Special Research Report on China Grain Market

Date: February 22, 2011
Price:
US$ 6,000.00
Publisher: Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Co., Ltd
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: S011C350E62EN
Leaflet:

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Special Research Report on China Grain Market
Background

Under the loose monetary policy of the central bank since 2009, in early 2010 the money supply of China exceeded 60 trillion, more than the U.S. money supply of 55 trillion. China became the world's largest country in money supply. As of October 2010, the total money supply in China exceeded 80 trillion. Excess money supply leads to price volatility of some in-shortage farm products and grain market is also affected.

The 'Proposal on Making the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the National Economy and Social Development' was adopted on the fifth plenary meeting of the 17th CPC Central committee on October 18, 2010. The proposal proposed: stick to the path of agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics, take “to ensure national food security” as a primary goal, accelerate the changes in agricultural development methods, improve comprehensive agricultural productive capacity, risk resisting capacity and market competitiveness. To implement the productive capacity planning of tens of thousand mt newly added grains nationwide, to intensify investments in major grain producing areas and benefit compensation for peasants. The 2010 Central Economic Work Conference pointed out: to promote the development of modern agriculture and ensure the effective supply of agricultural products. To do everything possible to ensure the supply safety of major agricultural products, to stabilize grain planting area, to increase subsidies for agricultural production, to steadily raise the minimum grain purchasing price, to intensify the efforts on investment in major grain producing areas and benefit compensation and to implement the 'rice bag' responsibility system of provincial governors.

The most prominent issue that China’s agricultural production faced in 2010 is the unusual weather conditions and the repeating of frequent agriculture disasters; in 2011, the openning of grain production will encounter major disasters once again.

According to the National General Headquarters for Flood Control and Drought Relief: as of December 1, 2010, accumulative area of drought-hit arable lands is 26,533 thousand hectares, drought-hit crops area is 13,267 thousand hectares. During the 2010 flood season, the nation’s rainfall is heavy and frequent with long cycle and large quantities. Precipitation in many parts of the country exceeded historical extremes. The country's 30 provinces and autonomous regions experienced varying degrees of flood disasters and extraordinay floods occurred with more than 100 rivers far above historical level. Flood disasters resulted in a total of 18,000 thousand hectares of crops affected and direct economic loss was 34.75 billion yuan.

According to news from the Ministry of Agriculture:in 2010 a large area of winter wheat was affected by low temperature and freezing disaster. In northeast and northwest agricultural region, a rare low-temperature in history occurred during the winter and spring period. Entering the spring, the temperature was consistently low. Spring land preparation and sowing time were generally delayed for 7-10 days, resulting in sowing period shortened.

BOABC’s monitoring shows: since October 2010, the nation's temperature is 2-4℃ higher in most regions. Rainfall in winter wheat main producing areas generally is 50%-80%less than normal , of which precipitation in the main producing areas in Huang huai is 80%-100% less than normal. As of mid-December, drought-hit area of winter wheat in Huanghuai and Jiang Huai region was 3866 thousand hectares, high temperature and drought have a serious impact on the production of wheat.

According to the communique of the National Bureau of Statistics: in 2010, grain sown area of the country was 109,872 thousand hectares, an increase of 0.8%; the country's total grain output was 546.41 million mt, an increase of 2.9%. Among them, the sown area of summer grain was 27,421 thousand hectares, an increase of 0.14%; early paddy sown area was 5794 thousand hectares, down by 1.3%; sown area of autumn grain was 76,657 thousand hectares, an increase of 1.21%

How willl the excessive money supply affect the price of staple foods? How to interprete the agriculture and food policy of the central authorities? What is the impact on China's food security production? What is the future development trend?

What are the impacts of the serious natural disasters in 2010 on the overall situation of grain production, product structure, supply and demand of the main varieties and grain security, regional supply and demand balance and grain prices, etc.? The opening of 2011 once again faced serious natural disasters, how will grain production be in the new year? What effect will be generated on the grain market in 2011?

By answering these questions in detail, this report provides various types of businesses, trade agencies, investment institutions and individuals that hope of successful investments in the grain industry with references for effective decision-making; this report also can provide references for grain and agriculture-related policy decisions of government, research institutions , international organizations and international institutions to study China’s grain and the World grain.
1 THE IMPACT OF MACRO ECONOMY ON CHINA’S GRAIN MARKET

1.1 Impact of global economic hot spot data on China’s grain market
1.2 Impact of macro economic hot spot data of China on China’s grain market

2 INTERPRETATION AND ANALYSIS OF IMPORTANT POLICIES AND MAJOR EVENTS OF AGRICULTURE, GRAIN, GRAIN PROCESSING AND TRADE INDUSTRY

