Babycare Supplies in the U.S.: Diapers, Bottles, Wipes and Feeding Accessories, 5th Edition
Babycare supplies marketers must come up with new products and strategies on a regular basis -- to raise brands above the commodity herd. The fact that the pool of babies tends to hover near 4.0 million, year in, year out, further pressures competition. Yet this market is worth the scramble for share: Valued at $7.0 billion at retail, the market’s six categories (disposable diapers, wipes, bodycare preparations, feeding accessories, play & discovery toys, and pacifiers/teethers) hold rich potential for players with innovative wares and competitive savvy. This latest edition of a popular Packaged Facts report contains all the information that executives need to form aggressive gameplans for either entering the fray or enhancing their existing positions. Market drivers such as green or natural/organic products, and higher birth rates among ethnic minorities, are examined against the background of the troubled U.S. economy. Sales figures -- both historical and forecasted -- are covered, too, as are IRI brand share data, and Experian Simmons demographic data. Execs can also compare their battle profiles with those of California Baby, Hain-Celestial, Kimberly-Clark, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Seventh Generation, and others; each of these companies’ stances is discussed in detail. Throughout the report, Packaged Facts’ unique in-depth analysis is featured.
CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Highlights
Market Definition: Six Product Categories
Birth Rates Explained
Artificial Colors Are Only Ingredients Tested by FDA
Truth and Safety
Finally, ANSI Standards for Organic Personal Care Products
Product and Tactical Hot Spots
Babycare Supplies Plod to $7.1 Billion in 2005-2009
Market Surprisingly Out of Sync with Birth and Inflation Rates
Table 1-1: U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, 2005-2009 (In Millions)
Disposable Diapers Still Dominant Babycare Product
Table 1-2: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2005-2009
Babycare Supplies Market to Reach $8.5 Billion in 2015
Table 1-3: Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2009-2015 (In Millions)
Ethnic Minorities Driving U.S. Birth Rates
A Cycle of Commoditization and Decommoditization
Yoga Moms - Do They Still Exist?
Yoga Moms 2 and 3
Busy Mothers Buying CPG via Direct Sales Media
Of Hundreds of Babycare Supplies Marketers, Just 107 Significant in Mass
Important Mergers, Acquisitions, Spin-Offs, Divestments
2010
2008
2007
2006
Core Babycare Supplies Base is 7.3 Million Households with Kids
Over 3.2 Million Households with Expectant Mothers
“Expectant” Households: Youth, Minorities, Plus Kids Already There...
“We Had a Baby!”/“We’re Gonna Have a Baby!”
Grandma and Grandpa, the Gift-Givers
CHAPTER 2: THE PRODUCTS
Highlights
Introduction
Market Definition
Diapers to Pacifiers: Six Product Categories
Some Overlap with Toddlers’ and Adults’ Products
Terms Defined
Birth Rate
Carbon Footprint
Cosmeceutical
Direct
Ethnic
Fair Trade
Green
HBC
Infants/Toddlers/Preschoolers
“Market” versus “Category” versus “Segment”
Mass Retail Channel(s)
“Natural” versus “Organic”
Prestige and Pop Prestige
SKU
Specialty
Sustainable (also, Renewable)
Methodology
The Products
Six Main Babycare Product Categories
Category 1: Disposable Diapers/Training Pants
Category 2: Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes
Category 3: Baby Bodycare Products
Soap/Bath Products
Creams/Ointments
Powder
Lotions
Petroleum Jelly (Petrolatum)
Shampoo
Oils
Category 4: Feeding Accessories
Category 5: Play and Discovery (Infant) Toys
Category 6: Pacifiers/Teethers (a.k.a., Soothing Accessories)
Babycare Supplies That Are Used by Adults
Related Product Markets
Eight Controversial Ingredients
Eight Among Thousands - But Few Ingredients Are Tested...
Bisphenol-A (BPA)
Parabens
Phthalates
Polypropylene (Polypropene)
Propylene Glycol
Sodium Polyacrylate (Super-Absorbent Polymer, or SAP)
Sodium Lauryl Sulfate and Sodium Laureth Sulfate (SLFs)
Talc
Regulation
Babycare Supplies Are Minimally Regulated
The Subject Was Diapers
Artificial Colors Are Only Ingredients Tested by FDA
Truth and Safety
Cosmetics versus Drugs, and the FTC
The Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act of 2008 (CPSIA)
The USDA and FTC Play Limited Roles
Still in the Works: The Safe Baby Products Act
...And the Colorado Safe Personal Care Products Act
Finally, ANSI Standards for Organic Personal Care Products
CHAPTER 3: INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Highlights
The Key Babycare Supplies Tactic: “Add Value, Stupid!”
Make Mine Natural! - No, Green! - No, Organic! - No, Natural!
