Vietnam Electricity Comprehensive Report Q4/2019
VIETNAM ELECTRICITY MARKET
The electricity market in Vietnam is still monopolistic when Vietnam Electricity (EVN) is the monopoly unit in the segments of electricity regulation, wholesale, transmission and distribution / retail. Power generation is the only segment that has the presence of entities outside EVN due to the fact that it requires huge investment capital. Over the past 10 years, Vietnam's power industry has been constantly adding supplies to keep up with the strong growth of demand. In the first 9 months of 2019, the total palace supply is estimated to increase x.xx% over the same period in 2018.
In the third quarter of 2019, the estimated electricity output accounted for x.xx% in the proportion of the total supply, an increase of xx.x% compared to the same period in 2018. The demand for electricity in Vietnam is huge, including in short, medium and long term. According to EVN's calculations, to meet the needs of economic development with a growth rate of xx% - x% and achieve the goal by 2020, Vietnam will basically become an industrialized country within 20 years. Electricity demand will have to increase from xx% - xx% per year.
The North-South 500kV ultra-high voltage grid system must constantly transmit high power from the North and the Central to the South, causing power losses. In Q4 / 2019, the electricity loss of the EVN Group was x.xx%, performing better x.xx% than the plan in 2019 (x.x%).
Electricity price in Vietnam is quite low compared to other countries in Asia - Pacific. However, compared to GDP per capita, electricity price in Vietnam is at high level. This is considered one of the reasons why the Government has to cross-subsidize. On March 20, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Trade officially adjusted electricity price increase at x.xx%, equivalent to VND x, xxx.xx.
The electricity market in Vietnam is still monopolistic when Vietnam Electricity (EVN) is the monopoly unit in the segments of electricity regulation, wholesale, transmission and distribution / retail. Power generation is the only segment that has the presence of entities outside EVN due to the fact that it requires huge investment capital. Over the past 10 years, Vietnam's power industry has been constantly adding supplies to keep up with the strong growth of demand. In the first 9 months of 2019, the total palace supply is estimated to increase x.xx% over the same period in 2018.
In the third quarter of 2019, the estimated electricity output accounted for x.xx% in the proportion of the total supply, an increase of xx.x% compared to the same period in 2018. The demand for electricity in Vietnam is huge, including in short, medium and long term. According to EVN's calculations, to meet the needs of economic development with a growth rate of xx% - x% and achieve the goal by 2020, Vietnam will basically become an industrialized country within 20 years. Electricity demand will have to increase from xx% - xx% per year.
The North-South 500kV ultra-high voltage grid system must constantly transmit high power from the North and the Central to the South, causing power losses. In Q4 / 2019, the electricity loss of the EVN Group was x.xx%, performing better x.xx% than the plan in 2019 (x.x%).
Electricity price in Vietnam is quite low compared to other countries in Asia - Pacific. However, compared to GDP per capita, electricity price in Vietnam is at high level. This is considered one of the reasons why the Government has to cross-subsidize. On March 20, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Trade officially adjusted electricity price increase at x.xx%, equivalent to VND x, xxx.xx.
