China fertilizer Market Review & Outlook Proposal 2009/2010

Date: March 22, 2010
Pages: 145
Price:
US$ 1,800.00
Publisher: Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Co., Ltd
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: C9DDE2EB884EN
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China fertilizer Market Review & Outlook Proposal 2009/2010
Background

In 2009, under the “positive fiscal, easy monetary” policy, the government has implemented a large-scale economic stimulus plan, substantially lower interest rates, take various measures to boost domestic demand and encourage exports. The slowing down momentum of China’s macroeconomic growth has been effectively contained, and resumed an increase of over 8% compared the same period last year in the second of 2009. As for external economies, the global economic recession caused by the international financial crisis also has a certain degree of recovery, the negative impact on China’s economy began to be weakened.

In this context, China’s fertilizer industry trends improved in the first half of 2009. Since the beginning of the third quarter of 2008, weak domestic consumption, stagnated export, plummeted prices, production decline and other unfavorable situation improved in varying degrees, industry profit margin also appeared several months of recovery.

However, the situation of China’s chemical fertilizer oversupply further developed, and the situation in policy environment, production and logistics costs and raw material supply remains rather grim, coupled with the impact of a prolonged slump in international prices, domestic fertilizer market in the second half backed into the bottom. Prices of various fertilizers had a substantial decline. The industry profit margin is comprehensively lower than that of last year, the loss-making percentage close to the five-year highs.

BOABC expected that favorable factors that affect 2010 fertilizer market include: macro-economic policies will continue to take stimulating economic growth and expansion of domestic market as the main objective (although its intensity may be reduced); government continues to increase agricultural investment and subsidies, especially agricultural material subsidies directly for farmers to purchase fertilizers is expected to increase year by year, and the linkage mechanism with fertilizer prices is established; grain purchase price is also increasing steadily; Year 2009 is the 7th consecutive year of grain harvest, which is conducive to supporting the growth of fertilizer consumption; investment policies in fertilizer circulation has basically liberalized; low export tariff policy in 2010 will continue to be implemented, and so on.

Negative factors include: domestic and international economic situation are still in recovery phase, the capacity of fertilizer consumption growth is limited; it is not only difficult to alleviate the current situation of fertilizer oversupply, but also the situation will be intensified in 2010; production, logistics, environmental protection and other costs are still on the rise; dependence on potash, sulfur and other raw materials are still high; preferential policies on fertilizer industries would be phased out, and so on.

Based on a comprehensive review and analysis of 2009 China’s fertilizer market, combined with national economic conditions and policy changes, BOABC will conduct a more in-depth analysis of China’s fertilizer market trend in 2010, make clear judgements and provide references for people who pay attention to China’s fertilizer market at home and abroad to make decisions.
CHAPTER ONE: MACRO-ECONOMY & FERTILIZER INDUSTRY’S DEVELOPMENT