2.1 Impact of China’s policies about agriculture,rural work , grain industry and development trend
2.2 Impact of China’s grain planting subsidy policies,grain production and development trend
2.3 Impact of China’s grain purchasing and storage policy,changes in 2010 and development trend analysis
2.4 Progress of China’s grain circulation system reform and future development trend
2.5 Impact of China’s grain processing policy and foreign trade policy
2.6 Analysis of major event of the industry
  2.6.1Abolition of the impact of “flour brightener” on flour industry
  2.6.2 Impact of Yihai’s expansion of flour and rice deep-processing
  2.6.3 Impact of COFCO’s expansion of rice and flour processing business and COFCO’s whole-industry chain strategy
  2.6.4 Impact of China Grain Reserves Corporation’s being forced out of grain trade business on the industry
  2.6.5 Impact of NDRC’s requiring five enterprises including COFCO and Wudeli to limit price on the industry

3 THE DEVELOPMENT OF GRAIN MARKETS IN THE WORLD'S MAJOR COUNTRIES

3.1 Analysis and forecast of wheat production and supply and demand balance of the world and major countries
3.2 Analysis and forecast of rice production and supply and demand balance of the world and major countries
3.3 Analysis and forecast of corn production and supply and demand balance of the world and major countries
3.4 Analysis and forecast of overal grain production and supply and demand balance of the world and major countries

4 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND GRAIN CONSUMPTION OF CHINESE RESIDENTS

4.1 China’s food consumption and the corresponding grain consumption
  4.1.1 China's population growth and changes in regional composition
  4.1.2 China's per capita income growth and changes in per capita food consumption structure
  4.1.3 Analysis and forecast of yearly rice consumption and corresponding paddy consumption of Chinese residents
  4.1.4 Analysis and forecast of yearly flour consumption and corresponding wheat consumption of Chinese residents
  4.1.5 Analysis and forecast of yearly rice & flour and other cereal products consumption and corresponding grain consumption of Chinese residents
  4.1.6 Analysis and forecast of yearly animal & poultry consumption and corresponding grain consumption of Chinese residents
  4.1.7 Analysis and forecast of yearly wine consumption and corresponding grain consumption of Chinese residents
  4.1.8 Total grain consumption brought by food consumption of Chinese residents
4.2 Food consumption by regions and corresponding grain consumption of Chinese residents
  4.2.1 Annual regional distribution of Chinese residents
  4.2.2 Constitute of yearly quantity of residents’ food consumption by regions
  4.2.3 Residents’ yearly rice consumption and corresponding paddy consumption by regions
  4.2.4 Residents’ yearly flour consumption and corresponding wheat consumption by regions
  4.2.5 Residents’ consumption of other food products and corresponding grain consumption by regions
  4.2.6 Residents’ animal & poultry products consumption and corresponding feed grain consumption by regions
  4.2.7 Residents’ wine consumption and corresponding grain consumptions by regions
  4.2.8 Total grain consumption of residents, by regions

5 CHINA’S GRAIN PRODUCTION

5.1 Analysis of China's grain production
  5.1.1 Overall status and influencing factors analysis of grain production of China and main producing areas
  5.1.2 China’s wheat production, regional distribution and influencing factors
  5.1.3 China’s paddy production, regional distribution and influencing factors
  5.1.4 China’s corn production, regional distribution and influencing factors
  5.1.5 China’s side crops production, regional distribution and influencing factors
  5.1.6 China’s grain seed consumption (including amounts, consumptions by varieties and by regions)
  5.1.7 Commercial feed consumption of China’s main grain varieties in general, by varieties and by regions
  5.1.8 Comparison of advantages and disadvantages of grain production of China and other major countries
  5.1.9 China’s grain production potential analysis

6 ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S GRAIN PROCESSING INDUSTRY

6.1 Analysis of China’s flour processing industry
  6.1.1 Conditions of China’s flour processing industry of the year
  6.1.2 Annual flour production, wheat consumption and rate of productive capacity utilization of China’s flour processing industry
  6.1.3 Regional production distribution, wheat consumption and influencing factors of China’ flour processing industry
  6.1.4 Market structure and development trend of China’s flour processing industry
6.2 Analysis of China’s paddy processing industry
  6.2.1 Conditions of China’s paddy processing industry
  6.2.2 Annual production, paddy consumption and rate of productive capacity utilization of China’s paddy processing industry
  6.2.3 Regional production distribution, regional paddy consumption and influencing factors of China’s paddy processing industry
  6.2.4 Market structure and development trend of China’s paddy processing industry
6.3 Analysis of China’s other food products processing industry
  6.3.1 Basic conditions of China’s rice & flour products industry
  6.3.2 Production and consumption of China’s major rice & flour products
  6.3.3 Regional structure and influencing factors of China’s major rice & flour products industry
  6.3.4 Market structure and development trend of China’s major rice & flour products
6.4 Analysis of China’s feed processing industry
  6.4.1 Conditions of China’s feed processing industry
  6.4.2 Production of China’s feed processing industry, energy feed consumption and rate of productive capacity utilization
  6.4.3 Regional structure, corn consumption and influencing factors of China’s feed processing industry
  6.4.4 Market structure and development trend of China’s feed processing industry
6.5 China’s grain deep-processing industry
  6.5.1 Conditions
  6.5.2 Production of main products of China’s grain deep-processing industry (starch and processed products, white wine, beer, alcohol, monosodium, lysine and citric acide) and analysis and forecast of grain consumption
  6.5.3 Regional structure of main products of China’s grain deep-processing industry (starch and processed products, white wine, beer, alcohol, monosodium, lysine and citric acide) and analysis and forecast of grain consumption
  6.5.4 Market structure and development trend of main products of China’s grain deep-processing industry (starch and processed products, white wine, beer, alcohol, monosodium, lysine and citric acide)
  6.5.5 Total industrial consumption and regions distribution of China’s grain