Abbreviations
Summary
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1 Macroeconomic situation
1.2 Legal barrier
1.3 Economic agreements
2. CURRENT SITUATION OF WORLD ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY
2.1 Supply and demand of electricity
2.2 Trend of electricity development in the world
2.3 Price movements
2.4 Current status of electricity use in some Southeast Asian countries
3. SITUATION OF VIETNAM'S ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY
3.1 History of Vietnam's electricity industry
3.2 Electricity value chain
3.3 Fuel inlet
3.4 Electricity generation
3.5 Transmission and distribution of electricity
3.6 Electricity consumption
3.7 Electricity prices
3.8 Electricity industry structure
4. ISSUES ON ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
4.1 Existence
4.2 Challenges
4.3 Risks
5. PLANNING AND FORECASTING
5.1 Planning
5.2 Forecast
6. BUSINESS ANALYSIS
6.1 Typical companies in the industry
6.2 Target group of business results
6.3 Financial indicators group
6.4 Group of payment criteria
7. APPENDIX
Summary
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1 Macroeconomic situation
1.2 Legal barrier
1.3 Economic agreements
2. CURRENT SITUATION OF WORLD ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY
2.1 Supply and demand of electricity
2.2 Trend of electricity development in the world
2.3 Price movements
2.4 Current status of electricity use in some Southeast Asian countries
3. SITUATION OF VIETNAM'S ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY
3.1 History of Vietnam's electricity industry
3.2 Electricity value chain
3.3 Fuel inlet
3.4 Electricity generation
3.5 Transmission and distribution of electricity
3.6 Electricity consumption
3.7 Electricity prices
3.8 Electricity industry structure
4. ISSUES ON ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
4.1 Existence
4.2 Challenges
4.3 Risks
5. PLANNING AND FORECASTING
5.1 Planning
5.2 Forecast
6. BUSINESS ANALYSIS
6.1 Typical companies in the industry
6.2 Target group of business results
6.3 Financial indicators group
6.4 Group of payment criteria
7. APPENDIX
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Power generation in Southeast Asia by energy source, 2000 - 2040f
Table 2: Demand for primary energy in Southeast Asia, 2000-2040f
Table 3: Energy use situation in Vietnam, 2001 - 2018
Table 4: Energy efficiency in economic development, 2000-2018
Table 5: Coal price increase for electricity production, July 2012 - April 2019
Table 6: Vietnam hydroelectricity potential
Table 7: Solar radiation data in Vietnam
Table 8: Vietnam's solar energy development roadmap to 2030, vision 2050
Table 9: Some large solar power projects in Ninh Thuan will go into operation in 2019
Table 10: Potential under wind power planning in 5 provinces in Mekong Delta (Mekong Delta), 2020-2030
Table 11: List of some wind power projects in Vietnam
Table 12: Geothermal potential of regions
Table 13: Theoretical and technical potential of Tidal power
Table 14: List of power source projects in operation in 2019
Table 15: Comparison of advantages and disadvantages of hydropower and thermal power
Table 16: Technologies for producing electricity from Coal (thermal power)
Table 17: Length of transmission grid and total distribution capacity, 2012 - 2018
Table 18: Power loss rates of some countries, 2018
Table 19: Results of reducing power loss in 2017 - 2018
Table 20: Advantages and disadvantages of capacitor types
Table 21: Commercial electricity by distribution companies (million kWh), 2017 - 2018
Table 22: Indicators of electricity supply reliability, 2018 - 2019
Table 23: Electricity access index of Vietnam, 2015 - 2019
Table 24: Electricity access index of countries participating in the CPTPP, 2018 *
Table 25: Avoided cost tariff applied to small and medium hydropower plants in 2019
Table 26: Average electricity wholesale price bracket of EVN for Electricity Corporations in 2018
Table 27: Calculating the price of electricity in 6 grades
Table 28: Electricity generation frame for coal-fired power plants
Table 29: Comparison of electricity structure before and after 2008
Table 1: Power generation in Southeast Asia by energy source, 2000 - 2040f
Table 2: Demand for primary energy in Southeast Asia, 2000-2040f