1.1 China’s Economic Situation
  1.1.1 Macro National Economic Situation in 2009 and Trend in 2010
  1.1.2 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of the National Economy
    Table 1.1, Fulfillment of Objectives Set for 2006-2009
  1.1.3 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Agricultural Development
    Table 1.2, Fulfillment of Major Farm Product Supply Objectives Set in 2006-2009
  1.1.4 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Chemical Industry
    Table 1.3,Fulfillment of Major Chemical Product Supply Objectives Set in 2006-2009
  1.1.5 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Fertilizer Industry
    Table 1.4, Fulfillment of Fertilizer Objectives Set for 2006-2009
1.2 Impact on Fertilizer Industry from Agricultural Policy
  1.2.1 Impact on Demand for Fertilizer from Grain Procurement Price Policy
  1.2.2 Impact on Demand for Fertilizer from Direct Grain Subsidy and Integrated Subsidy for Agricultural Means of Production
  1.2.3 Impacts on Fertilizer Industry from Other Agricultural Policies
1.3 Impacts on Fertilizer Production from Resource Policy Adjustment
  1.3.1 Impacts from Coal Resource Restructuring Plan
  1.3.2 Impacts from Natural Gas Price Policy Adjustment
  1.3.3 Impacts from Trend of Mine Resource Policy
1.4 Impacts on Investment and Development of Fertilizer Industry from Currency and Financial Policy Adjustment
1.5 Impact on Fertilizer Logistics from Fuel Oil Policy Adjustment
1.6 Impacts on Fertilizer Industry from Development of Chemical Industry
1.7 Investment in Fertilizer Industry
  1.7.1 Investment in Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry
    Table 1.5, Investment in the Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009
  1.7.2 Investment in Phosphate fertilizer Industry
    Table 1.6, Investment in the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009
  1.7.3 Investment in Potash fertilizer Industry
    Table 1.7, Investment in the Potash Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009
  1.7.4 Investment in Compound Fertilizer Industry
    Table 1.8, Investment in the Compound Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009
  1.7.5 Investment in Organic Fertilizer Industry
    Table 1.9, Investment in the Organic Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009
1.8 Analysis of Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness
  1.8.1 Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness
    Table 1.10, Competitiveness index of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry
  1.8.2 Phosphate Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness
    Table 1.11, Competitiveness index of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
  1.8.3 Potash fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness
    Table 1.12, Competitiveness index of Potash Fertilizer Industry
  1.8.4 Compound Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness
    Table 1.13, Competitiveness index of Compound Fertilizer Industry
1.9 Structural Changes of Fertilizer Industry
    Figure 1.1 Proportion of China Fertilizer Production
1.10 Development of Fertilizer Distribution System
  1.10.1 Policy Change on Fertilizer Circulation System
  1.10.2 Development of Chain Operation of Agricultural Means of Production
  1.10.3 Construction of Domestic Marketing Network of Sinochem Fertilizer
  1.10.4 Construction of Marketing Network of Sino-agri
  1.10.5 Development of Logistics of Agricultural Means of Production of Post System
  1.10.6 Sub Distribution and Circulation of Foreign-funded Companies

CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW & OUTLOOK OF FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2009-2010

2.1 Review of Fertilizer Market in 2009
  2.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Table 2.1, Economic Indicators of Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Figure 2.1, Profit margin of chemical fertilizer manufacture
  2.1.2 Analysis of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2009
  2.1.3 Impacts from International Fertilizer Market in 2009
    Figure 2.2, International Fertilizer Prices
  2.1.4 Impacts from Export Duty Policy in 2009
    Figure 2.3,Duty Rate for China’s Exported Fertilizer,2008-2009
  2.1.5 Analysis of Fertilizer Input and Output of Planting Industry in 2009
    Figure 2.4, Returns from Major Crops in China
    Figure 2.5, Grain/Fertilizer Price Ratio
  2.1.6 Fertilizer Production in 2009
    Figure 2.6, Monthly Total Fertilizer Production
  2.1.7 Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2009
    Figure 2.7 China Fertilizer Net Imports
    Figure 2.8, Proportion of China Fertilizer Imports, 2009
    Figure 2.9, Proportion of China Fertilizer Imports, 2008
    Figure 2.10, Proportion of China Fertilizer Exports, 2009
    Figure 2.11, Proportion of China Fertilizer Exports, 2008
  2.1.8 Fertilizer Consumption in 2009
  2.1.9 Fertilizer Price Trend in 2009
    Figure 2.12, Producer’s Prices of Fertilizers, 2007-2009
    Figure 2.13, Retail Prices of Fertilizers, 1998-2009
2.2 Outlook of Fertilizer Market in 2010
  2.2.1 Outlook of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2010
  2.2.2 Estimates of Fertilizer Input/Yields in Crop Farming in 2010
  2.2.3 Fertilizer Import Quotas & Import Agents in 2010
    Table 2.2, Preferential Tariff Rate Fertilizer Import Quotas for 2010
  2.2.4 Fertilizer Import & Export Tax Policy for 2010
    Figure 2.14,Duty Rate for China’s Exported Fertilizer,2009-2010
  2.2.5 Policy Direction on Fertilizer Market in 2010
    2.2.5.1 Policy on Industry and Investment
    2.2.5.2 Taxation and Subsidy Policies
    2.2.5.3 Policy on Reserve during Offseason
    2.2.5.4 Fertilizer Import & Export Policy in 2010
    2.2.5.5 Fertilizer Price Policy
    2.2.5.6 Environmental Protection Policy
  2.2.6 Forecast on Fertilizer Production in 2010
  2.2.7 Forecast on Fertilizer Import and Export in 2010
  2.2.8 Forecast on Fertilizer Consumption in 2010