From 2010 On, Expect Lots of Humorous Babycare Supplies Ads
Product and Tactical Hot Spots
CHAPTER 4: THE MARKET
Highlights
Market Size and Growth
Babycare Supplies Plod to $7.1 Billion in 2005-2009
Market Surprisingly Out of Sync with Birth and Inflation Rates
Table 4-1: U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2005-2009 (In Millions)
Disposable Diapers Struggle to Attain $4.1 Billion
Training Pants Fall Down
Disposable Diaper Unit-Consumption Leaps Up to 40.2 Billion
Wipes/Towelettes in Decent Progress to $1.2 Billion
Wipes Still Overpower Towelettes
Baby Bodycare Retains Promise, Reaches $712.0 Million
In Mass, Baby Bodycare Segments Led by Soap and Ointments
Table 4-2: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Bodycare Products in Mass Retail Channels (Supermarkets, Chain Drugstores, and Mass Merchandise Outlets), by Product Segment, 2001-2009 (Dollars in Thousands)
Feeding Accessories Climb to $593.0 Million
Play & Discovery Toys Soar, Then Plunge Back to $310.0 Million
Pacifiers/Teethers Slip to $108.0 Million
Market Composition
Disposable Diapers Still Dominant Babycare Product
Table 4-3: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2005-2009 (In Millions)
...And Mass Retail Channel Still Rules
Table 4-4: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Retail Channel, 2007-2009
In Five of Six Categories, Price Indices for Mass Rise
Table 4-5: U.S. Retail Dollar Sales, Unit Volume, and Average Price of Babycare Supplies, in Mass Channels (Supermarkets, Chain Drugstores, Mass Merchandisers), Price-Indexed and by Category, 2005-2009 (In Millions)
Retail Value of Natural/Organic Babycare Supplies Could Be $350.0 Million
Regionality of Sales
Northeast: Powder and Toys Stand Out
Central: Biggest Numbers, But Skews Only to Disposable Diapers, Toys
Southeast: Adults Skew Use to Baby Oil and Powder
Southwest: Wipes, Baby Shampoo Particularly Favored
Pacific: Skews to Dipes, Wipes, Shampoo, and Toys
Table 4-6: Use of Babycare Supplies, by Category and Marketing Region, 2009 (Households, in Thousands)
Factors in Future Growth
An Evergreen, But Ever-Limited Pool of Babies
Population Growth Is a Positive Factor
Babies Are an Evergreen Sector - Another Positive...
Number of U.S. Live Births Changes Very Little
Marketing Strategies Create Another Disconnect
Four Kinds of Birth Rates, Four Perspectives on Population Growth
Absolute Numbers of Live Births Peaked in 2008
Crude Birth Rate
General Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rate
Table 4-7: U.S. Live Births, by Number, and by Crude, General Fertility, and Total Fertility Birth Rates, 1940-2009
Ethnic Minorities Driving U.S. Birth Rates
A Cycle of Commoditization and Decommoditization
New Channel Choices, Promo Media Enhance Babycare Positioning
Consumers’ Mild Commitment to Trading Down
Recession’s Legacy: Lost Babycare Brands Can’t Inspire Shoppers
Destocking Opens Door to Private and Controlled Labels
...So Cut Wholesale Prices!
...Sorry, But Materials Costs Are Over the Moon!
Natural/Organic/Green Trends a Big Positive
Prestige Will Regain “Oomph”
Yoga Moms - Do They Still Exist?
Yoga Moms 2 and 3
Busy Mothers Buying CPG via Direct Sales Media
Projected Sales
Babycare Supplies Market to Reach $8.5 Billion in 2015
Disposable Diapers to Sleepcrawl to $4.7 Billion
Wipes/Towelettes to Skip Lightly to $1.5 Billion
Baby Bodycare to Rise to $986.0 Million
Feeding Accessories in O.K. Progress to $750.0 Million
Play & Discovery Toys to Recover Lost Ground, Ascend to $408.0 Million
Pacifiers/Teethers Will Slog on Up to $143.0 Million
Table 4-8: Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2009-2015 (In Millions)
CHAPTER 5: THE MARKETERS
Highlights
The Marketers
Of Hundreds of Babycare Supplies Marketers, Just 107 Significant in Mass
Competition in Mass Getting Tougher
Table 5-1: Number of Significant Mass Marketers of Babycare Supplies, by Category/Segment, 2004-2009
Table of Marketers and Brands
Table 5-2: Leading or Noteworthy Marketers of Babycare Supplies, and Their Representative Brands, 2010
Marketer and Brand Share: Disposable Diapers/Training Pants
P & G and K-C Have Choke-Hold on Disposable Diaper Segment
Table 5-3: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Disposable Diapers (Not Including Training Pants) Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
K-C Rules Training Pants
Table 5-4: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Disposable Training Pants Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes
K-C, P& G Lead in Baby Wipes; Private Label Steals Share
Table 5-5: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Wipes Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
In Towelettes, K-C Outruns Energizer Bunny
Table 5-6: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Moist Towelettes Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Baby Bodycare Products
J & J Is King in Baby Bodycare
Four of Every Five Baby Lotion Bucks Spent on J & J Brands
Table 5-7: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Lotions Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Baby Oil Marketers Led by J & J, Too
Table 5-8: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Oils Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
J & J Tops in Ointments/Creams
Table 5-9: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Ointments/Creams Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Petroleum Jelly: Unilever/Vaseline Rivaled by Private Label
Table 5-10: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Petroleum Jelly Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
J & J Maintains Leading Share of Baby Powder Sales
Table 5-11: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Powder Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
J & J Still a Baby Shampoo Powerhouse
Table 5-12: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Shampoo Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
J & J Unstoppable in Baby Soap
Table 5-13: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Soap Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Feeding Accessories
Energizer/Playtex Still Ahead of the Pack
Table 5-14: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Nursing/Feeding Accessories Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Play & Discovery Toys
Kids II Disarms Mattel
Table 5-15: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Play and Discovery Infant Toys Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2007-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Pacifiers/Teethers
Jarden (formerly Nestle), Its Gerber Brand Lead in Smallest Babycare Category
Table 5-16: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Pacifiers/Teethers (Soothing Accessories) Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
CHAPTER 6: THE COMPETITIVE SITUATION
Highlights
The Competitive Situation
Important Mergers, Acquisitions, Spin-Offs, Divestments
2010
2008
2007
2006
Eight Marketers Profiled
Competitive Profile: Energizer Holdings, Inc./Playtex
Net Sales Roll Back to $4.0 Billion in FY2009
Outlook for 2010 Is Fairly Good
Energizer Buys Playtex, the U.S. Leader in Feeding Accessories
Energizer’s Other Consumer Brands
Competitive Profile: Jarden Corporation/NUK/Gerber
Net Sales Finish 2009 Down, at $5.2 Billion
NUK’s Maze of Ownership Brings It to U.S.
