Vietnam Electricity Comprehensive Report Q2/2019
VIETNAM ELECTRICITY MARKET
Vietnam electricity market is still exclusive when Vietnam Electricity (EVN) is the unit holding monopoly on regulating, buying electricity, transmitting and distributing electricity. Generating power is the only segment that other units apart from EVN take part in due to the high-investment characteristics. Over the last 10 years, Vietnam electricity industry added new supply sources continuously in order to keep pace with the dramatic demand growth rate. Accumulated in the first 3 months of 2019, the total supply was estimated to increase 9.58% over the same period in 2018.
In Q1/2019, the volume of imported electricity accounted for 1.46% of the total electricity supply, increasing by 12,9% compared to the same period of 2018. The demand for electricity in Vietnam is very enormous in short term, mid-term and long term. According to EVN's calculation, in order to meet the economic development demand with the growth rate from 7.5% to 8% and reach the goal to 2020 that Vietnam basically becomes an industrial country, over the next 20 years, the electricity demand will increase by 15% - 17%/year.
The 500kV North - South ultrahigh-voltage grid system must continuously transmit high capacity from the North and the Central to the South, causing power loss. In Q1/2019, EVN's powder loss was 6.57%, 0.13 % better than 2019's plan (6,7%).
Electricity price in Vietnam is quite low compared to other countries in the Asia - Pacific region. However, compared to per capita GDP, the electricity price in Vietnam is still high. This is considered as one of the reasons that makes the Government issue cross subsidies. On 20/03/2019, The Ministry of Industry and Trade officially adjusted the electricity price up to 8.63%, which was equivalent to 1,864.44 VND.
Vietnam electricity market is still exclusive when Vietnam Electricity (EVN) is the unit holding monopoly on regulating, buying electricity, transmitting and distributing electricity. Generating power is the only segment that other units apart from EVN take part in due to the high-investment characteristics. Over the last 10 years, Vietnam electricity industry added new supply sources continuously in order to keep pace with the dramatic demand growth rate. Accumulated in the first 3 months of 2019, the total supply was estimated to increase 9.58% over the same period in 2018.
In Q1/2019, the volume of imported electricity accounted for 1.46% of the total electricity supply, increasing by 12,9% compared to the same period of 2018. The demand for electricity in Vietnam is very enormous in short term, mid-term and long term. According to EVN's calculation, in order to meet the economic development demand with the growth rate from 7.5% to 8% and reach the goal to 2020 that Vietnam basically becomes an industrial country, over the next 20 years, the electricity demand will increase by 15% - 17%/year.
The 500kV North - South ultrahigh-voltage grid system must continuously transmit high capacity from the North and the Central to the South, causing power loss. In Q1/2019, EVN's powder loss was 6.57%, 0.13 % better than 2019's plan (6,7%).
Electricity price in Vietnam is quite low compared to other countries in the Asia - Pacific region. However, compared to per capita GDP, the electricity price in Vietnam is still high. This is considered as one of the reasons that makes the Government issue cross subsidies. On 20/03/2019, The Ministry of Industry and Trade officially adjusted the electricity price up to 8.63%, which was equivalent to 1,864.44 VND.
ABBREVIATIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1 Macroeconomic situation
1.2 Legal framework
1.3 Free Trade Agreements
2. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
2.1 Situation of global electricity industry
2.1.1 Demand and supply for electricity
2.1.2 Development trend of global electricity industry
2.1.3 Price movement
2.1.4 Situation of electricity industry in some Southeast Asia countries
2.2 Situation of Vietnam electricity industry
2.2.1 History of Vietnam electricity industry
2.2.2 Value chain of the industry
2.2.3 Input fuel
2.2.4 Electricity generation
2.2.5 Transmission and distribution
2.2.6 Electricity consumption
2.2.7 Electricity price
2.2.8 Structure of electricity industry
2.3 Issues in energy industries development
2.3.1 Existing
2.3.2 Challenges
2.3.3 Risks
2.3.4 The trend of foreign investment
2.4 Planning and forecasting
2.4.1 Planning
2.4.2 Forecasting
3. BUSINESS ANALYSIS
3.1 Typical companies of electricity industry
3.2 Business performance indicators
3.3 Financial indicators
3.4 Payment indicators
4. APPEND
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1 Macroeconomic situation
1.2 Legal framework
1.3 Free Trade Agreements
2. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
2.1 Situation of global electricity industry
2.1.1 Demand and supply for electricity
2.1.2 Development trend of global electricity industry
2.1.3 Price movement
2.1.4 Situation of electricity industry in some Southeast Asia countries
2.2 Situation of Vietnam electricity industry
2.2.1 History of Vietnam electricity industry
2.2.2 Value chain of the industry
2.2.3 Input fuel
2.2.4 Electricity generation
2.2.5 Transmission and distribution
2.2.6 Electricity consumption
2.2.7 Electricity price
2.2.8 Structure of electricity industry
2.3 Issues in energy industries development
2.3.1 Existing
2.3.2 Challenges
2.3.3 Risks
2.3.4 The trend of foreign investment
2.4 Planning and forecasting
2.4.1 Planning
2.4.2 Forecasting
3. BUSINESS ANALYSIS
3.1 Typical companies of electricity industry
3.2 Business performance indicators
3.3 Financial indicators
3.4 Payment indicators
4. APPEND
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Electricity generation in Southeast Asia by energy sources, 2000 – 2040f
Table 2: Energy consumption situation in Vietnam, 2001 - 2018
Table 3: Increase in coal price for power generation, 7/2012 – 1/2019
Table 4: Data on solar radiation in Vietnam
Table 5: Solar power projects in Ninh Thuan in 2019
Table 6: Some wind electricity projects in Mekong river delta
Table 7: Geothermal potential of the regions
Table 8: Power projects operation in 2019
Table 9: Advantages and disadvantages of hydroelectricity and thermal electricity comparison
Table 10: Electricity generating technology from coal (Thermal power)
Table 11: Length of transmission grid and total capacity of distribution, 2012 - 2017
Table 12: Results of reduction of power losses 2017 - 2018
Table 13: Advantages and disadvantages of capacitor types
Table 14: Commercial electricity according to the distribution companies (Million kWh), 2016 – 2018
Table 15: Electricity supply reliability criteria, 2017-2018
Table 16: Vietnam’s getting electricity indicator, 2015 - 2019
Table 17: Getting electricity indicator of countries participating in CPTPP, 2018*
Table 18: Avoided cost tariff applied to small and medium-sized hydroelectric plants in 2018
Table 19: Average electricity wholesale price of EVN for other electricity corporations in 2018
Table 20: Electricity price in 6 degree
Table 1: Electricity generation in Southeast Asia by energy sources, 2000 – 2040f
Table 2: Energy consumption situation in Vietnam, 2001 - 2018
Table 3: Increase in coal price for power generation, 7/2012 – 1/2019
Table 4: Data on solar radiation in Vietnam
Table 5: Solar power projects in Ninh Thuan in 2019
Table 6: Some wind electricity projects in Mekong river delta
Table 7: Geothermal potential of the regions
Table 8: Power projects operation in 2019
Table 9: Advantages and disadvantages of hydroelectricity and thermal electricity comparison
