxide Values of Various Rare Earth Mines, 2010
Figure 5 2: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Breakup of Total Operational Costs Involved in Mining & Processing, (in %)
Figure 5 3: Global: Sources of Rare Earth Metals
Figure 5 4: Flow Chart: Concentration of Rare Earth Ores
Figure 5 5: Flow Chart: Extraction of Rare Earths from their Concentrated Ores
Figure 6 1: China’s Rare Earth Monopoly
Figure 6 2: China & US: Average Labor Costs Per Hour (in US$), 2006
Figure 6 3: China: Domestic Demand and Supply of Rare Earth Elements, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Figure 6 4: China: High Technology Exports (% of Manufactured Exports) 2000 & 2009
Figure 6 5: China: Rare Earth Elements Market Evolution, 1970 – 2011
Figure 7 1: Global: Rare Earth Metals Production (in 000’ Metric Tons) 1995-2010
Figure 7 2: Global: Rare Earth Metals Market (in Billion US$) 2008-2010
Figure 7 3: Global: Rare Earth Metals Production Forecast (in 000’ Metric Tons), 2011-2015
Figure 7 4: Global: Rare Earth Metals Market Forecast (in Billion US$), 2011-2015
Figure 7 5: Global: Rare Earth Metals Production by Country (in %), 2010
Figure 7 6: Global: Rare Earth Metals Production by Country Forecast (in %), 2015
Figure 7 7: Bayan Obo Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 8: Longnan Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 9: Xunwu Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 10: India Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 11: Eastern Coast Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 12: Lahat Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 13: Mt Weld Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 14: Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 15: Nolans Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 16: Steenkampskraal Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 17: Nechalacho Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 18: Kvanefjeld Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 19: Dong Pao Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 20: Dubbo Zirconia Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Figure 7 21: Global: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Region, (in %), 2010
Figure 7 22: Global: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Region Forecast, (in %), 2015
Figure 8 1: Terbium: Supply & Demand Balance, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Figure 8 2: Terbium: Historical prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 3: Terbium: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 8 4: Dysprosium: Supply & Demand Balance, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Figure 8 5: Dysprosium: Historical prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 6: Dysprosium: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 8 7: Neodymium: Supply & Demand Balance, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Figure 8 8: Neodymium: Historical prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 9: Neodymium: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 8 10: Europium: Supply & Demand Balance, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Figure 8 11: Europium: Historical prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 12: Europium: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 8 13: Yttrium: Supply & Demand Balance, 2015 (in Metric Tons)
Figure 8 14: Yttrium: Historical prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 15: Yttrium: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 8 16: Lanthanum: Supply & Demand Balance, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Figure 8 17: Lanthanum: Historical prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 18: Lanthanum: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 8 19: Cerium: Supply & Demand Balance, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Figure 8 20: Cerium: Historical prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 21: Cerium: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 8 22: Praseodymium: Supply & Demand Balance, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Figure 8 23: Praseodymium: Historical prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 24: Praseodymium: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 8 25: Samarium: Supply & Demand Balance, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Figure 8 26: Samarium: Historical Prices (in US$/kg), 2007-2010
Figure 8 27: Samarium: Price Forecasts (in US$/kg), 2011-2015
Figure 9 1: Diesel Particulate Filter

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 1: Rare Earth Elements: Light & Heavy Definitions
Table 3 1: Rare Earth Elements: Characteristics & Applications
Table 4 1: Global: Rare Earth Metals: Reserve & Reserve Base Estimates by Country (in Million Metric Tons)
Table 5 1: Light & Heavy Rare Earth Elements: Key Barriers to Entry
Table 5 2: Total Time & Stages Required in Constructing & Bringing a Rare Earth Mine to Production
Table 5 3: Rare Earth Elements: Mining & Processing Costs
Table 5 4: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Total Infrastructure & Capital Costs, (in Million US$)
Table 5 5: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Breakup of Capital Costs, (in Million US$)
Table 5 6: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Operational Costs Involved in Underground Mining and Preparation of a Bulk Concentrate, (Cost US$ Per Metric Ton of Ore Mined)
Table 5 7: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Operational Costs Involved in Hydrometallurgical Processing, (Cost US$ Per Metric Ton of Ore Mined)
Table 5 8: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Total Operational Costs Involved in Mining & Processing, (Cost US$ Per Metric Ton of Ore Mined)
Table 5 9: Sources of Rare Earth Elements & Their Composition
Table 5 10: Average Annual Prices of Individual Rare Earth Elements, (in US$/Kg), 2007-2011
Table 5 11: Average Annual Price Forecast of Individual Rare Earth Elements, (in US$/Kg), 2011-2015
Table 6 1: China: Rare Earth Elements Export Quota (in Metric Tons), 2005 – 2011
Table 7 1: Global: Rare Earth Metals Production by Country (in Metric Tons), 1995-2002
Table 7 2: Global: Rare Earth Metals Production by Country (in Metric Tons), 2003-2010
Table 7 3: Global: Rare Earth Metals Production by Country & Mine Forecast (in Metric Tons), 2011-2015
Table 7 4: Global: Distribution of Elements in Various Rare Earth Mines, (in %)
Table 7 5: Bayan Obo Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 6: Longnan Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 7: Xunwu Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 8: India Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 9: Eastern Coast Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 10: Lahat Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 11: Mt Weld Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 12: Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 13: Nolans Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 14: Steenkampskraal Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 15: Nechalacho Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 16: Kvanefjeld Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 17: Dong Pao Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 18: Dubbo Zirconia Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)
Table 7 19: Global: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Region & Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010
Table 7 20: Global: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Region & Application Forecast, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Table 7 21: China: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010 & 2015
Table 7 22: Japan & Northeast Asia: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010 & 2015
Table 7 23: US: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010 & 2015
Table 8 1: Global: Supply of Various Rare Earth Elements (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 8 2: Global: Composition of Various Rare Earth Elements, (in %) 2010-2015
Table 8 3: Global: Supply & Demand of Various Rare Earth Elements, (in Metric Tons), 2015
Table 8 4: Terbium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 5: Global: Terbium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 8 6: Dysprosium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 7: Global: Dysprosium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 8 8: Neodymium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 9: Global: Neodymium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 8 10: Europium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 11: Global: Europium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 8 12: Yttrium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 13: Global: Yttrium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 8 14: Lanthanum: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 15: Global: Lanthanum: Production Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 8 16: Cerium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 17: Global: Cerium: Production Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 8 18: Praseodymium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 19: Global: Praseodymium: Production Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 8 20: Samarium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk
Table 8 21: Global: Samarium: Production Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015
Table 9 1: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements by Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 2: Global: Share of Rare Earth Elements by Application, (in %), 2010-2015
Table 9 3: Global: Production of NdFeB Magnets & Rare Earth Element Consumption, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 4: Global: Production of NiMH Battery Alloys & Rare Earth Element Consumption, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 5: Global: Demand for Auto Catalysts & Rare Earth Elements Consumption, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 6: Global: Demand of Cerium Oxide for Diesel Fuel Borne Catalysts, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 7: Global Demand of FCC Catalysts & Rare Earth Element Consumption, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 8: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Phosphors, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 9: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Major Glass Applications (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 10: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Polishing Powders (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 9 11: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Other Applications (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
Table 11 1: Substitution Possibilities in Rare Earth Elements
Table 11 2: Material Shortfall Strategies by Rare Earth Reserve Rich Countries
Table 11 3: Material Shortfall Strategies by Countries Not Having Rich Rare Earth Reserves
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