Jarden Buys a Whole Corral of Babycare Brands
Other Jarden Brands
Competitive Profile: Johnson & Johnson
Sales Slip to $61.9 Billion in 2009
J & J the Baby Bodycare Dominator
J & J Jazzes Brand Roster, Ensures Retail Leverage for Older Babycare Marques
Other Famous J & J Brands
Competitive Profile: Kimberly-Clark Corporation
K-C’s Net Sales Retreat to $19.1 Billion in 2009
Foreign Operations Could Soon Account for Half of Sales
K-C Slashes Operating Expenses, Ups Marketing Budget
Huggies: Positioned on Fun, Natural Elements, Licenses
Other K-C Brands
Competitive Profile: The Procter & Gamble Co.
Net Sales Slip to $79.0 Billion in Fiscal 2009
Outlook for Fiscal 2010: Net Sales Could Return to $83.0 Billion
Almost a Third of Sales Transacted in Developing Countries
P & G’s Stable of 22 Billion-Dollar Brands
P & G’s Babycare Stance: A Lean, But Formidable, Array of Products
Bye Bye, Bibsters
Pampers Dry Max Introduced Under Future Friendly Program
P & G Plans to Invade White Space, Take Risks Again
Three Marketers to Watch
Kid Brands, Inc
Net Sales in Steady Growth to $243.9 Million in 2009
A Company Rebuilt for Attack on Baby Products Markets
Kid’s Strategies for the Future
Naterra International, Inc
Sales Estimated at $10.0 Million-Plus
Naterra’s History Leads to One Big Opportunity - Baby Magic
Seventh Generation, Inc
Sales Estimated at $150.0 Million or More
An Activist’s Company Greens a Whole Industry - What Then?
Babycare Supplies Product Trends
Over 150 New Babycare Intros in U.S., in June 2008-June 2010
Bath & Shower Products Lead Babycare Intros
Table 6-1: U.S. Introductions of Babycare Supplies Products, by Share of Category Introductions, and by Numbers of SKUs, June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
Just 10 New Disposable Diaper Products, in 51 SKUs
Table 6-2: U.S. Introductions of Disposable Diapers, by Companies' Shares of Introductions, and by Numbers of SKUs, June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
“Natural,” “Organic” the Most Popular Claims/Tags
Table 6-3: U.S. Introductions of Babycare Supplies, by Claims/Tags on Labels (Share and Numbers of Reports), June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
“Technology” Leads PLA Classes of Babycare Innovation
Table 6-4: U.S. Introductions of Babycare Supplies, by Class of Innovation (Share and Numbers of SKUs), June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
Safeway, K-C, P & G Lead Babycare Supplies Intros
Table 6-5: U.S. Introductions of Babycare Supplies, by Company (Share and Numbers of SKUs), June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
Consumer Advertising and Promotion
The Romance of Motherhood
...But Some Ads Are Just Product Shots
Enhancing Development
The Experiential - You know - Talking Babies!