Table 10: Electricity generating technology from coal (Thermal power)
Table 11: Length of transmission grid and total capacity of distribution, 2012 - 2017
Table 12: Results of reduction of power losses 2017 - 2018
Table 13: Advantages and disadvantages of capacitor types
Table 14: Commercial electricity according to the distribution companies (Million kWh), 2016 – 2018
Table 15: Electricity supply reliability criteria, 2017-2018
Table 16: Vietnam’s getting electricity indicator, 2015 - 2019
Table 17: Getting electricity indicator of countries participating in CPTPP, 2018*
Table 18: Avoided cost tariff applied to small and medium-sized hydroelectric plants in 2018
Table 19: Average electricity wholesale price of EVN for other electricity corporations in 2018
Table 20: Electricity price in 6 degree
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Monthly CPI fluctuations, 1/2015 - 3/2019
Figure 2: GDP growth rate by quarter, 2016-2019
Figure 3: VND/USD exchange rates, 1/2013-3/2019
Figure 4: FDI attraction by industry, Q1/2019
Figure 5: Contribution to electricity production and distribution in GDP, 2012 – 3T/2019
Figure 6: World electricity production volume 2009-2017
Figure 7: Structure of world electricity volume, 2017e
Figure 8: Structure of electricity supply according to recourse, 2016 - 2017
Figure 9: World's top largest electricity producing countries, 2016 - 2017
Figure 10: Electricity production volume in some countries, 2006 - 2017
Figure 11: Global electricity consumption, 2008 - 2017
Figure 12: Top 10 most electricity consuming countries, 2017
Figure 13: Top largest electricity exporters, 2017
Figure 14: World electricity exports, 2010-2017e
Figure 15: World electricity consumption prospects by region, 1980 – 2030f
Figure 16: Electricity price in some countries, 2018
Figure 17: Average price of electricity in the world, 2011 – 2040f
Figure 18: Demand for energy of some countries in Southeast Asia, 1990 – 2035f
Figure 19: Proportion of electricity consumption in ASEAN by sectors, 2010 – 2035f
Figure 20: Domestic energy exploitation from 2010 - 2015
Figure 21: Coal reserves by region, 2016f
Figure 22: Market segment of coal consumption, 2017
Figure 23: Forecast for supply and demand coal, 2015 - 2030
Figure 24: Market segment of natural gas consumption
Figure 25: Rate of selling price of gas for electricity sector by market price, 2014 - 2015
Figure 26: Planning potential of wind electricity in 5 provinces of Mekong river delta, 2020 - 2030
Figure 27: Potential and characteristics of wind electricity in 3 regions and by wind speed
Figure 28: Theoretical potential and technical potential of the tidal electric power
Figure 29: Total supply of electricity, 2010 – 3T/2019
Figure 30: Proportion of electricity generation by supplier, 2017
Figure 31: Structure of electricity production by sources of materials, 2012 – 2018
Figure 32: Distribution of main power plants
Figure 33: Electricity import from China, 2010 – 3T/2019
Figure 34: Power loss, 2010 – 3T/2019
Figure 35: Rate of power losses of some countries, 2011-2014
Figure 36: Maximum load and electricity system availability*, 1/2017 - 1/2019
Figure 37: Peak load by time between two main seasons, 2018
Figure 38: Electricity intensity by region in the world (kwh/USD)
Figure 39: Electricity consumption per capita of Vietnam, 2000-2018e
Figure 40: Electricity consumption structure, 3M/2019
Figure 41: Elestic electricity factor/GDP, 2010 - 3T/2019
Figure 42: Electricity outage, 2012 – 2018
Figure 43: Average electricity purchase price of EVN, 1/2017 - 1/2019
Figure 44: Average electricity price, 7/2007 –3/2019
Figure 45: Price of input material, 1/2014 – 3/2019
Figure 46: VGCM situation, 2012 - 2018e
Figure 47: Structure of electricity production by primary energy source
Figure 48: Average per capita consumption of coal and CO₂
Figure 49: Leveled Cost of Electricity of techs per 1kWh, 2017-2050
Figure 50: Import of electrical wires and cables, 2011 - 3T/2019
Figure 51: Structure of import value of electrical wires and cables by nations, 3T/2019
Figure 52: Demand – supply of electricity, 2010 – 2030f