7 CHINA’S GRAIN TRADE STATUDE

7.1 Domestic trade volume and inventory composition analysis of China’s grain
  7.1.1 Analysis and Forecast of the total commercial grain of China’s main grains
  7.1.2 Purchasing volume of major grain varieties in China’s main grain producing regions and total purchase and sales amount of state-owned grains by province
  7.1.3 Total purchasing volume of the State-owned enterprises of China’s main grain varieties
  7.1.4 The process of auction of China’s minimum-purchasing price wheat and analysis and forecast of China’s wheat end-inventory constitute
  7.1.5 Process of auction of China’s state-owned paddy and analysis and forecast of China’s paddy end-invenotory constitute.
  7.1.6 Process of auction of China’s state-owned corn and analysis and forecast of China’s paddy end-invenotory constitute.
7.2 Trade analysis of China’s grain by regions
  7.2.1 Analysis and Forecast of the total annual commercial grain of China’s grain by regions
  7.2.2 Analysis and Forecast of the total annual purchasing and sales of China’s state-owned businesses, by province
  7.2.3 Regional processing and trade volume analysis and forecast of China’s grain
  7.2.4 Regional processing and trade volume analysis and forecast of China’s grain
  7.2.5 Analysis and forecast of China’s wheat processing trade volume
  7.2.6 Analysis and forecast of China’s corn processing trade volume
7.3 Analysis and forecast of China’s grain trade
  7.3.1 Imp.&Exp. analysis and forecast of China’s wheat and wheat products (floure, wheat flour, wheat gluten and flour-made food, etc.)
  7.3.2 Imp.& Exp. analysis and forecast of China’s paddy
  7.3.3 Imp.& Exp. analysis and forecast of China’s corn and corn starch
  7.3.4 Imp.&Exp. analysis and forecast of China’s major other crops varieties and the processed products
  7.3.5 Imp.&Exp. analysis and forecast of China’s grain deep-processing products

8 SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE AND SAFETY STATUS OF CHINA’S GRAIN

8.1 Analysis of China’s grain supply and demand balance
  8.1.1 Analysis and forecast of the overall supply and demand balance and food safety status of China’s grain
  8.1.2 Analysis and forecast of the basic supply and demand balance and food safety status of China’s paddy
  8.1.3 Analysis and forecast of the basic supply and demand balance and food safety status of China’s wheat
  8.1.4 Analysis and forecast of the basic supply and demand balance and food safety status of China’s paddy
  8.1.5 Analysis and forecast of the basic supply and demand balance and food safety status of China’s corn
  8.1.6 Analysis and forecast of the basic supply and demand balance of China’s side crops
8.2 Analysis of China’s grain supply and demand balance, by regions
  8.2.1 Analysis of overall supply and demand of China’s grain, by regions
  8.2.2 Analysis of China’s paddy supply and demand balance, by regions
  8.2.3 Analysis of China’s wheat supply and demand balance, by regions
  8.2.4 Analysis of China’s paddy supply and demand balance, by regions
  8.2.5 Analysis of China’s corn supply and demand balance, by regions
  8.2.6 Analysis of China’s side crops supply and demand balance, by regions

9 CHINA’S GRAIN PRICE TREND

9.1 Analysis and forecast of international major grain price trend
  9.1.1 Analysis and forecast of international wheat price trend
  9.1.2 Analysis and forecast of international corn price trend
  9.1.3 Review and outlook of international paddy price trend
9.2 Analysis and forecast of China’s major grain and grain products price trend
  9.2.1 Analysis and forecast of China’s grain price general trend
  9.2.2 Analysis and forecast of China’s wheat and flour price trend
  9.2.3 Analysis and forecast of China’s paddy and rice price trend
  9.2.4 Analysis and forecast of China’s corn price trend
9.3 Analysis and forecast of the comprehensive food price index of China and the world
  9.3.1 Analysis and forecast of the comprehensive food spot-price index of China
  9.3.2 Analysis and forecast of the comprehensive food futures-price index of China
  9.3.3 Analysis and forecast of the comprehensive food spot-price index of the world
  9.3.4 Analysis and forecast of the comprehensive food futures-price index of the world
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