Natural/Organic/Green Themes
Sources for Ad Examples
Consumer Promos
Couponing
Sweepstakes
Contests
Charitable Tie-Ins Large and Small
Advice on Parenting
CHAPTER 7: DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL
Highlights
Distribution
Babycare Supplies Move Along DSD, Four-Step, and Direct Sales Paths
Mass Retail Channels Control Three Quarters of Babycare Supplies $
Table 7-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Retail Channel, 2007-2009
At the Retail Level
In Supermarkets, Margins Slip as Shoppers Seek Value Brands
Table 7-2: Supermarket Retailers’ Average Gross Profit Margins on Babycare Supplies and Baby Foods, by Five-Point Ranges, 2005-2009
Powerful Chains Insist on BPA-Free Products
Retailers’ Local Charitable Tie-Ins
E-tailer Profile: Quidsi, Inc./Diapers.com
Diapers.com May Be Breaking $100.0 Million Sales Mark in 2010
Top-Class Biz Duo Grow Diapers.com Lightning Fast
Sorry You Had a Problem
The Baby Registry
Retailer Profile: Toys “R” Us, Inc./Babies “R” Us
Sales of Almost $13.6 Billion in 2009
TRU Going Public for the Second Time
TRU’s History Is Intertwined with BRU’s - Since 1996
BRU: A Balanced Product Mix Includes a New Private Label
CHAPTER 8: THE CONSUMER
Highlights
The U.S. Baby Scene: Births and Birth Rates
After Boomlet of 2002-2008, Births Slip Below 4.2 Million in 2009
Table 8-1: U.S. Live Births, by Number, and by Crude, General Fertility, and Total Fertility Birth Rates, 1940-2009
Whites Command Live Births, Hispanic Baby Force Strengthens
Table 8-2: Number of U.S. Live Births, by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1940-2009
“The Crude” Sank to 13.7 in 2009 - A New Low
Table 8-3: U.S. Crude Birth Rate, by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1940-2009 (Births per Thousand of Overall Population)
Hispanics Have Highest Fertility Rate - By Far
Table 8-4: U.S. Fertility Rate, 1940-2009 (Births per Thousand Women Age 15-44)
Total Fertility Rate Stable in the First Decade of This Millennium
About Experian Simmons Information
What It Is
How to Use It
The Overall Gauge
Marketing Regions Defined
Northeast
East Central
West Central
Southeast
Southwest
Pacific
Table 8-5: Projections of Number and Share of U.S. Households, by Demographic Factor, 2009 (Households in Thousands)
Households With Kids or Expectant Mothers
Core Babycare Supplies Base is 7.3 Million Households with Kids . 232
Table 8-6: Numbers of Children in U.S. Households, by Individual Year of Age, Through Age Five, 2009 (Households in Thousands)
Over 3.2 Million Households with Expectant Mothers
“Expectant” Households: Youth, Minorities, Plus Kids Already There...
Table 8-7: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households with Pregnant Women, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
“We Had a Baby!”/“We’re Gonna Have a Baby!”
Grandma and Grandpa, the Gift-Givers
Table 8-8: Events of Life Experienced or About to Be Experienced in One's Household, 2007 (In Thousands)
Psychographics and Media
Today’s Adults Indulge Kids, Look for Value, Think Green
On Kids
On Shopping...
On Green-Consciousness...
Table 8-9: Households' Survey Respondents' Strong Agreement With 16 Statements of Attitude or Opinion, 2009 (In Thousands)
Child-Rearing Mags Have Net Readership of 15.2 Million Adults
Table 8-10: Household Readership of Magazines About Child-Rearing, 2005-2009 (Households in Thousands, in Recent 6 Months)
The Disposable Diapers/Training Pants User-Household
Over 13.3 Million Households Use Disposable Diapers
Over 3.7 Million Households Use 4-6 Diapers Per Day
Table 8-11: Household Use of Disposable Diapers and Training Pants, by Number Used Daily, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands, in Recent 6 Months)
Dipe Types: Developmental Outsells Thin
Youth/Middle-Age, Little/Lots of Education Suggest Multiple User-Household Profiles for Disposable Diapers
Table 8-12: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Disposable Diapers/Training Pants, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 6 Months)
Huggies Used in More Households Than Pampers
Table 8-13: Household Use of Disposable Diapers and Training Pants, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
The Baby Bodycare Products User-Household
Baby Oil or Lotion User-Households Are 31.7 Million Strong
Baby Oil/Lotion Use Skews to Less Affluent Lifestyles
Table 8-14: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby Oil/Lotion, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Johnson’s Baby Oil/Lotion the Traditional Fave
Table 8-15: Household Use of Baby Oil and Lotion, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
Baby Shampoo Used in Nearly a Quarter of U.S. Households
Baby Shampoo Households Seen as Affluent, Not Affluent, Ethnic, and Renters
Table 8-16: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby/Kids' Shampoo, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Johnson’s Baby Shampoo Used in 12.3 Million Households
Table 8-17: Household Use of Baby and Children's Shampoo, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
More Than 21.8 Million Households Use Baby Wash/Bath Products
For Baby Wash: Again, Features of Both Affluence and Struggle
Table 8-18: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby Wash/Bath Products, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Johnson’s Baby Wash Widens Lead in Terms of User-Households
Table 8-19: Household Use of Baby Wash and Bath Products, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
Baby Powder Has 40.0 Million User-Households
Baby Powder Households Skew Decidedly Less Affluent
Table 8-20: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby Powder, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Johnson’s Baby Powder is in 19.9 Million Households
Table 8-21: Household Use of Baby Powder, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
The Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes User-Household
Nearly 36.1 Million Households Use Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes
Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes Use Skews Affluent...Or Maybe Less Affluent?