Table 3: Energy use situation in Vietnam, 2001 - 2018
Table 4: Energy efficiency in economic development, 2000-2018
Table 5: Coal price increase for electricity production, July 2012 - April 2019
Table 6: Vietnam hydroelectricity potential
Table 7: Solar radiation data in Vietnam
Table 8: Vietnam's solar energy development roadmap to 2030, vision 2050
Table 9: Some large solar power projects in Ninh Thuan will go into operation in 2019
Table 10: Potential under wind power planning in 5 provinces in Mekong Delta (Mekong Delta), 2020-2030
Table 11: List of some wind power projects in Vietnam
Table 12: Geothermal potential of regions
Table 13: Theoretical and technical potential of Tidal power
Table 14: List of power source projects in operation in 2019
Table 15: Comparison of advantages and disadvantages of hydropower and thermal power
Table 16: Technologies for producing electricity from Coal (thermal power)
Table 17: Length of transmission grid and total distribution capacity, 2012 - 2018
Table 18: Power loss rates of some countries, 2018
Table 19: Results of reducing power loss in 2017 - 2018
Table 20: Advantages and disadvantages of capacitor types
Table 21: Commercial electricity by distribution companies (million kWh), 2017 - 2018
Table 22: Indicators of electricity supply reliability, 2018 - 2019
Table 23: Electricity access index of Vietnam, 2015 - 2019
Table 24: Electricity access index of countries participating in the CPTPP, 2018 *
Table 25: Avoided cost tariff applied to small and medium hydropower plants in 2019
Table 26: Average electricity wholesale price bracket of EVN for Electricity Corporations in 2018
Table 27: Calculating the price of electricity in 6 grades
Table 28: Electricity generation frame for coal-fired power plants
Table 29: Comparison of electricity structure before and after 2008
LIST OF FIGURES
Chart 1: Monthly CPI fluctuation, 1/2015 –9/2019
Figure 2: GDP growth rate by quarter, 2016 - 2019
Chart 3: VND / USD exchange rate, 1 / 2013-9 / 2019
Figure 4: FDI attraction by field, 9M / 2019
Figure 5: Contribution of electricity production and distribution in GDP, 2012 - 9M / 2019
Figure 6: World electricity production, 2010-2018
Figure 7: Structure of world electricity production by region, 2018
Figure 8: Structure of world power supply by fuel source, 2017 - 2018
Figure 9: Top largest electricity producing countries in the world, 2017 - 2018
Figure 10: Contribution structure of world electricity production, 2018
Figure 11: Electricity production in some countries in the world, 2013 - 2018
Figure 12: World electricity consumption, 2009 - 2018
Figure 13: Top 10 largest electricity consuming countries, 2018
Figure 14: Top largest electricity exporting countries, 2018
Figure 15: World electricity export, 2010-2018
Figure 16: Prospects of world power consumption by region, 1980 - 2030f
Figure 17: Electricity price in some countries around the world, 2018
Figure 18: Average electricity price in the world, 2013 - 2040f
Figure 19: Energy demand by Southeast Asian countries, 1990 - 2035f
Figure 20: ASEAN power consumption by sectors, 2010 - 2035f:
Figure 21: Market segment of coal consumption, 2017
Figure 22: Market segment of natural gas consumption
Figure 23: Gas price for electricity, 1 / 2014-4 / 2019
Chart 24: Potential and characteristics of wind power by region and wind speed
Graph 25: Total palace, 2010 - 9M / 2019
Figure 26: Share of electricity generation by supplier, 2017
Figure 27: Electricity production structure by raw material source, 2014 - 3M / 2018
Figure 28: Import of electricity from China, 2010 - 9M / 2019
Figure 29: Electricity loss, 2010 - 9M / 2019
Figure 30: Maximum load and available capacity of the electricity system *, 1/2018 - 7/2019
Chart 31: Hourly peak load between the two main seasons of the year, 2018
Figure 32: Commercial electricity, 2012-9T / 2019
Figure 33: Electricity intensity of regions in the world (kwh / USD)
Figure 34: Vietnam's per capita electricity consumption, 2000-2018e
Figure 35: Electricity consumption structure, 3M / 2019
Figure 36: Electricity elasticity coefficient / GDP, 2010 - 9M / 2019
Figure 37: Time of blackout, 2012 - 2018
Figure 38: Average electricity purchase price of EVN, 1/2017 - 7/2019