Figure 53: Growth of renewable electricity capacity, 2016 - 2030f
Figure 54: Net revenue, 2017 - 2018
Figure 55: Profit indicator, 2017 - 2018
Figure 56: Self-financing rate, 2016 - 2017
Figure 57: Financial cost, 2017 - 2018
Figure 58: Total asset, 2017 - 2018
Figure 59: Days of sales outstanding, 2018
Figure 60: Profit indicators, 2017
Figure 61: Day’s sales in inventory, 2018
Figure 62: 2017 - 2018
Figure 1: Monthly CPI fluctuations, 1/2015 - 3/2019
Figure 2: GDP growth rate by quarter, 2016-2019
Figure 3: VND/USD exchange rates, 1/2013-3/2019
Figure 4: FDI attraction by industry, Q1/2019
Figure 5: Contribution to electricity production and distribution in GDP, 2012 – 3T/2019
Figure 6: World electricity production volume 2009-2017
Figure 7: Structure of world electricity volume, 2017e
Figure 8: Structure of electricity supply according to recourse, 2016 - 2017
Figure 9: World's top largest electricity producing countries, 2016 - 2017
Figure 10: Electricity production volume in some countries, 2006 - 2017
Figure 11: Global electricity consumption, 2008 - 2017
Figure 12: Top 10 most electricity consuming countries, 2017
Figure 13: Top largest electricity exporters, 2017
Figure 14: World electricity exports, 2010-2017e
Figure 15: World electricity consumption prospects by region, 1980 – 2030f
Figure 16: Electricity price in some countries, 2018
Figure 17: Average price of electricity in the world, 2011 – 2040f
Figure 18: Demand for energy of some countries in Southeast Asia, 1990 – 2035f
Figure 19: Proportion of electricity consumption in ASEAN by sectors, 2010 – 2035f
Figure 20: Domestic energy exploitation from 2010 - 2015
Figure 21: Coal reserves by region, 2016f
Figure 22: Market segment of coal consumption, 2017
Figure 23: Forecast for supply and demand coal, 2015 - 2030
Figure 24: Market segment of natural gas consumption
Figure 25: Rate of selling price of gas for electricity sector by market price, 2014 - 2015
Figure 26: Planning potential of wind electricity in 5 provinces of Mekong river delta, 2020 - 2030
Figure 27: Potential and characteristics of wind electricity in 3 regions and by wind speed
Figure 28: Theoretical potential and technical potential of the tidal electric power
Figure 29: Total supply of electricity, 2010 – 3T/2019
Figure 30: Proportion of electricity generation by supplier, 2017
Figure 31: Structure of electricity production by sources of materials, 2012 – 2018
Figure 32: Distribution of main power plants
Figure 33: Electricity import from China, 2010 – 3T/2019
Figure 34: Power loss, 2010 – 3T/2019
Figure 35: Rate of power losses of some countries, 2011-2014
Figure 36: Maximum load and electricity system availability*, 1/2017 - 1/2019
Figure 37: Peak load by time between two main seasons, 2018
Figure 38: Electricity intensity by region in the world (kwh/USD)
Figure 39: Electricity consumption per capita of Vietnam, 2000-2018e
Figure 40: Electricity consumption structure, 3M/2019
Figure 41: Elestic electricity factor/GDP, 2010 - 3T/2019
Figure 42: Electricity outage, 2012 – 2018
Figure 43: Average electricity purchase price of EVN, 1/2017 - 1/2019
Figure 44: Average electricity price, 7/2007 –3/2019
Figure 45: Price of input material, 1/2014 – 3/2019
Figure 46: VGCM situation, 2012 - 2018e
Figure 47: Structure of electricity production by primary energy source
Figure 48: Average per capita consumption of coal and CO₂
Figure 49: Leveled Cost of Electricity of techs per 1kWh, 2017-2050
Figure 50: Import of electrical wires and cables, 2011 - 3T/2019
Figure 51: Structure of import value of electrical wires and cables by nations, 3T/2019
Figure 52: Demand – supply of electricity, 2010 – 2030f
Figure 53: Growth of renewable electricity capacity, 2016 - 2030f
Figure 54: Net revenue, 2017 - 2018
Figure 55: Profit indicator, 2017 - 2018
Figure 56: Self-financing rate, 2016 - 2017
Figure 57: Financial cost, 2017 - 2018
Figure 58: Total asset, 2017 - 2018
Figure 59: Days of sales outstanding, 2018
Figure 60: Profit indicators, 2017
Figure 61: Day’s sales in inventory, 2018
Figure 62: 2017 - 2018