Table 8-22: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Huggies Is Top Baby Wipe/Moist Towelette, Used in 11.0 Million Households
Table 8-23: Household Use of Baby Wipes and Moist Towelettes, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
The Play & Discovery (Infant) Toys User-Household
Over 15.4 Million Households Use Toys for Youngest Kids
Majority of Play & Discovery Purchaser-Households Spend Under $50
Table 8-24: Household Expenditure for Play & Discovery (Infant) Toys, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands, in Recent 12 Months)
Play & Discovery Toy Households Skew to Affluence, Higher Education
Table 8-25: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Play & Discovery (Infant) Toys, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Household Patronage of Retail Store Chains
Walmart Leads Patronage with 77.9 Million Households
Walmart Also Leads Toy Shopper-Households, with 14.1 Million
Table 8-26: Household Patronage of Retail Store Chains, 2009 (Households in Thousands)
APPENDIX: SELECTED COMPANY ADDRESSES
Highlights
Market Definition: Six Product Categories
Birth Rates Explained
Artificial Colors Are Only Ingredients Tested by FDA
Truth and Safety
Finally, ANSI Standards for Organic Personal Care Products
Product and Tactical Hot Spots
Babycare Supplies Plod to $7.1 Billion in 2005-2009
Market Surprisingly Out of Sync with Birth and Inflation Rates
Table 1-1: U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, 2005-2009 (In Millions)
Disposable Diapers Still Dominant Babycare Product
Table 1-2: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2005-2009
Babycare Supplies Market to Reach $8.5 Billion in 2015
Table 1-3: Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2009-2015 (In Millions)
Ethnic Minorities Driving U.S. Birth Rates
A Cycle of Commoditization and Decommoditization
Yoga Moms - Do They Still Exist?
Yoga Moms 2 and 3
Busy Mothers Buying CPG via Direct Sales Media
Of Hundreds of Babycare Supplies Marketers, Just 107 Significant in Mass
Important Mergers, Acquisitions, Spin-Offs, Divestments
2010
2008
2007
2006
Core Babycare Supplies Base is 7.3 Million Households with Kids
Over 3.2 Million Households with Expectant Mothers
“Expectant” Households: Youth, Minorities, Plus Kids Already There...
“We Had a Baby!”/“We’re Gonna Have a Baby!”
Grandma and Grandpa, the Gift-Givers
CHAPTER 2: THE PRODUCTS
Highlights
Introduction
Market Definition
Diapers to Pacifiers: Six Product Categories
Some Overlap with Toddlers’ and Adults’ Products
Terms Defined
Birth Rate
Carbon Footprint
Cosmeceutical
Direct
Ethnic
Fair Trade
Green
HBC
Infants/Toddlers/Preschoolers
“Market” versus “Category” versus “Segment”
Mass Retail Channel(s)
“Natural” versus “Organic”
Prestige and Pop Prestige
SKU
Specialty
Sustainable (also, Renewable)
Methodology
The Products
Six Main Babycare Product Categories
Category 1: Disposable Diapers/Training Pants
Category 2: Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes
Category 3: Baby Bodycare Products
Soap/Bath Products
Creams/Ointments
Powder
Lotions
Petroleum Jelly (Petrolatum)
Shampoo
Oils
Category 4: Feeding Accessories
Category 5: Play and Discovery (Infant) Toys
Category 6: Pacifiers/Teethers (a.k.a., Soothing Accessories)
Babycare Supplies That Are Used by Adults
Related Product Markets
Eight Controversial Ingredients
Eight Among Thousands - But Few Ingredients Are Tested...
Bisphenol-A (BPA)
Parabens
Phthalates
Polypropylene (Polypropene)
Propylene Glycol
Sodium Polyacrylate (Super-Absorbent Polymer, or SAP)
Sodium Lauryl Sulfate and Sodium Laureth Sulfate (SLFs)
Talc
Regulation
Babycare Supplies Are Minimally Regulated
The Subject Was Diapers
Artificial Colors Are Only Ingredients Tested by FDA
Truth and Safety
Cosmetics versus Drugs, and the FTC
The Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act of 2008 (CPSIA)
The USDA and FTC Play Limited Roles
Still in the Works: The Safe Baby Products Act
...And the Colorado Safe Personal Care Products Act
Finally, ANSI Standards for Organic Personal Care Products
CHAPTER 3: INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Highlights
The Key Babycare Supplies Tactic: “Add Value, Stupid!”
Make Mine Natural! - No, Green! - No, Organic! - No, Natural!
