Demand Outlook for M&HCV in India by 2025: Uptick in Economic Growth & push to phase out M&HCV over 10 years old can see demand doubling from current levels.

October 2016 | 135 pages | ID: D8320F2D48DEN
Infra Insights

Abstracts

After a prolonged period of lull, M&HCV manufacturers are cheering the revival in mojo on the demand front which promises to soon touch the peak production volumes of ~390,000 seen in 2011-12 breached in next 1-2 years. As indicated in the graph below, there is a very strong co-relation between GDP and M&HCV growth, as a result of which uptick in economic activity has led to strong revival in M&HCV industry. There is a huge tail wind that the sector will experience in the times to come and the OEMs should gear up to make the most of it.

Ministry of Roads Transport & Highways (MoRTH) aims to significantly improve the roads & highways infrastructure in India and has aim to increase the national highways network from existing length of from 97,135 KM to 200,000 KM by 2020. And last 2 years achievements indicates that the government can well surpass this target; According to a 20 April statement by the ministry of road transport and highways, the target for the award of contracts for national highway projects in 2016-17 is 25,000km compared with 10,000km in 2015-16. Most important reform of one nation one tax is another important milestone and with GST set to be implemented, the overall efficiency of supply chain will increase. GST is good and bad news both for the M&HCV industry, as it will lead to efficient utilization of current fleet but will also means shorter replacement cycle.

Effective and Efficient public transportation system is a very important requirement in any city to make the same live able. Many public transportation companies are mulling their capacity expansion plans to accommodate the deluge of urban population growth likely to be witnessed in the times to come. Smart City projects will anyways have smart transportations which will drive demand for new buses. Another important demand driver for M&HCV industry is the move towards phasing out of vehicles over 10 years of age to curb pollution issue prevalent across major metros.

In order to provide visibility into the future demand for M&HCV, InfraInsights has initiated its research 'Demand Outlook for M&HCV in India by 2025: Uptick in Economic Growth & push to phase out M&HCV over 10 years old can see demand doubling from current levels' to quantify how the projected economic growth is likely to spur demand for M&HCV over the next 10 years. Key objective of the report is to provide critical analysis on forthcoming demand prospects in different scenarios of freight volumes, GDP growth, threat from emerging transport options (IWT/Coastal Shipment) etc. InfraInsights report will provide grounds up view on what is likely to be the demand for M&HCV by 2025.

Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. RESEARCH APPROACH & METHODOLOGY

3. FACTORS THAT DRIVE DEMAND FOR M&HCV

a. GDP Growth
b. Import/Exports Growth
c. Industrialization
d. Growth in Road Freight Volumes (BTKM)

4. TREND IN DEMAND FOR M&HCV IN INDIA

a. Production trend since 2001
b. Sales Trend (domestic) since 2001
c. Exports Trend since 2001

5. M&HCV MARKET LANDSCAPE IN INDIA

a. OEMs
b. Dealer/Distributor
c. Service Centers
d. NBFCs
e. Consumers - Logistics service providers

6. M&HCV APPLICATION LANDSCAPE

a. Trucks - short to long distance haulage
b. Buses - Public & Private Sector

7. M&HCV MARKET IN 2015-16

a. Market Size & Share by M&HCV OEMs
b. Market Size & Share by Trucks & Buses
c. Market Size & Share by GVWR - upto 7.5T, 7.5-12T, 12-16T, 16-25T, 25T and above)
d. Market Size & Share by Regions/States
e. Market Size & Share by end use application - tipper, haulage
f. Market Size & Share of Tipper Trucks by configuration (4X2,8X4,6X4, 10X4 axles)
g. Market Size & Share of Tipper Trucks by end use application - construction vs mining
h. Market Size & Share of Tipper Trucks by GVWR (up to 50T)
i. Market Size & Share by configuration - Tractor Truck, Non Tractor Truck

8. TREND & FORECAST ON PROCUREMENT OF BUSES BY PUBLIC BUS TRANSPORTATION COMPANIES IN INDIA

9. AGING ANALYSIS OF BUS FLEET IN DIFFERENT PUBLIC BUS TRANSPORTATION COMPANIES IN INDIA

10. FUTURE GROWTH DRIVERS & RISKS

a. Implementation of Goods & Services Tax
b. Ministry of Road & Transport Policies on Replacement Cycle
c. Growth in E-Commerce
d. Exports & Imports Scenario
e. Growth in National Highway Network & Express Ways
f. Growth in Port & Road Connectivity
g. Increasing Freight Rates of Railways
h. Smart Transportation projects across different metros
i. Emerging alternative transportation alternatives like IWT/Coastal Shipping

11. M&HCV MANUFACTURING CAPACITY OF OEMS - CURRENT VS PLANNED

a. Manufacturing Capacity
b. Current Capacity Utilization
c. Projected Capacity Addition

12. M&HCV DEMAND BY 2025 - OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO, PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO, REALISTIC SCENARIO

a. Market Size & Share by M&HCV OEMs
b. Market Size & Share by New vs Replacement demand
c. Market Size & Share by Trucks & Buses
d. Market Size & Share by GVWR - upto 7.5T, 7.5-12T, 12-16T, 16-25T, 25T and above)
e. Market Size & Share by Regions/States
f. Market Size & Share by end use application - tipper, haulage
g. Market Size & Share of Tipper Trucks by configuration (4X2,8X4,6X4, 10X4 axles)
h. Market Size & Share of Tipper Trucks by end use application - construction vs mining
i. Market Size & Share of Tipper Trucks by GVWR (up to 50T)
j. Market Size & Share by configuration - Tractor Truck, Non Tractor Truck

13. M&HCV INDUSTRY SWOT ANALYSIS

14. PRODUCT PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS OF M&HCV OEMS

a. Tata Motors
b. Ashok Leyland
c. Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles Ltd
d. Volvo Ltd
e. Mahindra & Mahindra
f. AMW Motors
g. Daimler
h. SML Isuzu
i. MAN
j. Scania