CHAPTER THREE: REVIEW & OUTLOOK OF NITROGEN FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2009-2010

3.1 Review of Nitrogen fertilizer Market in 2009
  3.1.1 Analysis of prosperity Degree of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009
    Table 3.1, Economic Indicators of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Figure 3.1, Profit margin of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry
  3.1.2 Cost and Profit of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Table 3.2, Production Cost of Urea
  3.1.3 Analysis of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Market in 2009
  3.1.4 Output of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009
    Figure 3.2, Monthly Nitrogen Fertilizer Production
    Figure 3.3, Proportion of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production, 2009
    Figure 3.4, Proportion of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production, 2008
  3.1.5 Import and Export of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009
    Figure 3.5, Monthly Urea Exports
  3.1.6 Consumption of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009
  3.1.7 Review of Urea Market in 2009
    3.1.7.1 Analysis of Urea Market in 2009
    3.7.1.2 Urea Production in 2009
    Figure 3.6, Monthly Urea Production
    3.1.7.3 Urea Consumption in 2009
    3.1.7.4 Urea Price Trend in 2009
    Figure 3.7, China Urea Monthly Retail Prices
  3.1.8 ABC Market in 2009
    3.1.8.1 ABC Production in 2009
    3.1.8.2 ABC Consumption in 2009
    3.1.8.3 ABC Price Trend in 2009
    Figure 3.8, China ABC Monthly Retail Prices
  3.1.9 Market of other Nitrogenous Fertilizer Varieties
3.2 Outlook of Nitrogen fertilizer Market in 2010
  3.2.1 Growing Potential of Production Capacity of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2010
  3.2.2 Forecast on Trend of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Market in 2010
  3.2.3 Outlook of Urea Market in 2010
  3.2.4 Impact on Urea Market from Adjustment of Export Duty in 2010
    Figure 3.9, Duty Rate for China’s Exported Urea,2007-2010
  3.2.5 Forecast on Coal and Natural Gas Supply to Nitrogenous Fertilizer Production in 2010
  3.2.6 Estimates of Nitrogen fertilizer production in 2010
  3.2.7 Estimates of Nitrogen fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2010
  3.2.8 Estimates of Nitrogen fertilizer Consumption in 2010

CHAPTER FOUR: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER MARKET 2009-2010

4.1 Review of Phosphate Fertilizer Market in 2009
  4.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Phosphate Industry in 2009
    Table 4.1, Operation Performance of the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Figure 4.1, Profit Margin of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
  4.1.2 Cost and Profit of Phosphate Industry in 2009
    Table 4.2, Production Cost of SSP
  4.1.3 Analysis of Phosphate Market in 2009
  4.1.4 Phosphate Production in 2009
    Figure 4.2, Monthly Phosphate Fertilizer Production
    Figure 4.3, Proportion of Phosphate Fertilizer Production, 2008
    Figure 4.4, Proportion of Phosphate Fertilizer Production, 2009
  4.1.5 Phosphate Imports & Exports in 2009
    Figure 4.5,Monthly TSP Exports
    Figure 4.6,Monthly SSP Exports
  4.1.6 Phosphate Consumption in 2009
  4.1.7 Phosphate Price Trend in 2009
    Figure 4.7, China SSP Monthly Retail Prices
4.2 Outlook of Phosphate Fertilizer Market in 2010
  4.2.1 Outlook of Phosphate Market Trend in 2010
  4.2.2 Forecast on Raw Material Supply for Phosphate Production in 2010
  4.2.3 Forecast on Phosphate Production in 2010
  4.2.4 Forecast on Phosphate Import and Export in 2010
    Figure 4.8,Duty Rate for China’s Exported TSP,2008-2009
    Figure 4.9,Duty Rate for China’s Exported SSP,2008-2009
  4.2.5 Forecast on Phosphate Consumption in 2010

CHAPTER FIVE: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF POTASH FERTILIZER MARKET 2009-2010