From 2010 On, Expect Lots of Humorous Babycare Supplies Ads
Product and Tactical Hot Spots
CHAPTER 4: THE MARKET
Highlights
Market Size and Growth
Babycare Supplies Plod to $7.1 Billion in 2005-2009
Market Surprisingly Out of Sync with Birth and Inflation Rates
Table 4-1: U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2005-2009 (In Millions)
Disposable Diapers Struggle to Attain $4.1 Billion
Training Pants Fall Down
Disposable Diaper Unit-Consumption Leaps Up to 40.2 Billion
Wipes/Towelettes in Decent Progress to $1.2 Billion
Wipes Still Overpower Towelettes
Baby Bodycare Retains Promise, Reaches $712.0 Million
In Mass, Baby Bodycare Segments Led by Soap and Ointments
Table 4-2: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Bodycare Products in Mass Retail Channels (Supermarkets, Chain Drugstores, and Mass Merchandise Outlets), by Product Segment, 2001-2009 (Dollars in Thousands)
Feeding Accessories Climb to $593.0 Million
Play & Discovery Toys Soar, Then Plunge Back to $310.0 Million
Pacifiers/Teethers Slip to $108.0 Million
Market Composition
Disposable Diapers Still Dominant Babycare Product
Table 4-3: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2005-2009 (In Millions)
...And Mass Retail Channel Still Rules
Table 4-4: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Retail Channel, 2007-2009
In Five of Six Categories, Price Indices for Mass Rise
Table 4-5: U.S. Retail Dollar Sales, Unit Volume, and Average Price of Babycare Supplies, in Mass Channels (Supermarkets, Chain Drugstores, Mass Merchandisers), Price-Indexed and by Category, 2005-2009 (In Millions)
Retail Value of Natural/Organic Babycare Supplies Could Be $350.0 Million
Regionality of Sales
Northeast: Powder and Toys Stand Out
Central: Biggest Numbers, But Skews Only to Disposable Diapers, Toys
Southeast: Adults Skew Use to Baby Oil and Powder
Southwest: Wipes, Baby Shampoo Particularly Favored
Pacific: Skews to Dipes, Wipes, Shampoo, and Toys
Table 4-6: Use of Babycare Supplies, by Category and Marketing Region, 2009 (Households, in Thousands)
Factors in Future Growth
An Evergreen, But Ever-Limited Pool of Babies
Population Growth Is a Positive Factor
Babies Are an Evergreen Sector - Another Positive...
Number of U.S. Live Births Changes Very Little
Marketing Strategies Create Another Disconnect
Four Kinds of Birth Rates, Four Perspectives on Population Growth
Absolute Numbers of Live Births Peaked in 2008
Crude Birth Rate
General Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rate
Table 4-7: U.S. Live Births, by Number, and by Crude, General Fertility, and Total Fertility Birth Rates, 1940-2009
Ethnic Minorities Driving U.S. Birth Rates
A Cycle of Commoditization and Decommoditization
New Channel Choices, Promo Media Enhance Babycare Positioning
Consumers’ Mild Commitment to Trading Down
Recession’s Legacy: Lost Babycare Brands Can’t Inspire Shoppers
Destocking Opens Door to Private and Controlled Labels
...So Cut Wholesale Prices!
...Sorry, But Materials Costs Are Over the Moon!
Natural/Organic/Green Trends a Big Positive
Prestige Will Regain “Oomph”
Yoga Moms - Do They Still Exist?
Yoga Moms 2 and 3
Busy Mothers Buying CPG via Direct Sales Media
Projected Sales
Babycare Supplies Market to Reach $8.5 Billion in 2015
Disposable Diapers to Sleepcrawl to $4.7 Billion
Wipes/Towelettes to Skip Lightly to $1.5 Billion
Baby Bodycare to Rise to $986.0 Million
Feeding Accessories in O.K. Progress to $750.0 Million
Play & Discovery Toys to Recover Lost Ground, Ascend to $408.0 Million
Pacifiers/Teethers Will Slog on Up to $143.0 Million
Table 4-8: Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Category, 2009-2015 (In Millions)
CHAPTER 5: THE MARKETERS
Highlights
The Marketers
Of Hundreds of Babycare Supplies Marketers, Just 107 Significant in Mass
Competition in Mass Getting Tougher
Table 5-1: Number of Significant Mass Marketers of Babycare Supplies, by Category/Segment, 2004-2009
Table of Marketers and Brands
Table 5-2: Leading or Noteworthy Marketers of Babycare Supplies, and Their Representative Brands, 2010
Marketer and Brand Share: Disposable Diapers/Training Pants
P & G and K-C Have Choke-Hold on Disposable Diaper Segment
Table 5-3: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Disposable Diapers (Not Including Training Pants) Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
K-C Rules Training Pants
Table 5-4: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Disposable Training Pants Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes
K-C, P& G Lead in Baby Wipes; Private Label Steals Share
Table 5-5: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Wipes Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
In Towelettes, K-C Outruns Energizer Bunny
Table 5-6: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Moist Towelettes Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Baby Bodycare Products
J & J Is King in Baby Bodycare
Four of Every Five Baby Lotion Bucks Spent on J & J Brands
Table 5-7: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Lotions Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Baby Oil Marketers Led by J & J, Too
Table 5-8: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Oils Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
J & J Tops in Ointments/Creams
Table 5-9: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Ointments/Creams Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Petroleum Jelly: Unilever/Vaseline Rivaled by Private Label
Table 5-10: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Petroleum Jelly Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
J & J Maintains Leading Share of Baby Powder Sales
Table 5-11: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Powder Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
J & J Still a Baby Shampoo Powerhouse
Table 5-12: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Shampoo Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
J & J Unstoppable in Baby Soap
Table 5-13: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Baby Soap Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Feeding Accessories
Energizer/Playtex Still Ahead of the Pack
Table 5-14: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Nursing/Feeding Accessories Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Play & Discovery Toys
Kids II Disarms Mattel
Table 5-15: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Play and Discovery Infant Toys Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2007-2009
Marketer and Brand Share: Pacifiers/Teethers
Jarden (formerly Nestle), Its Gerber Brand Lead in Smallest Babycare Category
Table 5-16: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Pacifiers/Teethers (Soothing Accessories) Through Mass Retail Channels, by Marketer and Brand, 2004-2009
CHAPTER 6: THE COMPETITIVE SITUATION
Highlights
The Competitive Situation
Important Mergers, Acquisitions, Spin-Offs, Divestments
2010
2008
2007
2006
Eight Marketers Profiled
Competitive Profile: Energizer Holdings, Inc./Playtex
Net Sales Roll Back to $4.0 Billion in FY2009
Outlook for 2010 Is Fairly Good
Energizer Buys Playtex, the U.S. Leader in Feeding Accessories
Energizer’s Other Consumer Brands
Competitive Profile: Jarden Corporation/NUK/Gerber
Net Sales Finish 2009 Down, at $5.2 Billion
NUK’s Maze of Ownership Brings It to U.S.
