BIOGEN IDEC - Restructuring of Tysabri Collaboration with ELAN - A Good Strategic Move!
Biogen Idec (BIIB) has acquired full rights to Tysabri from Elan for an upfront payment of $3.25b and a double-digit tiered royalty structure. Integrating this in our model the net positive impact to NPV/s of Tysabri is $9.4 (current NPV/s of Tysabri: $40 vs. previous NPV/S: $17 and cash outflow of $13.6). The revised FY2013, total revenue (pro-forma basis) is $6.4b vs. previous of $5.8b) and EPS will be accretive by $0.88 (current EPS: $8.11). We expect robust growth for BIIB in 2013 with the approval and launch of TECFIDERA (BG-12, dimethyl fumerate, under review with FDA & EMEA, est. PDUFA: late Mar. 2013, peak sales potential WW – $2.5b by 2018) and approval of Hemophilia products – rFVIIIFc (PR, Hemophilia A) and rFIXFc (R, Hemophilia B) by YE13.
