Sanofi Q1-2012 results shines on Lantus outperformance, but we see risk to their medium term guidance
Sanofi Q1-2012 results shines on Lantus outperformance, but we remain concerned on their medium term guidance
SAN posted Q1-2012 results, with sales and business EPS growing 7% and 7.2% (CER) respectively. The sales growth was 3% above our estimates driven by a very strong performance of Lantus. Sales in China grew 24.1%, primarily driven by growth from Lantus and Plavix. SAN has reiterated its guidance for the year, and we expect SAN to end the year at the upper end of the guidance (5.85).
Important Catalysts to watch out this year
1. Outcome data from ORIGIN trial – A positive outcome would strengthen Lantus positioning vis-à-vis competition. An interim analysis did not show cancer risk.
2. 4th August 2012, PDUFA on Zaltrap in treatment failure metastatic colorectal cancer – We forecast $250m in peak sales from this indication and potential threat from a label expansion for Avastin in colorectal cancer as treatment through multiple lines.
We see potential risk to SAN achieving its medium term guidance,
We see potential risk to Lovenox sales growth in Europe from Xarelto / generic copies, slowdown in Lantus sales with launch of IdegLira, Insulin Degludec, and launch of weekly GLP-1’s, Brilinta launch in China, should also impact Plavix growth and Lemtrada may face a delay in approval.
SAN posted Q1-2012 results, with sales and business EPS growing 7% and 7.2% (CER) respectively. The sales growth was 3% above our estimates driven by a very strong performance of Lantus. Sales in China grew 24.1%, primarily driven by growth from Lantus and Plavix. SAN has reiterated its guidance for the year, and we expect SAN to end the year at the upper end of the guidance (5.85).
Important Catalysts to watch out this year
1. Outcome data from ORIGIN trial – A positive outcome would strengthen Lantus positioning vis-à-vis competition. An interim analysis did not show cancer risk.
2. 4th August 2012, PDUFA on Zaltrap in treatment failure metastatic colorectal cancer – We forecast $250m in peak sales from this indication and potential threat from a label expansion for Avastin in colorectal cancer as treatment through multiple lines.
We see potential risk to SAN achieving its medium term guidance,
We see potential risk to Lovenox sales growth in Europe from Xarelto / generic copies, slowdown in Lantus sales with launch of IdegLira, Insulin Degludec, and launch of weekly GLP-1’s, Brilinta launch in China, should also impact Plavix growth and Lemtrada may face a delay in approval.
COMPANIES MENTIONED
SANOFI
SANOFI