Jarden Buys a Whole Corral of Babycare Brands
Other Jarden Brands
Competitive Profile: Johnson & Johnson
Sales Slip to $61.9 Billion in 2009
J & J the Baby Bodycare Dominator
J & J Jazzes Brand Roster, Ensures Retail Leverage for Older Babycare Marques
Other Famous J & J Brands
Competitive Profile: Kimberly-Clark Corporation
K-C’s Net Sales Retreat to $19.1 Billion in 2009
Foreign Operations Could Soon Account for Half of Sales
K-C Slashes Operating Expenses, Ups Marketing Budget
Huggies: Positioned on Fun, Natural Elements, Licenses
Other K-C Brands
Competitive Profile: The Procter & Gamble Co.
Net Sales Slip to $79.0 Billion in Fiscal 2009
Outlook for Fiscal 2010: Net Sales Could Return to $83.0 Billion
Almost a Third of Sales Transacted in Developing Countries
P & G’s Stable of 22 Billion-Dollar Brands
P & G’s Babycare Stance: A Lean, But Formidable, Array of Products
Bye Bye, Bibsters
Pampers Dry Max Introduced Under Future Friendly Program
P & G Plans to Invade White Space, Take Risks Again
Three Marketers to Watch
Kid Brands, Inc
Net Sales in Steady Growth to $243.9 Million in 2009
A Company Rebuilt for Attack on Baby Products Markets
Kid’s Strategies for the Future
Naterra International, Inc
Sales Estimated at $10.0 Million-Plus
Naterra’s History Leads to One Big Opportunity - Baby Magic
Seventh Generation, Inc
Sales Estimated at $150.0 Million or More
An Activist’s Company Greens a Whole Industry - What Then?
Babycare Supplies Product Trends
Over 150 New Babycare Intros in U.S., in June 2008-June 2010
Bath & Shower Products Lead Babycare Intros
Table 6-1: U.S. Introductions of Babycare Supplies Products, by Share of Category Introductions, and by Numbers of SKUs, June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
Just 10 New Disposable Diaper Products, in 51 SKUs
Table 6-2: U.S. Introductions of Disposable Diapers, by Companies' Shares of Introductions, and by Numbers of SKUs, June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
“Natural,” “Organic” the Most Popular Claims/Tags
Table 6-3: U.S. Introductions of Babycare Supplies, by Claims/Tags on Labels (Share and Numbers of Reports), June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
“Technology” Leads PLA Classes of Babycare Innovation
Table 6-4: U.S. Introductions of Babycare Supplies, by Class of Innovation (Share and Numbers of SKUs), June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
Safeway, K-C, P & G Lead Babycare Supplies Intros
Table 6-5: U.S. Introductions of Babycare Supplies, by Company (Share and Numbers of SKUs), June 8, 2008-June 8, 2010
Consumer Advertising and Promotion
The Romance of Motherhood
...But Some Ads Are Just Product Shots
Enhancing Development
The Experiential - You know - Talking Babies!
Natural/Organic/Green Themes
Sources for Ad Examples
Consumer Promos
Couponing
Sweepstakes
Contests
Charitable Tie-Ins Large and Small
Advice on Parenting
CHAPTER 7: DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL
Highlights
Distribution
Babycare Supplies Move Along DSD, Four-Step, and Direct Sales Paths
Mass Retail Channels Control Three Quarters of Babycare Supplies $
Table 7-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Babycare Supplies, by Retail Channel, 2007-2009
At the Retail Level
In Supermarkets, Margins Slip as Shoppers Seek Value Brands
Table 7-2: Supermarket Retailers’ Average Gross Profit Margins on Babycare Supplies and Baby Foods, by Five-Point Ranges, 2005-2009
Powerful Chains Insist on BPA-Free Products
Retailers’ Local Charitable Tie-Ins
E-tailer Profile: Quidsi, Inc./Diapers.com
Diapers.com May Be Breaking $100.0 Million Sales Mark in 2010
Top-Class Biz Duo Grow Diapers.com Lightning Fast
Sorry You Had a Problem
The Baby Registry
Retailer Profile: Toys “R” Us, Inc./Babies “R” Us
Sales of Almost $13.6 Billion in 2009
TRU Going Public for the Second Time
TRU’s History Is Intertwined with BRU’s - Since 1996
BRU: A Balanced Product Mix Includes a New Private Label
CHAPTER 8: THE CONSUMER
Highlights
The U.S. Baby Scene: Births and Birth Rates
After Boomlet of 2002-2008, Births Slip Below 4.2 Million in 2009
Table 8-1: U.S. Live Births, by Number, and by Crude, General Fertility, and Total Fertility Birth Rates, 1940-2009
Whites Command Live Births, Hispanic Baby Force Strengthens
Table 8-2: Number of U.S. Live Births, by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1940-2009
“The Crude” Sank to 13.7 in 2009 - A New Low
Table 8-3: U.S. Crude Birth Rate, by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1940-2009 (Births per Thousand of Overall Population)
Hispanics Have Highest Fertility Rate - By Far
Table 8-4: U.S. Fertility Rate, 1940-2009 (Births per Thousand Women Age 15-44)
Total Fertility Rate Stable in the First Decade of This Millennium
About Experian Simmons Information
What It Is
How to Use It
The Overall Gauge
Marketing Regions Defined
Northeast
East Central
West Central
Southeast
Southwest
Pacific
Table 8-5: Projections of Number and Share of U.S. Households, by Demographic Factor, 2009 (Households in Thousands)
Households With Kids or Expectant Mothers
Core Babycare Supplies Base is 7.3 Million Households with Kids . 232
Table 8-6: Numbers of Children in U.S. Households, by Individual Year of Age, Through Age Five, 2009 (Households in Thousands)
Over 3.2 Million Households with Expectant Mothers
“Expectant” Households: Youth, Minorities, Plus Kids Already There...