  5.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Table 5.1, Operation Performance of the Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2006
    Figure 5.1, Profit Margin of Potash Industry
  5.1.2 Cost and Profit of Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Table 5.2, Production Cost of K-fertilizer
  5.1.3 Potash Fertilizer Production by Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Company
  5.1.4 Progress of Construction of Xinjiang Luobupo Potash Fertilizer Project
  5.1.5 Progress of Other Key Potash Fertilizer Projects
  5.1.6 Progress of Potash Fertilizer Projects in Overseas
  5.1.7 Analysis of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2009
  5.1.8 Potash Fertilizer Production in 2009
    Figure 5.2, Monthly Potash fertilizer Production
  5.1.9 Potash Fertilizer Import and Export in 2009
    Figure 5.3, Monthly MOP Imports
    Figure 5.4, Monthly SOP Imports
  5.1.10 Potash Fertilizer Consumption in 2009
  5.1.11 Trend of Potash Fertilizer Price in 2009
    Figure 5.5, China MOP Monthly Retail Prices
    Figure 5.6, SOP Monthly Retail Prices
    Figure 5.7, China Imported MOP(red) Prices At Ports
    Figure 5.8, China Imported MOP(white) Prices At Ports
5.2 Outlook of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2010
  5.2.1 Growing Potential of Production Capacity of Potash Fertilizer in 2010
  5.2.2 Forecast on Trend of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2010
  5.2.3 Forecast on Potash Fertilizer Output in 2010
  5.2.4 Forecast on Negotiation for Potash Fertilizer Import in 2011
  5.2.5 Forecast on Import and Export of Potash Fertilizer in 2010
  5.2.6 Forecast on Consumption of Potash Fertilizer in 2010

CHAPTER SIX: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF COMPOUND FERTILIZER MARKET 2009-2010

6.1 Review of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2009
  6.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Table 6.1, Operation Performance of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2008
    Figure 6.1, Profit Margin of Compound Fertilizer Industry
  6.1.2 Cost and Profit of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2009
    Table 6.2, Production Cost of Compound Fertilizer
  6.1.3 Impact on Compound Fertilizer Market from Sulfur Import
  6.1.4 Analysis of Trend of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2009
  6.1.5 Compound Fertilizer Production in 2009
    Figure 6.2, Monthly DAP Production
  6.1.6 Import and Export of Compound Fertilizer in 2009
    Figure 6.3, Monthly DAP Imports
    Figure 6.4, Monthly DAP Exports
    Figure 6.5, Monthly MAP Exports
    Figure 6.6, Monthly NPK Imports
    Figure 6.7, Monthly NPK Exports
  6.1.7 Consumption of Compound Fertilizer in 2009
  6.1.8 Price Trend of NPK, DAP and MAP in 2009
    Figure 6.8, China DAP Monthly Retail Prices
    Figure 6.9, China NPK Monthly Retail Prices
    Figure 6.10, China Imported NPK Prices at Ports
6.2 Outlook of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2010
  6.2.1 Growing Potential of Production Capacity of Compound Fertilizer in 2010
  6.2.2 Forecast on Market Trend of Compound Fertilizer in 2010
  6.2.3 Impact on Compound Fertilizer from Adjustment of Export Duty in 2010
    Figure 6.11,Duty Rate for China’s Exported DAP,2007-2010
    Figure 6.12, Duty Rate for China’s Exported MAP, 2008-2010
    Figure 6.13, Duty Rate for China’s Exported NPK, 2008-2010
  6.2.4 Forecast on Compound Fertilizer Output in 2010
  6.2.5 Forecast on Import and Export of Compound Fertilizer in 2010
    6.2.5.1 Forecast of DAP and MAP Import and Export in 2010
    6.2.5.2 Forecast on NPK Import and Export in 2010
  6.2.6 Forecast on Consumption of Compound Fertilizer in 2010

CHAPTER SEVEN: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF RELATED INDUSTRIES 2009-2010

