India LPG Market by 2030 - Evaluating Demand Outlook & Emerging Business Opportunities
India becomes 2nd largest LPG importer globally
Indian LPG imports have been registering some remarkable trends in the last 10 years. The growth trends over the last 10 years, 5 years and 1 year are: 17% CAGR (FY07 to FY17), 14% CAGR (FY12 to FY17) and 23%. At nearly 11 million tonnes in FY17, India surpassed Japan’s imports at 10.6 million tonnes.
Sustained growth in LPG consumption, new demand centers & demand drivers in development
The government has gone full throttle in promoting LPG as a reliable fuel through schemes such as Pahal, Ujjwala, Direct Benefit Transfer and 'Give it Up' which led to increased adoption of LPG in residential segment. While 'Pahal' got enlisted under Guinness Book of World Record for its largest cash transfer at a whopping USD 6.5 billion. All the same, under the Ujjwala scheme free LPG connections will be provided to 5 crore poor households by 2019.
A rapid increase in urban population combined with increasing LPG penetration in rural areas has resulted in a 10% growth in LPG consumption, making India the second largest LPG consumer in the World at 19 million tonne per year. Based on Government's continued efforts to promote clean fuel and increased adoption by consumers, LPG consumption is expected to see a sustained double-digit growth in the years to come.
Avenue for market diversity driven by favorable prices
While over 90% of demand for LPG comes from residential consumers, a consistent hike in the excise duty for automotive fuels such as diesel and petrol has made commercial LPG a favorable option for AutoLPG segment. Owing to a significant drop in the crude oil prices and favorable economics vis a vis petrol and diesel, AutoLPG sales registered a growth of 4.9% during FY17. According to SIAM, the domestic passenger vehicle sales is likely to reach 7%-9% growth in FY18.
Significant investments and infrastructure strengthening in pipeline for LPG sector
The ongoing upsurge in LPG consumption as well as penetration in rural segment is driven by LPG’s practical advantage and an enhanced positive perception as an agent for women empowerment and social change. With new geographical shifts & expansions in demand base, there is a significant potential for LPG infrastructure addition and geographical diversification.
Indian LPG imports have been registering some remarkable trends in the last 10 years. The growth trends over the last 10 years, 5 years and 1 year are: 17% CAGR (FY07 to FY17), 14% CAGR (FY12 to FY17) and 23%. At nearly 11 million tonnes in FY17, India surpassed Japan’s imports at 10.6 million tonnes.
Sustained growth in LPG consumption, new demand centers & demand drivers in development
The government has gone full throttle in promoting LPG as a reliable fuel through schemes such as Pahal, Ujjwala, Direct Benefit Transfer and 'Give it Up' which led to increased adoption of LPG in residential segment. While 'Pahal' got enlisted under Guinness Book of World Record for its largest cash transfer at a whopping USD 6.5 billion. All the same, under the Ujjwala scheme free LPG connections will be provided to 5 crore poor households by 2019.
A rapid increase in urban population combined with increasing LPG penetration in rural areas has resulted in a 10% growth in LPG consumption, making India the second largest LPG consumer in the World at 19 million tonne per year. Based on Government's continued efforts to promote clean fuel and increased adoption by consumers, LPG consumption is expected to see a sustained double-digit growth in the years to come.
Avenue for market diversity driven by favorable prices
While over 90% of demand for LPG comes from residential consumers, a consistent hike in the excise duty for automotive fuels such as diesel and petrol has made commercial LPG a favorable option for AutoLPG segment. Owing to a significant drop in the crude oil prices and favorable economics vis a vis petrol and diesel, AutoLPG sales registered a growth of 4.9% during FY17. According to SIAM, the domestic passenger vehicle sales is likely to reach 7%-9% growth in FY18.
Significant investments and infrastructure strengthening in pipeline for LPG sector
The ongoing upsurge in LPG consumption as well as penetration in rural segment is driven by LPG’s practical advantage and an enhanced positive perception as an agent for women empowerment and social change. With new geographical shifts & expansions in demand base, there is a significant potential for LPG infrastructure addition and geographical diversification.