Chart 39: Average electricity price, 7/2008 - 9/2019
Figure 40: Input material price, January 2014 - April 2019
Chart 41: Current situation of VCGM, 2012 - 2018e
Figure 42: Structure of electricity production by primary energy source
Figure 43: LCOE of the investment technologies for 1 kWh, 2017-2025
Figure 44: Import and export value of electric wires and cables, 2013 - 9M / 2019
Figure 45: Import structure of electric wires and cables by country, 9M / 2019
Figure 46: Supply - demand of electricity, 2010 - 2030f
Figure 47: Growth of renewable electricity capacity, 2016 - 2030f
Figure 48: Net revenue, 2017 - 2018
Figure 49: Profit targets, 2017 - 2018
Chart 50: Self-financing rate, 2017 - 2018
Chart 51: Financial expenses, 2017 - 2018
Chart 52: Total assets, 2017 - 2018
Chart 53: Average payment period, 2018
Figure 54: Profitability group, 2018
Figure 55: Inventory days, 2018
Figure 56: Solvency, 2017 - 2018
Chart 1: Monthly CPI fluctuation, 1/2015 –9/2019
Figure 2: GDP growth rate by quarter, 2016 - 2019
Chart 3: VND / USD exchange rate, 1 / 2013-9 / 2019
Figure 4: FDI attraction by field, 9M / 2019
Figure 5: Contribution of electricity production and distribution in GDP, 2012 - 9M / 2019
Figure 6: World electricity production, 2010-2018
Figure 7: Structure of world electricity production by region, 2018
Figure 8: Structure of world power supply by fuel source, 2017 - 2018
Figure 9: Top largest electricity producing countries in the world, 2017 - 2018
Figure 10: Contribution structure of world electricity production, 2018
Figure 11: Electricity production in some countries in the world, 2013 - 2018
Figure 12: World electricity consumption, 2009 - 2018
Figure 13: Top 10 largest electricity consuming countries, 2018
Figure 14: Top largest electricity exporting countries, 2018
Figure 15: World electricity export, 2010-2018
Figure 16: Prospects of world power consumption by region, 1980 - 2030f
Figure 17: Electricity price in some countries around the world, 2018
Figure 18: Average electricity price in the world, 2013 - 2040f
Figure 19: Energy demand by Southeast Asian countries, 1990 - 2035f
Figure 20: ASEAN power consumption by sectors, 2010 - 2035f:
Figure 21: Market segment of coal consumption, 2017
Figure 22: Market segment of natural gas consumption
Figure 23: Gas price for electricity, 1 / 2014-4 / 2019
Chart 24: Potential and characteristics of wind power by region and wind speed
Graph 25: Total palace, 2010 - 9M / 2019
Figure 26: Share of electricity generation by supplier, 2017
Figure 27: Electricity production structure by raw material source, 2014 - 3M / 2018
Figure 28: Import of electricity from China, 2010 - 9M / 2019
Figure 29: Electricity loss, 2010 - 9M / 2019
Figure 30: Maximum load and available capacity of the electricity system *, 1/2018 - 7/2019
Chart 31: Hourly peak load between the two main seasons of the year, 2018
Figure 32: Commercial electricity, 2012-9T / 2019
Figure 33: Electricity intensity of regions in the world (kwh / USD)
Figure 34: Vietnam's per capita electricity consumption, 2000-2018e
Figure 35: Electricity consumption structure, 3M / 2019
Figure 36: Electricity elasticity coefficient / GDP, 2010 - 9M / 2019
Figure 37: Time of blackout, 2012 - 2018
Figure 38: Average electricity purchase price of EVN, 1/2017 - 7/2019
Chart 39: Average electricity price, 7/2008 - 9/2019
Figure 40: Input material price, January 2014 - April 2019
Chart 41: Current situation of VCGM, 2012 - 2018e
Figure 42: Structure of electricity production by primary energy source
Figure 43: LCOE of the investment technologies for 1 kWh, 2017-2025
Figure 44: Import and export value of electric wires and cables, 2013 - 9M / 2019
Figure 45: Import structure of electric wires and cables by country, 9M / 2019
Figure 46: Supply - demand of electricity, 2010 - 2030f
Figure 47: Growth of renewable electricity capacity, 2016 - 2030f
Figure 48: Net revenue, 2017 - 2018
Figure 49: Profit targets, 2017 - 2018
Chart 50: Self-financing rate, 2017 - 2018
Chart 51: Financial expenses, 2017 - 2018
Chart 52: Total assets, 2017 - 2018
Chart 53: Average payment period, 2018
Figure 54: Profitability group, 2018
Figure 55: Inventory days, 2018
Figure 56: Solvency, 2017 - 2018