Table 8-7: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households with Pregnant Women, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
“We Had a Baby!”/“We’re Gonna Have a Baby!”
Grandma and Grandpa, the Gift-Givers
Table 8-8: Events of Life Experienced or About to Be Experienced in One's Household, 2007 (In Thousands)
Psychographics and Media
Today’s Adults Indulge Kids, Look for Value, Think Green
On Kids
On Shopping...
On Green-Consciousness...
Table 8-9: Households' Survey Respondents' Strong Agreement With 16 Statements of Attitude or Opinion, 2009 (In Thousands)
Child-Rearing Mags Have Net Readership of 15.2 Million Adults
Table 8-10: Household Readership of Magazines About Child-Rearing, 2005-2009 (Households in Thousands, in Recent 6 Months)
The Disposable Diapers/Training Pants User-Household
Over 13.3 Million Households Use Disposable Diapers
Over 3.7 Million Households Use 4-6 Diapers Per Day
Table 8-11: Household Use of Disposable Diapers and Training Pants, by Number Used Daily, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands, in Recent 6 Months)
Dipe Types: Developmental Outsells Thin
Youth/Middle-Age, Little/Lots of Education Suggest Multiple User-Household Profiles for Disposable Diapers
Table 8-12: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Disposable Diapers/Training Pants, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 6 Months)
Huggies Used in More Households Than Pampers
Table 8-13: Household Use of Disposable Diapers and Training Pants, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
The Baby Bodycare Products User-Household
Baby Oil or Lotion User-Households Are 31.7 Million Strong
Baby Oil/Lotion Use Skews to Less Affluent Lifestyles
Table 8-14: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby Oil/Lotion, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Johnson’s Baby Oil/Lotion the Traditional Fave
Table 8-15: Household Use of Baby Oil and Lotion, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
Baby Shampoo Used in Nearly a Quarter of U.S. Households
Baby Shampoo Households Seen as Affluent, Not Affluent, Ethnic, and Renters
Table 8-16: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby/Kids' Shampoo, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Johnson’s Baby Shampoo Used in 12.3 Million Households
Table 8-17: Household Use of Baby and Children's Shampoo, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
More Than 21.8 Million Households Use Baby Wash/Bath Products
For Baby Wash: Again, Features of Both Affluence and Struggle
Table 8-18: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby Wash/Bath Products, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Johnson’s Baby Wash Widens Lead in Terms of User-Households
Table 8-19: Household Use of Baby Wash and Bath Products, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
Baby Powder Has 40.0 Million User-Households
Baby Powder Households Skew Decidedly Less Affluent
Table 8-20: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby Powder, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Johnson’s Baby Powder is in 19.9 Million Households
Table 8-21: Household Use of Baby Powder, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
The Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes User-Household
Nearly 36.1 Million Households Use Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes
Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes Use Skews Affluent...Or Maybe Less Affluent?
Table 8-22: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Baby Wipes/Moist Towelettes, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Huggies Is Top Baby Wipe/Moist Towelette, Used in 11.0 Million Households
Table 8-23: Household Use of Baby Wipes and Moist Towelettes, by Brand, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands)
The Play & Discovery (Infant) Toys User-Household
Over 15.4 Million Households Use Toys for Youngest Kids
Majority of Play & Discovery Purchaser-Households Spend Under $50
Table 8-24: Household Expenditure for Play & Discovery (Infant) Toys, 2007-2009 (Households in Thousands, in Recent 12 Months)
Play & Discovery Toy Households Skew to Affluence, Higher Education
Table 8-25: Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Households Using Play & Discovery (Infant) Toys, 2009 (Households in Thousands; Recent 12 Months)
Household Patronage of Retail Store Chains
Walmart Leads Patronage with 77.9 Million Households
Walmart Also Leads Toy Shopper-Households, with 14.1 Million
Table 8-26: Household Patronage of Retail Store Chains, 2009 (Households in Thousands)
APPENDIX: SELECTED COMPANY ADDRESSES