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. GLOBAL LPG MARKET OUTLOOK
a. Demand – Supply trend
b. International LPG/C3 & C4 pricing trend
c. Major LPG hubs
d. India's footprint on Global LPG map
3. STATUS OF LPG INFRASTRUCTURE & PENETRATION IN INDIA
a. LPG Pipelines: Readiness, Regional spread, Capacity and Usage
b. Domestic LPG production capacity: Refineries & Fractionators
c. Growth in number of LPG connections
d. Existing and Emerging (Proposed/Planned/Upcoming) LPG Import Terminals
4. LPG INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
a. Government Agencies
b. Private Associations
c. Key Public & Private Players
5. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
a. Mapping key public and private sector players
b. Market positioning and key strengths (including control over supply chain)
6. SNAP-SHOT OF PRESENT AND UPCOMING GOVERNMENT POLICIES FOR LPG SECTOR IN INDIA
7. LPG PRICE INDEXATION
a. Competing Fuels – Furnace Oil, Naphtha, HSD-Auto, Petrol, PNG and CNG
b. Competing Segments – Residential, Transport, Commercial and Industrial
c. Imported LPG vs. LNG
8. EVOLUTION OF LPG CONSUMPTION IN INDIA
a. Total consumption increase
b. Historic growth trends for LPG consumption
c. Demand drivers of LPG in India
9. FUTURE OUTLOOK ON LPG DEMAND (2017-2030), BASED ON
a. Residential Segment
b. Transport Segment
c. Industrial Segment
d. Commercial Segment
10. EXISTING AND FUTURE OUTLOOK ON LPG IMPORTS IN INDIA (2017-2030)
a. Historic LPG Imports Trend
b. Major international LPG supply destinations
c. Indian Refinery and Fractionator Potential for domestic LPG production
i. Scenario - A
ii. Scenario – B
d. Outlook on India’s dependence on LPG imports based on Scenario A and Scenario B vis-a-vis projected demand
11. HIGH-LEVEL ASSESSMENT OF ADEQUACY OF EXISTING LPG IMPORT TERMINALS TO MEET DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP
a. Existing LPG import terminal capacity and through-put
b. Opportunity for capacity enhancement or new capacity addition
12. EMERGING DEMAND FOR LPG CYLINDERS (IN NOS.) AND ITS HIGH-LEVEL IMPACT ON THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN OF CYLINDER RELATED MANUFACTURING AND IMPORTS
13. OVERVIEW ON OVERALL INVESTMENT POTENTIAL IN LPG SECTOR IN INDIA
14. CONCLUSION
2. GLOBAL LPG MARKET OUTLOOK
a. Demand – Supply trend
b. International LPG/C3 & C4 pricing trend
c. Major LPG hubs
d. India's footprint on Global LPG map
3. STATUS OF LPG INFRASTRUCTURE & PENETRATION IN INDIA
a. LPG Pipelines: Readiness, Regional spread, Capacity and Usage
b. Domestic LPG production capacity: Refineries & Fractionators
c. Growth in number of LPG connections
d. Existing and Emerging (Proposed/Planned/Upcoming) LPG Import Terminals
4. LPG INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
a. Government Agencies
b. Private Associations
c. Key Public & Private Players
5. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
a. Mapping key public and private sector players
b. Market positioning and key strengths (including control over supply chain)
6. SNAP-SHOT OF PRESENT AND UPCOMING GOVERNMENT POLICIES FOR LPG SECTOR IN INDIA
7. LPG PRICE INDEXATION
a. Competing Fuels – Furnace Oil, Naphtha, HSD-Auto, Petrol, PNG and CNG
b. Competing Segments – Residential, Transport, Commercial and Industrial
c. Imported LPG vs. LNG
8. EVOLUTION OF LPG CONSUMPTION IN INDIA
a. Total consumption increase
b. Historic growth trends for LPG consumption
c. Demand drivers of LPG in India
9. FUTURE OUTLOOK ON LPG DEMAND (2017-2030), BASED ON
a. Residential Segment
b. Transport Segment
c. Industrial Segment
d. Commercial Segment
10. EXISTING AND FUTURE OUTLOOK ON LPG IMPORTS IN INDIA (2017-2030)
a. Historic LPG Imports Trend
b. Major international LPG supply destinations
c. Indian Refinery and Fractionator Potential for domestic LPG production
i. Scenario - A
ii. Scenario – B
d. Outlook on India’s dependence on LPG imports based on Scenario A and Scenario B vis-a-vis projected demand
11. HIGH-LEVEL ASSESSMENT OF ADEQUACY OF EXISTING LPG IMPORT TERMINALS TO MEET DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP
a. Existing LPG import terminal capacity and through-put
b. Opportunity for capacity enhancement or new capacity addition
12. EMERGING DEMAND FOR LPG CYLINDERS (IN NOS.) AND ITS HIGH-LEVEL IMPACT ON THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN OF CYLINDER RELATED MANUFACTURING AND IMPORTS
13. OVERVIEW ON OVERALL INVESTMENT POTENTIAL IN LPG SECTOR IN INDIA
14. CONCLUSION