7.1. Review & Outlook of Synthetic Ammonia Market in 2009 ~ 2010
  7.1.1 Coal and Natural Gas Supply to Synthetic Ammonia Producers in 2009
  7.1.2 Output of Synthetic Ammonia in 2009
    Figure 7.1, Monthly Ammonium Production
  7.1.3 Import and Export of Synthetic Ammonia in 2009
  7.1.4 Price Trend of Synthetic Ammonia in 2009
  7.1.5 Forecast on Production of Synthetic Ammonia in 2010
  7.1.6 Forecast on Import and Export of Synthetic Ammonia in 2010
7.2 Review and Outlook of Phosphate Ore in 2009-2010
  7.2.1 Analysis of Domestic Supply of Phosphate Ore
  7.2.2 Output of Phosphate Ore in 2009
    Figure 7.2, Monthly Phosphorite Production
  7.2.3 Import and Export of Phosphate Ore in 2009
    Figure 7.3, Monthly Phosphorite Exports
  7.2.4 Price Trend of Phosphate Ore in 2009
  7.2.5 Forecast on Production of Phosphate Ore in 2010
  7.2.6 Forecast on Import and Export of Phosphate Ore in 2010
7.3 Review and Outlook of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Market in 2009-2010
  7.3.1 Analysis of Supply of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid
  7.3.2 Output of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2009
    Figure 7.4, Monthly Sulphric Acid Production
  7.3.3 Pyrite Production in 2009
    Figure 7.5, Monthly Lump Pyrite Production
  7.3.4 Import and Export of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2009
    Figure 7.6, Monthly Sulfur Imports
  7.3.5 Price Trend of Sulfur, Sulfuric Acid and Pyrite in 2009
  7.3.6 Forecast on Production of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2010
  7.3.7 Forecast on Pyrite Production in 2010
  7.3.8 Forecast on Import of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2010
7.4 Review and Outlook of Phosphoric Acid in 2009-2010
  7.4.1 Production of Phosphoric Acid in 2009
  7.4.2 Import and Export of Phosphoric Acid in 2009
  7.4.3 Forecast on Production of Phosphoric Acid in 2010
  7.4.4 Forecast on Import and Export of Phosphoric Acid in 2010

APPENDIX - TABLE

Chemical Fertilizer
Table 1, Chemical Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2006-2010
Table 2, Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2005-2009
Table 3, Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2005-2009
Table 4, Chemical Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009
Table 5, Chemical Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009
N-Fertilizer
Table 6, N-Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2006-2010
Table 7, Balance Sheet of Urea in China, 2006-2010
Table 8, N-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2005-2009
Table 9, N-Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009
Table 10, N-Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009
Table 11, China’s Urea Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009
Table 12, China’s Urea Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009
Table 13, Urea Imports by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 14, China’s Urea Exports by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 15, China’s Urea Imports by Provinces, 2005-2009
Table 16, China’s Urea Exports by Provinces, 2005-2009
P-Fertilizer
Table 17, P-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2006-2010
Table 18, P-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2005-2009
Table 19, P-Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009
Table 20, P-Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009
K-Fertilizer
Table 21, K-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2006-2010
Table 22, K-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2005-2009
Table 23, K-Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009
Table 24, K-Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009
Table 25, China’s MOP Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009
Table 26, China’s MOP Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009
Table 27, MOP Imports by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 28, MOP Imports by Provinces, 2005-2009
Table 29, China’s SOP Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009
Table 30, China’s SOP Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009
Table 31, SOP Imports by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 32, SOP Imports by Provinces, 2005-2009
Compound Fertilizer
Table 33, Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer in China, 2006-2010
Table 34, Balance Sheet of DAP in China, 2006-2010
Table 35, Balance Sheet of NPK in China, 2004-2009
Table 36, Compound Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009
Table 37, Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009
Table 38, China’s NPK Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009
Table 39, China’s NPK Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009
Table 40, NPK Imports by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 41, China’s NPK Exports by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 42, NPK Imports by Provinces, 2005-2009
Table 43, China’s DAP Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009
Table 44, China’s DAP Exports by Country Destination, 2005-2009
Table 45, DAP Imports by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 46, China’s DAP Exports by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 47, DAP Imports by Province, 2005-2009
Chemical Fertilizer Related Products
Table 48, China’s Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2005-2009
Table 51, China’s Production by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2005-2009
Table 52, China’s Sulfur Import by Country Original, 2005-2009
Table 53, China’s Sulfur Import by Customs, 2005-2009
Table 54, China’s Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2005-2009
Table 55, China Phosphorite Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009
Table 56, China Phosphorite Exports by Customs, 2005-2009

APPENDIX ⅡCHRONICLE OF EVENTS OF FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2009

Policy
Investment & Construction
Investment & Construction in Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry
Investment in potash Fertilizer
Investment in Phosphate and Compound Fertilizers
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